According to the New York Times Iran has agreed to give up its enriched uranium. However, CNN has stated that "Iran has agreed that the same number of ships will pass through the strait in the future as before the war. But that absolutely does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the same way it was before the war."
As a result of these concessions, the war between the USA and Iran would apparently be coming to an end, which would be excellent news for world peace. At the same time, however, it would be an outrageous development especially for Iranian women — but also for ordinary people and young people — who would remain under the rule of a fanatical Muslim regime.
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If the information outlined above is true, it is also clear that there is particular reason for satisfaction in Israel, as the existential nuclear threat posed by Iran would be disappearing. For Americans, meanwhile, what remains is the realization that their military capability was not, after all, what they — and the entire world — had imagined it to be.
This is likely to lead to major changes within the U.S. military in order to remedy the situation, while at the same time opening an opportunity for China to seriously consider advancing its position regarding Taiwan. And in the opinion of many, it may even be surprising that this has not already happened.
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There may of course be many reasons for this, but in my own opinion the most serious possibility is that Xi Jinping may not even intend to resolve the Taiwan question militarily. Conquering the island of Formosa would of course be a historic victory, but at the same time an enormous risk for the Chinese leadership — especially since America’s inability to overthrow the Iranian regime has provided a cautionary example. As has Putin’s army becoming bogged down on the plains of Ukraine.
For this reason, I believe Xi is currently focusing, instead of war, on subordinating Russia into becoming China’s economic vassal and above all a reserve of raw materials. Success in this would provide the Chinese communist leadership with long-term benefits and the opportunity to maintain sustainable economic growth despite the country’s demographic structure becoming more challenging year by year.
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According to the Bank of Finland, China’s population has in recent years begun to decline, and the birth rate has fallen even below the level seen during the country’s one-child policy era: today only about one child is born per woman, which is significantly lower than, for example, in Finland. At the same time, the number of elderly people is growing rapidly.
For this reason, it would be sheer madness to embark on a campaign to conquer Taiwan, where large numbers of young soldiers would certainly die. This despite the fact that China’s expertise in robotics would undoubtedly enable a form of technological warfare similar to that practiced by Ukrainians against the Russian forces that invaded their homeland.
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A war of conquest would also involve an enormous risk that at least part of the Chinese population would turn against Xi’s regime. Therefore, from his perspective, it makes far more sense to secure his own position by focusing on a more constructive foreign policy both in Russia and elsewhere in the world.
In much the same way that the Chinese have turned many African countries into a kind of colony from which China imports materials essential to modern industry — cobalt, lithium, aluminum, copper, rare earth elements, as well as crude oil and agricultural products. At the same time, it exports Chinese weapons and electronics there and builds infrastructure.
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The situation I have described above is simply too favorable for the Chinese — and especially for the country’s autocratic leader — while the examples of the USA and Russia described at the beginning of this article are terrifying enough that China’s leadership is unlikely to embark on an adventure in Taiwan right now.
At the same time, however, it should be noted that if Xi’s — or future communist leaders’ — position were to weaken significantly, the Taiwan issue would certainly emerge as one possible means of reversing such a development: throughout history, wars of aggression have often served as a way for unpopular governments to rally public support through the patriotic fervor created by war.
For the time being, however, this is not the case, and Xi can instead exploit the opportunities created by the failures experienced by Americans and Russians in Iran and Ukraine. And thereby increase — or at least maintain — his own popularity.”
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear
What’s Next, Iran?
Venezuela, Antonio Guterres and the Nature of Great Powers
