Recent Arctic Sea Ice Decline Is Not Accelerating

It is time to return to examining the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and the average surface area of northern polar ice in September of the previous year. I therefore once again conducted a regression analysis of the relationship between these two variables—over the period from 1979 to 2025—using carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa and ice area data from the NSIDC.

Since 2018 (using data from 2017), the basic idea underlying the analysis I have carried out annually is derived from the following premises: (1) according to the climate change hypothesis, climate change is an accelerating process; (2) models predict that temperature increases in the Arctic will be faster than in the rest of the globe; and (3) changes in polar ice area serve as a good proxy for temperature changes in the northernmost parts of the Earth.

In the figure below, the years marked in blue indicate those starting points from which annual measurements have demonstrated the existence of such a relationship according to the criterion I use (P < 0.01 in two consecutive years). The height of the bars shows how many years after that starting point this statistical significance was achieved.

The years marked in red are those for which no such statistical significance has been found. In these cases, the height of the bars indicates the number of years available for the analysis.

As my esteemed reader notes, during the early years of the time series the minimum extent of polar ice decreased in such a way that—according to the regression analysis—it exhibited a clear statistical cause-and-effect relationship with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Moreover, this relationship strengthened almost year by year up to the time series beginning in 2001.

After that, however, a change occurred: although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continued to rise steadily, the change in ice area did not reach statistical significance until last year. At that point, the observational series beginning in 2002 also became statistically significant, but only on the basis of an observational record twice as long as that required for the series beginning in the previous year.

This year, what was new was that the time series beginning in 2003 also reached statistical significance. It can therefore be concluded that northern sea ice has indeed melted in a statistically significant manner in recent years as well, but that the process—at least as measured by its annual minimum extent—has not been accelerating, as climate models have predicted.

* * *

In this respect, it is also interesting that although Arctic sea ice reached a larger minimum extent this year than in six other years (2007, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2003, and 2024), it melted rapidly in October, November, and December, and its surface area reached the smallest December average in the measurement record last month. This is shown in the figure below (the early part of which admittedly raises questions, but for which I am unable to provide an explanation).

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting
Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records
Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Pohjoinen merijää sulaa sittenkin

Gender identity and the future of Finnishness

Suomen Uutiset, the news outlet affiliated with the Finns Party, reported that the share of young people in the United States who identify as nonbinary or as something other than heterosexual has fallen significantly since 2023. According to the article, this suggests that the phenomenon is more likely a social one produced by the rise of the woke movement rather than a hereditary tendency.

The conclusion is logical in the sense that nonbinary identity or homosexuality can easily be seen as negative in terms of reproduction and therefore as a phenomenon that would, through natural selection, tend to be weeded out — even though it is, of course, known that genetic factors may also play a role. However, this does not necessarily mean that people who experience themselves as sexually non-conforming do not genuinely feel that they are what they identify as — in other words, it is not primarily about pretending or acting.

* * *

From the standpoint of a nation’s renewal, various gender deviations are naturally detrimental because they often lead to childlessness. That, in turn, is a major problem especially in Europe, where the demographic structure of the native population is rapidly aging, meaning the proportion of the active population is shrinking even as the number of elderly people in need of care first increases and then the population begins to decline.

In Finland, this is clearly visible in Statistics Finland’s report describing the numbers of different age groups since 1900. At that time, only 5.3 percent of the population were aged 65 or older. By 2000, the figure had risen to 15 percent, and by this year it has reached as high as 22.7 percent of the total population.

Conversely, those under 15 years of age made up as much as 35.1 percent of the population in 1900, only 18.1 percent in 2000, and just 15.6 percent this year. Of the latter figure, a significant portion are of non-Finnish or even non-European descent, meaning that the share of Finland’s original population has in fact decreased even more rapidly than the statistics suggest.

This means that in addition to the aging of Finland’s population, its genetic composition is also changing rapidly — a development that will affect the nation’s culture insofar as heredity and the parents’ own cultural heritage shape people’s behavior, values, and attitudes.

Unfortunately, much of this — especially the parts related to genetics — has long been a forbidden topic in human research. As a result, we lack up-to-date, researched information that would allow us to reliably anticipate the future of Finland and Finnishness.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Eviction of Inhabitants for Incoming Immigrants Sparks Controversy
Eurovision Song Contest Funding Faces Pushback Due to Woke Ideology
A National Rally election victory does not mean that France will become like Finland under the Finns Party

Are Coral Reefs Doomed Within the Next Few Years?

A recent science news report stated that, according to a study signed by 160 researchers, the destruction of coral reefs is now almost certainly irreversible. The report says that most coral reefs will die once global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

At present, the climate has warmed by 1.4 degrees, according to scientists, which means that the temperature leading to the irreversible collapse of reefs is expected to be reached within the next few years. When that happens, for example, the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica are likely to collapse.

And that’s not all — according to the lead author of the report, Tim Lenton, one of the tipping points involves the collapse of existing ocean currents, which would have catastrophic consequences. If this were to occur in the ocean circulation system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it would disrupt the global climate and, among other effects, cool the winters of Finland and the rest of Europe.

* * *

I wanted to highlight this topic because the report provides a clear prediction — one that will be fascinating, if admittedly frightening, to follow in the coming years. It’s especially intriguing because the timeframe mentioned is “in the next few years,” which to my ears sounds more like less than ten years rather than more. At the very least, it doesn’t imply waiting several decades, as shown by the chart published a couple of years ago by the University of Berkeley, which I’ve copied below.

So, I’ll try to remember to follow this issue in the coming years — and to report on it here in this blog, unless I become too senile before the coral reef catastrophe actually happens.

* * *

Before that, however, it’s worth recalling a study from last year which found that coral reef restoration can accelerate the recovery of coral cover and carbonate production so rapidly that the reefs’ net carbonate budgets resemble those of healthy reefs within just four years. And this occurs under the current climate, which is already 1.4 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

And that’s not all — this year another study was published showing that there are also coral reefs that are recovering. At least some can be found in the Chagos Archipelago, where coral cover on both the fore-reef and the lagoon increased by 59–67% after several years of bleaching.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this change of direction is only temporary — or whether it will prove to be permanent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuhoutuvatko koralliriutat lähivuosina?

Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?

Some Ukrainians have fled the war to other countries. As a result, there are also people in Finland who have escaped Russia’s invasion, and they have generally been well received. On the other hand, finding employment has been difficult: only about 30 percent of Ukrainians have jobs, while the rest depend on social security.

According to a recent survey, however, the majority of Ukrainians intend to stay in Finland even if the war raging in their homeland were to end. This group makes up about 70 percent of all Ukrainians in the country.

At the same time, Finland has tightened its immigration policy, so it remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians currently in the country once peace returns and the need for humanitarian protection ends. In a way, Finland does need a solid workforce in the long term due to its low birth rate, even though unemployment currently affects as much as ten percent of the national labor force.

It should also be noted that the native population’s attitude toward Ukrainians is significantly more positive than toward many other groups who have arrived on humanitarian grounds. Likewise, it is clear that their readiness to earn a living through work is on a completely different level compared to those coming from developing countries.

In that sense, it would be reasonable for Finland to consider its immigration policy also from the perspective of the receiving society and to favor the settlement of Ukrainians over more problematic groups of newcomers. However, such arrangements face an obstacle in the form of so-called non-discrimination requirements—raised almost certainly by the political left—which aim to prevent immigration policy from taking advantage of recognized differences between population groups.

It therefore remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians who have settled in Finland—and, along with that, whether Finns are capable of making sensible immigration policy or whether moral posturing will once again take precedence.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland to Tighten Citizenship Requirements Further
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
A Different Kind of Christmas

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

Swedish Ministers Condemn Antisemitic Protest Outside Jewish School

Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Stenergard commented on social media about a demonstration held in front of a Jewish elementary school, which was directed against Jews. According to her, “This is not about freedom of speech, but about creating terror and fear among children living in Sweden. Their families have been persecuted for generations. I feel nothing but disgust toward those who do this.”

She further stated that “this is an entirely new movement that is emerging. It hides behind freedom of speech, but does not respect it at all. The demonstrators are doing more than just protesting. This has no place in Sweden.”

The country’s Minister of Culture, Parisa Liljestrand, is also concerned about the demonstration. According to her social media update, “yet another line has been crossed. This is revolting.”

* * *

Unfortunately, this incident is by no means unique in Sweden, as antisemitism has increased in the country almost explosively. Statistics illustrate this: in the autumn of 2022, police reports were filed in 24 cases of hate crimes with an identified antisemitic motive. A year later, during the same period, as many as 110 such reports were made.Based on press photos of the aforementioned case, it appears that both Swedes and Islamic immigrants were present—adults carrying Palestinian flags and anti-Israel banners. No physical violence or weapons, however, were visible.

It remains to be seen how the former ‘people’s home’ will treat its Jewish minority in the future, as the Muslim minority of at least one million people continues to grow rapidly. The question is whether peaceful coexistence between different religious groups will endure, or whether at some point demonstrations will escalate into more serious clashes.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
The Left Wants to Grill a Swedish Minister Over His Son’s Past – What’s Really Behind It?
Demonstrations cause trouble in Helsinki and Sweden

Stalled Melting of Northern Polar Ice Buys the West Time to Strengthen Arctic Capabilities

One of my greatest interests is the visibility of predicted climate change in the surface area of northern sea ice. Therefore, dear readers, allow me to return once again to this topic, as I have not reported on it for some time in this English-language blog.

According to the August statistics, the average surface area of northern sea ice last August was the seventh smallest in its recorded history, which began in 1979. This was because, over the past year, the ice cover was larger than in August of 2024, 2020, 2019, 2016, 2012, and 2007.

This fact fits well with the already established picture that northern sea ice shrank rapidly from the 1990s until 2007, after which its surface area has shown nothing more than random variation. This reality is also illustrated in the figure I have drawn below, where the X-axis shows the ice area in millions of square kilometers and the Y-axis shows the years.

The maximum extent of Arctic sea ice is usually reached in September, so later this month we will see whether the amount of navigable, ice-free water in the Arctic Ocean exceeds that of previous years. Based on the above statistics, this does not seem likely—but neither does it seem entirely impossible.

The size of northern sea ice naturally has its own scientific significance, particularly in the context of the threat of climate change. In addition, it carries major practical geopolitical importance, since during President Trump’s administration the United States has observed that Russia is clearly ahead of others in this respect.

In this sense, the slowdown of ice melting is very good news for the free Western world, as it gives the U.S. and other nations interested in northern maritime regions more time to build up their own capacities for operating in the Arctic. At the same time, this particularly benefits my home country of Finland, which is indisputably the world leader in building icebreakers and stands ready to offer its expertise to other nations as well.

Previous thought on the same topic:

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland

Attempted Homicides in Finland Reach Highest Level of the 2000s

In January–June, Finnish authorities became aware of a total of 48 homicides, which is four more than during the same period last year. Last year as well, the number of homicides increased compared to previous years.

In Finland, as many as 48 homicides were committed in the first half of this year. This is the highest number recorded for the first half of a year since 2014.

The change in the number of homicides has been rapid, as in 2023 the total was only 57. Last year, the number rose to 89, and this year—if the pace of the first half continues—it could approach one hundred.

Whether one hundred homicides is a lot or a little is not a straightforward question. One only needs to look back one generation, to the 1990s, when an average of about 140 homicides were committed annually—nearly half more than in the first half of this year.

On the other hand, there has also been an increase in attempted homicides in the first half of the year, with as many as 209 cases reported to the police during the first six months. This means that the number of attempted homicides in Finland was the highest in the entire 2000s.

Naturally, one might wonder whether something unusual lies behind the rise in homicides. So, I ran a Google search with the word “murhasi” (meaning “murdered”) to find a few random cases to examine.

In the first case, a 60-year-old man—apparently of Roma background based on his name—was reported to have been convicted in court of murdering his partner with a knife. In the second case, a 30-year-old man is suspected of murdering his mother, also with a bladed weapon. In the third case, a man in his thirties killed his parents, both over 70, with a pocketknife when they came to his apartment.

Based on these examples, the use of knives continues to be a recurring feature in Finnish homicides, meaning that in this sense nothing particularly unusual has occurred. Thus, at least for now, the share of immigrants in Finnish homicides is not emphasized in the same way as, for example, in Sweden, where by 2017 their share had already risen to 72 percent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Sudanese Man Killed His Wife – So What?
The Finnish Stabber Has a Long Track Record of Violence
The root causes of racist violence

Exceptionally Warm July Falls Short of Records

This past July was the third warmest on record globally. According to the Copernicus Climate Service, the global average temperature in July was 16.68 degrees Celsius. That is 0.45 degrees higher than the July average for the years 1991–2020, and 1.25 degrees higher than during the pre-industrial period.

In Europe, July was the fourth warmest on record, with an average temperature of 21.12 degrees—1.3 degrees above the reference period.

In Finland, however, no temperature records were approached, as for example, Helsinki’s warmest July on record still remains clearly in 2010, with a 1.2-degree margin. In Northern Finland, Sodankylä experienced its warmest July in 2018.

Finland, however, saw the second longest heatwave in recorded history, with temperatures exceeding 25 degrees Celsius for 26 consecutive days at several weather stations. However, the record remains unbroken: in 2021, a station in Southeastern Finland recorded a heatwave lasting 31 days.

According to these statistics, the average July area of Arctic sea ice was also relatively small—the sixth smallest since records began in 1979. This fits the broader pattern observed since around 2007, where the area of Arctic sea ice collapsed and has since settled into a new, lower range of variability.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

678 Bomb Attacks in Six Months: Netherlands Faces Alarming Trend

Sweden’s problems with integrating immigrants have, years ago, already led to the transformation of the former “people’s home” into a society plagued by bombings and sexual crimes committed by criminal gangs. Now, however, it seems that Sweden may have found itself a “competitor” in this regard.

This is because, according to a recent news report, the Netherlands recorded no fewer than 678 bomb attacks in the first half of this year, while the corresponding figure for Sweden was “only” 104. In the country’s second-largest city, Rotterdam, alone, there were 150 bomb attacks.

According to Dutch police spokesperson Jasmijn de Vries, “the current trend is extremely worrying, especially considering the negative impact it has on citizens’ everyday lives.” This concern is, of course, well-founded, but it should also be noted that the situations in Sweden and the Netherlands differ significantly.

In Sweden, the violence is often linked to gang violence and drug trafficking, whereas in the Netherlands it is a broader security phenomenon in which the use of homemade explosives has been “normalized” as part of criminal activity. The motives vary, and often the incidents are acts of harassment or intimidation, rather than the kind of organized gang warfare seen in Sweden. What the two countries do have in common, however, is the use of children and young boys to carry out the attacks.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Getting Populists to Govern Responsibly: What the Netherlands and Finland Can Teach Us 
Should the Dutch Do Something About the Fact That Immigrants Don't Tolerate Visiting Jews?
A woman's logic, Putin's test, and the Netherlands' change

A Sudanese Man Killed His Wife – So What?

A Sudanese man killed his wife in Tampere, Finland. The incident occurred when the man struck the woman in the neck with a knife that had a blade approximately 20 centimeters long while she was lying in bed.

After the crime, the man went to the police to report what had happened, which accelerated both the investigation and the judicial process. It was determined that the man was partially criminally responsible at the time of the murder, and he was sentenced to seven years and six months in prison. In addition, he was ordered to pay €3,750 in compensation to the victim’s relatives for their loss and €1,000 for funeral expenses.

* * *

The convicted individual was one of those whom the Finnish green-left has touted as a savior of Finnish society as the native population ages. However, he is not the only person with such a background who has committed serious crimes.

According to a Wikipedia article referencing official statistics, individuals with African backgrounds in Finland have been reported to commit crimes against life and health at 4.5 times the rate of individuals with Finnish backgrounds. Among these, persons from the same country as the perpetrator mentioned above are statistically overrepresented in such crimes at 10.1 times the rate compared to the native Finnish population. Additionally, individuals of Sudanese origin have been found to be overrepresented in assault offenses, with a 10.9-fold rate compared to those of Finnish background.

Furthermore, violent crime is not the only area where statistical overrepresentation has been observed. For example, robbery offenses committed by individuals of Sudanese origin have been reported at a rate 25.7 times higher per capita than among the native Finnish population.

* * *

It is important to note that these figures are statistical facts but are influenced by multiple social, economic, and integration-related factors. Therefore, they cannot be used to directly categorize different human groups. However, these caveats do not alter the reality that Sudanese immigrants commit serious crimes in Finnish society at a significantly high rate.

One might expect this to spark interest within Finland’s political green-left. However, based on observations so far, it is likely futile to anticipate such a shift, as the belief in the woke culture is so deeply ingrained in their worldview that even statistical data cannot change it. Consequently, they continue to advocate for the continuation and even expansion of humanitarian immigration, justifying it with factors such as Finland’s low birth rate, human rights, and cultural enrichment (Left Alliance,  Greens).

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
EU Citizens Don’t Want More Migrants – But How Can the Flow of Asylum Seekers Be Slowed? 
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The past winter was exceptionally warm in Northern Europe – according to a recent study, it was even the warmest in at least 2,000 years. That’s why it is interesting that in April, the extent of Arctic sea ice was only the ninth smallest in recorded history (see figure).

This was the case despite the fact that in March, the sea ice area in the north was the smallest since satellite records began in 1979, and April was also warmer than usual in Finland. It remains to be seen whether the Arctic Ocean will melt enough by autumn for the sea routes passing through it to gain renewed attention.

This is also tied to the fact that Finnish and Canadian shipbuilders are competing to sell icebreakers to the United States. In this respect, the Finns have a clear advantage, as only Finland currently has the capacity to build the 40 icebreakers that the U.S. needs – which may be the reason why Canada has offered the U.S. the possibility of building Canadian-designed icebreakers on U.S. soil.

However, in this context, one might imagine that the U.S. would take note of the fact that even the Canadians have just ordered an icebreaker from Finland. And so, to play it safe, they might place their order with Finland as well.

On the other hand, it is clear that 40 icebreakers cannot be built in a year or two, and for that reason, the Americans might well split the order between the competing parties. It remains to be seen how this competition will play out – or whether the entire Arctic will melt to the point that, in three years' time, there will be little to no need for icebreakers in the Arctic Ocean at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Statistics on Sexual Crimes Committed by Immigrants in Finland

Europe's irrational human rights policy has led to a sharp increase in certain crimes. Therefore, it was interesting to note that a statistic related to sexual crimes, covering the year 2023, has been published in Finland.

According to the data, people from Syria have committed sexual crimes per capita 15.5 times more often than the native Finnish population. Almost as eager perpetrators have been Congolese and Afghans, who have been 12.5 and 12.3 times more active in this regard than Finns.

Following this top three are Iraqis (10.5), Somalis (6.4), Iranians (4.7), Swedes (3.3), Estonians (1.5), and Ukrainians (1.4). Next come Finns themselves, and finally, a rare acknowledgment must be given.

I do not often praise Russians, but in the interest of fairness, credit must be given where it is due. And now it is, as Russians have committed sexual crimes 20% less per capita than Finns, with a ratio of 0.8.

The high figure for Swedes is likely influenced by the good connections between Sweden and Finland. These are used not only by native Swedes but also by so-called "new Swedes"—that is, Syrians, Congolese, Afghans, and others residing in Sweden.

It should be noted that this statistic does not take age distribution into account. Since the immigrant population from developing countries is generally younger than the native Finnish population, the actual difference is likely somewhat smaller than the numbers above suggest.

On the other hand, the opposite may be true for Russians if their average age is higher than that of Finns. Unfortunately, I could not find this information, and neither could artificial intelligence, so this question remains open.

All in all, the statistics discussed here indicate that Finnish immigration policy is particularly harmful to women. And that is why it is strange that women are more willing than men to accept asylum seekers from the nationalities that appear at the top of this list.

I find this very odd, and I cannot explain the reason for it. However, it would be interesting to hear what women themselves think about this matter.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Immigrants, Gangs, Decisions, and Self-Interest
Over a Hundred Child Abusers Caught, and the Far-Left's Paavo Arhinmäki Gains Followers in Finland
A Homosexual Rape Underscores the Need for Change in Immigration Policy

Who Tried to Abduct a Two-Year-Old Child from Their Grandmother?

An unknown man attempted to abduct a two-year-old child from the child’s grandmother in Helsinki, Finland. The child had been sitting on a bench at the railway station until the grandmother noticed the man's intentions and quickly took the child into her arms.

After his failed attempt, the man fled the scene, and the police patrol that arrived was unable to locate him. However, a description of the suspect was obtained, and he was captured on surveillance cameras.

The suspect is estimated to be around 170 cm tall, of average build, and a young man dressed in dark athletic clothing, a black jacket, and Adidas tracksuit pants. A distinctive feature was his bob haircut.

Each of you can also reflect on the skin color and religion of the person who attempted to abduct the baby based on these characteristics, even though they were not mentioned in the news. As a hint for this reflection, I will tell you that the average height of young Finnish men is over 180 cm and their eye color is usually blue.

After reflecting on this, dear readers, you may also consider which area of politics is relevant in this (and many other) cases. And what could be done about it in Finland and other Western countries?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Police Ban Public Fight Between Neo-Nazis and Street Gangs in Finland
Immigrants, Gangs, Decisions, and Self-Interest
Is the UK's Democracy Facing an Existential Crisis?

Why Is the Case of Issam Rafil, Convicted of a Sexual Offense in Finland, Important for Britain?

I begin this text with a court decision that I hope will gain attention in Britain, particularly at 10 Downing Street. The quote is from Finland's largest daily newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, and reads as follows: "Helsinki District Court sentenced Issam Rafil, born in 1984, to three years and four months in prison for two rapes."

I mention this because, although such crimes—occurring with increasing frequency—are often left unspoken in Finland, they occasionally make their way into the country's leading media outlets. This was also the case with the aforementioned rapist. In this matter, the real winner is, above all, freedom of speech, which the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has recently sought to curtail (see also this text).

More generally, Finland finds itself in a difficult position as sexual crimes are rising rapidly. According to the country's statistics agency, approximately 6,700 sexual offenses were reported between January and September 2024. Of these, around 1,400 were classified as rapes under the new sexual offense law, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year.

According to a police inspector, the high numbers can partly be explained by the fact that sexual crimes occurring online easily create spikes in police statistics. On the internet, the number of victims can quickly rise to hundreds.

I believe this explanation is accurate. Nevertheless, I also think that certain cultural factors play a role in this issue. For this reason, I find it highly necessary that Petteri Orpo's government program for 2024–2027 includes as many as 32 measures. These include learning the Finnish language, gaining employment, familiarizing oneself with Finnish society, and learning to adhere to its rules. In relation to the theme I am addressing here, the last of these is the most important.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Citizen Journalism, Free Speech, and EU Challenges
Finnish Immigration Policy Aims to Maximize Benefits and Minimize Drawbacks
The UK Prime Minister Took a One-Sided Stance on the Country's Protests

The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record

The year 2024 was apparently the warmest year in recorded temperature history. Therefore, I decided to examine the development of the northern sea ice area this year based on data collected by NASA's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

According to recent statistics, however, the northern polar ice defied my expectations. Its area was not the smallest on record but larger than in 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 as seen in the figure below. 

Additionally, its average area was not the smallest in any month of the measurement history. As I wrote earlier, in September, when the ice reaches its annual minimum area, it was the fourth smallest in recorded history.

This past December, however, the northern sea ice was the second smallest on record, so I am eagerly waiting to see what happens in January. Could it possibly shrink further than in previous years, giving hope for the opening of the Northeast Passage for maritime traffic?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

Terrorism Landscape in the EU Contradicts the Narrative Presented by EU Politicians and Media

Europol published a report on major developments and trends in the terrorism landscape in the EU in 2023, based on data provided by Member States. According to the report, a total of 120 terrorist attacks (98 completed, 9 failed, and 13 foiled) were carried out in 7 EU Member States. This represents a clear increase compared to previous years.

The highest number of terrorist attacks were perpetrated by separatist terrorists—a total of 70—followed by left-wing and anarchist actors, who were responsible for 32 attacks, of which 23 were completed.

Jihadists carried out 14 terror attacks, five of which were completed. Additionally, Europol reported two right-wing terrorist attacks. Jihadist terrorist attacks were the most lethal, resulting in six deaths and twelve injuries.

A total of 426 individuals were arrested for terrorist offenses, 334 of whom were related to jihadist terrorism. Concluded court proceedings in 14 EU Member States resulted in 290 convictions and 68 acquittals for terrorist offenses.

The report is very interesting, considering that European politicians and media seem to be most worried about right-wing terrorists while almost neglecting assaults carried out by far-left activists. The first question that arises is: why don’t they see the danger posed by the aggressive left? Or, if they do, why don’t they talk about it?

The second question relates to jihadist terrorism, which clearly stems from the liberal immigration policies implemented over the past decades. Why do most politicians and journalists still fail to see where the continuation of these policies might lead? And why do they vilify those who have warned about this?

Finally, I would like to point out that most separatists in Europe are more left-leaning than neutral or aligned with the political right. This leads to the conclusion that the share of left-wing terrorism would be even more significant if separatists were grouped together with left-wing and anarchist actors.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What will Happen Tomorrow, on the Anniversary of the Attack by the Terrorists on October 7th Last Year?
Three Islamists Arrested in Finland on Suspicion of Belonging to a Terrorist Group
The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City

Finns - Among the World’s Best

In Finland, Independence Day is associated with various traditions. One of the most significant has been the reception hosted by the President, where living World War II veterans have traditionally played a central role. This year, however, they were not invited to the main celebration; instead, a separate event was organized earlier this week to honor those who saved Finland's independence.

The heroes who preserved Finland's independence during the turmoil of World War II are still remembered on television, with the screening of the war film The Unknown Soldier. The film is based on a book of the same name, which depicts the experiences of a machine gun company from 1941 to 1944.

As for me, I plan to honor the heroes who safeguarded our independence by reflecting on a few statistics about Finnish fighter pilots. These figures come from Kari Stenman's book, Finland’s Best Fighter Aces and Their Aircraft.

* * *

Among Finnish pilots, the most successful in destroying Soviet aircraft during World War II was Ilmari Juutilainen, whose exceptional skill resulted in the enemy losing a remarkable 94 aircraft. Of these, six were destroyed in a single air battle on June 30, 1944.

He reported the battle as follows: "We were on a patrol mission with eight aircraft. I led the squadron to Tali, where we encountered enemy fighters. Over Viipuri, I fired on an AC from behind, tearing off most of its rudders. It crashed at the edge of Torkkeli Park near Punaisenlähteen Square, leaving behind a mist that looked like a fuel vapor cloud."

"The fight continued toward Säiniö. Near Säiniö, I shot at another AC from behind and above, setting it on fire. It crashed between Säiniö and Karhusuo, still burning on the ground."

"I saw over 50 bombers approaching from the east, accompanied by fighters. I regrouped our planes between Juustila and Tali, where we clashed with the Russians. Over Juustila, I shot down one Yak-9, which crashed in flames. Another Yak-9, its right wing shot off, crashed in the same area."

"At one point, we protected Stukas, but after that, more Russian bombers and fighters appeared. I couldn’t get a result. Then I saw Il-2 planes without cover. I attacked sharply from the side, and one Il-2 crashed in flames into Juustila peninsula."

"At the same time, I was surrounded by La-5s. After a five-minute duel with one of them, I managed to set it on fire at an altitude of 2,000 meters. It crashed in flames 3–4 kilometers north of the Il-2 crash site along the road. My ammunition ran out, so I had to end the battle, though I still had about 10 minutes of fuel. The battle altitude ranged from 5,000 to 50 meters. My aircraft was MT457."

* * *

Juutilainen had also participated ten days earlier on June 20, 1944, the most active day of aerial combat on Finland’s front lines. On that day, Finnish pilots shot down a total of 51 Soviet aircraft in three consecutive air battles—without suffering any losses of their own.

This alone demonstrated the extraordinary skill of Finnish pilots. Further evidence lies in the overall statistics: during the Continuation War, Finnish pilots destroyed approximately 1,100 Soviet aircraft while losing only 53 of their own pilots.

Even among the best, some stood out. None of the top ten Finnish fighter aces, ranked by aerial victories, were killed during the Winter War or the Continuation War. Together, they accounted for 488 Soviet aircraft shot down.

This achievement was remarkable, especially considering that during the Winter War, Finnish fighters were largely outdated models such as the Gloster Gladiator II, Fokker D.XXI, and Fiat G.50. At the start of the Continuation War, the mainstay was the Brewster 239—a model so disliked by American pilots that they nicknamed it the "Flying Coffin." The Finnish Air Force also used a mix of captured Soviet aircraft acquired through German assistance and some Morane-Saulnier 406 fighters, which were gifted by France during the Winter War but were already obsolete before the conflict began.

The situation changed in April 1943 with the arrival of Messerschmitt Bf 109 G fighters. These aircraft allowed Finnish pilots to fully showcase their skills.

One indication of their proficiency is that thereafter, enemy pilots never managed to shoot down any Finnish bombers protected by these fighters. Moreover, unlike their German counterparts, Finnish pilots rarely damaged their Messerschmitts during takeoff, despite the aircraft being known for its challenging handling characteristics.

* * *

The exceptional skill of Finnish fighter pilots can be attributed to various factors. My guess is that it stems from similar genetic or cultural traits that have made Finns, relative to their population, the most dominant motorsport athletes in the world.

After all, this nation of five million has produced three Formula 1 World Champions and eight World Rally Champions. Furthermore, the next World Rally Championship title is highly likely to go to Kalle Rovanperä, a 24-year-old prodigy who took a sabbatical year and is arguably the most talented motorsport athlete of all time.

With these memories and reflections, I wish you—my esteemed readers—a very happy Independence Day as we celebrate 107 years of Finnish sovereignty.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago

Football-Associated Violence Is a Personality Problem

I have always wondered how sports can drive people completely out of their minds. Football, in particular, has been and continues to be exceptionally effective in this regard.

A recent example comes from Guinea, where a referee’s decision displeased part of the audience. This sparked violence that led to the deaths of dozens of people and, ultimately, the burning down of the local police station.

Guinea, of course, is a developing country, but football has also caused European and even Nordic sports fans to lose control from time to time. For instance, in Sweden, police had to intervene in a total of 24 matches in 2023 after situations spiraled out of control, with officers themselves becoming targets of violence.

Football is famously the world's most popular sport. According to Wikipedia, it is played by over 250 million people worldwide and is also the most-watched sport on television.

For this reason, violence associated with football is a serious issue. This is underscored by the fact that, in 1969, El Salvador and Honduras engaged in a military conflict triggered by a football match, though tensions between the countries were already high.

It was therefore intriguing to see that a recent scientific review article suggested that numerous psychological factors are at the root of football-related violence. These include personality traits, empathy, and materialism.

Research has also identified a positive correlation between sensation-seeking tendencies and sports violence, as well as a mitigating effect of cultural intelligence and tolerance on the likelihood of people resorting to unruly behavior during football matches. Among these, tolerance stands out as a particularly significant factor.

It seems, then, that it might be better if some individuals refrained from following football and redirected their interests elsewhere. This would benefit not only football players and other spectators but society as a whole. 

Unfortunately, I believe they don't want to do this – and precisely for the same reasons why they should.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Everyone has the right
Violent demographic changes in Denmark
Increase of violence by youngsters in Finnish towns

Misleading Claims About European Forests

Finnish forestry professor Annika Kangas wrote in a column for a forestry magazine about two eye-opening cases, neither of which brings credit to research in the field.

According to her, an international research group in 2020 claimed (in this publication), based on satellite image analysis, that the area of forest logging in Europe had increased significantly. In Finland, the increase was allegedly 54 percent, and in Sweden, 36 percent. Furthermore, the biomass removed was estimated to have increased by up to 69 percent.

However, statistics from the same period indicated that the average logging area in Finland had only increased by 7.6 percent between 2016 and 2018 compared to the years 2011–2015, and the volume removed had increased by 13.8 percent. In Sweden, logging had even decreased.

When this data was compared in detail with official forest inventory data from Finland and Sweden, it became evident that advancements in remote sensing technology had significantly improved the probability of detecting logging during the observed period. The large increase in biomass removal, on the other hand, stemmed from a misinterpretation: the assumption that biomass is entirely removed in thinnings—an incorrect assumption.

The analysis relied on readily available global datasets that describe changes in forest canopy cover over time. However, these datasets do not allow for distinguishing between natural disturbances, thinnings, clear-cuttings, or even permanent deforestation.

This was information that the researchers who published these erroneous results should have been aware of. Or at the very least, they and other researchers working with remote sensing data should know by now; yet these same time series continue to be used in other studies, such as those modeling the impact of logging on certain bird species, for which they are entirely unsuitable.

Then, last summer, another claim was introduced (I could not identify the original report Kangas was referring to), asserting that the area of forests with trees at least 15 meters tall had significantly decreased in Europe. The largest decrease—about 20 percent—was again said to have occurred in Finland and Sweden.

This, however, is untrue. According to extensive field measurements, the area of such forests had actually increased during the observed period—by 25 percent in Sweden and by 35 percent in Finland. No explanation has been found for these errors, but they share a common feature with the earlier study: they rely solely on remote sensing. Field measurements were not conducted, nor were the remote sensing results validated on the ground.

This highlights the intense competition for research funding, which demands the production and rapid publication of new findings in large quantities. This competition often leads to the hasty adoption of new, modern methods, without first establishing whether these methods are truly suitable for the intended purpose.

In the worst cases, this rush can result in disasters like those described above, which may—even after corrections have been made—leave the general public and policymakers with an incorrect impression. For example, I have repeatedly encountered claims on social media suggesting that large trees are declining in Finland—a misconception likely fueled by the second study discussed here and the associated reporting before corrections were made.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Finnish forest is life-threatening to asylum-seekers
Why are boreal forest fires on the rise everywhere but in Finland?
A new justification is needed for environmental activists