Russian Oil Giants Suffer, But the Real Reasons Remain Hidden

According to a recent report, the results of all Russia’s major oil companies collapsed in the first half of the year. A year ago, the country’s largest oil producer Rosneft reported half-year earnings of 773 billion rubles, equivalent to 85 billion euros. Now the result was only 245 billion rubles, or 27 billion euros.

Lukoil’s profit fell from last year’s 65 billion euros to 31.5 billion euros. Gazprom Neft’s earnings dropped by more than half to 16.5 billion euros. Tatneft’s and Russneft’s profits declined even more sharply, but the worst result came from Surgutneftegas, whose performance turned into a loss of 50 million euros.

The companies cite as their problems, among other things, oil overproduction resulting from OPEC countries’ policies, the overvaluation of the ruble, and Russia’s high interest rates. However, their financial statements make no mention at all of the drone strikes by Ukrainians against Russia’s oil industry or the sanctions imposed by Western countries.

It remains unclear whether this silence stems from fear of Vladimir Putin, from Russian dishonesty — or perhaps both.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

According to media reports, Ukrainians have developed a cruise missile, "Flamingo", with a warhead weighing as much as one thousand kilograms and the capability to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. If the information is correct, this weapon could destroy key parts of Russia’s arms industry and/or critical facilities that bring money to the war chest, such as oil refineries.

Reports claim that these missiles are already in production, with one being manufactured per day. That is not enough to work wonders yet, but within a couple of months, according to Ukrainians, they will be able to produce dozens per week.

Ukraine has also had time to test these missiles in practice, though no details about the results have been released. However, it is clear that the most important question in this regard concerns how effectively Russian air defense can defend potential targets—meaning whether it can shoot the missiles down as they travel through Russian airspace toward their objectives.

Still, one can hope that at least some of the missiles will get through and significantly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the weaponry it is constantly losing in Ukraine. In that way, the frontline situation could finally shift clearly in Ukraine’s favor.

* * *

In addition to Ukraine’s new missile, Russia faces another problem: the continuous decline in volunteers willing to go fight in Ukraine.

As a result, Vladimir Putin’s regime has apparently resorted to illegal methods to obtain soldiers to fight on its behalf. One example is 18-year-old Said Murtazaliev, who lived in southern Russia and dreamed of becoming a doctor.

In January 2025, before his final year of high school, he traveled to Moscow to spend a relaxing winter holiday. Instead, Murtazaliev disappeared without his family being able to reach him.

A few days later, however, his mother received a call from the police. During the call, a young woman told her that the boy had been detained in Moscow for some kind of minor fraud.

According to the police, the boy had signed a contract with the army and left to fight in Ukraine. Later, Said told his mother that he had been subjected to brutal torture by police in Moscow, and that he was released only after agreeing to go to Ukraine.

* * *

This and many other similar cases show that Putin’s regime has run out of legal means to get men to die in Ukraine. For this reason, he has intensified the conscription of young men into military service.

To that end, an electronic draft system has been developed. A summons sent through it is valid regardless of whether the conscript has seen it. According to Russian law, however, conscripts may not be sent to fight in Ukraine, since the country is not officially at war there, but only conducting a “special military operation.”

For this reason, many conscripts also fall victim to the same kind of violent coercion in recruitment as that experienced by Said Murtazaliev. To escape it, they are forced to sign a contract agreeing to go to Ukraine.

All in all, it is clear that actions like those described above are gradually leading to growing dissatisfaction with Putin and his regime. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will ultimately lead to an uprising and for Moscow’s current ruler to share the fate of Tsar Nicholas II. In my opinion, that would be more than desirable. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me

The war between Ukraine and Russia came unusually close to me last night, as I observed strange light phenomena in the southeastern sky—things I had never seen before in my life.

In the morning, I checked the news feed and noticed that Ukraine had carried out a strike on Russia’s Luga Bay, not far from Finland, where its drones—according to Russian officials—ignited Novatek’s terminal specializing in natural gas production. It seems clear that the light phenomena I saw in Finland were connected to that very event.

* * *

During the night, the Ukrainian armed forces had also struck an oil refinery in Syzran, in the Samara region—further continuation of the attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks. Best of all, these strikes appear to be having consequences for Russia and the Russian people.

Namely, wholesale gasoline prices have risen on the St. Petersburg exchange by nearly ten percent just this month—and over the course of this year, the price has increased by as much as fifty percent. This price surge is also being felt in the wallets of Russian consumers and worsens the already high inflation, meaning the general rise in the cost of living.

And that’s not all: production disruptions at oil refineries have also affected the availability of gasoline in Russia. This too has an impact on ordinary Russians’ daily lives—which, I hope, will lead them to realize the harmfulness of Vladimir Putin’s war policy for themselves and for the Russian people as a whole. And to rise up against his government and its imperialist policies.

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Oily Trap for Putin

Eight oil-producing countries have decided to increase their oil production by a total of 547,000 barrels per day. This amount is a significant addition to the market and is expected to lower the price Russia receives for its own oil.

If and when this happens, the change will have a crucial impact on the combat capability of Vladimir Putin’s army in Ukraine. This alone may influence the outcome of the war, but if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes the 100% tariffs he has threatened on countries that mediate Russian oil, the Russian dictator will face an extremely difficult situation as export revenues collapse.

Therefore, it is likely that in the near future, Putin will seek both a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front lines and a way to maintain his war chest. And of course, he cannot ignore the need to look after the standard of living of nearly 150 million Russians, since its collapse would increase the risk of revolution.

It remains to be seen whether significant changes will occur in the war between Russia and Ukraine during the current year, or whether its resolution will shift to next year or even further into the future. What is clear at this point is that the democratic world cannot accept a Russian victory in the war; it must end in a just peace—one that does not embolden Putin, or Moscow’s future rulers, to continue power politics against neighboring countries.

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Military Support Is Needed to Reinforce EU Sanctions

The European Union has decided to support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism through the following measures: 

1. The use of the Nord Stream gas pipelines will be prohibited.
2. The price cap on Russian oil will be lowered from $60 to approximately $47 per barrel.
3. Sanctions will be imposed on 105 additional vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, which have been used to circumvent existing sanctions.
4. The exclusion of Russian banks from the international SWIFT payment system will be expanded into a full trade embargo.
5. An additional 22 Russian banks will be included in the trade embargo.
6. Trade bans targeting entities in third countries will continue if they are found to be assisting Russia in evading sanctions.
7. The EU proposes sanctions against the Russian Direct Investment Fund, its partners, and its investment targets.
8. The EU is proposing new export bans to Russia worth over €2.5 billion. These bans would target machinery, metals, plastics, and chemicals used in industry.
9. The export of dual-use goods to Russia will be prohibited. This includes items that could also be used for manufacturing weapons.
10. The EU has identified 22 new Russian or international companies that have supported Russia’s war economy.

This package is a good step, and hopefully it will lead to the gradual collapse of Russia’s war economy. However, what is needed right now is also more concrete military assistance for the Ukrainian army, so that the front-line situation turns in favor of the Ukrainians instead of the Russians constantly having the upper hand.

The United States – at least according to President Donald Trump – is already delivering a new military aid package to Ukraine. Therefore, now is also the right time for EU countries to do their part, so that the shift in the balance of power between the warring parties will be as significant as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine

Israel's attacks today demonstrated that Iran has no means to defend itself against the Jewish state's assaults. Nor does it have the capability to inflict significant damage on Israel, as the mullahs’ failed counterattack attempt showed.

As a consequence, the conflict between Israel and Iran will be militarily uninteresting. However, it is clear that if Iran even partially closes the Strait of Hormuz, the global market price of crude oil will rise — and this, in turn, will have an indirect impact, particularly on the war in Ukraine.

This is because the price increase would result in money flowing into Russia’s war chest from oil sales more rapidly than it currently does. And this would lead to two consequences, both of which would be detrimental to Ukraine.

The first would naturally be that the increased oil revenues would provide more funding for arming Putin’s military, thus strengthening Russia’s invading army. The second is that the burden of war on Russian civilians would ease, thereby reducing the risk of a collapse in support for Putin’s regime — and thus the risk of a potential popular uprising.

For this reason, it is to be hoped that Israel achieves its objectives in Iran as quickly as possible. And if the mullahs attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, its openness must be ensured by the actions of other countries — especially the United States.

For this reason, it is especially interesting to closely follow the war between Israel and Iran over the weekend and the early part of next week. And perhaps even to hope that the Iranian people will grow tired of their Islamist regime and overthrow it through a popular uprising — just as the Shah's regime collapsed 46 years ago. And as a result, shut down Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.

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Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has confirmed at the informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers that a Russian military aircraft – apparently a Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet – violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland to protect an oil tanker sailing under the Gabonese flag, which was en route to the Russian port of Primorsk. The incursion occurred because Estonia attempted to stop this Russian shadow fleet tanker, as it was unflagged, uninsured, and listed under the UK sanctions regime.

According to Margus Tsahkna, the Russian Federation dispatched its fighter jet to monitor the situation, and it breached Estonian airspace for nearly a minute. “We must understand that the situation is extremely serious,” he emphasized.

The Estonian foreign minister stated that the incident is yet another piece of evidence that Russia poses a serious threat beyond Ukraine. Therefore, in his view, NATO must strengthen its deterrence and defense – especially in European member states.

* * *

This event was particularly interesting to me personally, as I happened to hear a loud bang yesterday while I was in a small house in the Finnish countryside – it sounded as if a cannon had been fired right next to me. I don’t know if that sound was connected to the incident over the Gulf of Finland, but I’m fairly certain it was a Finnish fighter jet flying faster than the speed of sound.

That led me to consider the possibility that the Finnish Air Force might have decided to intervene yesterday – although, as far as I know, this hasn’t been reported anywhere – to ensure that the Russian Su-35 pilot didn’t take any reckless actions. Of course, I don’t know if that’s the case, but the incident underlines the need for the countries around the Baltic Sea to intensify their cooperation in order to put an end to the business Russia is conducting through its shadow fleet.

At the same time, Estonia – at the very least – must invest more in its own defense, particularly in its naval and air capabilities, because Finland would not be able to assist its smaller neighbor if it were also under attack. However, in this case, it would – at least in principle – have been possible, and thus the sound I heard may well have been a sign of Finnish-Estonian military cooperation.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Finns - Among the World’s Best

Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future

The Speaker of the Finnish Parliament, Jussi Halla-aho, stated at the Conference of EU Parliament Speakers in Budapest that Europe's biggest and most urgent challenge is to learn from the mistakes made after the Cold War, as Russia poses an immediate threat to European security.

He noted that it is not enough for us to rebuild our own defense and help the Ukrainians—nor is it even enough that Russia’s neighboring countries do their part. Instead, the major EU countries must do more.

At the same time, he reminded that those countries which benefited from European solidarity during the financial crisis, the migration crisis, and the COVID crisis must now show similar solidarity towards the EU's and NATO’s eastern border states. Only in this way can Europe survive future crises.

Speaker Halla-aho also recalled the serious mistakes made over recent decades, stating that "many European countries built their economies on cheap Russian gas and oil, ignoring the risks and warnings. Most European countries dismantled their defense capabilities, believing that traditional military threats were a thing of the past and that the United States would endlessly pay for our security. Moreover, the whole of Europe is dependent on China—from raw materials to industrial production."

Much needs to be corrected now, just as Russia and Ukraine are—perhaps—expected to sit at the negotiating table in Turkey to make peace. More precisely, a peace that would allow the Russians to prepare for their next imperialist strike against Europe—very much in line with the precedent set by the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.

* * *

Of course, peace in Ukraine is not yet certain, but that does not change the fact that European leaders would do well to listen carefully to Jussi Halla-aho, who has time and again been right in his assessments. This also applies to immigration from developing countries into the EU.

That is why he reminded politicians and the press—also in Budapest—that "instead of panicking over President Donald Trump or similar movements in Europe, we should understand that more and more ordinary citizens are voting for them for a reason. People have genuine and legitimate concerns about the changes happening around them. Mass immigration from third countries is probably the most significant of these concerns."

He also reminded that well-off people—such as politicians—are more or less shielded from the negative effects of immigration, such as violent crime and the segregation of schools and residential areas. Less affluent people, on the other hand, experience these effects, according to Halla-aho, "in their everyday lives."

As a result, societies in EU countries are becoming polarized and fragmented, so "we must ensure that citizens feel their voices are heard and that their hopes, fears, and concerns are taken seriously."

It remains to be seen how carefully and seriously the speakers of EU member states listened to Halla-aho’s remarks—and whether they will pass on what they heard to their national governments for action. They certainly should, because—as I said at the beginning—Halla-aho’s views have repeatedly proven correct, and I do not doubt that the same will be true for the points made above.

* * *

Finally, I want to inform you, dear readers, that Russian FSB Colonel Igor Girkin has predicted that Ukraine will gain the upper hand in the war this summer. According to him, "the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gathered reserves, while the Russian Armed Forces have exhausted their capabilities... The next Ukrainian assault could begin at any moment."

Girkin also does not rule out the possibility that the upcoming Ukrainian offensive could result in major territorial losses for Russia. That is yet another reason why major EU countries must now take Ukraine’s military assistance seriously—so that Girkin’s prediction may come true, and Europe's security situation could improve, at least for a time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Russia’s War Rages On – And the World Keeps Funding It

According to a recent report, EU countries are spending more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid for Ukraine. In 2024 alone, the EU purchased Russian oil and gas worth €21.9 billion but provided Ukraine with only €18.7 billion in financial support. Of course, in addition to this, the EU has donated military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, this situation highlights that the EU has failed to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, which is waging a war of aggression. It also plays a part in the fact that Russia’s energy exports have declined by less than a third.

Or can this even be said? After all, the total value of Russia's oil, gas, and coal exports in 2022 was €356 billion, but in the previous year—2021—only €264 billion, and in the following year—2023—€250 billion. That’s roughly the same scale as last year, when it amounted to €242 billion.

The figures above clearly show that the world’s nations do not actually care that Russia attacked its neighbor. Or at the very least, they are not willing to sacrifice their own comfort to support Ukraine’s defense struggle.

One can only hope that this situation changes—and quickly—not only in the EU but also in other countries worldwide, including Donald Trump’s United States. If not, one must start questioning whether President Trump is, after all, "in Putin’s pocket," as was already suspected during his previous presidency.

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Putin, Trump, and the Prospect of Peace

President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, suggested recently that peace between Ukraine and Russia could be achieved in less than six months. This is because Russia’s economy is currently in a rather dire situation.

The situation in Russia is not helped by the fact that Donald Trump, the newly elected President of the United States, aims to lower global oil prices. This would further diminish the revenue available to Putin’s dictatorship. Most importantly, it would lower the standard of living for people living in Russia, potentially increasing their opposition to the war and even leading to rapid radicalization.

One can look to Russia’s own history for parallels in this matter—specifically the February and October Revolutions.

In the former case, the public’s dissatisfaction with Russia’s losses in war (during World War I) led to power being transferred from the Tsar to the Mensheviks. However, the Mensheviks continued the war, which prolonged the burdens it inflicted on the population. Additionally, the government’s actions caused rapid inflation, making it unprofitable for peasants to sell grain to the cities.

As a result, food supply in urban areas worsened continuously, while living costs rose rapidly, and unemployment began to increase. Ultimately, the Bolsheviks launched another revolution, taking control by promising work and bread—and an end to the war that was devastating the population.

* * *

All of this is undoubtedly known to both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. This is why the former has good reasons to carefully listen to what the newly elected U.S. president offers him.

It is also worth noting that if a significant portion of the Russian population turns against the war, the situation will become untenable for Putin, much like what happened to the Germans at the end of World War I. At that time, a revolution began in the navy and quickly spread among the people.

In Germany, too, the rebellion was fueled by war fatigue and economic difficulties. The difference compared to Russia was in the outcome—Germany avoided the yoke of socialism, and the deposed Kaiser survived, unlike in Russia.

The question remains whether President Stubb is correct—can Donald Trump push Putin into a corner from which there is no way out other than agreeing to peace? It will also be interesting to see what terms are set for peace.

In this regard, the Russian revolutions of 1917 and the German revolution of 1918 provide fascinating points of comparison. Following the Bolshevik Revolution, Russia’s territory was significantly reduced as several states—including Finland—gained independence. Similarly, Germany lost territory as a result of the Treaty of Versailles, which ended World War I.

* * *

It remains to be seen, however, whether Trump is willing to push Putin’s Russia into a position as desperate as that of the Tsarist Empire in 1917, forcing it to withdraw entirely from Ukraine. Or will he ultimately offer Putin an opportunity to retain at least part of the territory he seized in and after 2014?

If it is true, as Trump has claimed, that Ukraine is ready to “make a deal,” the terms are unlikely to be favorable for Putin. And they will certainly not improve if Russian public support for the war vanishes.

And what about Putin’s own position? If and when he is forced to negotiate a peace that is a loss for Russia, will he suffer the same fate as the Russian Tsar or the German Kaiser in the revolutions of just over a century ago? Or will he somehow manage to retain his grip on power?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
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Finland Detains Russia-Linked Ship Suspected of Cable Damage

Finnish authorities have detained a ship Eagle S registered in the Cook Islands, suspected of damaging the cable between Finland and Estonia. The vessel was found to be carrying approximately 35,000 tons of unleaded gasoline imported from Russia, suggesting an attempt to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia.

Finland has seized the oil, ensuring it will not reach the global market or contribute to funding Putin's war in Ukraine. This is, of course, an excellent outcome.

Finnish authorities have also gathered evidence indicating that the vessel was responsible for the cable damage. One piece of evidence is visible even from outside the ship: one of its anchors is missing, a clear sign that it was lost during the incident.

The police have already identified several members of the crew as suspects in the criminal acts. These include citizens of Georgia and India, who are being investigated for aggravated property destruction and serious violations of sanctions. Furthermore, additional evidence linking the ship to the cable damage has been uncovered, and more is likely to emerge.

The case is undoubtedly a major embarrassment for Vladimir Putin and his administration. For this reason, it was amusing to note Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov's claim that the actions of Finnish authorities have no connection to Russia. His response is reminiscent of a child caught with their hand in the cookie jar—his frustration is, to say the least, palpable.

It remains to be seen how the issue will ultimately be resolved. However, it is already clear that international law and regulations need updating to rein in rogue states like Russia on the high seas. Unfortunately, the interests of a few other countries, in addition to Russia, are likely to block such progress, making meaningful change highly improbable.

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The Fairness of Climate Funding: Just Another 60 Million Euros?

According to Finland's public broadcaster Yle, the financing of climate action is increasingly shifting onto the shoulders of EU countries. This is because the Trump administration is unlikely to be enthusiastic about participating in the whole effort, while China and former developing countries enriched by oil want to continue as recipients of funds rather than contributors.

China and the G77 group of developing countries have also proposed a new target for climate financing. According to their proposal made in Baku, Azerbaijan, a staggering $1.3 billion should be allocated.

It remains to be seen how the EU will respond to this emerging situation. Will it continue humbly to keep its purse open, or will it declare the situation unfair and therefore unfeasible?

In any case, Finland’s government has already decided to reduce its contribution to the green climate fund from 100 million euros to 60 million euros. As a Finnish taxpayer, I believe that if China and the G77 continue along the line they've currently set, that amount should be further reduced by another 60 million euros and the saved funds used to curb the national debt, even though that, too, may be but a drop in the ocean.

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Good news from Ukraine

Excellent news today. Russians are - according to ISW - losing their position in Bakhmut area. Even better, the attacker´s troops partially destroyed there belong to their strongest unit - the Wagner group. 

In addition, Ukrainian army is making progress in Kreminna. If Russian defence collapses there, Ukrainians may proceed towards Crimea without a need to cross the Dnipro river. 

At the same time, Putin´s troops conducted massive air attacks to Kyiv and other Ukrainian areas. And as a black humorist, Sergei Lavrov denied on negotiations on peace, because - according to him - "Ukraine is not yet ready for peace negotiations".

Even more ridiculously, Russians are demanding areas, which are under control by Ukrainian forces. That is, free of Russian occupiers.

 

Despite all these good and humorous news, we should not forget that Russians still have a material superiority over Ukraine. According to this, Russians have 1.5 times more tanks, 3.5 times more armored vehicles and 3 times more artillery systems. But according to General Pekka Toveri of Finland, the quality of (western) materials available to Ukrainians is better than the Russian weaponry. And the spirit and training of Ukrainians are definitely superior to those of Russians.

However, the import of oil from Russia to Europe by tankers ended few weeks ago, and G7-countries and Australia set a maximum price for Russian oil. After these decisions - if they stand - it is likely that the Russian economy is finally going to truly suffer due to Western sanctions.  

That will weaken the Russian society, and if its economical downhill continues for long, the unity of the whole federation might collapse. So, in the best case the dirty game played by Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev in Ukraine may lead to the collapse of the worlds last colonial empire.

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Corruption in Nigeria may affect Europe

An explosion happened in an illegal oil refining business in Nigeria. As a result, more than 100 people lost their lives. 

Oil to such illegal refineries is obtained by stealing from legitimate oil pipelines, which is a popular business among unemployed and poor Nigerians. However, it was only last February when Nigerian authorities pronounced that they would put a stop to this practice, but obviously without great success.

The explosion reminds us that incapable politicians combined with inefficient - and obviously corrupted - authorities are a serious risk for poor people. But it is not only that, but also a barrier to development of national economy.

Actually, Nigeria had a notable economic success between years 2000 and 2015, which resulted in e.g. almost tenfold increase of Gross Domestic Production. But since 2015 the GDP has reduced by about one fifth, mostly due to low oil prices and COVID-19 pandemic. 

At the same time (i.e. 2000-2020) the population size of the country has increased by 70 percent. Consequently, the rapid economic development per capita seen during the first three quarters of the time has turned to considerable recession. 

The future of Nigeria does not look very good. As oil is the basis of its economy, the green economy transition in western countries will hit the rapidly growing Nigerian population hard. In a very short time, however, the ban of Russian oil in Europe might give Nigerian leaders a window of opportunity. 

Thus, it remains to be seen, if that opportunity will be used to diversify the economic basis of the country, or will the money flow in the pockets of country´s politicians and their cronies in the form of corruption. If so, the price will be high to ordinary Nigerians.

But not only for them, but recession together with quickly growing population in Nigeria could push people to search for better life in Europe as soon as the borders closed due to COVID-19 will be opened. Therefore, corruption in Nigeria may have a major effect also for people living in the European Union in a form of increased immigration.  

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