South Africa: From Post-Apartheid Optimism to Economic Decline and Anti-Immigrant Sentiment

According to the prevailing socially liberal view, there are no differences between groups of people and their cultures that would justify ranking them in order of superiority. Correspondingly, according to an earlier narrative—which the present-day mainstream categorically rejects—it is precisely these factors that would explain the differences between nations.

From time to time, I have examined the development of countries such as South Africa and Haiti on this blog within precisely this framework. The former emerged from apartheid and was handed over to Black-led government in reasonably good shape—at least by African standards. The latter, meanwhile, is the only country in the Western Hemisphere with a predominantly Black population.

* * *

South Africa's economy grew rapidly after the transition to Black rule, as the country opened up to international trade, foreign investment and economic cooperation following the lifting of sanctions imposed because of apartheid.

However, the country's economy began to decline after 2011 and has since settled at a lower level. This development is clearly illustrated by the image from the World Bank that I have reproduced below.

* * *

Yesterday, Finland's national public broadcasting company Yle published an article about South Africans' attitudes towards immigrants. According to the report, hostility towards foreigners has increased there recently, with people blaming immigrants from other African countries for crime and for taking jobs away from locals.

The situation has become so absurd that even South Africans have been beaten up because they were mistaken for foreigners simply because they did not speak Zulu. This is despite the fact that the Zulu are not the only dark-skinned ethnic group in the country.

* * *

The problem is evidently a serious one. Approximately 4.5 million of the country's residents are known to have been born abroad, but there is not even reliable information available on the number of people residing in the country illegally. In this respect, the situation resembles that of Finland and other European countries: many South African companies employ this workforce, even though the country simultaneously has an unemployment rate of as much as 30 percent. Yle's report did not explain why this is the case, but anyone can naturally suspect that saving on labour costs may well have something to do with it.

According to a researcher interviewed by Yle, the state also benefits from an 'anti-immigrant narrative' because it turns foreigners into scapegoats. At the same time, it diverts attention from the political leadership's failure to provide public services.

Our state broadcaster, for its part, concluded its report by telling us that, in the opinion of one illegal immigrant, returning to his or her home country is difficult because employment prospects there are poor and children would struggle to adapt to the local way of life. Consequently, this person would rather move to Europe, because it is safe here and children have opportunities to receive an education.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Brave New World Will Be Born from Today’s Fertility
South Africa: life without a culture of maintenance
Should forbidden questions be answered or not?

Crime Statistics Expose the Failure of European Immigration Policy

The University of Helsinki has published an overview based on crime statistics. Every European should, of course, read it for themselves, but here I would like to highlight two interesting points that are relevant to European immigration policy and the future.

The first concerns the number of people suspected of assault in cases solved in Finland, broken down by nationality. According to the figures, the highest rates of assault are attributed to nationals of the former Sudan, with 843 suspected assaults per 10,000 Sudanese nationals. In other words, nationals of the former Sudan have committed one assault for approximately every twelve people.

Next come Iraqis and Syrians, with rates of 555 and 460, respectively. They are followed by Syrians (460), Senegalese (432), nationals of present-day Sudan (398), Gambians (395), Angolans (391), Congolese (375), Somalis (366), and Afghans (281).

After these come the first Europeans, namely Serbs (272), followed by Tunisians (246), Moroccans (216), Bosnians (189), Eritreans (178), Nigerians (160), Algerians (147), Cameroonians (133), Swedes (128), North Macedonians (128), Latvians (126), Georgians (114), Lithuanians (110), Tanzanians (109), Romanians (109), Belgians (108), and Estonians (106). The rate for Finns is 51.

* * *

The second statistic I would like to highlight concerns sexual offences—and once again, the figures represent offences per 10,000 nationals. Once again, nationals of the former Sudan top the list, with a rate of 241, which translates to approximately one rape for every 41 Sudanese nationals. They are followed by Eritreans (199) and Tunisians (136).

After these three high-ranking groups comes a surprise: Slovaks are in fourth place (136), followed by Senegalese (123), Iraqis (104), Congolese (94), Syrians (87), Bulgarians (81), Afghans (77), Gambians (64), Somalis (62), Cubans (61), and Moroccans (60). After that, there is a considerably larger gap.

The list then continues with Serbs (45), Norwegians (40), Romanians (34), Britons (30), Iranians (30), Georgians (28), Turks (28), Algerians (26), Nigerians (22), and people from Myanmar (20). The rate for Finns is 10.

* * *

In my view, these statistics provide excellent reasons to tighten European immigration policy, particularly asylum policy, because the groups at the top of both lists appear to consist largely of people from countries whose nationals have come to seek protection from violence in their home countries. However, it would appear that, in addition to these people, there are also many who have come to Western countries with criminal intentions.

It would therefore be excellent if this reality were taken into account in the programmes of future Western governments. Even before that, Europeans should understand the importance of advancing this cause through their voting choices and refrain from voting for candidates and parties known to be indifferent to the crime risks associated with immigration—or even to be seeking to promote the entry of people belonging to nationalities associated with a high risk of rape.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Ahmed Case: A Tragedy Foreseen
Perspectives on Immigration Restrictions in Finland and the U.S.
Finally, Honest Reporting on Immigration and Crime

The Myth of the Hopeless Young Generation – An Obviously False Narrative

Finland’s national public broadcaster, Yle, speculated that the reason young Europeans are running riot in the streets of European cities is that their parents expect them to get an education, work, and have faith in the future, but offer them nothing in return except insecurity, expensive housing, and political hot air. And the result, according to Yle, is that young people’s belief in a better tomorrow is wavering, and rather than simply waiting for change, they are demanding it in the streets.

Consequently, many cities in France have resorted to imposing curfews to protect people and businesses. In Italy, meanwhile, the government has been forced to send hundreds of army troops to Milan to maintain order.

* * *

Yle’s explanation of the events unfolding across Europe in recent days raises the question of why, for example, Finnish young people did not behave in the same way during the Great Famine of the late seventeenth century, when roughly a quarter or even a third of Finland’s population died of starvation, and those who survived could hardly have expected to enjoy proper meals either. Instead, hunger was staved off with pettuleipä, bread made with pine bark, rather than proper flour.

Nor did Finnish youth run riot in the 1860s, when the Finnish famine killed seven per cent of the Finnish population. One might well imagine that young people back then had even less faith in a better tomorrow than Europeans do today.

There was probably little such faith throughout the seventeenth century either, when Sweden — of which Finland was then a part — waged continuous wars across Europe, and a huge proportion of young men were conscripted into the army. In practice, this meant a very real likelihood of dying either on the battlefield or from some disease. Yet Finland remained relatively peaceful, and young people did not set fire to churches in Turku or plunder the riches of Oulu’s wealthy tar merchants.

Nor is there any need to focus on wars or times of crisis. From the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth, downward social mobility was by far the most common trajectory for boys in particular. Although people generally belonged to the peasant class in the early eighteenth century, following the Great Wrath — the Russian occupation of Finland during the Great Northern War — the family farm almost invariably went to the eldest son. Younger sons therefore typically had to become farmhands or tenant farmers, unless their parents managed to marry them off as sons-in-law to a farm that had no sons of its own.

In the next generation, they moved down another rung on the social ladder. The younger sons of tenant farmers became farmhands or, particularly from the late nineteenth century onward, industrial workers and lumberjacks who felled trees with hand tools. Yet these young men did not engage in the kind of rioting we are now witnessing in France and Italy, even though everyone knew that most of them would have to spend their lives in a lower social class than their parents.

Rebellion did not break out until 1918, when the revolution in Russia created a power vacuum. Two militant organisations — the Red Guards and the White Guards — were formed to fill it. Their eventual confrontation became inevitable, at the latest, when the bourgeois-dominated Senate declared the Civil Guards to be the government’s armed forces. The Red Guard leadership could hardly accept this, and therefore embarked on a military campaign that ended disastrously for their side.

* * *

Similar examples can be found in other European countries as well, since Finland and its young people are not — and never have been — exceptions. I therefore suspect that the current rioting by young people has some entirely different cause than their supposedly bleak prospects for the future.

One reason for this is that, in reality, people’s lives are easier today than at any other point in human history. In Europe, nobody dies of starvation, and everyone has the opportunity to improve their social standing through education, provided they have the motivation and ability to do so. Hardly anyone dies of infectious diseases either, and in Western countries, young men are no longer dragged off to war to fight for the foolish ambitions of their inbred kings or emperors.

* * *

Finally, I would like to record here a social media post published yesterday on this subject by Heidi Hagelin, one of Finland’s leading journalists:

“This makes me quite happy. They stayed quiet for a long time, even as the future kept becoming more uncertain. A home, a job, and a future. Pretty basic things. If it feels like those things are impossible to achieve, then…”

That really left me speechless. I will therefore refrain from further comment, other than to note that the journalist later came to admit herself that she had been stupid.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Forecast of Population Replacement in Western Europe
How Immigration Has Reshaped European Politics

The Ahmed Case: A Tragedy Foreseen

Now 32-year-old Ahmed Abdullahi Ahmed came to public attention in the Finnish media. You can probably guess why without me having to spell it out.

According to the court, Ahmed was guilty of raping a teenage girl and was sentenced to two years and two months in prison. He was also ordered to pay the victim €6,500 in compensation for suffering, as well as more than €3,500 in her legal costs.

* * *

Thus, yet another Finnish girl has had the opportunity to “enjoy” the kind of experiences that were widely discussed ten years ago, when people from developing countries poured across our borders at the invitation of then Prime Minister Juha Sipilä (Centre Party). And none of this should come as a surprise to anyone.

The reason is that, among others, I myself wrote in 2015, on the basis of rape statistics concerning people arriving from the Middle East and Africa, that approximately one in every thousand men living in Finland who belong to such a nationality will, at some point in his life, be caught committing rape and end up in prison for it.

At the same time, I spelled out in no uncertain terms that “this is connected to Finland’s refugee policy in the sense that by admitting a thousand people belonging to such a group into Finland, we are simultaneously making a decision that a woman—most likely belonging to the native population—will be raped on our soil.”

And even earlier, in 2010, I stated that “rapists and other criminals are, to a large extent, people brought here by humanitarian immigration. Thus, while we help people escape miserable conditions by bringing them here, we also undermine the safety of women, especially Finnish women.”

* * *

Fifteen years have therefore passed, like water flowing through Europe's rivers, and none of my predictions has gone wrong. Not even though, at the time, they ran counter to the views and practical policies of almost all European politicians.

It would therefore be a good idea to remind you, my esteemed readers, of one more article I wrote in 2015 in which my predictions proved correct. I will not reproduce its text here, but I encourage anyone who doubts my words to read the full piece here (in Finnish, but AI tools or Google Translate can help you read it in your own language). 

At the same time, I would remind them that I am not dead yet. Consequently, the contents of that article do not yet concern the present day; rather, they remain a vision of the future—but undoubtedly a much more credible one than they were eleven years ago.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Professor’s Ten-Point Plan to Fix Europe’s Immigration Policy
Is Immigration Driving the Nordic Countries Apart?
The Swedish Immigration Catastrophe – A Cautionary Tale

The Regulatory Web Is Driving Europe’s Economic Decline

As you, my esteemed readers, have undoubtedly noticed, the European Union’s position as one of the world’s leading economic regions has eroded over the past two decades. This is illustrated by the chart below, which shows the development of gross domestic product (GDP).

One clear reason for this unfavourable trend is the steadily growing — indeed, quite explosive — proliferation of well-intentioned but highly diverse regulatory requirements, namely EU directives. As a researcher, I have even experienced firsthand how they form a kind of regulatory web that effectively prevents publicly funded scientific knowledge from being translated into technological solutions for businesses and drivers of economic growth in the EU.

This has naturally contributed significantly to the EU falling behind both the United States and China in technological and economic development. This is clearly illustrated, for example, by patent application figures. While the Chinese have filed 1.4 million patent applications so far this year, the Americans 262,000, the Japanese 222,000 and even the South Koreans 186,000, the three major EU countries of Germany, France and Italy have filed just over 60,000 applications combined.

* * *

In this respect, it is encouraging that a number of northern member states are seeking to cut the funding allocated to the EU’s central administration, whose bureaucratic inertia spreads into virtually every corner of the Union. That is why I noted with satisfaction a brief news report stating that Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party) had announced that Finland could not accept Ireland’s proposal to reduce the EU budget by a mere €140 billion.

According to Orpo, “some savings have been identified, but far too few, and in some cases in the wrong areas.” By the latter, he was referring to budget cuts affecting defence, research and new technologies. In other words, the cuts are being directed at the very areas of expenditure that are most important for the EU’s future, rather than at socialist-style spending, such as cohesion funds intended to reduce disparities between different regions of the Union.

* * *

It remains to be seen, however, what the EU’s administrative machinery will ultimately decide. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark share Finland’s position, but opposition is particularly strong in Southern and Eastern Europe, whose countries benefit from and advocate for cohesion funding — funding that, in many respects, resembles development aid.

Some kind of resolution may be reached at next week’s summit in Brussels. We should hardly expect miracles, however, since all political systems seem to have an unfortunate tendency to expand bureaucracy and endlessly quibble over details rather than trust in the creative power of the market’s invisible hand.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
EU Carbon Sink Policy Lacks Cost-Effectiveness
Polish Politics: A Quiet Success Story
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations

A Forecast of Population Replacement in Western Europe

As you know very well – my dear readers – immigration is rapidly changing Europe. In this connection, I came across the following image from Sweden on social media.

It shows, for the countries of Western Europe, the years in which the native population will – according to a mathematical model – become a minority in their own country. The image shows that Switzerland will be the first to reach this point. There, however, the change will not be as culturally significant as in many other European countries, because the majority of immigrants are educated Westerners.

The situation is different in Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Austria and the United Kingdom, which follow next, and where immigration is dominated by people from developing countries. This will mean profound changes in these societies.

* * *

According to the map, Finland would be the last corner of Western Europe where the native population becomes a minority. Thus, decision-makers here still have time to act even after the first European countries have gone through their own changes and their consequences are visible to everyone.

In this context, it is also worth noting that a major change in attitudes towards immigration is taking place in many European societies. As a result, political forces critical of immigration are rapidly gaining strength (example, another).

It may therefore well be that the demographic change in Western European societies will not take place according to the timetable shown on the map, but considerably more slowly. Nevertheless, sooner or later it will happen, due to immigrants of developing-country origin having a higher birth rate than the native European population.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Votes for Sale: Sweden’s Changing Political Culture
Hamtramck: A Test Case for Mass Immigration
From Burden to Benefit: Reforming Immigration in Finland

Arctic Sea Ice Is Growing Despite Summer-Like Weather in Finland

Finnish meteorologist Pekka Pouta reported that in some parts of Finland, the so-called thermal summer is still continuing. This means that the average daily temperature remains mostly above ten degrees Celsius.

This is unusual, as we are already in October, meaning that according to the calendar we are in the middle of autumn. In addition, according to Pouta's forecast, warm air currents will reach Finland in the coming days as well, so the summery weather looks set to continue.

* * *

Based on this, one might imagine that the melting of the ice fields in the Arctic Ocean would likewise continue at a rapid pace. This is not the case, however. During the past few days, Arctic sea ice has expanded rapidly, to the extent that according to the latest data (from the day before yesterday), its extent was greater for this time of year than at any point since 2014.

In fact, Arctic sea ice begins to grow every year in September, including this year. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the average extent of Arctic sea ice in September was the largest since 2022, as shown in the figure below. 

The figure also shows that the average extent of Arctic sea ice in September has, in practice, neither increased nor decreased significantly since 2007. Consequently, the enthusiasm—particularly among the Russians—to use the Northeast Passage for freight transport does not appear likely to diminish, unless the trend in sea-ice extent returns to the downward trajectory seen between 1995 and 2007.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Recent Arctic Sea Ice Decline Is Not Accelerating
Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting
Stalled Melting of Northern Polar Ice Buys the West Time to Strengthen Arctic Capabilities

Sex-Dependent Quackery: An Evidence Problem in Sex-Difference Research

One of the consequences of the value liberalism that has become increasingly popular in Western countries over the past few decades has been a desire to identify gender-dependent needs in different types of medical treatment. It was therefore interesting to note that Madeline T. Olivier and her colleagues demonstrated in their recent study that claims about sex occur disproportionately often in the titles of neuroscience research articles compared with other fields of medicine.

The researchers therefore wanted to know what kind of research evidence these articles were based on. For this reason, they analyzed 200 recent articles in the behavioral and brain sciences whose titles made a claim about an effect dependent on sex or gender identity.

* * *

The researchers found that only 24 percent of the analyzed research reports supported the claim with appropriate evidence—that is, an effect between the sexes was statistically tested, and the results were consistent with the claim. In nine percent of the studies, an appropriate test was described, but the results were incomplete or entirely absent. In another nine percent, the results directly contradicted the claim being made. In the majority of the articles (58%), the statistical significance of differences in effects between the sexes was not compared at all.

Appropriate evidence was least common in research on behavioral sciences, clinical neurology, neuroscience, psychiatry, psychology, and substance use (18%), and most common in psychology (39%). In animal studies, claims were supported by appropriate evidence significantly less often (15%) than in studies involving humans (34%).

Particularly concerning is the fact that the use of appropriate analytical methods was not associated with the prestige of the journal or the number of citations received by the article. In other words, peer review in the field in question has not functioned properly. Thus, neither the publication venue nor the number of citations an article has received can be used to infer the reliability of the claims made in the research.

* * *

Overall, the researchers concluded that claims about effects dependent on sex or gender identity made in the behavioral and brain sciences are most often not based on appropriate evidence. They therefore called into question—and effectively characterized as quackery—the use of sex-dependent research as a basis for medical treatments.

This is an issue that should be recognized both among European physicians and among civil society movements concerned with women's rights and gender diversity. Above all, it should be recognized by wellbeing services counties struggling with their finances, which can hardly be expected to benefit from spending their scarce resources on treatments related to sex-specific neurology or psychology.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health
Who Is Interested in the Rights of Nigerien Homosexuals?
Racial Bias in U.S. Traffic Policing

Votes for Sale: Sweden’s Changing Political Culture

In Sweden, electoral fraud was discovered earlier this week that enabled Mohamed Abdukadir Ali (Swedish Left Party), who has an immigrant background, to gain a seat in the Riksdag. Last night, another case was reported.

This case also involved a candidate from the Swedish Left Party who has an immigrant background and who had secured a seat in the Riksdag by paying voters a reward for voting for him. In other words, by buying votes and bribing the electoral cattle.

* * *

These cases show that Finland´s western neighbour is changing from a civilized Western democracy into something resembling a developing country in spiritual terms. They also confirm that a person from a developing country does not become Western merely by moving from a developing country to Europe, but retains the values and practices of their old culture when they arrive.

This is why the mass migration across the Mediterranean at the beginning of this millennium will profoundly transform Europe and European identity. Moreover, this development is accelerated by the fact that the problems caused by these migrants have been treated—at least in the mainstream media—time and again as isolated incidents, while refusing to understand that their underlying causes are deeply rooted in their culture and possibly—even probably—in their genes.

One can only hope that this error of thinking will be corrected and that people will learn to look at the facts as they are. This is so despite the fact that those facts are strongly at odds with the prevailing value-liberal dogmas about human nature and culture in the West.

* * *

Otherwise, it will be interesting to see how the cases that have now come to light are dealt with in Sweden. The election result was extremely close, as illustrated by the fact that replacing the two left-wing party candidates caught engaging in electoral fraud with right-wing candidates would also result in a shift in the balance of power between the right and the green-left bloc in the Riksdag.

This will of course not be done, but, for example, holding repeat elections in the constituencies of these two candidates would be justified and could lead to a change in the balance of power. But only if voters genuinely wanted to defend Swedish democracy, withdraw their support from the party of the candidates guilty of fraud, and cast their votes for preserving Sweden as a Western democratic society.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will European Culture Collapse Under the Weight of Islamic Immigration?
Will an ongoing trial open the eyes of politicians?
A notable difference between Social Democrats in Sweden and Finland

Russia’s Elections Are Over Before They Begin

Russia’s elections for the State Duma, the country’s parliament, end today. Yet the winner was clear even before the voting began, because the chamber consists almost entirely of Putin and war supporters, after nationwide participation by the country’s only openly anti-war party was blocked.

That is why the most interesting thing about the election is not its outcome but what happens at noon today. Russia’s opposition has urged people to vote at precisely that time, in the hope of creating crowds at polling stations.

The possible crowds are, of course, of no significance in themselves. But their size could provide an indication of the level of support for the opposition — or at least of how many of its supporters have the courage to publicly express a political opinion against the regime. Even that, however, has little significance beyond perhaps causing some irritation to Putin — assuming anyone dares to tell him about it.

* * *

The State Duma itself has an interesting history. Its first incarnation was created after Russia suffered defeat by Japan in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–05. The defeat was a tremendous humiliation for the Russians, as it was the first time a European great power had lost a war to an Asian state.

The defeat contributed to the revolution that broke out in Russia. As a result, the tsar’s absolute power was curtailed and a representative assembly, the Duma, was established. At the time, however, only a small proportion of Russians were allowed to take part in its elections. The impact of the lost war also extended to Finland, where the first Red Guards were established, the first Russification period came to an end, and Finland — then a Grand Duchy of the Russian Empire — gained a unicameral parliament.

* * *

There was no need for a Duma during the Soviet Union, but it was re-established in 1993, during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin. It serves as the legislative body of the Russian Federation, responsible for passing federal laws as well as exercising parliamentary oversight over the government and other state institutions.

In practice, the Duma’s significance has dwindled to almost nothing under Vladimir Putin, and it has become more of a false façade for his dictatorship: it looks like democracy, but in reality it is merely a dictator’s rubber stamp. If even that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Independence and the Sword of Damocles
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?

German Democracy at Work: The People’s Will Prevails

The German state elections have attracted an exceptional amount of attention because they are bringing about a historic change, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party pushing the long-standing party of power, the Christian Democrats (CDU), into the ranks of the minor parties.

We got a preview of this a couple of weeks ago, and more is coming this weekend in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The main source of dissatisfaction is Germany’s immigration policy, which is transforming the entire society in a radical way.

In addition to immigration policy, many other things are changing in Germany because the AfD also has other policy positions that differ from those of the CDU and the Social Democrats, with whom it has shared power. Examples include the party’s policies on the euro, Russia, and climate change, all of which differ from the views of the political establishment in Berlin and also from those of most other European leaders.

* * *

As a result, coverage of the AfD’s success in the Finnish media has at times resembled disaster reporting (example, another). At the same time, it has been forgotten that the German political transformation is about nothing more and nothing less than a democracy functioning exemplary well, in which change follows from the political elite pursuing policies against the will of the people. In other words, from allowing the mass migration of people from developing countries that has radically transformed German society.

At the same time, the political transformation in Germany’s states demonstrates the beauty of democracy because it forces a reluctant elite to accept the will of the people. This would not be possible in pseudo-democracies such as Russia or China, but in Germany, popular government appears to be working.

* * *

That is why we Finns—and our media as well—should also praise and celebrate the functioning of German democracy. At the same time, we should encourage Finns to use the power granted to us by the Constitution.

According to it, “state power in Finland belongs to the people.” And we will have the opportunity to exercise that power next time on April 18 next year.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Lessons from the Abdul Ballout Case
The Forgotten Empire That Shaped Modern Europe
Shock in Berlin: AfD Surges, Merz Stumbles

Paternal Cousin Beats Maternal Cousin as a Spouse

Marriage between close relatives—or, more precisely, the inbreeding among children born as a result of such unions—is harmful. This is because offspring are more likely than usual to inherit the same gene variant from both parents.

In such cases, recessive genes become expressed in the children's phenotype, causing recessively inherited diseases to manifest. As a result, children born to related parents face a higher risk of congenital structural abnormalities, developmental disabilities, deafness and blindness, as well as infant and child mortality. In addition, inbreeding reduces the cognitive ability of offspring born from such relationships, which has a negative effect on their success in life.

If marriages between relatives occur within the same family or community over several consecutive generations, genetic diversity decreases and the genetic risks increase further. Despite these disadvantages, marriage between cousins is common in many cultures.

More than 10 percent of the world's population enters into such marriages—this has also become increasingly common in Finland and other Western countries in recent years as a result of increased humanitarian immigration. For this reason, it has been suspected that such marriages may be associated with some benefit that has caused this—in itself highly harmful—cultural practice to become established in some cultures.

* * *

One such benefit was identified in a study published by French researcher Olympia L. K. Campbell. It concerned the effect of kinship relationships on conflicts within the household, i.e. domestic violence.

The study was based on two competing hypotheses. According to the first, blood kinship would align spouses' interests and increase monitoring by relatives, thereby reducing men's incentives and opportunities to use coercion. According to the second hypothesis, close kinship networks would place family unity above women's autonomy, suppressing help-seeking and making it easier to control women.

Campbell compared these hypotheses using data collected from approximately 36,000–46,000 women in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, and Turkey. In this dataset, marriage to a first cousin was associated with a 2.5-percentage-point lower probability of physical intimate-partner violence compared with marriages in which the spouses were not blood relatives.

For a woman, this corresponds to an approximately 11 percent lower relative risk of violence. In addition, the researcher found a similar reduction in coercive controlling behavior toward wives.

Interestingly, marriage to a paternal cousin reduced the risk of physical violence more than marriage to a maternal cousin. Thus, it appears that the protective effect stems from the authority of the man's relatives over men, rather than from the spouse's kinship itself. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
Society, Genetics, and the Impact of Consanguineous Marriages: At the Intersection of Education and Heredity
Cousin is not just a delicacy, but also a hindrance to social success

The Overlooked Factor Behind Finland’s Falling PISA Scores

The PISA results published yesterday, which measure schoolchildren’s academic performance, showed that the performance level of Finnish, and many other European, schoolchildren had declined since the previous assessment. The reasons for this have been discussed in the pages of one Finnish media outlet after another, and at least the obvious impact of social media on children’s ability to concentrate has not been downplayed.

However, one factor that has quite evidently contributed to the decline in our schoolchildren’s performance has received remarkably little attention. Namely, the indirect effect of poorly performing immigrant children and young people on other pupils.

Of course, it is impossible to say anything with certainty about this without proper research, but even common sense suggests that the disruption these pupils are known to cause, and the special attention they require from teachers—which comes at the expense of the time available for teaching other schoolchildren—would seem to be plausible candidates for explaining, for example, the [surprising decline] in the learning outcomes of children from socioeconomically advantaged families.

* * *

I was particularly surprised when Professor Mari-Pauliina Vainikainen, who commented on the issue on  television —and was wearing a rather striking floral decoration on her head—explicitly denied that immigration has an impact on learning outcomes (at around the 15-minute mark in this recording). She justified this by saying that the gap in academic performance between immigrant young people and native Finnish young people had narrowed since the previous assessment.

Her reasoning is, of course, factually correct in itself, but her conclusion seemed odd given that the impact of immigration is known to have significantly worsened the conditions for maintaining order and concentration in school classrooms. Even more peculiar was the realization that I could not easily find a Finnish source to link to documenting this phenomenon, which is familiar to the parents of children in all kinds of ethnically diverse classrooms.

In any case, it is clear that if pupils from the majority population have to study in a more disruptive environment than in previous years, this will affect their learning. The same applies if, because of the additional attention required by immigrant children, they receive less time and instruction from their teachers than they did in the past.

It would therefore be good if researchers and funding could also be found for studying these factors. Above all, we should develop a pedagogical solution that would eliminate these problems from Finnish school classrooms.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Families Flee Immigrant-Dominated Areas Over School Safety Concerns
Finnish Immigration Policy Limits Freedom of Expression
Attitudes Toward Immigrants Are a Problem in Schools

Israeli Ministers’ Statements Are a Victory for Hamas

Last night’s news reported that Israeli ministers had hardened their rhetoric concerning Palestinians. Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who represents the Likud, the main governing party, said that Israel would empty Gaza of its inhabitants as soon as the United States identifies a place to which they can be deported.

Such statements are not in accordance with any international law; quite the contrary. Even so, they are less extreme than the fantasies voiced by Katz’s ministerial colleague and leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, Itamar Ben-Gvir, about assassinating 30–40 Gazans every night.

* * *

In both cases, the ultimate consequence of the ministers’ publicly voiced thoughts for international politics is unambiguous: they weaken Israel’s position. And by doing so, they strengthen sympathy for Palestinians elsewhere in the world, thereby empowering activism that supports them.

It is of course clear that Katz’s statements are in reality much more serious than Ben-Gvir’s fantasies about assassinations. This is so simply because he represents the ruling Likud rather than some small extremist party.

Furthermore, Katz’s statements are made more credible by the fact that no solution guaranteeing Israel’s security has been found to the problem of Gaza even over the course of decades—as the terrorist attack of October 7, 2023 clearly demonstrated. This undoubtedly frustrates even those decision-makers in the Jewish state who would like to find a peaceful and lasting solution to the problem of the two peoples of the so-called Holy Land.

On the other hand, it is quite clear that the publicly voiced thoughts of the ministers mentioned above are like winning the lottery for Hamas, whose position had already weakened after the terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, and its consequences. After all, no significant Western politician can defend or support genocidal statements—or even calls for the forced displacement of a population—coming from ministers of a democratic government. Not now, and not in the future.

* * *

It therefore remains to be seen how the situation between Israel and the Palestinians will develop in the future. The positions we have now heard did not arise out of nowhere, but reflect the deep frustration among Israeli Jews with the unresolved Palestinian issue, which has continued for decade after decade, and with its terrorist consequences.

Unfortunately, solutions are in short supply in a situation where neither side trusts the other. Nor did the Palestinian leadership accept independence at the time, even though it was offered.

Moreover, at least Hamas still has no genuine desire today to give up its dream of extending its rule—as they themselves put it—“from the river to the sea,” meaning over the entire territory of present-day Israel. And at the same time, to remove all Jews from the area.

That is why it seems to me that the confrontation and violence between the populations of the Holy Land will continue for decades, if not for centuries. And I would not be surprised at all if the solution—whenever it inevitably comes—were to follow the ideas expressed by the Israeli ministers discussed here. Or, alternatively, the dreams of Palestinian terrorists of driving the Jews into the Mediterranean Sea.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Foreign Minister Explained Why the States That Have Recognized Palestine Are Well-Meaning Fools
Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal
Palestine’s Statehood and International Law

Hamtramck: A Test Case for Mass Immigration

Surrounded by Detroit, Hamtramck is America’s first Muslim-majority city, although as recently as 1970, Poles made up nearly 90% of its population. In other words, Hamtramck is an example of a European-descended population changing from Christians to Muslims.

This ethnic and religious transformation has not taken place without visible consequences. One example is the decision by the city council, consisting entirely of Muslim men, to rename Holbrook Avenue—one of Hamtramck’s main thoroughfares—as Palestine Avenue.

At the same time, the city’s streetscape has changed. Women no longer walk the streets in miniskirts or with their hair uncovered, but are instead covered from head to toe in black niqabs. Shop signs, too, are written in the scripts used in the new population’s countries of origin, and schools have replaced the Easter holiday with time off to mark the end of Ramadan. And, of course, the soundscape has acquired the Islamic call to prayer, heard several times a day.

The consumption of alcohol has also been banned, while the religious slaughter of animals at home is permitted. And something that members of Europe’s sexual minorities in particular might want to take note of: the all-Muslim male city council has banned the public display of the Pride flag.

* * *

It remains to be seen, then, whether Hamtramck is an example of the future of Western countries—including Europe, which readily welcomes immigrants—or merely a uniquely American curiosity. But whichever it turns out to be, people should be aware of the changes that have taken place there—especially when they support liberal immigration policies.

In Finland, the possibility of taking a position on a future like Hamtramck’s will next arise in the parliamentary elections next spring. After all, we will then have both candidates and political parties whose immigration policies will sooner or later lead to a way of life resembling that of present-day Hamtramck, as well as political movements opposed to such a future. The same applies to other European democracies as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Lessons from the Abdul Ballout Case
The Forgotten Empire That Shaped Modern Europe
Reflections on the Terrorist Attack in Australia

Lukashenko Plays It Safe as Putin Fails in Ukraine

Belarus is one of the last dictatorships in Europe. The country is ruled by President Aleksandr Lukashenko, whose hold on power is supported by Putin’s Russia.

On the other hand, Lukashenko is trying to avoid getting entangled in Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine, especially now that it is clear that no quick victory is forthcoming. And apparently for that reason – undoubtedly after carefully considering the matter – he congratulated Ukraine on the country’s 35th Independence Day.

* * *

This act appears, at least according to a Finnish political media, Verkkouutiset, to have been too much for many Russian so-called war bloggers. According to them, Russia’s main problem is not its enemies but its allies – who are unwilling to go along with all of Putin’s stupidities.

Lukashenko has acted in much the same way. In 2022, he understood that it was unwise to throw himself wholeheartedly into Putin’s three-day “special operation.” Whether the reason was a lack of capability, an understanding that Russia’s invasion would not go well, or something else, the failed attempt to seize Kyiv in the very first days of the war showed that this was fortunately the right decision for Belarus.

* * *

The war itself has produced no decisive outcomes since then, either. Of course, both sides have achieved small victories and suffered considerable losses. One such development is just unfolding north of the city of Lyman, where thousands of Russian troops are being encircled.

It is, of course, quite a catastrophe for the Russian army, but on its own it will no more decide the war in Ukraine’s favor than the much more devastating Battle of Raate Road decided the Winter War in Finland’s favor. For dictators like Lukashenko, however, it is a clear sign that they should not sink too deeply into Putin’s pocket, but instead try, as far as possible, to maintain some distance from their most important supporter.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?
Do Belarusians Have the Will and Ability to Preserve Their Independence?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies

2,731 Years to Conquer Ukraine

At least for me, it has been difficult to understand exactly what has happened in the war between Ukraine and Russia during the current year. Of course, it is clear that the Ukrainians have destroyed Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, while the Russians have continued to destroy Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv and other major cities.

What I have seen less information about, however, is how the situation on the front has developed. Yesterday morning, though, I noticed on social media that Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said: “At the moment, the enemy has captured 990 square kilometres since the beginning of the year, while we have regained control of 820 square kilometres. By the end of 2026, however, we will achieve a balance between these areas.”

* * *

It therefore appears that the success of the two fighting armies varies across different parts of the front. In terms of the overall picture, however, the changes are small, if not downright minimal, since Ukraine has a total area of 603,628 km². In other words, the Russians have managed to capture 0.213 percent of the territory of their victim in just under eight months, while the Ukrainians have recaptured 0.177 percent elsewhere.

Thus, the net extent of Russian advances during this period amounts to 0.037 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Or, to put it another way: at this rate, it would take the Russians 2,731 years to take control of the whole of Ukraine—that is, until the year 3757. Admittedly, they would accomplish it “already” in 2495 if Putin’s army managed to prevent Zelenskyy’s forces from recapturing any territory.

* * *

In my view, all of this underscores the absurdity of the war that has been going on in Europe for years. The casualty figures of the armies involved provide equally stark evidence: according to Wikipedia, almost 1.5 million Russians have been killed or wounded, while the corresponding figure for Ukrainians is also close to half a million.

That means that more than one percent of both Russia’s and Ukraine’s populations have been killed or wounded as a result of Putin’s “special military operation.” The former while taking part in a raid on a foreign country, and the latter while defending their homes and families.

This raises the question: how on earth could Vladimir Putin be made to understand the horror of all this, when hardly anyone would dare—even in Russia, at least—to present him with the figures I have set out here? Would it even be enough if Zelenskyy’s prediction, mentioned at the beginning of this piece, that the situation would be balanced out by the end of the year were to come true?

* * *

The situation is not entirely hopeless, however. Perhaps the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure will eventually lead—through the worsening everyday misery they cause—to a revolution in Russia. And surely it is not impossible that the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will eventually have had enough of seeing their sons and other family members sent to their deaths.

Unfortunately, I always remember in this context the view expressed by an older Estonian colleague of mine: Russians will never rise up in rebellion. This is because they are far too accustomed to their poor living conditions, and because they have potato plots to ensure that they have at least the food they need to survive. Thus, according to my colleague, even Putin can count on the support of his people during his senseless military adventure, however long it may last—decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

AI and E. coli, side by side — what a ride!

The Finnish media Helsingin Sanomat (HS) reported this morning that artificial intelligence, or language models, reflect the values of their developers. The article was based on the same questions that HS has asked candidates from different political parties in connection with elections. This made it possible to compare the language models with the parties and their values.

Most language models lean toward value liberalism and the left – among Finnish political parties, the closest equivalents are mainly the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Greens, and the Swedish People’s Party (RKP). The Finns Party (Perussuomalaiset), by contrast, is the furthest away.

When reading this news story, it is worth remembering that people probably do not ask language models very much about values, but rather about various facts. As far as those are concerned, current language models are, at least in my own experience, quite reliable.

* * *

Yesterday, I also happened to read a scientific paper about a completely new kind of AI-based approach in which Paul Ahavi and his colleagues used E. coli bacteria as a living information processor by analyzing their natural growth responses in plasma samples from COVID-19 patients. This was done without genetic modification or specialized equipment.

In practice, the researchers classified early-stage plasma samples from COVID-19 patients according to how severe the disease subsequently became. The classification was based solely on bacterial growth data and was analyzed using machine learning, or artificial intelligence.

The study showed that AI could analyze the effects of metabolites in patients’ plasma on the growth of E. coli and link those effects to the subsequent progression of the disease. In other words, by analyzing bacterial growth, it was able to distinguish a disease that would develop into a mild case from one that would become severe – essentially determining who would recover from the infection on their own and who would require treatment.

Based on their results the researchers concluded that “these findings position biological reservoir computing as a robust, scalable, and low-cost platform for intelligent biosensing, diagnostics, and hybrid bio-digital computation, while providing new mechanistic insights into the computational capabilities of living systems.”

The ability of the combination of E. coli and AI to predict the progression of COVID-19 was roughly as accurate as what can be achieved with precise – and extremely expensive – biochemical measurements. This means that the combination would seemingly offer a vastly cheaper way of analyzing large numbers of patients in connection with a wide variety of epidemics – and potentially even in developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Rain Scald: The Future of a New Sexually Transmitted Disease
Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

How Immigration Has Reshaped European Politics

As my esteemed reader knows, Europe has been undergoing rapid change since at least 2015. It is therefore interesting to see how this change is reflected in opinion polls.

For this reason, I decided to share a few images this Sunday showing the development of party support in different countries. The source of the images is Politico.eu’s Poll of Polls.

* * *

Let us begin with Germany.

The chart clearly shows how, as recently as 20 years ago, Germany’s political landscape was dominated by two major parties, CDU/CSU and SPD. In 2013, a new, small, immigration-critical party, AfD, appeared on the scene. Over the course of the past roughly 13 years, its support has risen in waves to its current level of around 28 percent, making it the largest party in Europe’s largest economic area.

Another significant change is the division of the SPD’s traditional support base between the party and the Greens. At the moment, the Greens are even more popular than the old dominant party of the left.

* * *

Next, France.

The chart beginning in 2017 shows the rise of the immigration-critical National Rally from a medium-sized party to France’s most popular political movement. Two other significant developments have been the consolidation of the previously fragmented left, which has made it the country’s second-largest political movement, and the gradual decline in support for Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party.

* * *

Third, the old world power, the United Kingdom.

The chart shows that the country’s two traditional major parties held their ground for a long time, but that the political landscape has since evolved into a three-party contest involving three medium-sized parties. At the moment, the Labour Party is in the lead, but the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage and having risen on the back of concerns about immigration, as well as the Conservatives, are breathing right down its neck. In recent months, however, support for the old major parties has been rising, while Reform UK’s upward trajectory appears to have peaked sometime last year.

* * *

Overall, these party polls tell us a great deal about the enormous impact of immigration on the political landscape of Western Europe’s largest countries. The same has happened in Finland and Sweden — and Italy is governed by the immigration-critical Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. When we add to this the fact that modern mass immigration is not wanted in the countries of Eastern Europe either, it becomes clear that this is a pan-European view among the peoples of Europe.

This view, however, is reflected rather poorly in European politics. The European Union has failed to close its borders, and there is still an open route for harmful immigration in the form of the so-called right to apply for asylum. In addition, there are spontaneous waves of illegal immigration, most recently in Spain’s Ceuta.

It remains to be seen whether the changing views of EU citizens will affect European immigration policy. And if they do, how.

Will the right to asylum, which emerged in the aftermath of Nazi Germany’s atrocities, be abandoned because of excessive abuse? Will European states begin effectively returning the people who have flowed across their borders over the past ten years and who are unwilling to integrate into their societies? And even their descendants born within the EU?

* * *

From the perspective of us ordinary citizens, the important thing is to lay the foundations for a better future for Europe by voting in elections for parties and candidates through whom the population and culture of our continent can preserve their vitality. The development I have described above shows that many Europeans have understood this, but also that not everyone has.

The future is, of course, unpredictable, so let this entry remain as one snapshot of the current situation. And at the same time, let it serve as a reminder to all of you — my esteemed readers — that ultimately, every democratic society becomes what the people living in it want it to become. At least when the people living in these countries understand what is in their own best interests and exercise their right to vote.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Families Flee Immigrant-Dominated Areas Over School Safety Concerns
Lessons for EU Citizens from the Ceuta Episode
Lessons from the Abdul Ballout Case

Finnish Families Flee Immigrant-Dominated Areas Over School Safety Concerns

The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti published an article about a Helsinki family’s experiences with immigration. According to the article, the parents decided to move away from Helsinki because their son refused to start lower secondary school at a comprehensive school in eastern Helsinki. The reason for this was the sense of insecurity caused by immigrant children, predominantly Muslims and children of African background.

The school in question has a large immigrant population and has also been in the news recently for other reasons, as Helsinki decision-makers have changed school admission catchment areas in order to bring not only immigrant children but also native Finnish children into the school. This has sparked opposition among families affected by the decision.

* * *

In the newspaper article, the mother gave her own account of the students at the school who bullied her son. According to her, some children of foreign background would gang up on others, pick fights, and behave violently. She also described an incident in which a group of bullies had been waiting outside the family’s home with sticks so that they could beat up the boy.

The group of bullies had also mocked the boy’s name while his mother was investigating an altercation that had taken place in the residential courtyard. In other words, they showed no respect even towards adults – or at least not towards ethnic Finns.

* * *

Finland’s Minister of Social Affairs and Health, Wille Rydman (Finns Party), commented on the matter on social media. He asked what “open-borders immigration policy,” “tolerance,” and “anti-racism” mean in practice.

He answered that they mean children becoming victims of systematic violence and learning nothing at school, while ethnic Finns are forced to become refugees in their own country. He further stated that “in many cases, immigration also means that your daughter, or in some cases your grandmother, or even you yourself, will be raped.”

* * *

It is clear that this statement by the minister will either be silenced completely or, alternatively, prominently highlighted alongside accusations of racism. For ethnic Finnish families living in eastern Helsinki, however, this is not a matter of political debate but of their children’s future. And that is why those who have the means and understanding to do so are leaving eastern Helsinki altogether.

It therefore remains to be seen how the school involved in the above-mentioned case and its surrounding areas will change in the coming years. It also remains to be seen whether Wille Rydman is right or wrong when he claims that “mass immigration builds nothing. It is a sweeping destructive force that civilizations always succumb to – history demonstrates this unequivocally. For our enemies, migration is a key instrument for weakening us. For the defenders of our civilization, opposing mass immigration and promoting return migration is therefore a fundamental moral duty. European society and civilization will either survive or fall with it.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Two Recent Life-Threatening Crimes in Finland
Attitudes Toward Immigrants Are a Problem in Schools
Swedish School Shooting with Automatic Weapon Highlights Nation in Crisis