Instability Returns to the Balkans

I begin this blog post with a look back 111 years. At that time, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo, Bosnia, which was then part of Austria-Hungary.

The reason behind the assassination was that the Bosnian Serbs wanted to join Serbia and pursued this aim through political murder. As a result, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28, 1914.

Serbia soon gained Russia as an ally, while Austria-Hungary was supported by Germany. In an effort to avoid a two-front war, Germany attacked France through Belgium. This, in turn, led to Britain entering the conflict — and thus the First World War began. Around 16 million people lost their lives in that war.

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In his recent column, retired Major General Harri Ohra-aho warned Finns about the smoldering powder keg of the Balkans. According to him, Bosnia and Herzegovina is teetering on the brink of a deep crisis, with the actions of the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik — the leader of the federation’s Serbian entity — at the core of the issue, as he pushes for Serbian independence.

Under Dodik’s leadership, Republika Srpska has passed laws that prevent federal authorities from operating within its territory. In addition, his administration has demanded a separate constitution for the Serbs — a step toward splitting Bosnia and Herzegovina into two separate states.

Behind this lies the strong support of Serbia itself and, lurking behind Serbia, that of Russia. Unfortunately, Hungary — an EU member state — and its president Viktor Orbán have also joined in, sending special forces to conduct joint exercises with the Serbs. In other words, this is part of Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy to shift Western Europe’s attention from Ukraine to the Balkans.

For now, however, the situation remains calm, and most Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs hope for stability and envision their future in the EU. Even within Republika Srpska, Dodik does not enjoy unanimous support. But as we well know, people’s opinions can be easily influenced by the right kind of propaganda.

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For us Finns, the matter is significant in several ways. First, every military-political victory for Putin increases the risk that Russia might test the military readiness of a NATO border country through a suitably crafted special operation. Perhaps not on Finland’s border specifically, but quite possibly somewhere in our neighborhood.

Second, Bosnia and Herzegovina has served as one of the routes for humanitarian migration, and if it falls into chaos, it could lead to an increase in the number of people arriving in the EU. This, in turn, could further destabilize the internal situation in the EU countries most affected by such flows — such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, or Sweden.

For these reasons, Ohra-aho ended his column with the following hope: "Europe must therefore act wisely but decisively. Words must be followed by actions: more support for constructive forces in Bosnia, a clear message against separatism, and concrete steps toward NATO and EU integration. Stability does not arise by itself, and in the Balkans its value is often only recognized once it has already been lost."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russians in Finland Include Both Putin’s Supporters and Loyal Citizens
Ukraine’s Justified Exit From the Ottawa Convention
NATO Sounds the Alarm on Illegal Immigration

Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future

The Speaker of the Finnish Parliament, Jussi Halla-aho, stated at the Conference of EU Parliament Speakers in Budapest that Europe's biggest and most urgent challenge is to learn from the mistakes made after the Cold War, as Russia poses an immediate threat to European security.

He noted that it is not enough for us to rebuild our own defense and help the Ukrainians—nor is it even enough that Russia’s neighboring countries do their part. Instead, the major EU countries must do more.

At the same time, he reminded that those countries which benefited from European solidarity during the financial crisis, the migration crisis, and the COVID crisis must now show similar solidarity towards the EU's and NATO’s eastern border states. Only in this way can Europe survive future crises.

Speaker Halla-aho also recalled the serious mistakes made over recent decades, stating that "many European countries built their economies on cheap Russian gas and oil, ignoring the risks and warnings. Most European countries dismantled their defense capabilities, believing that traditional military threats were a thing of the past and that the United States would endlessly pay for our security. Moreover, the whole of Europe is dependent on China—from raw materials to industrial production."

Much needs to be corrected now, just as Russia and Ukraine are—perhaps—expected to sit at the negotiating table in Turkey to make peace. More precisely, a peace that would allow the Russians to prepare for their next imperialist strike against Europe—very much in line with the precedent set by the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.

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Of course, peace in Ukraine is not yet certain, but that does not change the fact that European leaders would do well to listen carefully to Jussi Halla-aho, who has time and again been right in his assessments. This also applies to immigration from developing countries into the EU.

That is why he reminded politicians and the press—also in Budapest—that "instead of panicking over President Donald Trump or similar movements in Europe, we should understand that more and more ordinary citizens are voting for them for a reason. People have genuine and legitimate concerns about the changes happening around them. Mass immigration from third countries is probably the most significant of these concerns."

He also reminded that well-off people—such as politicians—are more or less shielded from the negative effects of immigration, such as violent crime and the segregation of schools and residential areas. Less affluent people, on the other hand, experience these effects, according to Halla-aho, "in their everyday lives."

As a result, societies in EU countries are becoming polarized and fragmented, so "we must ensure that citizens feel their voices are heard and that their hopes, fears, and concerns are taken seriously."

It remains to be seen how carefully and seriously the speakers of EU member states listened to Halla-aho’s remarks—and whether they will pass on what they heard to their national governments for action. They certainly should, because—as I said at the beginning—Halla-aho’s views have repeatedly proven correct, and I do not doubt that the same will be true for the points made above.

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Finally, I want to inform you, dear readers, that Russian FSB Colonel Igor Girkin has predicted that Ukraine will gain the upper hand in the war this summer. According to him, "the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gathered reserves, while the Russian Armed Forces have exhausted their capabilities... The next Ukrainian assault could begin at any moment."

Girkin also does not rule out the possibility that the upcoming Ukrainian offensive could result in major territorial losses for Russia. That is yet another reason why major EU countries must now take Ukraine’s military assistance seriously—so that Girkin’s prediction may come true, and Europe's security situation could improve, at least for a time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Diplomacy Without Rituals: What Awaits as Finland’s Speaker Halla-aho Visits China?
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
A Finnish MP Resigned After Straining Finland-Russia Relations

Finland Shifts Stance on EU Joint Debt Amid Growing Defense and Ukraine Support Needs

As the United States grapples with the turbulence following the rise of a new administration, the European Union's role in supporting Ukraine is becoming increasingly significant. For this reason, the Finnish government is shifting its stance on EU joint debt, becoming more favorable toward it—provided it is used specifically for aiding Ukraine and strengthening collective defense.

As a sign of this shift, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party) reiterated this position on Monday upon arriving at an informal EU defense meeting in Brussels. According to him, the guiding principle of joint debt should be that investments in defense must be based on necessity and threat assessments.

To clarify his stance, he stated that “those funds should be used where Europe is being defended. In that case, Finland must clearly be among the beneficiaries.”

Additionally, Finland, along with nearly all EU member states, proposed that the European Investment Bank (EIB) should increase its financing for the European defense industry. In practice, this would mean reassessing the EIB's so-called "excluded sectors" list to align with the EU's current political priorities. This adjustment would allow the EIB to finance traditional defense industries in the future.

One point of contention has also been where defense procurements should be made. As always, France—keen to favor its domestic industry—wants EU defense acquisitions funded by joint resources to be sourced from European markets.

However, Finland’s prime minister noted that Europe’s defense needs are so vast that there will be enough demand to support both France’s and Finland’s defense industries. Furthermore, he emphasized that it would neither be reasonable nor even possible for the EU to detach itself from the United States, given that American defense systems are highly advanced and will continue to be necessary.

It remains to be seen whether Orpo’s well-argued positions will gain traction within the Union. At present, Hungary and Austria oppose them, and many other countries—such as France—are waiting for more details before taking a final stance.

That said, Europe does not have the luxury of time. Decisions must be made immediately regarding Ukraine and, as soon as possible, to enhance the EU’s overall defense readiness. At the same time, efforts must be made to prevent the trade war threatened by Donald Trump from disrupting transatlantic economic and technological cooperation—or, more critically, NATO’s ability to operate effectively wherever necessary.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?
Finnish Minister Riikka Purra: “Putin Is a War Criminal, an Aggressive Imperialist”
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization

Henna Virkkunen: Opportunist or Unsuitable Commissioner Candidate?

The so-called political far-right achieved a major electoral victory in the EU elections. At the same time, significant changes occurred in its organization, resulting in the formation of two fairly equally sized groups.

The parties belonging to the ECR share a common critical stance against Russian imperialism, a stance also found in other parliamentary groups. In contrast, the parties aligned with the PIE are either uncritical or outright supporters of Russian imperialism, aligning themselves with part of the far-left The Left group in this regard.

Among Finnish parties, the Finns Party is a member of the ECR and unequivocally supports Western values. This stance has been evident in both Finnish politics and a national public broadcaster's survey, which asked MEPs whether Hungary's presidency should be suspended due to Viktor Orbán's solo actions favoring Russia.

Among Finnish MEPs, an overwhelming majority - including the representative of the Finns Party - supported the suspension, but Elsi Katainen (Renew) and Henna Virkkunen (EPP) would allow Orbán to continue, and Katri Kulmuni (Renew) did not know how to respond. In this context, it is interesting that Henna Virkkunen is Finland's commissioner candidate.

The question, therefore, is whether Virkkunen's view diverged from that of other Finnish EPP members because she did not want to irritate the presiding country, or if she genuinely supported Orbán. If it was the former, her stance does not demonstrate even basic political integrity, but rather sole opportunism. If it was the latter, it raises the question of whether she is at all suitable as Finland's commissioner candidate.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A National Rally election victory does not mean that France will become like Finland under the Finns Party
Former President of Finland, Tarja Halonen, suggested that Ukraine should cede part of its territory
Daniel Freund demanded a ban to Viktor Orbán

 

Daniel Freund demanded a ban to Viktor Orbán

A totalitarian society can be recognized by the fact that those in power disregard agreed-upon rules when the resulting decisions would be unpleasant. This came to my mind when reading about the debate in the European Parliament, where an attempt was made to prevent Hungary from assuming the rotating presidency of the EU.

I understand that Hungary does not represent the mainstream of the EU but rather one of its extreme ends. However, this does not justify the violation of rules; it may justify, at most, a political process to change the system. 

In this case, such a goal could be to place member states in different positions, where the presidency would only apply to a subset of countries. And if such a decision were to be made, it would undoubtedly lead to the disintegration of the EU.

Therefore, the attack by Germany's Green Party member Daniel Freund against Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán should be seen primarily as an expression of totalitarian thinking - or even an echo from Germany 80 years ago. 

Freund demanded a ban on Orbán entering the European Parliament if Hungary were to become the presiding country. Such an initiative is exactly the kind of fanatic ranting that we do not need in the European Parliament. 

Instead, it is necessary to adhere to collectively agreed democratic rules, even when the outcome is not pleasing. Only by acting in this way can the EU remain a democratic community, where all nations and citizens have equal rights.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The European Commission appears unreliable as a decision-maker to the Finns
Fair policy will build a strong Union
Share of EU recovery funds will turn attitudes more negative

What seemed to be impossible just two years ago is going to happen in very near future

Turkey´s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan told to Sauli Niinistö - president of Finland - that Turkey will start the ratification process that leads to Finland´s membership in NATO. That is excellent news to Finns, who tried to get along with the Russians after World War II by accommodating them in every possible way, hoping that this would prevent the great power to direct aggression towards Finland.

As this strategy proved to be wrong, at the latest when Russia attacked Ukraine, the NATO application received strong support from almost the entire Finnish population. And therefore the leading Finnish politicians have been commonly acknowledged for their action in the process.

President Niinistö described how the process with Turkey proceeded. First, president of the Republic, Sauli Niinistö together with the Minister for Foreign Affairs began their state visit by laying a wreath at the grave of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder and first president of the Republic of Turkey.

Then the President of Turkey received the President of the Republic of Finland with proper hospitality. When Niinistö greeted Turkish soldiers, the response echoed in unison like a company to their commander. 

The presidents, walking along the blue carpet under umbrellas, were barely protected from the rain. However, Turkish President was in such a jovial mood that it did not take long for Erdogan to become concerned about the Finnish photographer's wet shoes. As the ceremony began with a slight delay, it seemed as if a rainbow had been drawn behind the rain clouds.

Provided that Turkey will do as promised by their president, there is still one obstacle left. That is Hungary, who remains the only NATO-country that has not started the ratification process of the Finnish application.

That may, however, change soon, as at the same time as Erdogan gave his promise, the ruling Fidesz party announced that the Hungarian parliament is scheduled to vote on the ratification of Finland's NATO membership on March 27. According to the leader of its parliamentary group, the party's parliamentary group unanimously supports Finland's NATO membership.

All of this means that something that seemed to be impossible just two years ago is going to happen in very near future. And my homeland can finally lean on the Western world that shares the same democratic values in protecting its security. 

That will be of utmost importance to me, as it marks the moment when we Finns can finally relax and put an end to the worries over the security risks posed by our eastern neighbor for centuries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

Erdogan wants fighter jets, and uses Finland and Sweden to get them
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine
Why Finland will apply for a membership in NATO