30 December 2023

Desperate cry of Russians

The war between Russia and Ukraine is currently in an interesting phase. Russia has managed to advance on some fronts, but at the same time, it has suffered a significant loss of personnel.

According to a recent Finnish assessment, Russia has suffered tens of thousands of casualties, including both dead and wounded, on the Andrivka front, along with a substantial loss of military equipment. In addition to this, Ukrainians have successfully destroyed a large warship and five fighter jets.

At the same time, the Putin government is definitively losing credibility among Russian citizens, as only one in four Russians now believes in the news reported by media under its control. In contrast, Ukrainians' belief in the victory of their country remains high.

In this situation, Russia's large-scale missile attack on Ukrainian civilian targets is better understood as a sign of desperation rather than a show of strength. Therefore, it is even more crucial for Western countries to continue their military support to Ukraine so that the war achieves an inevitable outcome where Russia is forced to withdraw from Ukrainian soil, and its current administration is ousted through some form of coup.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike
Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?
Victims of Russian leaders

24 December 2023

Christmas gift to the Holy Land

In the Christian - and nowadays, even among more secular Western people - Christmas emphasizes events over 2,000 years ago in the current territory of Israel, as well as the giving of gifts in commemoration of those events. That's why this Christmas, I want to remember the residents of the so-called Holy Land with a proposal for achieving lasting peace between them.

A new solution is needed for two reasons. The first is the nature of Israel as a Jewish state, and the second is the terrorist violence carried out by the Palestinian population who made a colossal mistake in the events of 1948-49 by following the proposal by other Arabs to leave their homes. Both have hindered the establishment of peace between the inhabitants of the Holy Land.

Therefore, a solution must be sought based on maintaining the nature of Israel as a Jewish state while putting an end to the terrorist activities of the Palestinian population. These conditions are not met by the widely discussed two-state model, and particularly, Jews are not interested in a single-state model where Palestinians who engage in terrorism year after year would be granted Israeli citizenship.

In this situation, creative thinking is needed. However, first, we must wait for the end of the ongoing war so that the biggest obstacle to peace, the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, is removed from the stage.

Afterward, there should be a negotiation table with representation from Jews and Palestinians living in Israel, as well as Jordan, Egypt, and potentially other Arab countries, along with impartial mediators. The result must be an acceptable solution, offering Palestinians the freedom to either move away from Israel to Jordan, Egypt, or other Arab nations, or alternatively, to await Israeli citizenship.

Palestinians relocating to Arab countries should be granted citizenship, for example, five years after settling in the country, provided they meet the conditions and behave appropriately. Those choosing to live in Israel would initially remain without citizenship, but it would generally be granted to them after 30 years. 

That is primarily because renouncing Palestinian terrorism would be a precondition for citizenship. Since achieving this is unlikely to happen overnight, a framework encouraging the abandonment of violence must be established.

Therefore, it should be decided that for each act of Palestinian terrorism within the first year of the agreement, the granting of citizenship would be postponed by one week. Similarly, from the second to the tenth year of the agreement, each act of terrorism would delay citizenship by one month. After that, for the next ten years, each act of terrorism would postpone citizenship by one year, and from then on, by five years.

Such a system would provide Palestinians with a way out of the current deadlock and strong motivation to refrain from terrorist acts. As violence diminishes, trust between Israeli Jews and Palestinians would gradually grow, leading to increasing economic integration over the years, which would further strengthen the peaceful development.

* * *

In the proposal I outlined earlier, it is crucial that the timeframe is long, at least 30 years. Presumably, a considerable number of Palestinians would not choose to wait in Israel for such an extended period and would instead opt for relocation to an Arab country, where obtaining full citizenship rights could happen in a substantially shorter time. This way, the character of Israel as a Jewish state would not be compromised, even if the remaining Palestinians were granted citizenship.

The extended timeframe is also essential because over three decades, an entirely new generation of Palestinians and Jews would grow up, whose lives would not be overshadowed by continuous violence and oppression but rather characterized by peaceful coexistence. This would lead to a decrease in the significance of ethnic and religious boundaries, strengthening society and ultimately creating a situation where the granting of citizenship to Palestinians would not provoke insurmountable reactions among Jews.

And thus, peace would eventually arrive at the birthplace of Christian Christmas! For the people living there, peace and goodwill toward each other would prevail.

With this proposal, I wish all my readers a Merry Christmas! I also extend my wishes to the residents of the Holy Land, hoping that my gift brings them peace!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Merry Christmas!
Nauttikaa joulusta! (in Finnish, but readable in English using e.g. Google translator)
Joulumuisto (in Finnish, but readablein English using e.g. Google translator)

16 December 2023

The Finnish forest is life-threatening to asylum-seekers

Finland closed its eastern border a couple of weeks ago because Russia started directing asylum seekers from developing countries through it to the EU area. A few days ago, the border was reopened, but Russians continued to exploit asylum seekers by directing them to Finland.

As a result, Finland decided to close the border again, this time for a whole month. It remains to be seen whether Russia will continue its actions thereafter.

According to the Prime Minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party), "Russia is trying to undermine the national and mutual unity of Finland and EU countries, as well as the rule-based national order. It is important for Finland that the European Council condemns all hybrid attacks and strongly supports Finland's actions."

Hopefully, the Prime Minister's wish will be followed despite having little impact on the increasingly detached dictator Vladimir Putin. However, condemning his actions would demonstrate that Western countries are unified in defending world peace and the right of nations to decide their own affairs.

The closure of the border between Finland and Russia has also been noticed in Arabic-language social media. One user questioned, "Didn't you say in another post that it's not worth coming near the border because you'll be arrested... That only Russians and Schengen visa holders are allowed?"

The answer, of course, is that one should not approach the border because neither asylum seekers nor Russians are allowed to cross. Perhaps that's why one participant suggested, "Finland's forests are open, no need for border crossings."

This person may not be aware that someone unfamiliar with snow and forests is in mortal danger in Finland's nature during winter when travel is slow, daylight hours are short, and distances to roads are long. Alternatively, the person suggesting forest travel may have a secret aim to endanger the lives of asylum seekers on the border between Finland and Russia.

Even if that's not the case, the risk of death is real and will be realized if the participants' advice is followed.

9 December 2023

Correct minister, ridiculous facts

The Finnish parliamentary elections were held last summer. As a result, the country's government switched from a red-green coalition to a political right-wing one in the summer.

Among the politicians of the previous government, Maria Ohisalo of the Greens first served as the Minister of the Interior and later as the Minister of the Environment and Climate. Therefore, it was interesting to note her criticism of the current government on messaging service X, stating that Finland's ranking had dropped by a whopping 11 places according to the latest Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) ranking.

The situation became amusing when it was revealed that the former minister had not noticed that CCPI used two-year-old data for statistics, precisely from Maria Ohisalo's ministerial term. In other words, she blamed the current government for her own achievements.

It is clear that Ohisalo made herself appear ridiculous. What is less clear, however, is why she rushed to politicize the new information before verifying its accuracy.

If this behavior was typical for Ohisalo and the previous female-led government, it is no wonder that the previous government term was, especially in terms of the economy, downright catastrophic for Finland. For example, during the four-year period (2019-2022), the state debt increased by a whopping 33 percent, leaving the budget permanently about seven percent in deficit.

Hopefully, the current government will familiarize itself better with the facts before decision-making and succeed in revitalizing Finland's economy to make it comparable again to other Nordic countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit 175 happy winners Minister Maria Ohisalo panicked

2 December 2023

The increase in carbon dioxide concentration warms more than anticipated

I have previously followed with great interest the progress of climate change. In doing so, I have personally observed how ground-level measurement data has been retrospectively altered in such a way that there may not be reality-based justifications, such as changes in the location of thermometer or adjustments for temperature changes due to urbanization.

Therefore, my interest has shifted mainly to monitoring the surface area of the Arctic sea ice because I find its distortion quite challenging or downright impossible. To my satisfaction, I have also noted that there have been no significant changes to these statistics.

Today I read a recent study that measured the impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on the lower atmosphere's temperature. Increasing it (CO2) has so far been thought to have a direct effect on the global average surface air temperature.

However, this is not the case, as Haozhe He et al. found that doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the impact of CO2-induced growth by about a quarter. In other words, the more anthropogenic CO2 emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, the more serious the consequences.

In essence, He et al. presented a prediction - or hypothesis - that the lower atmosphere's temperature should rise more rapidly as the climate warms. Therefore, I plan to monitor how this is reflected in the fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice area - above all, whether it begins to melt again after statistically remaining the same size for over a decade despite the increase in COconcentration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The record-breaking warming of the oceans is not visible in the Arctic
Record low temperature in northern Finland
Arctic sea ice contradicts with the climatic model predictions, but is that changing now?