Instability Returns to the Balkans

I begin this blog post with a look back 111 years. At that time, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo, Bosnia, which was then part of Austria-Hungary.

The reason behind the assassination was that the Bosnian Serbs wanted to join Serbia and pursued this aim through political murder. As a result, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28, 1914.

Serbia soon gained Russia as an ally, while Austria-Hungary was supported by Germany. In an effort to avoid a two-front war, Germany attacked France through Belgium. This, in turn, led to Britain entering the conflict — and thus the First World War began. Around 16 million people lost their lives in that war.

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In his recent column, retired Major General Harri Ohra-aho warned Finns about the smoldering powder keg of the Balkans. According to him, Bosnia and Herzegovina is teetering on the brink of a deep crisis, with the actions of the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik — the leader of the federation’s Serbian entity — at the core of the issue, as he pushes for Serbian independence.

Under Dodik’s leadership, Republika Srpska has passed laws that prevent federal authorities from operating within its territory. In addition, his administration has demanded a separate constitution for the Serbs — a step toward splitting Bosnia and Herzegovina into two separate states.

Behind this lies the strong support of Serbia itself and, lurking behind Serbia, that of Russia. Unfortunately, Hungary — an EU member state — and its president Viktor Orbán have also joined in, sending special forces to conduct joint exercises with the Serbs. In other words, this is part of Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy to shift Western Europe’s attention from Ukraine to the Balkans.

For now, however, the situation remains calm, and most Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs hope for stability and envision their future in the EU. Even within Republika Srpska, Dodik does not enjoy unanimous support. But as we well know, people’s opinions can be easily influenced by the right kind of propaganda.

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For us Finns, the matter is significant in several ways. First, every military-political victory for Putin increases the risk that Russia might test the military readiness of a NATO border country through a suitably crafted special operation. Perhaps not on Finland’s border specifically, but quite possibly somewhere in our neighborhood.

Second, Bosnia and Herzegovina has served as one of the routes for humanitarian migration, and if it falls into chaos, it could lead to an increase in the number of people arriving in the EU. This, in turn, could further destabilize the internal situation in the EU countries most affected by such flows — such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, or Sweden.

For these reasons, Ohra-aho ended his column with the following hope: "Europe must therefore act wisely but decisively. Words must be followed by actions: more support for constructive forces in Bosnia, a clear message against separatism, and concrete steps toward NATO and EU integration. Stability does not arise by itself, and in the Balkans its value is often only recognized once it has already been lost."

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Message from Finland's President to Vladimir Putin

The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a UK-led international rapid response force focused on crisis management, involving ten nations. The assembly of the forces began in 2012, and currently, besides the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands contribute troops to the initiative.

Currently, a summit of JEF member state leaders is underway in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. Topics on the agenda include supporting Ukraine, increasing defense spending, and enhancing defense cooperation.

According to Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, “Before we can start discussions on peace negotiations and a ceasefire, we must continue to support Ukraine. And the support must be very practical. This means providing weapons and ammunition so that Ukraine can win the war on the battlefield.”

He also added, “As Finns, we know what we are talking about. After the Winter War and Continuation War, we paid the price for our independence, losing territory and sovereignty. We must ensure that this does not happen in Ukraine.”

Reporters also asked Finland's president for a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His response was brief and to the point: “Withdraw!”

President Putin, however, is unlikely to heed his Finnish counterpart’s advice. This makes it all the more significant that Ukraine’s security service recently reduced the ranks of Putin’s army by one general—right in Moscow. This demonstrates that even Russia’s military leaders must fear for their safety while moving around the nation’s capital, and it may well leave them privately hoping that Putin unexpectedly orders the lowering of arms.

At the same time, ordinary Moscow residents who support the war are forced to confront the reality that Ukraine can now strike even their home city. For the smartest among them, it might occur that Finland’s president’s advice was unusually spot on.

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From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization

Russia has advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk region and may achieve a breakthrough there. However, former Finnish Defense Forces Commander and current Member of Parliament Jarmo Lindberg (National Coalition Party) reminded us that the front line is long and not immediately collapsing.

According to Lindberg, the Kursk region might become a burden for Ukraine as it ties down troops away from other areas of the front. Additionally, "North Korean fighters have reportedly joined the battles in the Kursk region."

Therefore, it remains to be seen what will happen in the war in Ukraine during the coming winter. However, it is important to note that it does not solely depend on the warring parties but also on what Western countries do to help the Ukrainians—or whether they do anything at all.

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The Finnish Officers’ Union conducted a survey among professional soldiers on the war in Ukraine. According to the results, 67% of respondents considered Finland's support sufficient, while 28% would even support increasing military aid. One respondent suggested giving Ukraine Finland's soon-to-be-retired F-18 Hornet jets—but this would require extensive maintenance costing tens of millions of euros, as the jets will be fully decommissioned in the coming years.

One of the survey respondents summarized most Finns' perception of the war, saying, "Europe is being defended in Ukraine. Finland is the only European country prepared for large-scale warfare. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the longer it delays Russia’s resurgence… Ukraine’s success against Russia is an existential issue for Finland’s security."

Many professional soldiers also emphasized that donations should not compromise Finland's own defense capabilities. One noted, "Finland has provided outsized assistance to Ukraine, considering we are a frontline country relative to Russia."

Furthermore, 91% of Finnish soldiers agreed, at least to some extent, that Ukraine should be allowed to use long-range Western weapons to target sites deep within Russia. They do not understand why Ukraine must fight by different rules due to political caution.

One respondent questioned, "Russia constantly commits war crimes by destroying civilian targets. Ukraine is not even allowed to strike military targets." Another remarked, "Russia uses foreign weapons against Ukraine in the same way. Russia cannot be countered with one hand tied behind Ukraine's back."

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These views should ideally be shared in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has opposed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Scholz also displayed an embarrassing lack of understanding of Finland’s post-World War II position.

Scholz has stated that "Ukraine should adopt a ‘neutral’ position, as Finland did for decades." My homeland Finland was indeed forced into official neutrality after World War II, but it retained a Western societal structure and prepared as best it could for a possible war against the Soviet Union.

The so-called friendship between Finland and the Soviet Union was a grand theater, which did not shy away from suppressing freedom of speech or smearing rivals in internal politics. This was obvious to me, even as a teenager.

Also, the falsehood of Finland’s neutrality was clear to me decades ago while doing military service in my 20s, during which it was evident that the skills we were learning were meant to counter a potential attack by the Eastern superpower. Never—not even once—did it occur to us that Western countries could pose a threat to Finland.

Unfortunately, starting in the mid-1950s, Finnish politicians rose to power who played the so-called "Moscow card" to exploit Finland’s vulnerable position for personal and party advantage in domestic politics. The most well-known was President Kekkonen, who remained in power for 25 years with Soviet support, only stepping down after becoming completely senile.

So I expect that Germans, too, will help Ukraine in its fight for independence. If they don’t, I consider them cowards. Furthermore, Chancellor Scholz himself should ensure that he understands what he’s talking about before making foolish statements.

Finally, it would be great if this text somehow ended up being read by as many Germans as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate

The Commander of the Finnish Defence Forces, General Janne Jaakkola, reminded us Finns that we must never find ourselves in the same situation as Ukraine is in right now. In other words, we should avoid having to repel a full-scale Russian attack as an underdog, where losses in personnel and equipment do not matter.

He also emphasized that the structures of Finnish society must be such that Russia cannot influence the country’s population or infrastructure, even in a wartime scenario. This view has certainly been noted by the current government, as well as by the opposition, and it will not go without impact.

Finland’s defense naturally relies on the strong will of its citizens to defend the country, on high-performance equipment, as well as on the bilateral defense agreement (DCA) signed with the United States and the security guarantees provided by NATO membership. In relation to the latter – according to the Commander of the Defence Forces – discussions are currently underway regarding the nationalities and composition of the forces to be stationed in Finland.

The general also stated that Russia does not pose an immediate military threat to Finland at the moment. However, he expressed concern that we do not have a clear understanding of Russia’s future intentions in Finland or elsewhere.

This is also understood by ordinary Finns, as NATO is, according to a recent survey, the fourth most trusted institution in Finland, following the Defence Forces, the police, and the education system. This reflects the fact that living next to an irresponsible great power helps Finns prioritize things – and security can only come first in this regard.

In relation to what I’ve written above, I’ve sometimes had to answer questions about why the Finnish will to defend is exceptionally high. I believe it largely stems from some form of national memory, where key factors include the seemingly endless suffering during Sweden’s great power era when Finns were sent to die across Europe at the whims of the king.

In this regard, I see the final stages of that era in the early 18th century as particularly significant, when – while Finnish soldiers were fighting elsewhere – the Russians occupied Finland twice (Great Wrath and Russo-Swedish war (1741-1743), looting, raping, killing, and taking women and children as slaves in large numbers. This is something that we absolutely do not want to see repeated ever again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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A Message From and To Vladimir Putin

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin stated that his favorite candidate for U.S. president is Kamala Harris. He explained that she might possibly refrain from imposing sanctions against Russia.

The question, of course, is why Putin commented on the U.S. elections. Did he genuinely want to express his support for the Democratic candidate, or was he rather trying to sabotage her campaign, knowing that not many Americans trust him at all?

My guess is that it's the latter. After all, he got along quite well with Donald Trump during Trump's previous presidency and probably assumes that it would be the same during a second term. This may or may not be the case, but in any case, Harris has already declared her support for Ukraine in its struggle for survival against Russia.

Therefore, for Americans, it's safest not to listen to Vladimir Putin and to make their voting decisions based on their own considerations. This ensures – if nothing else – that Putin cannot interfere in the elections of the largest democracy in the Western world.

Here in Finland, it has been noted with satisfaction that U.S. F-35 fighter jets have landed in Finland. These are the same aircraft that the Finnish Air Force has ordered for its next fleet, and the visit of the American planes sends a message to Putin and other Russian war hawks that it’s in their best interest to keep their own fighter jets out of Finnish airspace.

The visit of the top U.S. fighter jets to Finland was beneficial for the Americans as well. This can be inferred from the statement made by a U.S. Air Force general, who said, "The opportunity to learn from our Finnish counterparts enhances our ability to rapidly deploy and operate airpower from unconventional locations and reflects the collective readiness and agility of our forces."

This is exactly how cooperation should be: mutually beneficial for both parties!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

The Ukrainians successfully struck the Russian airfield located near the Estonian border. As a result, several heavy Russian cargo planes were destroyed.

Russians have previously relocated a large number of their strategic bombers near the Finnish border. There they are situated much farther from Ukraine than the field targeted in this attack. Following the recent strike, it is apparent that Russia will be moving more of its air force equipment even farther from Ukraine.

Consequently, their use of air power in the ongoing war in Ukraine becomes increasingly challenging. This, in turn, improves the conditions for Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

According to Finnish military expert, general Pekka Toveri, the attack will compel Russia to significantly enhance its resources for safeguarding targets such as airports, defense industries, and even Saint Petersburg. This, too, will ease Ukrainian warfare efforts in the future as the relocated troops are diminished from the Russian forces fighting against them.

From the perspective of President Vladimir Putin's army, the attack witnessed now is unfortunate in that its defense is faltering in the southern fronts, where Ukraine has made clear advances in recent days and seems to be on the verge of a breakthrough. Thus, what lies ahead is likely a shift from the almost stagnant trench warfare to a more mobile battle once again.

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Russian standard of tanks

Russia claimed yesterday that they have used T-14 Armata tanks in Ukraine. This claim was commented on by the former commander of the Finnish army, General Jarmo Lindberg.

According to him: "It is Russia's new generation battle tank, which was introduced a few years ago (in 2015) in perhaps a slightly embarrassing manner during the Victory Day parade on Red Square. It broke down there and had to be towed away. Apparently, some of them have now made it to the front lines under their own power."

When asked if it's truly a super tank as Russians have claimed, he responded: "Well, super and super. Maybe by Russian standards, it is."

Clearly, the general did not consider the Russian tank anything special and certainly not on par with modern Western tanks.

Previously thoughts on the same topic:
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Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is quickly losing her national credibility

Formerly admired by the world, the Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is quickly losing her national credibility in politics. One significant step in this was her unfounded promise to donate Finnish fighter jets, which will be decommissioned in 2026, to Ukrainians.

It was surprising that the Prime Minister returned to the issue earlier this week and got retired Major General Pekka Toveri to comment on the matter. According to him, "sometimes it would be better to admit a mistake and learn from it rather than getting oneself deeper into the mud". He also confirmed the earlier mention by the Commander of the Finnish Defense Forces that the current fighter jets will be used until the end of their life before they are replaced.

Another strange thing that has been seen in the ongoing April parliamentary election debates is that the Prime Minister has started shouting at her competitors (an example) in a way that is not usually seen in the rather restrained Finnish politics.

Such behavior does not inspire any trust in ordinary people in Finland, let alone in the case of a prime minister seeking to continue in the country's leadership. Therefore, it is quite easy to predict that Sanna Marin does not have a very good future in our country's politics - and that after the elections, she will do everything in her power to get a well-paying position in the EU. Perhaps her undoubtedly considerable beauty will help in that.

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Did the Finnish Prime Minister promise Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine?

The national TV-channel of Finland showed in their main news today Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) speaking to the press, saying, "I was a bit surprised by the strong reaction it got here in certain circles at home. Perhaps this shows that elections are always around the corner. Other parties have taken some liberties, for example, putting words in my mouth that I have never said."

Of course, it is possible that someone has put words in Marin's mouth, and I will not comment on that. However, in this situation, it is important to repeat exactly what she said in Ukraine. Therefore, I will copy the central content of Marin's statement from a newspaper's article where it was published word for word.

Firstly, the Prime Minister said that "we know the schedule for our future fighter jets, how we will get them to Finland, and yes, I think we can also have a discussion about the Hornets, whether it would be possible to transfer them to Ukraine." Additionally, she stated that "Finland is in an interesting position precisely because we have made the decision on a new acquisition, and we have existing equipment and can, of course, evaluate the use of that equipment".

Based on those comments, dear reader, you can draw your own conclusions on how Marin's words are meant to be understood, and how they have been interpreted by the listeners.

In my opinion, with those words, Marin clearly and unambiguously informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people that Finland is in a position to both transfer Hornet fighter jets and is considering doing so - she even emphasized this twice.

And I can't possibly believe that Zelensky, nor his people awaiting aid, could have interpreted our Prime Minister's words in any other way. Nor do I believe that Marin intended them to be interpreted differently than how I have written.

We can only speculate on the reasons for Marin's statement. Perhaps she acted in good faith and genuinely wanted to transfer Finnish fighter planes to a people in dire straits. And perhaps she wanted to initiate a discussion on the matter domestically.

Or perhaps she has become fond of the immense admiration she has received worldwide for repeatedly taking a strong stance in support of Ukraine during the ongoing war. And maybe she thought that her interview in the midst of the war would generate more of the same - who among us hasn't enjoyed those moments in life when we have basked in someone else's expressed admiration.

The third option could be that Sanna Marin acted as the leader of the Social Democratic Party and believed that the strong support of Finns for the Ukrainian people could help her party win the elections in early April, if she promised that Finland would help where larger Western countries have hesitated. And thereby she could even get a second term as the country's most influential politician, that is, as the Prime Minister.

The situation becomes tragically comical by the fact that we don't really have anything to offer Ukraine. The Finnish Hornets will be used up in the Finnish Air Force and therefore wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine's fight against the Russians.

Former commander of the Finnish Defense Forces, General Jarmo Lindberg, tweeted about this, stating that "any retired aircraft has very few years left if everything goes according to plan. In addition, the spare parts inventory is of course being depleted, as there will be no need for parts in the future. Permission must be obtained from the USA for further use, but there is no remaining lifespan."

Unfortunately, I have to admit that while Marin gained great popularity with her internationally noticed appearance and convincing performances during the pandemic, her later period as the destroyer of national wealth and party princess has eroded my perception of her ability as Prime Minister. And this recent fighter jet opening certainly doesn't help - and I say this without any sugarcoating.

The original blogpost in Finnish: Sanasta Sannaa ja sarvesta miestä

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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