2,731 Years to Conquer Ukraine

At least for me, it has been difficult to understand exactly what has happened in the war between Ukraine and Russia during the current year. Of course, it is clear that the Ukrainians have destroyed Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, while the Russians have continued to destroy Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv and other major cities.

What I have seen less information about, however, is how the situation on the front has developed. Yesterday morning, though, I noticed on social media that Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said: “At the moment, the enemy has captured 990 square kilometres since the beginning of the year, while we have regained control of 820 square kilometres. By the end of 2026, however, we will achieve a balance between these areas.”

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It therefore appears that the success of the two fighting armies varies across different parts of the front. In terms of the overall picture, however, the changes are small, if not downright minimal, since Ukraine has a total area of 603,628 km². In other words, the Russians have managed to capture 0.213 percent of the territory of their victim in just under eight months, while the Ukrainians have recaptured 0.177 percent elsewhere.

Thus, the net extent of Russian advances during this period amounts to 0.037 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Or, to put it another way: at this rate, it would take the Russians 2,731 years to take control of the whole of Ukraine—that is, until the year 3757. Admittedly, they would accomplish it “already” in 2495 if Putin’s army managed to prevent Zelenskyy’s forces from recapturing any territory.

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In my view, all of this underscores the absurdity of the war that has been going on in Europe for years. The casualty figures of the armies involved provide equally stark evidence: according to Wikipedia, almost 1.5 million Russians have been killed or wounded, while the corresponding figure for Ukrainians is also close to half a million.

That means that more than one percent of both Russia’s and Ukraine’s populations have been killed or wounded as a result of Putin’s “special military operation.” The former while taking part in a raid on a foreign country, and the latter while defending their homes and families.

This raises the question: how on earth could Vladimir Putin be made to understand the horror of all this, when hardly anyone would dare—even in Russia, at least—to present him with the figures I have set out here? Would it even be enough if Zelenskyy’s prediction, mentioned at the beginning of this piece, that the situation would be balanced out by the end of the year were to come true?

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The situation is not entirely hopeless, however. Perhaps the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure will eventually lead—through the worsening everyday misery they cause—to a revolution in Russia. And surely it is not impossible that the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will eventually have had enough of seeing their sons and other family members sent to their deaths.

Unfortunately, I always remember in this context the view expressed by an older Estonian colleague of mine: Russians will never rise up in rebellion. This is because they are far too accustomed to their poor living conditions, and because they have potato plots to ensure that they have at least the food they need to survive. Thus, according to my colleague, even Putin can count on the support of his people during his senseless military adventure, however long it may last—decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

The Iranian government threatened to destroy water desalination plants in the Persian Gulf countries if the United States begins destroying its energy facilities. As a result, millions of people would face a horrific situation—assuming water production were severely disrupted—since the region’s natural water resources are insufficient to meet their needs.

With this threat—or at least by carrying it out—the Iranians would violate international agreements that prohibit attacks on infrastructure vital to civilians, such as drinking water systems and dams. In doing so, they would act just as the Russians have in Ukraine—without facing any particularly serious consequences. And they continue to do so.

Thus, in Putin’s “three-day special operation,” a precedent has been created that encourages the Iranians to act in a questionable manner. At the same time, it demonstrates the toothlessness of international law when it comes to protecting civilians.

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The Houthi rebels in Yemen are one of the most significant proxy actors of Iran against other states and their governments in the region. However, they have been remarkably passive during the attack against their “patron”—perhaps purely out of self-preservation.

Now, however, the Houthis have announced their intention to join the war on the side of the Iranian government if the United States or Israel use the Red Sea against it. In practice, however, the Houthis’ capabilities would likely be limited to harassing ships traveling by sea.

Unfortunately, even that alone would have significant economic consequences for global trade. And therefore—if that were to happen—the rest of the world might have to consider whether the time has finally come to take real action to dismantle the terrorist Houthi regime.

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If the two threats discussed above are extremely serious, the third case that caught my attention is rather amusing. I am referring to Russia’s threat to halt gasoline exports abroad. This comes after its oil infrastructure has been repeatedly destroyed—most recently even in ports along the coast of the Gulf of Finland.

Of course, the Russian threat shows that they have understood how to make use of the situation. They are scoring points by turning necessity into a virtue. It remains to be seen, however, whether this threat will have any impact on the course of the war, in which Ukraine has clearly gained the upper hand this year and now appears likely to emerge as the victor.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes

According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine has carried out a drone strike more than 2,000 kilometers beyond its border. The target was an oil refinery in Tyumen, Russia, which was reportedly damaged in the attack.

Regardless of the extent of the damage, the incident is significant in that it demonstrates that Russian infrastructure is increasingly within Ukraine’s reach. Consequently, Russia’s war economy is becoming ever more vulnerable — just as Vladimir Putin turns 73.

For example, fuel shortages in many regions of Russia are already severe and are making civilian life difficult. One can only imagine how the situation will unfold in the coming months, with homes left unheated as temperatures drop to –20 or even –30 degrees Celsius.

For this reason, there now appears to be considerable potential in the air for an uprising to ignite. And this seems enough for Putin to be paying very close attention to his own security.

This is underlined by reports that even Vyacheslav Leontyev, the 87-year-old former publisher of Pravda, the leading newspaper of the Soviet Union, is said to have fallen from the window of his fifth-floor apartment in western Moscow. The man is believed to have been well informed about the secret wealth of Russia’s elite — undoubtedly including Putin himself — the existence of which is unlikely to provide much comfort to ordinary Russians facing the coming winter’s cold.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?

Ukraine has sought to undermine Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” by bringing the war into Russians’ homes, namely by destroying infrastructure. As a result, there are occasional shortages of fuel for cars, and home heating does not always function.

The Ukrainians’ tactic seems sound in itself, but Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party), former Chief of Intelligence at the Finnish Defence Command and now a Member of the European Parliament, reminded of one problem. According to him, “in a dictatorship, the risk of going out into the streets is great, because if you are not shot, you will spend decades in a prison camp.”

For this reason, Russians can endure the kind of misery that would lead to massive riots in Western countries. The choice is easy, since—as Toveri put it—“the alternative is a bullet in the forehead.”

It remains to be seen what the winter will bring. In the best-case scenario, heating failures and cold homes will eventually lead to a popular uprising and the collapse of Putin’s regime—along with peace for Ukraine. In the worst case, Russians will direct their anger toward Ukraine, and the people will unite more firmly than ever behind Putin’s “special operation.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?
Will Trump Finally Stand Up to Vladimir Putin?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Finland Must Avoid Ukraine’s Fate

The Commander of the Finnish Defence Forces, General Janne Jaakkola, reminded us Finns that we must never find ourselves in the same situation as Ukraine is in right now. In other words, we should avoid having to repel a full-scale Russian attack as an underdog, where losses in personnel and equipment do not matter.

He also emphasized that the structures of Finnish society must be such that Russia cannot influence the country’s population or infrastructure, even in a wartime scenario. This view has certainly been noted by the current government, as well as by the opposition, and it will not go without impact.

Finland’s defense naturally relies on the strong will of its citizens to defend the country, on high-performance equipment, as well as on the bilateral defense agreement (DCA) signed with the United States and the security guarantees provided by NATO membership. In relation to the latter – according to the Commander of the Defence Forces – discussions are currently underway regarding the nationalities and composition of the forces to be stationed in Finland.

The general also stated that Russia does not pose an immediate military threat to Finland at the moment. However, he expressed concern that we do not have a clear understanding of Russia’s future intentions in Finland or elsewhere.

This is also understood by ordinary Finns, as NATO is, according to a recent survey, the fourth most trusted institution in Finland, following the Defence Forces, the police, and the education system. This reflects the fact that living next to an irresponsible great power helps Finns prioritize things – and security can only come first in this regard.

In relation to what I’ve written above, I’ve sometimes had to answer questions about why the Finnish will to defend is exceptionally high. I believe it largely stems from some form of national memory, where key factors include the seemingly endless suffering during Sweden’s great power era when Finns were sent to die across Europe at the whims of the king.

In this regard, I see the final stages of that era in the early 18th century as particularly significant, when – while Finnish soldiers were fighting elsewhere – the Russians occupied Finland twice (Great Wrath and Russo-Swedish war (1741-1743), looting, raping, killing, and taking women and children as slaves in large numbers. This is something that we absolutely do not want to see repeated ever again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Message From and To Vladimir Putin
Defending National Security: Finland's Response to Hybrid Warfare
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history

South Africa: life without a culture of maintenance

South Africa is an interesting anthropological and cultural subject of study. The country's economy was in excellent shape when the white minority rule transitioned to black majority governance.

For this reason, I have occasionally written (in Finnish) about the events in the country. And today, I will do so based on an Al Jazeera article about the situation in the country.

According to the "Pravda" of the Arab world, South Africa has had uninterrupted electricity distribution for 57 consecutive days, which is the longest continuous period in over two years. This is significant because, last year, power outages caused losses of up to 51 million dollars per day due to the closure of factories, offices, and shops, according to the country's central bank.

However, electricity problems are not the only challenge in this country of 62 million people. Decades of neglect in infrastructure maintenance and investment have also led to the deterioration of transportation networks and water supply. This may result in the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since 1994 – the end of apartheid – losing its parliamentary majority in next week's elections, according to opinion polls.

South Africa has a large public electricity producer, Eskom, which mainly operates outdated and poorly maintained coal power plants. These plants have also suffered from coal and copper thefts as well as corruption. As a result, President Cyril Ramaphosa had to declare a state of emergency last February, with power outages stretching up to 12 hours a day.

Since then, private investments in wind and nuclear power have emerged in South Africa, resulting in the private sector now producing about a third of South Africa's electricity. This partly explains the recent reduction in power outages.

Power outages have also prevented water treatment plants from using their pumps, leaving people without potable water. Additionally, according to Johannesburg's water utility, nearly half of all pipeline water is lost to leaks. This means 70 million liters of drinking water are wasted every day. The reason is the high age of municipal distribution systems: in Johannesburg, for example, they were designed between the World Wars.

Water utilities are also vulnerable to vandalism. Thieves take everything from metal parts to pumps and sell them onwards. And there is no such maintenance culture for infrastructure in South Africa as in Western countries. Even if there were, water utilities struggle to generate revenue because people cannot afford to pay.

South Africa's water situation might be helped by transitioning to a private water distribution system, similar to electricity. The same applies to South Africa's state-supported railway company, which has also been plagued by poor management and corruption allegations.

Last year, the dilapidated railways caused economic losses equivalent to up to 6 percent of the gross domestic product in 2023, according to the country's Ministry of Finance. And that's not all, as the public railway company recently warned that it cannot service its debt of 130 billion rand (7.2 billion dollars) without direct state aid. Therefore, President Ramaphosa has also hinted at the possibility of privatizing the rail transport sector.

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Next week, South Africa will hold elections in a situation where the infrastructure is failing, and in addition, a third of the entire population and nearly half of all young people are unemployed, 56 percent of the entire population lives in poverty, and economic growth is non-existent (with a forecast of 0.9 percent growth for this year). At the same time, crime rates and corruption scandals are daily occurrences.

Last year, the country's debt-to-GDP ratio grew to 74 percent (in Finland, it's 75.8 percent!), and the current government has to use more than a fifth of its tax revenues to pay interest on the debt. This diverts money from other sectors – such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Therefore, unemployment in the country needs to be reduced to increase revenues. Consequently, the next government – regardless of its composition – should focus on stimulating the economy and creating jobs. This could be achieved by offering incentives for private infrastructure investments, which would positively reflect on the country's export industry and other businesses.

It remains to be seen whether South Africa can rise from the decline it has been on for the last decade and a half under the ANC-led centralized economy. Or will its fate be to sink into a typical backwater of black Africa, where nothing works except corruption and crime?

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Should forbidden questions be answered or not? Corruption in Nigeria may affect Europe They want to wipe out from Finland what is good for Africa