A Growing Sino-Russian Threat to the West

The war in Ukraine is increasingly dividing the industrialized world into two opposing camps. One consists of the Western nations, and the other of China and Russia. The latest sign of this division is the fact that the Chinese and Russian navies have begun joint exercises in the Sea of Japan.

The exercise, named Joint Sea 2025, began off the coast of the city of Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. The drills include submarine rescue, anti-submarine warfare, air defense, and missile defense exercises. While China and Russia have conducted joint military drills before, there have also been significant disagreements between them in the past.

However, as Russia has become increasingly dependent on Chinese support due to the war in Ukraine, the cooperation has deepened. According to China's Ministry of Defense, the purpose of the newly launched exercises is to "further deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership."

This is something the West should take seriously. Although Russia has proven to be a paper tiger in conventional warfare in Ukraine, it remains the world’s second most powerful nuclear state. Furthermore, it's important to remember that China's actual military capability has not truly been tested since the Korean War—making it a significant unknown.

In solving this unknown, it's crucial to recognize that China has made giant leaps forward both technologically and economically. It would not be a major surprise if China’s military capability turned out to be strong enough to challenge even the United States.

All of this is one reason why the West must continue to develop its own military capabilities and technical proficiency. After all, it would be a major humanitarian catastrophe if the current, even partially free, world were to become subordinate to superpowers based on dictatorial authoritarianism.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Trump Jeopardizes NATO Progress
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
The Free World Needs America’s Leadership Now

AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is now using a new type of American-German drone, which can operate independently using its own artificial intelligence. If this information is accurate, it marks another significant step forward in the evolution of warfare.

As a consequence, Ukraine’s technological superiority over Russian forces is increasing, shifting the balance—at least to some degree—in favor of the defenders, who have so far been the underdogs. Whether this will be enough to reverse the course of events on the front lines remains to be seen.

Naturally, this news is extremely bad for Russia, and especially for its dictator Vladimir "Little Man" Putin, whose political future is closely tied to success on the battlefield. It certainly doesn't help that Putin’s war chest—namely the National Wealth Fund used to cover the budget deficit—is inevitably running dry, having shrunk from €110 billion at the start of the war to around €30 billion.

For us bystanders, the situation is undeniably fascinating, as the long-standing trench warfare reminiscent of World War I might shift into a more dynamic and mobile conflict as early as next summer. This could ultimately lead to the collapse of the Russian army—and with it, the fall of Putin from his throne.

Previous thought on the same topic:
Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions
Russian Soldier in Finland – A Sign of Crumbling Morale?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry

NATO's Northern Europe Headquarters to be Established in Mikkeli, Finland's Former Military Command City

According to recent information, NATO's Northern Europe Command will be established in Mikkeli, Finland. The decision is based on an overall assessment of what is the best location for Finland's defense. No other reasons are involved.

At the same time, Finland sent, according to Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen (National Coalition Party), "a message to Russia that we are a full-fledged member of NATO, and NATO plays a very strong role in Finland's defense." He further stated that "this is not in any way a hostile action or a confrontation, but purely based on Finland's defense arrangements."

* * *

Mikkeli is an important city for Finland with about 50,000 inhabitants. This is because it served as the headquarters of the Finnish Defense Forces during the Winter War, the Continuation War, and the Lapland War. 

In the first of these, the Finnish army repelled the Soviet Union's attack, which was politically supported by Germany, on its own without any allies. Although Britain and France made strong promises of support, it ultimately amounted to little more than a few material deliveries.

In the Continuation War, too, the Soviet Union initiated military actions five days before Finland launched its own offensive as part of Germany's Operation Barbarossa, quickly capturing large areas of East Karelia. In 1944, the Red Army launched a major offensive, which after initial success was halted on the Soviet side of the pre-war border. Peace was subsequently made at the current borders.

Before the end of the World War II, Finland still fought a third war, during which it expelled the German troops stationed in northern Finland. In this war, the Germans retaliated against the Finns by burning practically all homes of the inhabitants in Lapland. As a result, the people of northern Finland still hated the Germans in the 1970s, until the income brought by tourism helped the resentment subside.

After these historical memories, I express the hope that Mikkeli will never again have to lead a war between Finland and Russia, and that NATO's mere presence in Finland will be enough to deter any potential imperialist ambitions of Vladimir Putin and his successors.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate
Rediscovered Relics: The Story Behind Finland's WWII Weapon Caches
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience

Hezbollah Uses Human Shields While the Green-Left Looks Away

According to World At War, a source active on social media, the terrorist organization Hezbollah has asked civilians not to leave the area where Israel has announced it will attack - and that attach occurred today. This is nothing new or surprising, as another terrorist organization, Hamas, operating in Gaza, has similarly used civilians as human shields.

Additionally, Hezbollah’s leaders clearly intend to exploit the civilians who may die or be injured in a potential Israeli strike for their propaganda war, claiming it was a terrorist attack. At the same time, following Hamas’s example, they fail to mention that they are actively contributing to the high number of civilian casualties.

In other words, these terrorist organizations are committing war crimes by sacrificing their own citizens. Unfortunately, this strategy works as long as people in Western countries fail to understand the irresponsible sacrifice of their populations by these two terrorist organizations for the sake of propaganda victories.

The problem lies in the fact that the Western political green-left movement - for reasons I personally cannot comprehend - remains locked in a Cold War mindset (example and another), where people with a socialist worldview consistently supported the side backed by the Soviet Union in international conflicts. The Soviet Union may no longer exist, but the memory of its strong support for Muslims in their efforts to destroy Israel remains alive.

This persists despite the fact that the Islamic world represents almost everything the political green-left claims to support: equality between genders or religions, freedom of expression, or the avoidance of corporal punishments—none of which exist in the Islamic world, as is well known by everyone in the Western world.

It remains to be seen how the green-left will once again protest when Israelis defend their existence by attacking the terrorists based in Lebanon, despite the human shields they use. And how they will demand punishment for Israel over the casualties that would not have occurred without Hezbollah's active involvement.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
How Will Israel Benefit on the Explosions of Hezbollah's Communication Devices?
What Does the Failure of Hezbollah's Attack Tell Us?
The first casualty of war is the truth - but whose truth?

Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

The Ukrainians successfully struck the Russian airfield located near the Estonian border. As a result, several heavy Russian cargo planes were destroyed.

Russians have previously relocated a large number of their strategic bombers near the Finnish border. There they are situated much farther from Ukraine than the field targeted in this attack. Following the recent strike, it is apparent that Russia will be moving more of its air force equipment even farther from Ukraine.

Consequently, their use of air power in the ongoing war in Ukraine becomes increasingly challenging. This, in turn, improves the conditions for Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

According to Finnish military expert, general Pekka Toveri, the attack will compel Russia to significantly enhance its resources for safeguarding targets such as airports, defense industries, and even Saint Petersburg. This, too, will ease Ukrainian warfare efforts in the future as the relocated troops are diminished from the Russian forces fighting against them.

From the perspective of President Vladimir Putin's army, the attack witnessed now is unfortunate in that its defense is faltering in the southern fronts, where Ukraine has made clear advances in recent days and seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. Thus, what lies ahead is likely a shift from the almost stagnant trench warfare to a more mobile battle once again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?
Victims of Russian leaders
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Finnish Winter war showed the way to help Ukraine

Exactly 83 years ago Soviet Union attacked Finland without any warning. Or actually, Stalin´s troops shot some of its own soldiers in Raivola, and used their death as a false excuse for the attack. 

Finland had had a brutal civil war just 21 years before, and Stalin - the head of the Soviet Union - thought that communists would join them, and therefore it would take just few weeks for Russians to get in Helsinki. That did not happen, although soviet army did its best for 105 days, killed ca 26 000 Finns and lost itself some 126 000–168 000 soldiers as dead or missing. 

Not to mention the loss of 260–500 aircrafts and 1 200–3 500 tanks by Russians. Such material losses were gigantic compared to losses of the Finnish army: some 20–30 tanks and 62 aircrafts. And still they did not make their way to Helsinki. And the western great powers did not provide any countable help despite several requests.  

Whatsoever, after 105 days Finland made the biggest mistake independent Finland has ever made. Namely, a small group of Finnish leaders decided to agree with Russians on a peace treaty with extremely unfavorable conditions. 

That was because Hermann Göring of Germany - at the time still an ally of Soviets - had secretly promised Finland that it would regain its losses during a becoming war. The agreement included a cover story - only partially true, but still commonly believed in Finland - that the Finnish army would have been collapsing in any minute. That was, however, not the case - not in the front, and definitely not in the light of  western powers finally being ready to help. 

But western reaction was too slow, and as a consequence, Finland joined operation Barbarossa in 1941, although its military lead refused to join the German attack against Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) despite Hitler´s demands. And ultimately Hitler failed there and everywhere. 

However, while Germany´s military power collapsed by the end of the war, the Finnish army managed to stop the Russian mass attack in the Battle of Tali-Ihantala in 1944 - with altogether some 35 000 Russian and Finnish casualties - and succeeded in making a separate peace, which saved Finland´s way of life as a democracy, but doomed its leaders to suck up Russians for half a century until their communist great power collapsed. 

* * *

During the last few years Finnish Winter War has become common knowledge throughout the world due to its many similarities to Russian´s unjustified attack against Ukraine. And there is a lesson to be learned. 

Namely, at this time the western nations must remember, that heroic defenders under unjustified attack must be supported against dictatorships as long as it takes. That will direct history towards a fair future, and strengthen global values against wrongdoing. 

For Ukrainians the western support will build up the first step towards a western way of life. That is, less corruption as well as more human rights, economic freedom and sustainable society. But we must remember to continue the support even after the war - encouraging and demanding Ukrainians to change their eastern attitude towards more western one at the same time they keep the best parts of their own cultural heritage. And rewarding them as soon as they qualify a true member of the Western world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine
Vakartšuk of the Okean Elzy: Finnish history inspires Ukrainians
It takes heroes to avoid genocide

Tractor course for Ukrainians

We are all aware of Ukrainian tractors pulling Russian military equipment. In addition, we have seen many tractor cartoons and drawings ridiculing the Russian army.

We also know that there are millions of Ukrainians - mostly women and children - who have left their home country in order to find a safe place while their army is fighting for their future. About 25 000 of those have come to Finland, my home country. 

Today I was reading a newspaper and put my attention on a story, which reported on Finns teaching Ukrainians to drive tractors. One of the the teachers told that the Ukrainians have shown high willingness to participate in society and work. According to him, they are "top crew". 

It remains to be seen, however, how much the Finnish tractor training adds to the efficacy of Ukrainian tractor forces against Russian tanks. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Demonstration of one´s own stupidity is a sign of western values
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor