20 June 2024

Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability

Finnish military intelligence has reported that Russia has relocated about 80 percent of the troops near the Finnish border to other areas, specifically to Ukraine. This particularly concerns ground forces, where, in addition to personnel, the remaining equipment shows signs of obsolescence.

The same is most likely happening in other military bases across Russia. Therefore, even if the ongoing war in Ukraine were to end at this moment, it would take several years for the Russian army to regain its previous level of combat capability.

This indicates that Vladimir Putin's army is at the limits of its endurance in its invasion of Ukraine. It also means that it would not be capable of launching large-scale military operations elsewhere at this time.

This also implies that Russia currently lacks the ability to defend against a conventional military attack directed against it. This might explain why Russia has recently brought up the possibility of changing its nuclear doctrine.

From the perspective of the war in Ukraine, the weakening of the Russian army is naturally a good thing, especially now that its ground attack in the Kharkiv direction has resulted in nothing but significant personnel and equipment losses for the attacker. This does not mean that Putin will abandon his plans, but it perhaps gives hope that the operational capability of the Russians will continue to weaken on the other Ukrainian fronts as well.