The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army

Happy Finnish Mother’s Day to all mothers!

People say that mothers fight for their children like lionesses. In the same way, the Ukrainians have acted by stretching Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special military operation” into a war that has now lasted for more than four years.

As a result, the Russian army had to settle for a rather modest Victory Day parade yesterday. Unlike in previous years, there were no missiles on display — nor even the T-34 tank designed in the 1930s, which was still present in 2023. Perhaps the last of those is already on its way to Ukraine as well?

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In one respect, however, Vladimir Putin may well be right. In his speech, he stated that the war “is moving toward its conclusion, but it nevertheless remains a serious matter.”

Unfortunately for Putin, the war has reached its culmination point, and his army’s offensive has stalled much like Hitler’s forces at Stalingrad in 1942. Nor does the future appear any brighter for him, because Ukrainian technical ingenuity is set to reverse the course of the war: new drones and missiles are already pounding Russia’s arms and oil industries, while armed robots have begun supporting — and when necessary even replacing — Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.

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Many Russians who have supported Putin up to this point have noticed this as well. But for now, fear of failure has reportedly prevented a coup.

This too is familiar from Hitler’s Germany, where the Austrian corporal remained in power so long that he ultimately chose to end his own life. By then, the Red Army had already reached Berlin, meaning Germany’s defeat in the war had been obvious for quite some time.

Putin’s advantage, of course, is that he ultimately has nuclear missiles at his disposal, and fear of them undoubtedly prevents the Ukrainians from attempting to conquer Russian territory. Thus, he cannot end up in a situation similar to Adolf Hitler’s in 1945 — even though such an outcome would undoubtedly be viewed by many as roughly equally positive for humanity as a whole.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me

The war between Ukraine and Russia came unusually close to me last night, as I observed strange light phenomena in the southeastern sky—things I had never seen before in my life.

In the morning, I checked the news feed and noticed that Ukraine had carried out a strike on Russia’s Luga Bay, not far from Finland, where its drones—according to Russian officials—ignited Novatek’s terminal specializing in natural gas production. It seems clear that the light phenomena I saw in Finland were connected to that very event.

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During the night, the Ukrainian armed forces had also struck an oil refinery in Syzran, in the Samara region—further continuation of the attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Best of all, these strikes appear to be having consequences for Russia and the Russian people.

Namely, wholesale gasoline prices have risen on the St. Petersburg exchange by nearly ten percent just this month—and over the course of this year, the price has increased by as much as fifty percent. This price surge is also being felt in the wallets of Russian consumers and worsens the already high inflation, meaning the general rise in the cost of living.

And that’s not all: production disruptions at oil refineries have also affected the availability of gasoline in Russia. This too has an impact on ordinary Russians’ daily lives—which, I hope, will lead them to realize the harmfulness of Vladimir Putin’s war policy for themselves and for the Russian people as a whole. And to rise up against his government and its imperialist policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
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AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is now using a new type of American-German drone, which can operate independently using its own artificial intelligence. If this information is accurate, it marks another significant step forward in the evolution of warfare.

As a consequence, Ukraine’s technological superiority over Russian forces is increasing, shifting the balance—at least to some degree—in favor of the defenders, who have so far been the underdogs. Whether this will be enough to reverse the course of events on the front lines remains to be seen.

Naturally, this news is extremely bad for Russia, and especially for its dictator Vladimir "Little Man" Putin, whose political future is closely tied to success on the battlefield. It certainly doesn't help that Putin’s war chest—namely the National Wealth Fund used to cover the budget deficit—is inevitably running dry, having shrunk from €110 billion at the start of the war to around €30 billion.

For us bystanders, the situation is undeniably fascinating, as the long-standing trench warfare reminiscent of World War I might shift into a more dynamic and mobile conflict as early as next summer. This could ultimately lead to the collapse of the Russian army—and with it, the fall of Putin from his throne.

Previous thought on the same topic:
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Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

Now that Finland has withdrawn from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines, it is time to take practical action. This means starting Finnish production of anti-personnel mines for both domestic use and for Ukraine.

The reason for this is, of course, the military threat posed by Russia—something that can no longer be ignored since Putin’s “special operation” initiated the attempt to conquer Ukraine. This is true even though the Russians have been unable to bring the operation to completion; instead, it has become more like a Moloch’s maw, fed with the lives of Russian soldiers.

The Finnish arms industry is currently doing quite well in general. A sign of this was, for example, the clear growth in both turnover and operating profit for the defense equipment manufacturer Patria in the January–June period.

Turnover increased by around 12 percent and operating profit by as much as 35 percent. In addition, the company’s order backlog showed a modest increase. In the future, most of the growth is expected to come from the armored vehicle sector, but the company has also recently invested—based on lessons from the war in Ukraine—particularly in drone technology.

It remains to be seen whether the Finnish defense industry is experiencing a renaissance now that the country is a member of the Western defense alliance NATO and has the best preparedness in Europe to take advantage of a networked economy—something that will be a key factor in high-innovation sectors like defense in the coming years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Decides to Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty — But What Business Is It of Guterres?
The Poor Can't Afford to Buy Second-best
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

The Poor Can't Afford to Buy Second-best

The defense industry of my home country produces high-quality equipment. For example, the future standard firearms for Finnish and Swedish soldiers are expected to be based on the entirely new Sako M23 system, covering everything from assault rifles to precision weapons. When it comes to troop transport, one of the best options already available is the 6x6 armored personnel carrier, considered the best in the world and recently sold, for example, to Germany.

Still, it is clear that a country the size of Finland cannot rely solely on domestically produced weapons systems. It also needs weaponry manufactured elsewhere. Therefore, attention must be turned toward systems regarded as the best in the world in each category.

In this regard, it is significant that the Israeli Defense Forces have recently demonstrated their effectiveness in Syria, Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon. Following these displays, there can be no doubt that the armed forces of the Jewish state possess top-tier weapons systems.

This applies to both imported and domestically produced military equipment. That, in turn, means that Finland—located right next to Russia—is extremely interested in such systems. However, the security-policy-irresponsible left, which sympathizes with the Palestinians, has taken a stance against this.

The most controversial case has been the Israeli-made David’s Sling, a high-altitude air defense missile system. Its necessity has been recently demonstrated by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Given that Finland has a vastly larger and extremely dangerous neighbor, only the best available equipment should be considered for procurement—and David’s Sling systems have indeed already been ordered.

Finland is also renewing its navy, and for that purpose, both new and older vessels are being equipped with Gabriel surface-to-surface missiles from Israel. Additionally, counter-battery radars were acquired, as their necessity became apparent early on in the war in Ukraine.

Beyond these, the Finnish Defence Forces use a range of Israeli-made weapons, including Spike anti-tank and coastal missiles, Orbiter 2 mini-drones, and communication and information systems. When you're poor, you can't afford to buy second-best.

Of course, one can only hope that none of the aforementioned weapons—or others, such as the recently ordered F-35 fighters or Leopard tanks—will ever need to be used. If that turns out to be the case, it will demonstrate that a top-tier army equipped with the best weapons available is a sufficient deterrent even against an imperialist like Vladimir Putin. One would hope that this is also understood by the political left, who are still dreaming of their own fantasy world where all nations are happy and friendly.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine
Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Russian tourism authorities have reported that at least 350 flights have been delayed or canceled due to last night's drone attacks by Ukraine. According to them, this has affected around 60,000 passengers, meaning that Putin’s subordinates have now personally experienced what it's like to live under a dictator waging a senseless war.

This is, of course, a good thing, as public support for Putin’s so-called special operation might once again drop a little. However, it’s futile to imagine that the opinions of the Russian people would have any more influence on their president than those of citizens under other global dictators.

That’s why it’s interesting to read that U.S. President Donald Trump has speculated that Putin might be enticed into peace by offering Russia a chance to participate in the next FIFA World Cup. However, such speculation is likely already too late, as the qualification rounds are underway, and Russia can no longer make it to the tournament.

Nevertheless, the idea that major sporting events could be used to pressure Putin into peace is intriguing. The thought is almost delightful—if only it were that easy.

Unfortunately, I have to remain somewhat skeptical here as well. Peace would mean that at least hundreds of thousands of brutalized men would return home from the Ukrainian front, many of whom would undoubtedly struggle to reintegrate into normal civilian life.

As a result, these soldiers could generate tensions within Russian society, which in the worst case could escalate and even lead to questioning Putin’s position. I don’t believe for a second that Putin fails to understand this—nor do I think he would be willing to take such a risk.

The fact is that, for a dictator, it's safer to wage even an eternal war—as long as it doesn’t end in defeat and doesn’t overly affect the daily lives of ordinary Muscovites or St. Petersburg residents. Which, incidentally, Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against Moscow might well begin to do.

And it’s certainly not insignificant that Ukrainian drones might very well spoil the mood of the dictator’s upcoming holiday celebrations. This could happen even if Zelensky’s army voluntarily refrains from sending a single drone to annoy the Russians on Friday, out of respect for the end of World War II.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War

Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation

According to Russian sources, Ukraine has launched another attack on Kursk. This information has not been confirmed by Kyiv, but the geolocation data of some Ukrainians appears to support the claim.

The attack is, of course, a humiliation for dictator Vladimir Putin, who is preparing for the anniversary of the end of World War II. The same goes for the fact that just a few days ago, a Ukrainian unmanned sea drone destroyed two Russian fighter jets.

And Putin is unlikely to be pleased about the fact that, following the signing of a mineral agreement between Zelensky and Trump, the United States has once again begun supporting the Ukrainians in their fight for independence.

One would think even Putin would realize he missed his window of opportunity by delaying the signing of a peace agreement, despite Trump’s many appeals.

It remains to be seen how the Ukrainians will fare in Kursk and on other fronts. And most importantly, whether their forces will, over time, succeed in pushing the Russians off their land.

In this regard, the mineral agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine may play a key role. It’s clear that the Americans are also interested in the mineral resources located in the Russian-occupied areas. That is why they have an interest in supporting Ukraine in retaking them — as well as a motivation to prevent further aggression against Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: 

What the U.S.–Ukraine Mineral Agreement Means
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans

From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins

Russia's attack on Ukraine has led to a complete transformation of Finland's foreign policy. Whereas during the Soviet era, politicians in my home country often aligned themselves with the positions of our great eastern neighbor, and even at the beginning of this millennium avoided directly criticizing the blatant injustices it committed, today they are ready to respond to Russia's actions exactly as they deserve.

We saw another example of this today when the Finnish Parliament — unanimously, note, unanimously, from the left to the right — approved the government's proposal for a complete ban on Russian real estate acquisitions. As a result, Minister Antti Häkkänen (National Coalition Party) expressed his "great joy that Parliament so comprehensively supported this proposal, whose goal is to strengthen national security. This decision sends a clear message: we will not allow Finland to be destabilized."

Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself, Russian forces have once again attacked and even made some advances, but only at great cost. In particular, Ukrainian drones have caused significant destruction among the attackers. According to Ukrainian sources, drones have been responsible for as much as 70 percent of the losses suffered by Russian forces.

According to Finnish expert Pasi Paroinen, satellite images have made it possible to assess that Russia has almost no old Soviet-era stockpiles left. It remains to be seen what Putin and his military leadership will do once the very last museum piece has been retrieved from storage and sent to be destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

The question is: should they finally give up?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

The Downing of the Azerbaijani Plane Is a War Crime That Must Be Condemned

The Russians shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane, killing dozens of passengers. Their military fired at the aircraft in such a way that the missile exploded next to the plane, causing shrapnel damage that forced the plane to make an emergency landing. The plane was also denied permission to land at a Russian airport, despite requesting clearance.

All of this clearly constitutes a violation of international law by Russia, for which it and its leadership must be held accountable. This holds true even if there had previously been activity by military drones in the area.

There are two main reasons for this. The first is that the shooter must always ensure the military nature of the target being fired upon. Additionally—and this is the second reason—Russia is conducting an illegal war against Ukraine, making it ultimately responsible for all the consequences of that war.

Either of these reasons alone constitutes a clear war crime for which the perpetrator must be brought to an international tribunal in The Hague for assessment and sentencing. And this task must not fail if this tribunal is to have any legitimacy in the future. This remains true even if it is unlikely that the perpetrators of this particular war crime will ever serve the sentences imposed on them.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
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The Need for Asylum Among Syrians Disappeared with the Regime Change

The power transition in Syria reportedly occurred partly with the help provided by Ukraine. According to available information, Ukraine had sent in advance 20 drone operators and 150 FPV drones to the rebel organization that took power.

If and when this information proves to be accurate, it highlights the vastly different scale of warfare in Ukraine compared to Syria. In Ukraine, 150 drones have almost no significant impact on the overall course of the war.

From the perspective of Western countries, one of the biggest questions regarding Syria's regime change concerns refugees. After all, they have primarily fled either Assad's regime or the ISIS caliphate, neither of which now plays a significant role in Syria.

For this reason, Finland and many other countries have already suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrians, as it is apparent that those who fled Assad's regime or ISIS and came here no longer require asylum. Logically, this should mean that even those previously granted asylum would be returned to their country of origin.

Denmark has already promised a €20,000 package for Syrians who return to their homeland. This is logical, as Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen does not want even a single asylum seeker in her country.

On the other hand, Turkey’s three million Syrians have not needed to be incentivized to return to their homeland; even too many of them have already rushed to the border. It remains to be seen whether the rest will follow in the near future.

This, in turn, depends on what kind of role Syria’s new administration takes. Will it adopt a constructive role and unite the nation, or will it prove too weak to prevent rebellions by other factions operating in Syria? Naturally, our hope in the West is for the Syrian people to unify and for the state to develop into a functioning human rights state and democracy.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria
Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?
The Futile Civil War in Syria

Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on social media that Russia has successfully launched an offensive against Ukrainians in the Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin has also clarified the goal he has set for the Russian forces: the expulsion of Ukrainians from the Russian soil by the beginning of October.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has commented on the Russian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that everything is going according to Ukraine's plans. This likely suggests that the Russians have not made significant progress, at least in the first few days of their attack.

Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the Russians will succeed in their attempt to eliminate the war from their own soil, or if Ukraine will continue to remind them that they are still at war — and on their own territory, no less. What could be more embarrassing for self-made great men like Putin and Lavrov? 

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Meanwhile, far in the north, there have been claims that drones are interfering with the Murmansk airport, with reports that two drones were even shot down. In relation to this, the Russians have been spreading disinformation, claiming that the drones supposedly came from Finland.

This claim is interesting because - if there truly were drones in Murmansk - it suggests that Moscow finds it too difficult to admit that such drones might have come all the way from Ukraine. Such an event would highlight the significant inability of the Russians to control their own airspace.

In any case, the war in Ukraine will continue, and the outcome remains uncertain. The only clear thing is that if the Russians manage to emerge even somewhat victorious, neighboring countries can be certain that sooner or later they, too, will face some sort of "special operations".

Therefore, it is extremely important to ensure that Ukrainians receive the necessary help from the West to defeat the Russian army. Additionally, in any potential peace negotiations, support must be given to the return of all territories occupied by Putin's forces — including Crimea — to Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Vandalism in Northern Sweden - But Who Is Responsible?

Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

For a while, there was an interesting situation in the war in Ukraine: the Russians were advancing in the eastern parts of the country at the same time as Ukraine's offensive towards Kursk was making deeper inroads into Putin's realm. Although the latter operation has proven to be a success—and still is—the Russian advance towards the eastern Ukrainian transportation hub of Pokrovsk has been considered highly concerning from Ukraine's perspective.

Apparently, the Ukrainians share this concern, as they have transferred a small elite force to the area, which seems to have been able to halt the Russian advance with a counteroffensive—or even push them back. Time will tell whether the Russians will be able to continue their advance or if this was the end of it, at least for now.

Another piece of news from Ukraine concerns the new types of weapons that Zelensky's army has received. The first of these is a long-range missile/drone, soon to be followed by a ballistic missile. It remains to be seen how Ukraine will make use of these weapons.

The second new weapon in Ukraine's arsenal is a "dragon drone", capable of burning a long stretch of terrain by dropping incendiary materials onto the enemy like a flamethrower. One can only imagine what it must feel like for Russian soldiers in the trenches when attacked by such a device.

Of course, it remains to be seen what impact these new weapons systems will have on the course of the war. And at what point the Russians will develop their own dragon drone, turning the fight into an even more hellish experience for the Ukrainians.

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The other question, of course, is how the war will progress. Right now, it seems that a quick resolution is not on the horizon, in either direction. And so, soldiers from both Russia and Ukraine will continue to be fed into the jaws of war—while Putin's army continues its terrorist attacks on civilian targets.

All in all, the war demonstrates to the entire world the absurdity of Russian imperialism, which is the cause of this idiotic conflict. The United States and the United Kingdom also have some soul-searching to do, as they, along with the Russians, convinced the Ukrainians during their independence that their sovereignty would be guaranteed even without nuclear weapons.

They have not done so but have instead allowed the Russians to freely practice their terrorist power politics towards Ukraine. They have shown that international agreements are worth little more than the paper—or nowadays, perhaps the computer memory—they are written on. This, to say the least, is shameful.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies
Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats

Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies

Ukraine's successful offensive against Russia has undoubtedly caused headaches for Putin's administration. And it is not impossible that the Russians might decide to do something extraordinary to rid themselves of this embarrassing situation.

One possibility, of course, would be to divert the Ukrainians' attention elsewhere. This could happen in cooperation with Belarus, for example, by inciting Lukashenko to involve his army in the war.

Such a move would obviously not be in Belarus' best interest, especially given that its military is weak compared to Russia and even Ukraine. However, the fact remains that Belarus has gathered a large contingent of troops near the Ukrainian border.

The most likely reason for this, however, is not an attack on Ukraine but the annual joint military exercises held with Russia. This would also explain the presence of Russian units in the area, such as the Wagner Group.

From the Ukrainians' perspective, it is clear that the troops gathering in the north cannot be ignored, and Zelensky will need to deploy his own military units in response. Therefore, Lukashenko will end up assisting Putin’s army, even if the Belarusians do not carry out a single operation across the Ukrainian border.

One can only hope that this doesn’t halt Ukraine’s well-advanced progress on the Russian side of the border. This is important because the further they advance, the more they will affect Russia in the same way that the Belarusian troops are affecting Ukraine: by forcing Putin to halt his own sluggish but progressing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine and relocate his units away from Ukraine.

There is a fourth card in this game as well—one that has remained hidden so far—namely Poland. Militarily strong, Poland could, if it chose to, significantly alter the military balance in Ukraine. That’s why the recent incursion of a Russian drone into Polish airspace was extremely bad news for the Russians, as it gives the Poles a legitimate reason to intervene in the war in Ukraine.

One clear reason for such an intervention could be the resolution of World War II, in which Poland was shifted about a hundred kilometers westward. The lost territories likely still stir strong emotions among many Poles, which might lower the threshold for seizing the opportunity to right the wrongs experienced by their grandparents. Especially when Russia's army in Ukraine has proven to be more of a paper tiger than a real military force.

It remains to be seen how the war in Ukraine will continue from the current situation, and whether a resolution will eventually be reached that all parties can accept. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare

Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

The Ukrainians successfully struck the Russian airfield located near the Estonian border. As a result, several heavy Russian cargo planes were destroyed.

Russians have previously relocated a large number of their strategic bombers near the Finnish border. There they are situated much farther from Ukraine than the field targeted in this attack. Following the recent strike, it is apparent that Russia will be moving more of its air force equipment even farther from Ukraine.

Consequently, their use of air power in the ongoing war in Ukraine becomes increasingly challenging. This, in turn, improves the conditions for Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

According to Finnish military expert, general Pekka Toveri, the attack will compel Russia to significantly enhance its resources for safeguarding targets such as airports, defense industries, and even Saint Petersburg. This, too, will ease Ukrainian warfare efforts in the future as the relocated troops are diminished from the Russian forces fighting against them.

From the perspective of President Vladimir Putin's army, the attack witnessed now is unfortunate in that its defense is faltering in the southern fronts, where Ukraine has made clear advances in recent days and seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. Thus, what lies ahead is likely a shift from the almost stagnant trench warfare to a more mobile battle once again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?
Victims of Russian leaders
Russian standard of tanks