Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal

The terrorists of Hamas have accepted part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace proposal. First, they are ready to release their remaining hostages, and second, they agree to relinquish power in Gaza – though only in favor of an independent Palestinian leadership.

As a result, Israel has announced that it will scale back its operations in Gaza to a “minimum,” conducting only defensive missions in the area – something Trump himself encouraged them to do. Thus, with their statement, Hamas fighters have at least gained a brief respite.

At the same time, it is clear that Hamas has not committed to all parts of Trump’s peace plan. One particularly crucial element is the disarmament – or demilitarization – of this terrorist organization.

It remains to be seen how the situation in Gaza and the entire Holy Land will develop from here. In other words, will Hamas manage to evade the demands placed upon it – and if not, will hostilities with Israel resume immediately after the release of the hostages?

This also gives Hamas some room to maneuver; it might seek to delay the handover of hostages in order to reorganize and strengthen its military operations. And if that happens, one must ask: at what point will Israel and Trump lose their patience?

All in all, it would of course be best if Hamas accepted all the terms of the agreement. On the other hand, the most important thing for everyone – not least for ordinary Palestinians in Gaza – would be Hamas’s disarmament, which would in any case put an end to the fighting in the region.

However, I suspect that this is the last condition on Trump’s list that Hamas would ever agree to – if it agrees at all. And therefore, it remains to be seen whether this morning’s optimism will turn out to be merely an illusion, one that shatters as soon as we return to Gaza’s grim reality and the distorted worldview of the terrorists who sustain it.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Is Cable Cutting a Crime Without Punishment?

Finland detained a vessel named Eagle S, which had dragged its anchor across the seabed and damaged submarine cables in the Baltic Sea. The investigation took some time, after which the evidence was submitted to a Finnish district court, i.e., the lowest judicial instance.

Instead of assessing the criminal liability of the act and delivering a verdict to those found guilty, the district court ruled that it had no jurisdiction to decide in such a criminal case. Therefore, the matter should be dealt with either in the courts of the crew’s home countries or in the courts of the flag state of the Eagle S. In other words, the case would fall under the jurisdiction of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India.

However, Professor Ulla Tapaninen, a maritime transport expert at Tallinn University of Technology, has noted that “district courts often prefer to move complex cases up to higher judicial levels.” For this reason, she argues it is reasonable that the Eagle S case would be escalated from the district court to the court of appeal, which is one step higher in the judicial hierarchy.

In other words, the Finnish professor at the Estonian university assumes that the legal proceedings will continue in Finland. This raises the question: if that happens, will the court of appeal consider itself competent—contrary to the district court’s conclusion—to convict the crew of the Eagle S?

And if that is the case, who will bear the costs? The Finnish taxpayer, who has already been burdened with bills amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros?

And what would happen after such a farce? Would the case then be transferred to the courts of the Cook Islands, Georgia, or India—or would the legal consequences of the damage caused by the Eagle S to the submarine cables ultimately remain unaddressed?

And furthermore, if that is the case, does it mean that in the future the submarine cables running along the seabed of the Baltic Sea and other seas may be cut at will and without consequences?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders
Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Just Another Case of Multiculturality in Manchester, UK

A terrorist attack has been carried out at a synagogue in Manchester, UK. The suspected perpetrator was a bald man with a big black beard.

There is nothing particularly unusual about the case, since recent years have shown that as multiculturalism increases, the number of terrorist incidents has also risen throughout Europe. The only strange thing is that the majority of the native population in each country seems to accept the situation without much protest.

That is why it will be interesting to see what the future of an increasingly multicultural Europe will look like. At this stage, one can only hope for the best, but fear the worst. 

And vote in elections to ensure that Europe, despite everything, will remain European—that is, composed of democratic states that respect human rights, and where the violence caused by multiculturalism can somehow be rooted out. If it cannot be achieved by good means, then other measures must be used—measures that will suffice.

It seems this is also the way of thinking in Britain, where Reform UK has risen to become by far the most popular party. One can only hope that if—and when—it wins the next parliamentary elections, it will use the mandate it receives from the people effectively. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians
Multiple Stabbings Reported in Tampere, Finland
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point

Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine has sought to undermine Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” by bringing the war into Russians’ homes, namely by destroying infrastructure. As a result, there are occasional shortages of fuel for cars, and home heating does not always function.

The Ukrainians’ tactic seems sound in itself, but Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party), former Chief of Intelligence at the Finnish Defence Command and now a Member of the European Parliament, reminded of one problem. According to him, “in a dictatorship, the risk of going out into the streets is great, because if you are not shot, you will spend decades in a prison camp.”

For this reason, Russians can endure the kind of misery that would lead to massive riots in Western countries. The choice is easy, since—as Toveri put it—“the alternative is a bullet in the forehead.”

It remains to be seen what the winter will bring. In the best-case scenario, heating failures and cold homes will eventually lead to a popular uprising and the collapse of Putin’s regime—along with peace for Ukraine. In the worst case, Russians will direct their anger toward Ukraine, and the people will unite more firmly than ever behind Putin’s “special operation.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Finland May Recognize Palestine as an Independent State

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) stated today that Finland is ready to recognize an independent Palestine under certain conditions. First of all, the two-state solution must meet both the security needs of Israelis and Palestinians, as well as Palestine’s aspirations for statehood and self-determination. Palestine’s commitment to peaceful coexistence is a central prerequisite for recognition.

In concrete terms, according to Orpo, this means that Hamas or any other group aiming to destroy Israel can have no role in Palestine’s governance or in building its future. It means that Finland will not recognize Palestinian independence unless Palestine is committed to releasing Hamas’s hostages, disarming Hamas, and demilitarizing the Palestinian state. In addition, Palestine must advance its own political reforms.

It remains to be seen when the Palestinians will meet the conditions set by Finland — and by what means Finns will be convinced that recognition is timely. I won’t be holding my breath.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?
When Should We Recognize the Independence of Palestine?

Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons. According to the U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, there are no prohibited areas.

So now is a good time to guess where Ukraine will strike first. Could the target even be the Kremlin in Moscow? Or some distant, particularly significant arms factory or oil refinery? Or perhaps St. Petersburg — the former capital of the Russian tsars — which is actually quite close to Finland?

If I had to bet, I’d put my money on a fairly close target: namely the Crimean Bridge, the destruction of which would have major strategic significance in the ongoing war.

I don’t have any inside information, so after writing this I’ll be waiting eagerly for tomorrow’s news from Ukraine. Hopefully it will be good.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?

Last night, Russia struck with great force against civilians in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. It remains to be seen, however, how this will affect U.S. President Donald Trump.

I ask this because President Trump has recently seemed, at long last, to have grown weary of Vladimir Putin and his army’s actions in Ukraine. And now there has been a large-scale attack against Ukrainian civilians – which in itself constitutes a war crime.

For my part, however, I doubt that Trump is still a man capable of putting Putin in his place – that is, of showing Russia to be nothing more than a second-rate vassal state to China. Nor do I think he is the man who could end a war that has already claimed 1,1 million Russian lives, a war which Moscow’s elite continues only to preserve its own grip on power.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?
Donald Trump’s Meeting With Vladimir Putin: The Advice He Needs
Oily Trap for Putin

Two Men Sentenced for Raping Underage Girls

Huge cruise ships operate between Finland and Sweden, serving not only as a means of transportation but also as venues for leisure and entertainment. In other words, they are not just vehicles but massive entertainment centers.

A recent news report states that prison sentences have been handed down as a result of rapes of underage girls that took place on such a ship. Farid Asghar, now 37, was sentenced to 1 year and 2 months in prison for sexual abuse of a child. 

Asghar was also sentenced to 6 years and 6 months in prison for aggravated child rape and aggravated rape committed in a remote parking lot. Altogether, he was sentenced to 7 years and 8 months in prison for sexual offenses. His friend Mujtaba Adam Khan, now 40, was sentenced to 3 years and 7 months in prison.  

As the first names of the convicted indicate, both men are immigrants who came to Finland as humanitarian refugees from developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
Sweden's Rapid Demographic Shift Causes Challenges
Why Is the Case of Issam Rafil, Convicted of a Sexual Offense in Finland, Important for Britain?

Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing

The International Ski Federation (FIS) has decided to test the gender of women participating in competitions. According to its president, Johan Eliasch, “this policy is the cornerstone of our commitment to protect women’s sport, and we are convinced that there is only one fair and transparent way to do that: by relying on science and biological facts.”

I’m eagerly waiting to see whether this statement sparks protests among so-called woke people, who are often heard claiming that humans have a vast number of different genders. Eliasch’s comment, however, seems to rest on the assumption that there are only two: male and female, determined by genes.

On the other hand—in my understanding—the overwhelming majority of people do recognize that while there may be numerous gender identities experienced by individuals, sex is ultimately a fact tied to reproduction. Those who are capable of fathering children are men, and those who are capable of giving birth are women. Everyone else represents exceptions to this rule, not distinct sexes.

As for the issue itself, it should simply be said that the FIS decision is exactly right for women’s sports, since hardly any reasonable spectator would want to see the same kind of farce on the ski tracks as was witnessed in the boxing rings at the Paris Olympics, where male violence against women was legalized and broadcast live on TV.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
UK Supreme Court Distinguishes Between the Rights of Women and Trans Women
Finnish Trans Woman Speaks Out on Transgender Rights in Sports

Is Finnish Broadcasting Company Yle Using Taxpayer Money to Mislead?

In Finland, there is a taxpayer-funded media company – Yleisradio often shortened as Yle – whose purpose is to produce truthful reporting. Unfortunately, the company does not always seem to grasp this fact; instead, its programming often clearly reflects the journalists’ own – green-leftist – political views.

At worst, this manifests itself in perspectives favoring the political left and even in what appears to be the deliberate misleading of the audience. A good example of this was provided by Yle’s recent article titled “Report: Finland has succeeded well in integrating immigrants, only Sweden ahead.”

In reality, according to the article itself, the report in question did not actually address immigrant integration, but rather focused mainly on financial and other support directed at them, as well as, for example, opportunities for newcomers to participate in society. In other words, Finland has not necessarily succeeded in integrating immigrants; instead, it has provided the second most services. This assessment did not include any evaluation of the actual outcome – that is, the success of integration.

Therefore – my dear readers – each of you may consider for yourselves whether the generous funding of Yleisradio with Finnish taxpayers’ money is truly justified. Or is it rather a case of misuse of people’s money?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
An Economist’s Fact-Based Response to Polarizing Tax Claims
Acts of Vandalism Against a Political Party
Orwellian Big Brother monitors journalists of Finland's Public Broadcasting Company Yle

Explosion in Oslo, Norway

It is well known that Swedish society has changed as a result of immigration—from an idyllic "people’s home" into a battlefield of criminal gangs. According to recent news, the same development now appears to be taking place in Norway.

Last night in the capital, Oslo, an explosion occurred. Afterwards, police detonated a hand grenade found at the scene and arrested three underage youths. The incident was linked to a conflict between criminal gangs.

According to Wikipedia, as of 1 January 2024, Norway had 931,081 residents who were immigrants, representing 16.8% of the country’s total population of approximately 5.54 million. In addition, 221,459 people (4.0%) were born in Norway to two foreign-born parents, bringing the total population with an immigrant background to 1,152,540, or 20.8% of the population. The largest immigrant groups by country of birth were Poland (109,654), Ukraine (65,566), Lithuania (42,733), Syria (38,708), Sweden (36,612), Somalia (27,665), Germany (26,860), Eritrea (25,137), the Philippines (24,718) and Iraq (23,603).

It remains to be seen which of these groups, if any, are connected to the Oslo explosions. My own suspicion, however, is that it is not among the three largest immigrant-background groups, but rather involves criminals originating from the Middle East or Africa. That, however, remains to be seen—provided that the media chooses to publish the information.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
Nordic Police Announce: Spread of Gang Violence Cannot Be Stopped
Nordic Nations Unite Against the Growing Threat of Cross-Border Organized Crime

Finland’s Response to Unauthorized Aircraft Entering Its Airspace

On Monday evening, the airports of the capitals of Norway and Denmark – Oslo and Kopenhagen, respectively – were temporarily closed due to drones being flown nearby. It is clear that the drones were not flown by accident, but deliberately. Therefore, it was not hobbyists, but some actor or actors who wanted to cause disturbances.

Personally, I suspect it was the same party that shortly before had flown its fighter jets into Estonian airspace and its drones into Polish airspace. That is why this incident must be taken very seriously.

* * *

Norway also announced today that Russia has violated its airspace three times during the spring and summer. Two of the aircraft that entered the airspace without authorization were fighter jets, while the third was a small transport or passenger plane, mainly operated by Aeroflot.

According to Norway’s foreign minister, “if Russia deliberately challenges the airspace of multiple countries, this is extremely serious.” This is a view worth sharing, but at the same time it should be noted that even the most temperate cat may scratch if provoked enough – and it would be highly irresponsible if the aforementioned party were to cross NATO countries’ threshold of irritation.  

* * *

Today, information was published in Finland about how the country has prepared for the appearance of unauthorized aircraft crossing the border. Such an event cannot go unnoticed, as Finnish airspace is monitored by radar around the clock, and practically all incoming flying objects near Finland’s borders are detected well in advance.

If there is a risk that a device approaching the border might enter Finnish airspace without permission, Finnish fighter jets are dispatched. As the violations of Estonian airspace have shown, this does not take long. For example, Finnish jets arrived faster than the Italian ones, which took off from Estonia itself.

If Finnish airspace is actually violated, radio contact is first attempted with the intruding aircraft, if possible. If that fails, a fighter jet flies alongside the foreign aircraft to get the pilot’s attention, for example by rocking its wings. In addition, the intruder can be warned by firing flares, which demonstrates readiness to use weapons and makes clear that the fighter is armed.

In peacetime, a manned aircraft is only fired upon if authorization is given by the national leadership. However, this does not need to be awaited if a Finnish fighter itself comes under fire, or if the intruding aircraft uses its weapons against another Finnish target. In such cases, the pilot has the right to destroy the aircraft that has crossed the border at their own discretion.

Unmanned aerial vehicles, however, are always shot down immediately if they cross into Finnish airspace. Therefore, long drone flights from across the border, such as those seen in Poland, are not possible in Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Palestine’s Statehood and International Law

Many European states have recognized or are in the process of recognizing the State of Palestine. Finland is not among these countries but is instead waiting to see how the situation develops, together with, among others, the USA, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

This is reasonable in the sense that, from the perspective of international law, the existence of a state requires four basic elements – a permanent population, clearly defined borders, a functioning government, and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. Of these conditions, especially the second, third, and fourth are not met, so a rational person would sooner question the logic of the states that have recognized Palestine than that of the states that have chosen to wait.

Therefore, Palestine should be recognized as a state only when – or if – it one day fulfills all four conditions. In the meantime, every country – regardless of its stance on recognizing Palestine – can act in support of a just peace between Jews and Arabs living in the region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?
An Unexpected Endorsement of Professor’s Views
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace

Russia’s Aging MiG Fleet vs. Finland’s Modern Air Power

According to the Finnish Defence Forces Commander Janne Jaakkola, “three MiG aircraft would not stand a chance against F-35 fighters, JAS Gripens or FA-18s. In that sense, there was no military threat. A rapid kinetic response would have been a mistake.”

The statement referred to MiG-31 fighters that had entered Estonian airspace, and it is understandable insofar as this aircraft type is far from new: production began back in 1979, and the first planes were delivered to the Soviet military as early as 1982. In that respect, it is rather amusing that such aircraft are still part of Putin’s active air force inventory.

* * *

The most recent MiG fighter is known as the MiG-35, which, according to its manufacturer, belongs to the so-called fifth generation of fighters, featuring stealth characteristics designed to make radar detection more difficult. However, the aircraft deployed in the war in Ukraine have—at least according to Western sources—been said to be lacking compared to their American counterparts.

The Russians, however, claim that the MiGs flown in Ukraine are still undergoing testing, so that deficiencies can be identified and corrected before mass production begins. Until then, the bulk of the Mikoyan–Gurevich fighter fleet remains the outdated MiG-31s seen over Estonia—still the fastest fighter aircraft in the world.

* * *

The obsolescence of Russia’s aircraft is naturally good news for Finland, which will soon receive its first F-35 fighters. Even the current Finnish Air Force fleet—the F-18 Hornet—is, according to the Commander, superior to the MiGs in question. That said, the Hornet is roughly from the same era as the MiG-31, its maiden flight having taken place already in 1978.

On the other hand, the MiG-31 and F-18 Hornet have never faced each other in aerial combat, so Jaakkola’s statement about the latter’s superiority is not based on combat experience but most likely only on assessments derived from technical specifications. For that reason, it should be taken with a grain of salt—though I myself believe in the superiority of Western technology over Soviet-era production.

Nor, judging by history, is there reason to doubt that Finnish pilots would be more skilled than their Russian counterparts.

* * *

Finally, it should be noted that the most well-known Russian next-generation stealth fighter is the Sukhoi-57, which has been used—and also shot down—in the war in Ukraine. In 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that a total of 76 such aircraft would be procured for the country’s air force by 2028.

It would be interesting to know whether our Defence Forces’ Commander also regards the newer Sukhoi and MiG-35 fighters as clearly inferior to their Western counterparts—or whether he sees them as being capable of holding their own in combat against American and European aircraft.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Finns - Among the World’s Best

Kremlin’s Provocations Echo Pre-War Rhetoric on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin’s Russia once again tested Estonia’s air defense by sending fighter jets flying “dark” – that is, without transponders – toward Tallinn. However, the planes turned back after first Finnish and then Italian fighter jets appeared to meet them.

The details of the encounter have not been made public, so we do not know whether the mere appearance of NATO aircraft was enough to make the Russians retreat, or whether the jets had to make it clear in some way that they were serious—perhaps using some kind of signaling, or even weapons, to drive the message home.

In any case, this was the fourth such incident this year, so it cannot be dismissed as a navigational error. Rather, it was a deliberate action—and therefore a dangerous game that relies on the assumption that airspace violators will not be shot down.

* * *

The situation is, of course, extremely difficult for Estonia and for NATO’s defense as a whole. Previous airspace violations have lasted around a minute, but this time the incursion was stretched to four times that length. And as noted above, the course was set toward Tallinn.

The obvious question is whether NATO has agreed on some kind of threshold after which Russian fighters will be actively intercepted—that is, shot down, as happened recently with drones flying in Polish airspace.

Naturally, the threshold for such an action is very high, since downing aircraft would almost certainly trigger extreme military and political tension. At the same time, it is equally clear that Russian fighter jets flying dark and without permission cannot be allowed over Tallinn; they must be stopped in time, and by any means necessary if required.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether these Russian violations of Estonian airspace will continue and lengthen in the coming days and weeks—and whether they might extend into Finnish airspace as well, testing Finland’s readiness in the same way.

This possibility may be hinted at by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s claim that the Finnish government’s “façade of neutrality has fallen away,” and that a politics of retribution has “literally arisen” in our country. A similar goal also seems to be served by statements from Russia—apparently aimed at undermining Finnish unity—suggesting that Finland’s population is dissatisfied with the government, and that the absence of Russian tourists in eastern Finland has led to “population decline” and economic weakening in Southeast Finland.

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these narratives resemble the kind of rhetoric the Putin regime used to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is why Finland’s—and NATO’s—communication toward Russia must be firm and unequivocal, making it clear that Russia has nothing to gain beyond its northwestern borders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

When Diversity Beats Doctors: Three UK Healthcare Realities to Make Stalin Envious

I just read a news story about the United Kingdom which, in all its absurdity, seemed downright unbelievable. According to it, a radiographer is “obliged to inquire about possible pregnancy even, for example, from middle-aged men.”

In other words, this is about the impact of diversity, equity, and inclusion—DEI—on the way hospitals operate. But the detail I just mentioned wasn’t even the most ridiculous part of the article. At least not in my opinion; it only took third place.

Second place in this intellectual somersault went to the claim that the health system in England spends over 45 million euros annually on salaries for staff working in diversity roles. And as a result, there apparently isn’t enough money for things like new office chairs. 

And the gold medal? That went to the revelation that DEI trainers in Britain’s healthcare system can indeed be paid several times more than doctors. Yes—you read that correctly, dear reader: a doctor is no longer the most important figure in healthcare, at least if measured by salary. That role now belongs to a political commissar spreading left-liberal propaganda and keeping watch over others.

My apologies to all the British readers, but at this very moment I can’t think of much positive to say about you. Unless, of course, one counts the fact that even the late dictator of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, would be envious of your achievements.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now

When Should the Independence of Palestine Be Recognized?

Many states have recognized the State of Palestine. In other words, they have recognized something that does not even exist.

Finland is not, at least for the time being, part of this group. But now the entire Finnish green-left – the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, and the Left Alliance – have demanded that Finland’s government recognize the State of Palestine. In other words – I repeat – recognize something that does not even exist.

President of Finland Alexander Stubb has left this matter to the government and parliament, meaning he has promised to sign the recognition if such a proposal is placed on his desk. It has not yet been presented, but according to Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, “the government is still processing the matter, but our main policy, as decided in the foreign and security policy report, is that we promote the two-state solution.”

In practice, the government is unlikely to make such a proposal to the President, since its other main party, the Finns Party, as well as its smallest party, the Christian Democrats, oppose recognition. The President has also acknowledged this, saying: “Somehow I don’t believe I will receive this proposal before the UN meeting next week.

* * *

For my part, I state that if a new independent state is created in Palestine, I am ready to support its recognition immediately. On the other hand, I do not wish under any circumstances to recognize something that does not even exist.

In this, I follow the model set by Western countries over a hundred years ago – including Germany, which was at war with them – who decided after Finland declared independence in 1917 that recognition would not come until Soviet Russia itself recognized the new state. This led the ruling Senate of Finland to turn to Lenin’s Council of People’s Commissars.

After various stages, Lenin then acknowledged the facts as they were and recognized Finland’s independence. After that, Western nations followed suit one by one, and there has been no ambiguity about Finland’s independence since, even though the Soviet Union tried to occupy the country during World War II – on two separate occasions.

This is the same model I am prepared to recommend for the recognition of Palestine. That is, let the Palestinians lay down their arms, make peace with Israel, and agree on the conditions under which an entity made up of the West Bank and Gaza could achieve independence. And let Finland, in that context, acknowledge the reality – and grant recognition to the new state only then.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Did Finland Remain an Independent Democracy After World War II?
When Should We Recognize the Independence of Palestine?
Palestinian Youth Require More Understanding, Less Aggression

Swedish Ministers Condemn Antisemitic Protest Outside Jewish School

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Stenergard commented on social media about a demonstration held in front of a Jewish elementary school, which was directed against Jews. According to her, “This is not about freedom of speech, but about creating terror and fear among children living in Sweden. Their families have been persecuted for generations. I feel nothing but disgust toward those who do this.”

She further stated that “this is an entirely new movement that is emerging. It hides behind freedom of speech, but does not respect it at all. The demonstrators are doing more than just protesting. This has no place in Sweden.”

The country’s Minister of Culture, Parisa Liljestrand, is also concerned about the demonstration. According to her social media update, “yet another line has been crossed. This is revolting.”

* * *

Unfortunately, this incident is by no means unique in Sweden, as antisemitism has increased in the country almost explosively. Statistics illustrate this: in the autumn of 2022, police reports were filed in 24 cases of hate crimes with an identified antisemitic motive. A year later, during the same period, as many as 110 such reports were made.Based on press photos of the aforementioned case, it appears that both Swedes and Islamic immigrants were present—adults carrying Palestinian flags and anti-Israel banners. No physical violence or weapons, however, were visible.

It remains to be seen how the former ‘people’s home’ will treat its Jewish minority in the future, as the Muslim minority of at least one million people continues to grow rapidly. The question is whether peaceful coexistence between different religious groups will endure, or whether at some point demonstrations will escalate into more serious clashes.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
The Left Wants to Grill a Swedish Minister Over His Son’s Past – What’s Really Behind It?
Demonstrations cause trouble in Helsinki and Sweden

Both the Best and the Dumbest in Tokyo Emerged Today

Today was undoubtedly the most significant day of the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo. This is because we witnessed two truly remarkable performances.

The first of them was Sweden’s Armand Duplantis’ dominant victory – and a new world record – in the men’s pole vault. Based on that, I dare to say already before the halfway point of the championships that Duplantis is currently athletics’ brightest superstar and the most dominant athlete. Grattis!

The second particularly remarkable performance came in the 3,000-meter steeplechase, where Soufiane El Bakkali earned himself the title of the championships’ dumbest athlete. What else can you think of a runner who accelerates after the final water jump into a clear lead, but then can’t be bothered to push all the way to the end, slows down after the final dry barrier, and for that reason is overtaken just a few meters before the finish line?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
Finnish Artists Embarrassed Themselves Over the Eurovision Song Contest
Football-Associated Violence Is a Personality Problem

Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special operation” in Ukraine is becoming ever more visible in Russia. Fresh examples of this include the derailment of two trains in the Leningrad region and a drone strike on the Primorsk (Koivisto) oil terminal, which has left Russian oil exports from this port still suspended.

According to a social media account called The War Action, during the past August Ukraine struck 22 oil- and gas-related facilities, 12 railway infrastructure targets, six defense industry companies, three ports and warehouses, and two airports. As a result, this month ten Russian regions have faced such severe fuel shortages that some independent gas stations shut down entirely—and where operations continue, gasoline prices have risen.

At the same time, the balance of power on the battlefield has shifted. For instance, near Dobropillia, Ukrainian armed forces units have advanced west of Volodymyrivka. Several Russian detachments remain encircled near Kucheriv Yar—and even the reinforcements sent to assist them are themselves facing encirclement.

If these developments continue, it is clear that Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s dictator will begin to weaken. His situation is made no easier by the fact that Donald Trump has called on all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia, to impose tougher sanctions against it, and to levy 50–100 percent import tariffs on China.

As a carrot, Trump has offered that if all his demands are met, the United States will also be ready to impose major sanctions against Russia—thereby forcing Vladimir Putin to end his special operation, or at least compelling the Russian people to rid themselves of their dictator.

Putin’s difficult situation is also evident from the fact that even Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenko has begun to distance himself from his regime. This was seen, for example, when Belarusian authorities warned the Poles about drones that had recently crossed the border through Belarusian airspace.

Or what do you think, my dear reader? Could all this be a sign that Vladimir Vladimirovich’s countdown has now begun? Or am I just dreaming?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential
Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

Challenging What We Think We Know: Wildfires Reveal the Power of Science

Large wildfires make headlines that spread across the world. This certainly does nothing to lessen the negative stigma attached to them.

That is why it was so interesting to come across a study examining the impact of wildfires in the western United States on air quality in other parts of the country. The researchers’ hypothesis was that wildfires would worsen air quality simply because of smoke transport.

However, the hypothesis turned out to be incorrect. Ma and colleagues showed that extreme wildfires in the West actually reduce fine particle concentrations in the eastern United States by roughly the same amount as they increase them in the West.

This surprising result was explained by the fact that heat-induced convection from the fires weakens eastward transport of smoke and enhances the removal of air pollutants through precipitation. In fact, this mechanism reduces human mortality and economic losses nationwide!

Of course, it is welcome news that the health effects of wildfires may not be as dramatic as feared. Yet in my view, the real lesson of this study lies elsewhere. It once again demonstrates that ordinary and seemingly logical assumptions people make do not necessarily correspond to reality. At the same time, it helps to highlight why systematic science is very likely one of humanity’s most important institutions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
Scientific misconduct on prevailing theories is too attractive

On Freedom, Debate, and the Murder of Charlie Kirk

As my esteemed reader surely knows, on Wednesday in the United States, Charlie Kirk, the founder of the conservative youth organization Turning Point USA, was shot. The identity of the shooter is not yet known for sure, although one suspect, Tyler Robinson, has been named and arrested. Based on images released to the public, he appears to be a young white man.

The weapon used in the murder has apparently been found, but the shooter’s identity has not been established—or at least it has not been disclosed. Instead, engravings were found on the bullets in the gun, expressing transsexual and antifascist ideology.

On this basis, it has been suspected that the shooter’s motive was left-liberal or at least ideological in nature. Nevertheless—or perhaps precisely for that reason—President Donald Trump has urged his famously right-wing conservative supporters to respond peacefully.

* * *

For my part, I see that although the violent ending of a human life is already in itself an extremely serious crime, the saddest long-term consequence of the murder is its effect on freedom of speech, and through that, on the future of American society. This is because Charlie Kirk was known as someone who was willing to engage in public debate with people whose worldview differed radically from his own.

Thus, despite belonging to the most conservative end of the political spectrum, he maintained cross-party debate in a country where the lines of polarization between people have tightened considerably in recent years. And as a result of this activity, he was killed—instead of rising to become a nationwide political figure.

The risk in this situation is that, as a consequence of the murder, other people who bravely voice their views—that is, those who take part in societal discussion—will also fall silent out of fear, thereby narrowing the dialogue between extremes even further. At the same time, the polarization of American society will deepen, and in the worst case we may end up in a situation where the political movement in power at the time—or at least its supporters—are left without the healthy societal criticism they need.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts
Freedom of Speech in Danger
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

An Unexpected Endorsement of Professor’s Views

I have occasionally observed (example, another, third) that the greatest problem of the Palestinians in the Holy Land has been their historical aspiration to first annihilate the Jews who settled there, as well as their inability to accept the facts that have taken place. In practice, the reason for their misery therefore lies with their leaders and the terrorist organizations—foremost among them Hamas—whose actions have prevented, and continue to prevent, the emergence of a peaceful solution in Gaza and the achievement of peace throughout the region.

That is why it was interesting to note that Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of Hamas’s founder Hassan Yousef, has stated that Gaza no longer exists, and that the thanks for this go to Hamas, which has used residential buildings in the area as ammunition depots. He has also called Hamas a cult of death and described how the terrorists even use their own children as human shields.

It is good to see that my view on the causes of Palestinian suffering received support from such an unexpected source. However, it is not surprising, because when recognizing the facts and thinking logically, it is self-evident—something that can only be overlooked by an observer’s inability to free themselves from their own prejudices.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Cost of the East Jerusalem Attack for Palestinians — and Its Echo Worldwide
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace
Will Gaza Get a Ceasefire, or Will Hamas Hold On to Its Terrorist Capabilities?

Responding to Russia’s Challenges Is Essential

This morning’s news reported that Poland’s air defense destroyed Russian drones. And this did not happen in Ukraine, but in the airspace of Poland, a NATO member.

Taking into account the recent interference with the aircraft carrying the president of the European Commission, as well as the earlier bombing of a factory in Ukraine owned by Americans and the damaging of EU and UK buildings, it is becoming clear that this is not about accidents but deliberate actions. And such actions can only have one purpose: to test the unity and readiness of Europeans and especially NATO.

At the same time, it is clear that the more loosely the West responds to Russian actions, the more certain it is that Russia will continue to challenge them. The only question is where and in what way.

In this situation, the greatest danger lies with the smallest border states, namely the Baltic countries. Estonia, for instance, has recently been subjected to several airspace violations, the latest just a couple of days ago.

Thus, the question arises: if the West responds weakly or not at all to Russia’s provocations related to the war in Ukraine, could a surprise attack be ahead? For example, a blitzkrieg directed at one of the Baltic states, with the goal of occupying the entire country so quickly that a reluctant NATO would not have time to intervene?

To prevent such a scenario, it is important that Western countries pull themselves together, recognize the obvious facts, and respond forcefully to Russia’s provocations in Ukraine and in its immediate border areas. In doing so, they would send Vladimir Putin the clearest possible message: that there are no easy victories for him in EU and NATO countries—only bitter defeat.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Donald Trump’s Meeting With Vladimir Putin: The Advice He Needs

Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been a shock to military leadership worldwide, as old doctrines of warfare have been put to the test there – and in many respects, outright discarded. As a result, every army’s leadership has been forced to consider how to respond to these newly emerged challenges. For arms manufacturers, the task has become figuring out how to meet these needs.

In this regard, an illuminating example is provided by Patria, a manufacturer of military vehicles, which has unveiled a new armored personnel carrier equipped with a machine gun – the Patria TRACKX. This is a next-generation vehicle that specifically incorporates lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

One such lesson is the threat posed by drones, which until now has scarcely been taken into account in military vehicle design. TRACKX brings a change in this area, as its protection is designed specifically to neutralize drone attacks.

Another key issue highlighted by the war in Ukraine for military vehicle design is the requirement for high performance in challenging conditions. For this reason, TRACKX runs on rubber tracks but can also move at high speed when needed. This has been demonstrated in practice, as TRACKX set a new world speed record for tracked vehicles in the spring – 88 kilometers per hour.

Patria expects that, due to these innovative features, there will be significant demand for the vehicle both within the EU and beyond. According to the company, serial production will begin in 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine Action Suomi - a Bona Fide Actor or False Flag Organization?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

The Cost of the East Jerusalem Attack for Palestinians — and Its Echo Worldwide

Two Palestinian militants apparently thought that the Palestinians’ position in the Holy Land would improve if they started shooting on a road heavily used by Jews. So they put their plan into action, managing to kill at least six people and wound several others. And of course, they themselves supposedly got to enjoy the company of 72 virgins—assuming, that is, that there’s any truth to their beliefs.

Next, we are left to see what follows from this attack. Will the everyday life of ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank improve, or perhaps turn quite the opposite way?

Even more interesting, however, will be to observe how European media report on the future living conditions of the people in the West Bank—conditions that Israel’s army will undoubtedly alter in one way or another. And more interesting still will be to see how UN Secretary-General António Guterres comments on what has happened now, and again later when we can see the consequences.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace
Will Gaza Get a Ceasefire, or Will Hamas Hold On to Its Terrorist Capabilities?
United Nations, corruption and terrorism

Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?

The bigger Nordic countries – Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland – are generally seen as a highly unified group of states, where democratic decision-making works exceptionally well. At the same time, however, they have undergone major demographic changes as a result of humanitarian immigration, which will likely have a significant impact on their future.

Sweden, as a former great power, is the largest Nordic country, governed by the local EPP together with a smaller EPP party and a liberal RE party. The government is also supported in parliament by an ECR party outside the coalition, whose immigration policy goals have been included in the government program.

This unusual arrangement stems from the fact that Sweden’s immigration policy has been extremely liberal, which has made the country’s population more multicultural than in the other Nordic countries. At the same time, the related challenges have also been greater.

This is reflected in the support for Swedish parties. The largest party in the country is still the Social Democrats (S&D group in the European Parliament), with around 34% support, but a party belonging to the ECR group that is critical of multiculturalism has risen to compete with the EPP for second place, with about 20% support. The country’s other parties are small.

Denmark is currently governed by a three-party coalition consisting of the Social Democrats (S&D) and two RE parties.

Unlike in the other Nordic countries, Denmark’s S&D has long pursued a strict immigration policy, which has reduced immigration-related problems. This helped their support rise a few years ago to very high levels – even around 35% – but in recent years it has dropped to about 20%. Despite this, the party remains clearly the most popular in the country.

Denmark’s second most popular party has been the Greens (G/EFA), with support around 15%. They are followed slightly behind by the RE-affiliated Venstre party, and behind them an ECR party at about 10%, which is slightly higher than the Danish PfE group, whose support has risen significantly this year. In addition, a large number of smaller parties influence Danish politics, including the smallest RE party in government.

In Norway, the country is currently governed by a minority government of the local S&D party, but parliamentary elections are being held today and tomorrow, after which a new government will likely be formed.

Humanitarian immigration in Norway has been more limited, and thus the related problems have been smaller than in Sweden. Nevertheless, the local ECR group has in recent years competed for the position of the country’s largest party alongside the S&D and the EPP. Meanwhile, the far left (SV) has lost support.

In my home country of Finland, the government is formed by two EPP parties, an ECR party, and an RE party representing the interests of the Swedish-speaking population. The government has pursued a strict economic policy driven by the larger EPP party, while also following the relatively strict immigration policy demanded by the ECR party in its government program.

During the current parliamentary term, the support for Finland’s EPP parties and the language-based party has remained relatively stable (around 20%, 3%, and 4%, respectively). By contrast, the Finns Party’s support collapsed under government responsibility, falling from around 20% in the 2023 elections to about half of that, though in recent months it has started to rise again.

Among the opposition parties, support has grown for the S&D party, which has risen to 26%, making it clearly Finland’s most popular party at the moment. Another recent gainer has been the former agrarian party (around 15%), which for some reason belongs to the RE group in the European Parliament. Meanwhile, the Greens’ support has long been in decline (8%), while the far-left party belonging to the LEFT group has remained fairly stable in 10%.

As this brief overview of Nordic politics shows, there are significant political differences among these countries regarding immigration. It remains to be seen how these differences develop in the future – and especially whether Sweden’s long-standing open immigration policy will lead it to diverge from the other Nordic countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Nordic Police Announce: Spread of Gang Violence Cannot Be Stopped
Nordic Nations Unite Against the Growing Threat of Cross-Border Organized Crime

Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians

The terrorism situation and trend report published by Europol showed that jihadist terrorism was once again the deadliest form of terrorism in the EU in 2024. It claimed five lives and left 18 people injured.

During 2024, EU member states reported a total of 58 terrorist attacks. Of these, 34 were carried out, five failed, and 19 were foiled. Attacks were reported in 14 different countries. Of the attacks, 24 were considered to have been committed by jihadist terrorists. In 21 cases, the perpetrators were left-wing or anarchist terrorists.

On the other hand, a total of 40 attempted attacks were prevented in the European Union. Of these, 18 were jihadist-motivated, 21 left-wing or anarchist-motivated, and one far-right-motivated. The foiled jihadist attempts targeted in particular large public events, whereas the left-wing and anarchist attempts were mostly directed at industrial and private-sector targets.

I believe these figures speak for themselves about the consequences of European immigration policy, without me having to spell them out. Such an understanding would be especially important for left-wing and value-liberal politicians, who have been active supporters of this development.

Unfortunately, however, I am skeptical as to whether they would be able—or even willing—to draw logical conclusions from the figures I have presented, since immigration has long since ceased to be a fact-based issue and has instead become a kind of religious confession, in which dissent automatically leads to exclusion from one’s own reference group—and thus to the end of a political career.

Previous thought on the same topic:
Burning a Man Alive Led to Life Imprisonment
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point?
Will European Culture Collapse Under the Weight of Islamic Immigration?

Putin on His Knees Before Xi — and Running Out of Money

The Finnish Institute of International Affairs’ senior researcher Jussi Lassila commented on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s trip to China, and in doing so, he also summarized his position in world politics remarkably well. He noted that “Putin is on his knees before Xi, which suits China. Xi can present agreements to Russia that greatly benefit China, while Russia is forced to accept deals that are unfavorable to itself.”

At the same time, Lassila reassured ordinary people worried about the growing closeness between China and Russia. He pointed out that “Of course, opposition to the United States remains the common denominator here, but I don’t see any truly unified anti-Western alliance emerging between China and Russia”—and he explained, quite rightly, that “China has benefited enormously from the prevailing global order, which is why its continuity is in its interest.”

Lassila’s comments are both credible and fact-based—and therefore most likely accurate.

Another recent piece of news certainly does nothing to improve Putin’s situation: Russia’s state coffers are beginning to run dry. The liquidity of the National Wealth Fund, calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), has fallen below 155 billion euros. At the central bank, the state has net reserves of 200 billion euros (PPP). In other words, Russia’s assets are sufficient to cover the budget for only about one year—until August 2026.

In that situation, hard facts will catch up with Putin’s so-called “special operation.” After all, you cannot draw something out of nothing, and waging war is not free. It may, therefore, very well be that the fate of Tsar Nicholas II will begin to haunt the dictator who imagines himself omnipotent—sooner or later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now
Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia
The Price of Xi´s and Putin's Game Is Paid by Ordinary Russians

Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Last Thursday, the Israeli armed forces killed Yemen’s Houthi administration Prime Minister Ahmed Ghalib al-Rahawi, Foreign Minister Jamal Amer, and ten other ministers — more than half of Yemen’s government members — in a precise airstrike. Such an outcome is undeniably impressive, and it could not have arisen by chance as if in a fairytale.

In this case too, the strike was preceded by weeks of intelligence gathering involving around 200 military intelligence professionals. The group worked in a secret bunker located in Israel and also included representatives of the United States military.

The actual attack was carried out by Israeli fighter jets just a few hours after the intelligence team had confirmed the meeting place of the Yemeni government. At that moment, the Yemeni ministers had just gathered to listen to the speech of spiritual and military leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who, fortunately for him, was speaking via remote connection and thus preserved his life.

For the time being, the broader impact of the successful strike remains uncertain, but it seems that the Houthi administration is trying to hold on to its position. In doing so, its members are taking an enormous risk of another Israeli and U.S. strike, which, if successful, could cost them their lives. In any case, it is clear that the intelligence services of these states will do their utmost to succeed again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Stalled Melting of Northern Polar Ice Buys the West Time to Strengthen Arctic Capabilities

One of my greatest interests is the visibility of predicted climate change in the surface area of northern sea ice. Therefore, dear readers, allow me to return once again to this topic, as I have not reported on it for some time in this English-language blog.

According to the August statistics, the average surface area of northern sea ice last August was the seventh smallest in its recorded history, which began in 1979. This was because, over the past year, the ice cover was larger than in August of 2024, 2020, 2019, 2016, 2012, and 2007.

This fact fits well with the already established picture that northern sea ice shrank rapidly from the 1990s until 2007, after which its surface area has shown nothing more than random variation. This reality is also illustrated in the figure I have drawn below, where the X-axis shows the ice area in millions of square kilometers and the Y-axis shows the years.

The maximum extent of Arctic sea ice is usually reached in September, so later this month we will see whether the amount of navigable, ice-free water in the Arctic Ocean exceeds that of previous years. Based on the above statistics, this does not seem likely—but neither does it seem entirely impossible.

The size of northern sea ice naturally has its own scientific significance, particularly in the context of the threat of climate change. In addition, it carries major practical geopolitical importance, since during President Trump’s administration the United States has observed that Russia is clearly ahead of others in this respect.

In this sense, the slowdown of ice melting is very good news for the free Western world, as it gives the U.S. and other nations interested in northern maritime regions more time to build up their own capacities for operating in the Arctic. At the same time, this particularly benefits my home country of Finland, which is indisputably the world leader in building icebreakers and stands ready to offer its expertise to other nations as well.

Previous thought on the same topic:

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland