Finnish meteorologist Pekka Pouta reported that in some parts of Finland, the so-called thermal summer is still continuing. This means that the average daily temperature remains mostly above ten degrees Celsius.
This is unusual, as we are already in October, meaning that according to the calendar we are in the middle of autumn. In addition, according to Pouta's forecast, warm air currents will reach Finland in the coming days as well, so the summery weather looks set to continue.
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Based on this, one might imagine that the melting of the ice fields in the Arctic Ocean would likewise continue at a rapid pace. This is not the case, however. During the past few days, Arctic sea ice has expanded rapidly, to the extent that according to the latest data (from the day before yesterday), its extent was greater for this time of year than at any point since 2014.
In fact, Arctic sea ice begins to grow every year in September, including this year. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the average extent of Arctic sea ice in September was the largest since 2022, as shown in the figure below.
The figure also shows that the average extent of Arctic sea ice in September has, in practice, neither increased nor decreased significantly since 2007. Consequently, the enthusiasm—particularly among the Russians—to use the Northeast Passage for freight transport does not appear likely to diminish, unless the trend in sea-ice extent returns to the downward trajectory seen between 1995 and 2007.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Recent Arctic Sea Ice Decline Is Not Accelerating
Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting
Stalled Melting of Northern Polar Ice Buys the West Time to Strengthen Arctic Capabilities
