Instability Returns to the Balkans

I begin this blog post with a look back 111 years. At that time, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife Sophie were assassinated in Sarajevo, Bosnia, which was then part of Austria-Hungary.

The reason behind the assassination was that the Bosnian Serbs wanted to join Serbia and pursued this aim through political murder. As a result, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28, 1914.

Serbia soon gained Russia as an ally, while Austria-Hungary was supported by Germany. In an effort to avoid a two-front war, Germany attacked France through Belgium. This, in turn, led to Britain entering the conflict — and thus the First World War began. Around 16 million people lost their lives in that war.

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In his recent column, retired Major General Harri Ohra-aho warned Finns about the smoldering powder keg of the Balkans. According to him, Bosnia and Herzegovina is teetering on the brink of a deep crisis, with the actions of the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik — the leader of the federation’s Serbian entity — at the core of the issue, as he pushes for Serbian independence.

Under Dodik’s leadership, Republika Srpska has passed laws that prevent federal authorities from operating within its territory. In addition, his administration has demanded a separate constitution for the Serbs — a step toward splitting Bosnia and Herzegovina into two separate states.

Behind this lies the strong support of Serbia itself and, lurking behind Serbia, that of Russia. Unfortunately, Hungary — an EU member state — and its president Viktor Orbán have also joined in, sending special forces to conduct joint exercises with the Serbs. In other words, this is part of Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy to shift Western Europe’s attention from Ukraine to the Balkans.

For now, however, the situation remains calm, and most Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs hope for stability and envision their future in the EU. Even within Republika Srpska, Dodik does not enjoy unanimous support. But as we well know, people’s opinions can be easily influenced by the right kind of propaganda.

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For us Finns, the matter is significant in several ways. First, every military-political victory for Putin increases the risk that Russia might test the military readiness of a NATO border country through a suitably crafted special operation. Perhaps not on Finland’s border specifically, but quite possibly somewhere in our neighborhood.

Second, Bosnia and Herzegovina has served as one of the routes for humanitarian migration, and if it falls into chaos, it could lead to an increase in the number of people arriving in the EU. This, in turn, could further destabilize the internal situation in the EU countries most affected by such flows — such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, or Sweden.

For these reasons, Ohra-aho ended his column with the following hope: "Europe must therefore act wisely but decisively. Words must be followed by actions: more support for constructive forces in Bosnia, a clear message against separatism, and concrete steps toward NATO and EU integration. Stability does not arise by itself, and in the Balkans its value is often only recognized once it has already been lost."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russians in Finland Include Both Putin’s Supporters and Loyal Citizens
Ukraine’s Justified Exit From the Ottawa Convention
NATO Sounds the Alarm on Illegal Immigration