30 December 2022

A new Government for Israel, but why doesn´t it solve anything?

Benjamin Netanyahu became the Prime Minister of the 37th Government of Israel. However, looking back in history, there is no reason to believe that his cabinet would stand long. After all, the new Government is already the third in 2020´s. 

One of the reasons for short Governments in Israel might be its high number of parties. After the last elections the Parliament - Knesset - consists of ten parties. Therefore the only possible type of a majority Government is a coalition, where parties contradicting political views must be settled to a common program.

That is not, however, very different from Finland, where we have nine parties and a representative of autonomous island, Åland, in the Parliament. Therefore, also our Governments are coalitions, but last typically throughout the four years between elections. 

So what is the difference between Israel and Finland? Is it the big number of religion-based movements in Israel, whereas in Finland the only religion-based party has only five seats out of the 200?

As we all know, religions have separated people throughout the history, and formed at least part of the motivation in countless number of wars. Or is it the fact, that Israel is surrounded by hostile nations, that cause pressure on the Jewish state? 

It is, however, true that also Finland has a hostile neighbor, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated. And therefore foreign policy unites Finnish political parties almost throughout the political spectrum. And that policy is also supported by a clear majority of ordinary people: for example a total of 79 percent of Finns support the NATO application currently in progress.

In contrast, there is an ongoing struggle in Israel policy towards Arabic nations and Palestinians. The previous Government supported a two-state solution whereas Netanyahu stands for an Israel including also the West Bank traditionally inhabited by Palestinians. 

Naturally I am not the right person to tell Israeli what to do - they must decide themselves. But according to my view the eternal conflict between Jews and Arabs in near east looks like a problem caused by two nations, neither of which has common sense for solutions. 

The solution could be somehow copied from post-world-war Finland. We then accepted that Karelia was lost forever, and - instead of looking for impossible revenge - started a fruitful collaboration with Soviet Union by taking advantage on trade with our big and potentially dangerous neighbor. But at the same time kept our military readiness high. 

Such a model would have two scenarios in the Holy Land. For Palestinians: stop dreaming about pushing Jews to the Mediterranean sea, stop the violence caused by your own trouble makers (calling themselves freedom fighters) and look for fair economic collaboration with Israel. That could be done equally well as a part of Israel or as an independent Palestine. Army would not be needed or - in the case of an independent Palestine in the West Bank -  its strength could be relatively low via a security agreement (guarantee) to be negotiated with Israel.  

For Jews the situation would be more complicated. They should naturally offer acceptable rights to Palestinians including equality against the law, and also promote economic collaboration with the neighboring Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. But also demand that the three last ones agree on peace agreement in a similar way as Egypt has done. 

And in all cases, Israel should definitely keep its unquestionable military superiority compared to the Islamic world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

29 December 2022

Good news from Ukraine

Excellent news today. Russians are - according to ISW - losing their position in Bakhmut area. Even better, the attacker´s troops partially destroyed there belong to their strongest unit - the Wagner group. 

In addition, Ukrainian army is making progress in Kreminna. If Russian defence collapses there, Ukrainians may proceed towards Crimea without a need to cross the Dnipro river. 

At the same time, Putin´s troops conducted massive air attacks to Kyiv and other Ukrainian areas. And as a black humorist, Sergei Lavrov denied on negotiations on peace, because - according to him - "Ukraine is not yet ready for peace negotiations".

Even more ridiculously, Russians are demanding areas, which are under control by Ukrainian forces. That is, free of Russian occupiers.
Despite all these good and humorous news, we should not forget that Russians still have a material superiority over Ukraine. According to this, Russians have 1.5 times more tanks, 3.5 times more armored vehicles and 3 times more artillery systems. But according to General Pekka Toveri of Finland, the quality of (western) materials available to Ukrainians is better than the Russian weaponry. And the spirit and training of Ukrainians are definitely superior to those of Russians.

However, the import of oil from Russia to Europe by tankers ended few weeks ago, and G7-countries and Australia set a maximum price for Russian oil. After these decisions - if they stand - it is likely that the Russian economy is finally going to truly suffer due to Western sanctions.  

That will weaken the Russian society, and if its economical downhill continues for long, the unity of the whole federation might collapse. So, in the best case the dirty game played by Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev in Ukraine may lead to the collapse of the worlds last colonial empire.

24 December 2022

Merry Christmas!

Today is Christmas Eve. That is the day, when most children in Western countries are waiting for Father Christmas or Santa Claus - and many of them even think of him as a Finn.

I am also waiting for Santa Claus, even though I am not a child anymore. Or well, it is sometimes said that a person turns into a child again when he has lived enough. So why not me?

This year, I am expecting Santa Claus with a very special reason, because I will be in a company including both younger and older children. And that is why it will be interesting to follow their reactions when Santa steps in. And to notice once again that the older ones do not reveal the harsh truth about the old man with a huge white beard and red clothing to their younger siblings.

I find it difficult to understand how older brothers or sisters are almost always ready to join the adults and keep the secret on Santa Claus from their younger ones, even though they must burn from willingness to shed light on the matter.

Obviously the explanation is that they are even more interested in joining the group fooling the smallest in the family in a nice way.

With these words, I wish you - my dear readers - a Merry and Clandestine Christmas season!

Previous thoughts on the same topic (in Finnish, but readable in English by Google translation):
Enjoy Christmas!
Christmas memory
Christmas fairytale

23 December 2022

Is the world´s best skier in classical technique, Iivo Niskanen, going to recover from COVID-19

Cross-Country skiing is nationally the most important winter sports of Finland, and has been responsible of the lions share of all Olympic medals in the sports history of my home country. However, during the last two decades the success has not been much worth mentioning except for one skier. 

That one is Iivo Niskanen, who - during the last decade - has been the clearly the world´s best long distance skier in classical technique. He won the World Youth Championship (under 23 years) in 2014 and at the same year earned a gold medal in the team spring (with classical technique) in Olympics. Thereafter he has been the best in the classical competitions of the World Championships of 2017 (15 km) and Olympics of 2018 (15 km) and 2022 (50 km). Only in World Championships of 2019 he was the second (15 km) in the classical race. 

As my reader understands, such a dominant sports figures are rare in countries with only 5,5 million people. And therefore Finns are extremely interested in their hero, who - however - had a COVID-19 infection several weeks ago. And has thereafter not competed on skiing tracks, not in national or international competitions.

In this winter the main competitions in cross country skiing are Tour de Ski starting in a week and World Championships in Slovenia (Planica) in late February. Tour in this year is exceptional, because four out of its seven competitions are going to be raced with classical technique. And therefore Niskanen would have excellent chances to win the whole tour. 

Therefore the most important sports  question right now in Finland is whether Niskanen has recovered from his COVID-19 well enough to compete in Tour. He has been selected into the Finnish Team by the head coach of the Cross Country Team, who, however, said that Niskanen decides himself whether he competes or not. 

Knowing Niskanen´s mind, he will not be racing unless he considers he has true chance for success. But as we know, recovering from COVID-19 may take weeks or even months.

So, if Niskanen will not participate Tour, it is not possible to avoid speculations about his recovery towards the World Championships, where 50 km with classical technique would be waiting to be dominated by the Finnish star. And all sports fans in Finland expect him - if in his best shape - to win the competition by a clear difference to other competitors. 

And even worse. Niskanen is the only - or at least the best - hope of Finland to have a winner in the World Championships, where Norwegians are expected to dominate all other male competitions. That was demonstrated e.g. last weekend in Davos, when they had a total of six best skiers followed by a German. 

18 December 2022

Leaders infected by a parasite

Toxoplasma gondii is an obligate intracellular parasitic protozoan that causes toxoplasmosis, which in humans is associated with a variety of neuropsychiatric and behavioral conditions. The parasite is capable of infecting virtually all warm-blooded animals,  but may undergo sexual reproduction only in felids (cats and its relatives). 

The parasite has been shown to increase rodents' chances of being preyed upon by felids by altering their behavior. As a consequence, rats that do not avoid cat habitations and are therefore more likely to become cat prey.

The famous Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, USA, has a diverse carnivore community including gray wolves and cougars, intermediate and definitive hosts of the parasite, respectively. In a newly published investigation it was shown, that wolf territory overlap with areas of high cougar density was an important predictor of infection. 

In addition, wolves hosting the parasite were more likely to make high-risk decisions such as dispersing and becoming a pack leader, both factors critical to individual fitness and wolf vital rates. The change was considerable as the reported data showed that infected wolves were 11 times more likely than uninfected ones to leave their birth family to start a new pack, and 46 times more likely to become pack leaders - often the only wolves in the pack that breed.

The study did not provide data how this this behavioral modification of wolfs resulted in the parasite breeding in cougars, but according to the authors it is probable that the toxoplasmosis would create a feedback loop that increases spatial overlap and disease transmission between wolves and cougars. 

Taken together, the above described results show an example of unexpectedly complicated relationship between a parasite with its two hosts. The obvious question arising is the effect of toxoplasmosis on the behavior of humans. 

After all, it is very common. For example in the United States, approximately 11% of people have been infected, while in some areas of the world this is more than 60%. The infection rate in Finland is ca. 15%. 

Despite this, there is no scientific information about the parasite´s behavioral effect on infected humans. However, after reading the article linked above I would definitely be happy to see some research on the topic. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Microbes manipulate their hosts (In Finnish, but can be read in English by Google translator)
World oceans are filled with previously unknown viruses
Seeing sex developed novel cultures

10 December 2022

Eva Kaili, unsurprisingly a Greek socialist

Greek Socialist MEP Eva Kaili, one of the vice-presidents of the European Parliament, is suspected for corruption and money laundering involving "a Gulf country". As a consequence, the Greek socialist party PASOK announced on Friday evening that she was expelled from its membership.

We do not know yet, whether MEP Kaili was corrupted or criminal, but I just want to remind about three things. 

First: she is a socialist. That is, she believes in a political theory that has never produced a decent society. In contrast, socialistic countries have always been known for their dual moral including corruption among the leaders of the system. 

Second: she is a Greek. That is unfortunate, because it reminds us that the problems in Greece a decade ago emerged from irresponsible economic leadership of the country. And that we - other Europeans - are still paying for the costs

Third: Greece was accepted as a member of the European Monetary Union despite it did not fulfill the criteria set. 

Taken the items pointed out above, I was not surprised to hear that a European Parliament vice-president suspected for corruption "happened to be" a Greek socialist. Not saying, however, that all other MEP´s would be incorrupted with 100 percent certainty.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

6 December 2022

Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago

Finland became independent in December 6th, 1917. Or in other words: 105 years ago. 

This independence of my country was challenged by dictator Josif Stalin of the Soviet Union in 1939 by a massive attack against its small neighbor. The Red Army reached the Finns' main defense line on the Isthmus of Karelia by 6th of December - the 22nd Independence Day of Finland. A Soviet division attacked over the Taipaleenjoki-river and by evening the Russian battalion had crossed Taipaleenjoki.

On the isthmus, the last part of the protective force (aiming to slow down the enemy´s attack) in front of the main station had retreated to Kiviniemi, north side of the main river in the area, Vuoksi. The battles ended for the night.

The battle of Taipaleenjoki was going to result in more than 10 000 dead Soviet soldiers and 2 250 dead and wounded soldiers of Finland before the war ended in Spring 1940. But that was not yet known during the Independence Day.

The Russians advanced also towards Suomussalmi in northern front. Finns quickly decided to clear the village and burn the buildings down. The situation in Suomussalmi was quickly developing into a threatening one. The headquarters formed a military group named a group under the lead of colonel Talvela to secure the southern direction of Tolvajärvi-Ägläjärvi.

The battles in Suomussalmi were going to result in a loss of more than 11 000 Russian soldiers as dead or wounded by the end of the war. In addition, a bit less than 1 000 Finnish soldiers were lost. But this was not known during the 22nd Independence day of Finland.

Foreign Minister Väinö Tanner organized an Independence Day reception for the diplomatic corps in the banquet suite of Hotel Kämppi. The traditional reception at the Presidential Palace was not organized.

Eighty notable Swedish public figures presented a petition in favor of helping Finland. No military help was, however, obtained from the Government of Germany nor from those of the Western powers UK, France and USA before the war ended. 

With these memories I remind my international readers about the value of independence for free people! And wish Ukrainians faith and strength in their defense against the aggression caused by the successor of the same persecutor we had to face 83 years ago in Finland. Especially I want to thank western countries and my own Government for their military help to Ukrainian people.

In addition, I hope that brave women of Iran would get back their freedom taken by religious fanatics of the country after the Islamic revolution in 1979. And hope, that they would receive all support needed from the rest of the world to make that dream come true.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Finnish army is respected by Russians
It takes heroes to avoid genocide
Why a journalist was unaware on the number of Stalin´s victims?

4 December 2022

Long distance trade

We often think that ancient people lived in separation with little contacts to humans living in other parts of the world. This view is, however, incorrect because trade has been more or less global for thousands of years.

I wrote in May about ivory trade between Greenland and what is today Ukraine in medieval times. And last week I noticed a new scientific investigation showing that a Late Bronze Age shipwreck - from 3 300 years ago - found off the Turkish coast carried tin ingots, of which one third was produced of ores from Central Asia, thousands of kilometers from shipwrecks location. 

The finding added evidence on a vast, disparate and culturally diverse network of trade that relied as much on the participation of small regional communities as on large, centralized states during the Late Bronze Age. And which formed a basis for the economic development that ultimately - during the following millenia - led to the current world based on global trade and cultural exchange forming the basis of the current way of living throughout the world.

30 November 2022

Finnish Winter war showed the way to help Ukraine

Exactly 83 years ago Soviet Union attacked Finland without any warning. Or actually, Stalin´s troops shot some of its own soldiers in Raivola, and used their death as a false excuse for the attack. 

Finland had had a brutal civil war just 21 years before, and Stalin - the head of the Soviet Union - thought that communists would join them, and therefore it would take just few weeks for Russians to get in Helsinki. That did not happen, although soviet army did its best for 105 days, killed ca 26 000 Finns and lost itself some 126 000–168 000 soldiers as dead or missing. 

Not to mention the loss of 260–500 aircrafts and 1 200–3 500 tanks by Russians. Such material losses were gigantic compared to losses of the Finnish army: some 20–30 tanks and 62 aircrafts. And still they did not make their way to Helsinki. And the western great powers did not provide any countable help despite several requests.  

Whatsoever, after 105 days Finland made the biggest mistake independent Finland has ever made. Namely, a small group of Finnish leaders decided to agree with Russians on a peace treaty with extremely unfavorable conditions. 

That was because Hermann Göring of Germany - at the time still an ally of Soviets - had secretly promised Finland that it would regain its losses during a becoming war. The agreement included a cover story - only partially true, but still commonly believed in Finland - that the Finnish army would have been collapsing in any minute. That was, however, not the case - not in the front, and definitely not in the light of  western powers finally being ready to help. 

But western reaction was too slow, and as a consequence, Finland joined operation Barbarossa in 1941, although its military lead refused to join the German attack against Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) despite Hitler´s demands. And ultimately Hitler failed there and everywhere. 

However, while Germany´s military power collapsed by the end of the war, the Finnish army managed to stop the Russian mass attack in the Battle of Tali-Ihantala in 1944 - with altogether some 35 000 Russian and Finnish casualties - and succeeded in making a separate peace, which saved Finland´s way of life as a democracy, but doomed its leaders to suck up Russians for half a century until their communist great power collapsed. 

* * *

During the last few years Finnish Winter War has become common knowledge throughout the world due to its many similarities to Russian´s unjustified attack against Ukraine. And there is a lesson to be learned. 

Namely, at this time the western nations must remember, that heroic defenders under unjustified attack must be supported against dictatorships as long as it takes. That will direct history towards a fair future, and strengthen global values against wrongdoing. 

For Ukrainians the western support will build up the first step towards a western way of life. That is, less corruption as well as more human rights, economic freedom and sustainable society. But we must remember to continue the support even after the war - encouraging and demanding Ukrainians to change their eastern attitude towards more western one at the same time they keep the best parts of their own cultural heritage. And rewarding them as soon as they qualify a true member of the Western world.

26 November 2022

The change in the demographic structure of Helsinki

The Capitol of Finland - Helsinki - is not a huge city but rather a relatively big town with its ca. 660 000 inhabitants. It means that approximately 12 percent of Finns live in their Capitol.

According to current predictions, the population of Helsinki will grow up to 700 000 people in the following six years. But that will not be due to a baby-boom or even Finns moving from countryside, but mostly via immigration from abroad, which will be responsible of two thirds of the increasing population.

Even today, Helsinki may be considered somewhat multicultural town as only about 83 percent of people speak Finnish or Swedish (the official languages of the country) as their first language. Russian is the most common foreign language and is spoken by almost three percent of the population. That is followed by Somali, Estonian, Arabic, and English speakers with 1.8, 1.6, 1,3 and 1,1 percent share of the population. 

The figures above indicate, that most speakers of foreign languages have moved to Helsinki to work in Finland (e.g. Russian, Estonian and English speakers). In other words, they are contributing to the welfare of the city dwellers and whole country. 

However, in 2021 the number of people speaking domestic languages moving out from Helsinki was higher than the amount of those moving in. The reasons are unclear but may have to do with increasing possibilities of remote working, COVID-19 pandemic or increased violence in the streets of Helsinki. 

The big question in the future will be, what kind of immigrants Helsinki will attract in future. Will people move into the city due to its working possibilities or are they only looking for the benefits of the relatively liberal social welfare-system of Finland. And - as has been seen during the last few years - will they instead of working contribute to the criminal records. And thus reduce the quality of life in the town?
The answer cannot be provided yet, but it is clear that the immigration policy of the next Government of Finland will direct the development. The key question to be decided by voters in spring 2023 is, whether Finland will support possibilities for private enterprises to hire highly educated foreign workforce or if it rather opens Finland´s borders to masses of uneducated asylum seekers from the developing world. 

Interesting though, according to recent news, almost one third of Ukrainians - who escaped Russian aggression - have plans to live rest of their lives in Finland. They are hard working, and have not caused similar problems as people from Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan who looked for protection in 2015 using the war in Syria as an excuse. 

Whatever will be the outcome on the politics of the next Government in 2023-2027, its will have a major impact on the future of the Capitol area of the country. In the best case, Helsinki may in future - largely due to the positive contribution of immigrants - be seen as an excellent option for people looking for sufficient income and decent living in a safe environment - but in the worst case the Capitol may develop towards a town with poor street safety but high taxes to support living of increasing non-working population. 

These two scenarios will provide the road make to the future of Helsinki - and ultimately the whole of Finland. Therefore, elections of the Finnish Parliament in 2023 are more important than normally. And voters should use their right to give their support to candidates only after a serious consideration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine

20 November 2022

Strong statement or intellectual dishonesty in COP27?

A historical decision was made in COP27 meeting in Egypt. According to that, wealthy countries will pay for developing ones from damages attributable to the climatic change, which is considered to happen due to the wealthy nations.

The decision was made, and I can only accept it. I would, however, like to hear if developing countries are willing to give up those modern things, which were created along the development that led to the compensations decided. That is: vehicles, flights, internet, phones, electricity etc... 

I think that would be a great sign of their willingness to refuse from such a negative developments, that their innovators are expected to pay for their existence. In others words, staying in each nation´s own innovations would make a strong statement on their willingness to stick in a sustainable way of life. 

If no one shows any willingness to give up those harmful innovations, I am afraid that the decision of compensation made in the COP27 meeting looks like intellectual dishonesty and only a new way to transfer money from north to south. Which may or may not be well justified due to some other reasons. 

19 November 2022

Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine

My home country, Finland, is a country with a large geographic size but small population. It has been part of Sweden for ca. six hundred years and thereafter a century as an autonomous part of Russia. And now independent for a bit more than 100 years. 

During our history we have learned that independence is highly valuable. And we have defended it with huge sacrifices during the Second World War - and learned there how important it is to have well equipped defense forces. 

As a sign of these lessons, Finland did not reduce its investments to military forces after the collapse of Soviet Union and kept its system of conscription. Then President Putin of Russia lost the last remains of his intelligence and started a war in Ukraine. 

Finland reacted immediately. We bought up-to-date GMLRS-rockets from USA and just yesterday decided to increase our artillery capacity by material from South Korea. And even before that, we applied a membership in NATO. 

We cannot predict the future in detail. However, the fact is that even if - or when - Russia will have to accept its weakness against western weaponry and withdraw from Ukraine it will remain a threat to its small neighbors, Finland included. 

Therefore, the future of Finland´s policy should be a combination of uncompromising loyalty with its western allies and - at the same time - a constructive force between Russia and West. All of that supported by a highly capable army. 

Having said the above, I remind our decision makers about the importance of economy as a precondition of the future. Right now the left-center coalition government of Finland has almost destroyed our economy. Its public debt increases rapidly although responses of the public sector are growing due to the aging population

That combination can only be handled by a strong productive private sector and efficient public services. Therefore, the most important task of the next government after the elections next April is to fix the policy made under the lead of our beautiful prime minister. It means, building up incentives for private economic activity combined by a removal of unnecessary usage of taxpayers´ money. 

12 November 2022

Alexander Dugin calls for Putin´s murder

Alexander Dugin has said that Vladimir Putin should be killed for his failures in Ukraine. This is important, as Dugin definitely is not anyone, but a man sometimes called "Putin´s brains". 

That may be exaggerated, but we should note that he cannot be considered nobody. Instead, he is a man having background as an advisor to two Chairmen of the State Duma, who has served as the head of the Department of Sociology of International Relations at Moscow State University as well as acted as chief editor of the pro-Kremlin Orthodox channel Tsargrad TV. 

Therefore his demand is much more serious threat to Putin than anyone in the Russian´s weak opposition. And his request to kill the war loser is deadly serious threat to the future of the President.

Unfortunately, Mr. Dugin is not among those, who would withdraw Russian troops from occupied areas or make a peace with Ukraine. Instead, he would support any means to change the Russia success in its illegal and unjustified war against it neighbor, although it is unclear, whether that would be a realistic option for him or the Russian army.

7 November 2022

China is betting on scientific excellence

There are two great powers in the world. That includes both military and economic strength - and the two powers are USA and China

Still today USA is much stronger in its economy and also in military force, although statistics still claim Russia would be in the second place in the latter dimension - a claim shown to be wrong by Ukraine. Therefore it was interesting to read about ideas of Xi Jinping in China.

According to the article, Xi opened the Communist party meeting - where he was nominated to his third period as a president of the country - by saying that "regard science and technology as our primary productive force, talent as our primary resource and innovation as our primary driver of growth". That is: China has become to a situation, where they aim to increase their technological readiness above all other countries in the world.

Actually they have been looking for that already for quite a while. During the last years their intention has been to increase the R&D intensity by at least seven percent every year, and if that continues until 2035, it could reach the average of 2,7 percent for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the current 2.4 percent of gross domestic product. 

There are, however, obstacles in China´s way towards the leading power of the world. Russian attack to Ukraine has warned political West from relying too strictly on Chinese products, which may reduce monetary income and investments to Xi´s empire. And at the same time, restrict the spread of western innovations to China. 

Even more difficult obstacles might appear from the Chinese cultural tradition restricting criticism towards elder colleagues, which decelerates the spread of novel innovative ideas. Also the decrease of Chinese population due to former one child policy may increase burden to people in working age and cause serious instability in the society. And that would certainly affect negatively also the scientific realm. 

Despite all these obstacles, in my opinion Xi´s decision to bet on scientific excellence is wise. Even if any of the fears turns real, scientific approach is the the best option to find solutions. 

That should also be remembered in the USA, where many universities have fallen to a crisis caused by ultraliberal ideology ("wokeism") questioning even many scientific facts and demanding their replacement with politically correct beliefs. Even though the purpose of liberals may be good, they have forgotten the fact Chinese have realized: a stable, competitive and ultimately fair future can only be built on scientific truth. 

5 November 2022

Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit

The climate implementation summit COP27 is starting tomorrow in Egypt. I just want to remind - or advice - its participants on two facts. 

The first one has to do with the climatic change and its scientific basis itself. To do that, I remind that the mathematical models predicting a climate crisis have one clear output: that is, the arctic north of the globe will warm up more quickly than the rest of the world. 

According to that, the area of arctic sea ice can be expected to melt in an accelerating rate. However, the minimum size of the ice was observed already in 2012 - that is ten years ago - and right now its size is largest in relation to time (November 4th) since 2015. Obviously, the arctic north is not warming right now. 

So, before major decisions to restrict people´s life, I would like to see a scientific explanation - compatible to the current climate models - for these observations. Or alternatively, a new model, that predicts a hiatus for the warming of the arctic north right now.  

Second, the threat caused by the climatic change is caused by an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere due to the use of fossilized carbon sources. Therefore, if any action will be decided to stop the warming, we should rather focus on giving up on the use of fossilized carbon than to concentrate on carbon sinks, which will halt the global economy and almost certainly be used by world leaders only to lengthen the fossil-based era. 

With these two facts I wish to the participants of COP27 good luck in finding sensible decisions that - at the same time - reduce the risk of intolerable global warming and allow better life for all people in the world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Fair policy will build a strong Union
Heat wave in Europe contrasts with the coldness of the Arctic sea
G-index challenges the theory of the global climatic change

29 October 2022

Finland offers a discount for serial criminals

Crimes by immigrant-based gangs are rapidly increasing in Finland, and even police has become concerned. The situation is, however, not (yet?) as bad as in Sweden, where people are nowadays routinely shot in the middle of the day. 

One interesting feature of Finnish justice are the discounts from previous crimes. That is causing discussion now as one of the gang leaders, Iraki born Curd Milan Jaff, has been caught and brought to the Court for a number of crimes.

He was sentenced to prison for ten years due to several crimes including an assault, attempted murder, firearms offence, threatening a person to be heard in the course of justice, aggravated robbery, aggravated deprivation of liberty, drug offence, and preparation of an aggravated crime against life or health. However, if he had conducted only the most serious of crimes, his incarceration would have been already nine years. 

If the crimes would have been punished one by one, the total sentence would have been at least 15 years. In other words, Milan Jaff obtained a discount in his incarceration.

That is against the views of many people, including myself, who would rather think that it would be logical to strengthen the punishment for additional crimes. Thus, dooming a longer incarceration for a serial criminal than the sum of his crimes if calculated separately. 

It will be interesting, if immigrant-derived gangs will change the current practice. At least, one of the parties in the country - the True Finns - have taken this issue into their agenda. And therefore the future of discounts to serial criminals depend on the results of the Parliamentary elections next spring. 

22 October 2022

Fair policy will build a strong Union

EU Commission is planning to decide on legally binding nature restoration targets. Those targets include restoration of at least 70% of drained peatlands and protecting 30% of land and 30% of sea in the EU. 

Those demands would have a major negative effect in Finland, where forest industry is extremely important by producing 18.1 % of exported goods and bringing a tax revenue of 2,7 billion euros. Such an economic benefit has been possible due to the extremely efficient management of - mostly privately owned - forests in the country. 

It should be noted that Finnish forests were not converted to other use - like in most of Europe - despite demands during the 19th century. In contrast, Finnish forests fortunately got economic value due to the developing industry which saved them from being destroyed. 

To ensure the raw material for saws and the pulp and paper mills, many actions were made during the 20th century to ensure forest growth. Tree production sustainability was reached in 1970´s, and thereafter forests have grown every year more than they have been used - although also the production of forest industry has increased. 

Furthermore, during recent decades many voluntary actions have been made by forest owners to save the biodiversity, which already has turned the previously highly negative development more positive. And therefore, Finnish forests are today remarkable carbon sinks, important source of raw materials and on their way of reaching ecological sustainability.

Finland rarely looks for its own benefit in the Union. Accordingly, the Finnish Government´s decision of nature restoration followed those tracks until the last week. And that was a huge difference to Sweden - exerting almost as sustainable forestry - which noted that the Union has no justification in forest issues. 

However, the Commission plans were noted by the Finnish forest industry, forest owners and professionals as well as ordinary countryside people, who put a pressure on politicians. And finally, they were heard in the national Parliament, where the big opposition parties - Conservatives and True Finns - challenged Government´s earlier decision to support the EU decree on restoration. 

And as a result, also Parliament members of Social democrats, Center party and Swedish people´s party joined the opposition. Only ultimate left of the government - Left alliance and Green party - kept their original position as supporters of the Commission´s arrogant plans.

It remains to be seen, how Finland´s changed view affects EU policy. It would, however, be a benefit for the whole EU to change it to become fairer. For Finland the current plans would be roughly equal if Germany was demanded to reduce its car industry by 30% or Netherlands was forced to return 30% of its dried sea coasts back to a seabed. 

Actually, the leader of EU Commission´s current environmental policy - Frans Timmermans - should understand that only fair policy towards all member states will build a strong Union capable to respond to challenges posed by other economic great powers USA and China. And therefore, even small members should be respected instead of making efforts to destroy their preconditions of living.  

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Share of EU recovery funds will turn attitudes more negative
A new justification is needed for environmental activists
Finnish parties agreed on actions against the climatic change

14 October 2022

Human curiosity altered an orbit of an asteroid

I am sure that all of my readers are aware of the cause of the end of the dinosaur era. It was caused 66 million years ago by a massive asteroid 10 to 15 km wide, which devastated the global environment, mainly through a lingering impact winter which halted photosynthesis in plants and plankton.

If a similar asteroid would land on earth, it would mean the end of human civilization, if not even the presence of humans on the planet. Therefore it has been considered as one of the most frightening threats to our future.

Two weeks ago NASA succeeded in altering an orbit of an asteroid using a spacecraft. The achievement showed that  humans could redirect future celestial threats to our planet, and allows us to forget about the threat caused by uninvited asteroids.

The physics and technology allowing the NASA achievement should also be considered as evidence on the importance of curiosity driven science. Without our will to find and learn about the true nature of stars, space and planets, we would have never heard about the possibility to alter orbits of asteroids. 

And actually, we would not even know that asteroids existed - nor that one of those would have been responsible on the disappearance of dinosaurs. And well, without human curiosity we would not even know that dinosaurs lived more than 60 million years ago. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Scientific community discriminates its youngsters
Should forbidden questions be answered or not?
Vikings and the technological cutting edge

10 October 2022

Ukrainian army should be equipped with the best possible weapons against missiles

This morning started with Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian towns including the capitol, Kyiv. According to a Finnish General and Ministerial Adviser for Intelligence "today we got to witness the work of the new commander of Russia's war of aggression, army general Sergei Surovikin, at what he does best: brutal missile terror against civilians.

After this day, it should have become crystal clear to everyone, that Vladimir Putin in not a brave President and leader of the Russian army, but a pitiful mass murderer and slimy coward. And as such, it has become imperative to turn his regime down. 

Unfortunately, Putin has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons that prevent direct attack against Russia and its regime. However, military forces of the brave Ukrainian army should be equipped with the best possible weapons to protect themselves against the terrorist´s missiles. 

I certainly hope that the President of the United States, Joe Biden, understands this and acts as soon as possible to make that happen. Rather today than tomorrow.

8 October 2022

War in Ukraine affects other countries

The war in Ukraine seems to have taken a new step. That became obvious when the Crimea bridge was damaged so badly that a part of it collapsed, and therefore it also became clear that Zelenskiy´s troops have started to prepare an attack to return back the peninsula occupied by Russians in 2014.

Right now it looks like the Ukrainian plan would be first to cut off the maintenance connections of the Russian army and attack the defender´s forces only thereafter. That sounds like a reasonable plan, but we should not forget the highly imaginative skills of the leaders of the Ukrainian army - and therefore the attack on the bridge could have been conducted "just" to regroup the Russian troops elsewhere and thereafter to strike to weak points of the defense opened by the process.

* * *

At the same time, the number of refugees have appeared to Finland from both Ukraine and Russia. Although one could imagine that the two groups escaping Vladimir Putin´s actions would understand each others well, the immigration officials decided to accommodate the two nationalities separately.  

The decision was probably reasonable, because Ukrainians are mostly women and children, whereas Russians are largely young men trying to escape from military service in Ukraine. Even though there has not been violence between the two nationalities, the decision was made due to fears of Ukrainians. 

In my opinion, making the decision before any real problems appeared was excellent as there is no reason to expose Ukrainians to any unnecessary fears - not even to ones with a very low probability. And after all, situations where men and women are isolated from normal life are prone to sexual harassment even though that would not have anything to do with the ongoing war. 

* * *

Finally, it seems that Finland will obtain a high number of new inhabitants due to the war. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one third of Ukrainians are willing to stay in Finland even after the war. If so, they should be integrated into the working life, which is not expected to be even nearly as difficult as it has been for people who arrived in 2015 and thereafter

No numbers are available (to my knowledge) for the willingness of Russian young men to stay permanently in Finland. Anyway, also they would probably be a useful working force, but at the same time their presence would form a risk to the country.

That is because Russia is eager to use Russian minorities as an excuse to put pressure on its neighboring countries - even if they disagree. And definitely, the relatively big share of Russians working in Finland disagree with Putin´s actions in Ukraine: a total of 64 percent of them consider Putin´s "special operation" unjustified, and less than one fifth support it. 

Taken this all together, it seems that Ukraine is strongly dominating the war in Ukraine, but despite that, it affects strongly other countries like Finland via the flow of refugees. When the war at some day ends, it will be very interesting to see, which of those effects will be long lasting.

3 October 2022

Does China prove the superiority of market economy?

The economy and standard of living in China was ruined by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution ordered by the Chairman Mao in 1960´s. After the death of the Chairman, the economic direction was changed in China towards the current system, where communistic dictatorship is combined with a market economy. 

That has led to great progress in the most populous country of the world. And now the statistics tell the Gross National Income of China is soon going to reach a level of $12 000 per capita. 

That means Chinese people are reaching the level of citizens of Costa Rica or Venezuela and has already passed over e.g. Russians, Malaysians, Bulgarians or Turkish. And even the standard of living in countries like Chile, Uruguay or Hungary will be reached in the next ten years - provided that the growth rate of China corresponds to the development of the last twenty years.

At the same time, China has become the second biggest economy in the world - and the difference to USA is narrowing quickly. The difference in GDI per capita between the two is, however, about sixfold - and therefore it very clear that the difference in the welfare of the two biggest economies of the world will be huge for decades. 

Taken the facts above, it is very clear that even a communistic rule may produce economic welfare despite the horrific examples provided by the Soviet Union or - more recently - Venezuela. The key to that is, however, to give up on the economic principles of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels - and definitely avoiding Leninism as a means to apply their ideas. 

Instead it might be worth noting that the example provided by Xi Jinpin´s China seems to prove the superiority of market economy over socialism. And it drives me to consider, if more strict market economy should be preferred over the milder versions of socialism - such as Nordic social democracy? 

After all, considering other aspects usually thought to advance economy are excellent in the Nordic countries. The freedom of speech is among the best in the world, democracy is challenged in no ways and people are highly educated. Despite those facts, their economies have become more or less stagnated (Finland, Sweden, DenmarkNorway) during the last decade or so, according to GNI.

For me, these notions will be of extreme interest in the becoming years. And therefore I intend to follow future developments in the Chinese economy - and make conclusions about the contributions of market economy and social democracy by comparing future developments in China and the Nordic countries. 

2 October 2022

Putin is in a political and military impasse

After Ukraine defeated Russian army in Lyman, the officers of Putin´s military forces reacted in a very interesting way

Ramzan Kadyrov - the leader of Chechen forces - demanded use of nuclear weapons. He also blamed Alexander Lapin - the commander of the Central Military District of Russian army - for the loss of the town. And not only that, but he also said that Valery Gerasimov - the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of defense - had been covering the mistakes made by Lapin.

Furthermore, Kadyrov was supported by Yevgeny Prigozhin - the owner of the Wagner Group. And both were backed up by some TV persons and war bloggers, who blamed military leaders of Russia on corruption and indifference. 

In other words, collaboration within Russian army has been seriously damaged as the key persons are quarreling with each others. And as we all know, that makes their fight against Ukrainian army even more difficult than thus far. Therefore - in my opinion - there are no obstacles in further success for Zelenskiy´s troops - not even due to expected fresh soldiers appearing to the front after the ongoing mobilization of poorly trained Russian reserves.

This all may increase the risk of Putin making a decision of using tactical nuclear weapons. He should - however - consider that western powers could not look aside if that happened. And that there is no doubt they would respond strictly and strongly. 

In other words, it is becoming clear that Putin has driven himself into a political and military impasse. Therefore, we have to ask, how long will the Russian military remain loyal to Putin? And when they finish it: what will they do to him?

25 September 2022

Sweden already in trouble - Finland following

Sweden has become famous of its street gangs composed largely of immigrants from developing countries. The problem was during the last few days demonstrated by two explosions (in Solna and Södermalm) in Stockholm, the capitol of the country.

That reality affected strongly results of recent elections of Parliament, which resulted in a huge increase of votes to Swedish Democrats supporting stringent immigration - and immigrant - policy, despite attempts to add a Nazi label on this party. 

It remains to be seen, if political change in Sweden lead to a factual change. It is, however, notable that immigration-driven gangs have also appeared to Finland. 

According to an older police officer, the number of Swedish-type Finnish gangs is currently eleven and include at least 200 people - most of them are adults and have roots outside the country (typically in the Islamic world). They are associated with many different crime types. 

According to the police officer, it is difficult to say how far Finns are from the situation in Sweden. In a long run it is, however, clear that similar problems will land also in the Eastern side of the Baltic Sea. And it is possible that - in addition to local immigrant-associated gangs - also their Swedish counterparts will appear.

The police officer points out that the current legislation in Finland hampers attempts to prevent - and even solve - crime. And therefore criminal career stands up to a young immigrant as a quick route to richness and fame. The attractiveness of this option is enhanced by the poor learning performance of many children with ethnic-cultural background in developing countries. 

Taken together: while Sweden is already in a big trouble, Finland seems to be following its footsteps with very little concern about its future. 

22 September 2022

Scientific community discriminates its youngsters

Recent research showed that scientific reports are more easily published if their authors are well known and respected scientists - e.g. Nobel laureates. The results reported by an Austrian group showed that only 23 percent of reviewer´s recommended rejection on manuscripts, when a prominent researcher was the only author shown, whereas 48 percent did so when authors were not known and 65 percent if the only author given was a little-known person. The evaluated manuscripts were the same for all three groups.

For me, as a well known and old scientist in my field, but also a supervisor of young talented students, the figures given above are just disgusting. That is because it shows the hurdles for success to be higher for young people. And even worse: the Austrian study seems to imply that old veterans might easily publish less important findings or even rubbish.

The scientific evaluation of manuscripts is basically simple. The peer reviewer of a scientific publication is another scientist in the same field, who is expected to check that the methodology is adequate to the problem and the evidence obtained is correctly interpreted. And that the findings add sufficiently to the scientific understanding of the topic addressed. 

The bias observed by Austrians obviously affect also funding organizations. If the applicant is well known and has a long record of scientific success, he probably gets funding much more likely to his applications than a young researcher with minor achievements. 

Therefore it was interesting to learn, that some funding organizations - such as the British Academy or the Swiss National Science Foundation - have taken advantage of a lottery in their funding decisions. That is, if several project proposals are very close to each others - but there is not enough money to fund all - a lottery will be used to select the ones getting funded.

That should be beneficial to the regeneration of scientific community, and provide young innovative researchers better chances to get funded. After saying that, even this kind of a lottery will not provide equal chances to youngsters, but at least it would reduce the gap to us - the veterans already going towards the sunset of our brilliance. 

All in all, I suggest that at least part of the European Union research funding would implement lottery in its research funding process. For example, in the Framework Programs for applied research - where application process often has two rounds of evaluation - the second round including only top applications rated by evaluators, could be replaced by a lottery. 

And nationally, I would be happy to see Academy of Finland funding to be partly replaced by a lottery. The principle could be simple: in the first step, all applications rated as "outstanding" by expert panels would be provided funding, and thereafter the lottery would be used - instead of the Research Councils - to pick up proposals to be funded from applications rated by the expert panels up to a level of "excellent". 

18 September 2022

Explanation of Finnish attitudes towards Israeli and Palestinians

Today I was reading about Israel´s air strike to Syria, which resulted in a death of five Al Assad´s soldiers. The reason for their death - according to Israel - was the Iranian presence in Syria. 

This brought to my mind the attitudes of Finns to Israel. The people close to the political left - and liberal values - are almost invariably negative to the Jewish state, whereas many people with sympathy to the political right - and conservative values - support them. 

(The exception are deeply Christian Finns, who consider Israeli as the people specifically selected by the God. However, I am not writing about them in this blog post as the number of strictly religious people is not high in Finland.)

This distribution among Finns is weird because the society of Israel is politically - and especially in its values - much more liberal than any of its neighbors. And what independent Palestine would more than probably be. 

My explanation to this dissonance comes from the common affection towards the weaker side of a conflict. In Finland that may have been strengthened by the fact, that throughout our history we have been dominated by our bigger neighbors: we were the poor Eastern part of Sweden since medieval times until 1809, when Russia conquered our land up to the Torne river, which still today is the border between Finland and Sweden - often also called as the most peaceful border in the globe.  

Finally in 1917 we became independent as a result of a temporary weakness of Russia due to Lenin´s revolution. But even after that we were attacked by the Red Army in 1939 and although Soviet Union  was not able to join Finland in itself, Russian leaders strictly affected our foreign policy for decades. Therefore, all people of Finland have got a long history of being the weak one.

According to this, almost all Finns had much more understanding towards Israel that to its Arabic neighbors up to 1970´s. The situation was commonly considered as being similar to the biblical story of heroic David against evil Goliath. 

However, after the Yom Kippur war in 1973 it became clear that Israel was not the weaker one, but a strong military power supported by the United States. And at the same time, the position of David was slowly transferred to Palestinians - a development, where Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza played a major role.  

After that, the better and better flow of information throughout the globe has slowly changed the attitudes, and we have ended up into a nation with a weird distribution of supporters of Jews and Palestinians of the holy Land. Value liberal people economically on the left are mostly favoring ultraconservative Arabs, and conservative people supporting market economy are usually sympathizing Israeli. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A notable difference between Social Democrats in Sweden and Finland
Ellet ole meidän puolellamme, olet meitä vastaan (text in Finnish, but translatable by Google translator)

17 September 2022

The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine

Pax Russiana is cracking in Asia as shown by fights along the border of Kyrgyz and Tajik as well as between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers. The reason behind these fights - in addition to local disagreements - is probably the poor performance of Vladimir Putin´s army in Ukraine.

As Russia is obviously not able to respond to those minor fights, they will most probably continue, and similar cases will appear also in other areas of the former Soviet Union. Ultimately, all those will most probably reduce Russian influence around its neighborhood. 

At the same time, Vladimir Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to look for help to cope with western sanctions against his actions in Ukraine. Although President Xi Jinping of China was very polite, it was extremely clear which one of the two country leaders was the boss. 

It was also clear that Xi is not willing to risk China´s relationships with the West because of Putin´s adventure to Ukraine, especially as they already are tense due to Taiwan case. But at the same time, he looks for possibilities to take advantage on Putin´s distress - such as purchasing cheap oil from Russia. 

In my opinion, this all indicates that Putin with his "special operation" confirmed the lowering of Russia from a global great power to a second level nation among the ranking of countries. And underlines the position of China as the only rival of US hegemony in the world.

11 September 2022

Vakartšuk of the Okean Elzy: Finnish history inspires Ukrainians

Okean Elzy is the most popular Ukrainian rock band. And they are right now giving a tour of concerts in Northern Europe. The leader of the band, Svjatoslav Vakartšuk, was interviewed by Helsingin Sanomat, the biggest newspaper in Finland. 

During the interview he told, that he went to register himself as a volunteer immediately after Russia attacked his home country. He was, however, asked to continue as a musician to give Ukrainians inspiration to stand the war. And that he has done. 

The band has decided to give 400 tickets of their Helsinki concerts to Ukrainian refugees in Finland. And part of the profit from the two concerts will be directed to the victims of the war. 

In his interview Vakartšuk told that "you may not know how much your history inspires us. You showed that a small country can resist a much bigger neighbor. That is a common theme of discussions in Ukraine. Thanks for that."

I am pleased to hear that the sacrifices given by my grandparent´s generation are still used for something good. Both of my own grandfathers were injured during the second world war, but stayed alive. After saying that, I want to emphasize that I certainly hope Ukraine as an independent country will do the same! 

And to become another example of a small country surviving an unfair attack by its much bigger neighbor. And indeed: right now the situation seems to be excellent! Slava Ukraini!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Tradition of low professional ability among Russian security agency and dictators
It takes heroes to avoid genocide
An ignorant mediahouse failed again in historical facts

10 September 2022

A notable difference between Social Democrats in Sweden and Finland

New members will soon be elected to the parliament of Sweden. Therefore an analysis of attitudes and values of Swedish parties was published in Aftonbladet - an afternoon magazine - as a part of a voting advice application. 

The economic, environmental and educational dimensions were as expected, namely Left Party being the most "progressive" in economy and related issues and Moderate and small Christian Democratic parties located at the "conservative" end of the distribution. Social Democrats were on the "progressive" side, but with some distance from the Left and Green Parties. All of that would have been quite similar among the corresponding parties in Finland - except that Social Democrats might have been placed closer to the other left wing parties.

The surprise, however, was seen in the immigration policy. There the Swedish Social Democrats were clustered among the right wing parties - very close to the Liberal party and not far even from the Swedish Democrats, considered previously as an ultra right or even a Nazi group due to their criticism against the previous immigration policy. That would not happen in Finland, where Social Democrats - the current Prime Minister party - is still advocating mass immigration from developing countries. 

The reason for the difference between the two Nordic Social Democratic parties is obvious. Sweden is already in huge trouble with their immigrants, and therefore former immigration policy is not popular among voters. In Finland, the problems are so far only rising, and not evident to everyone. 

The question arising is: would voters - or even politicians - in Finland understand, that repeating the unsuccessful immigration policy conducted in Sweden would repeat the Swedish outcome in Finland too? I certainly hope so, but unfortunately can not see much evidence for that. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

3 September 2022

People with Middle Eastern and North African inheritance identify themselves as non-Whites

The US government classifies people with Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) inheritance as white in official statistics. Therefore, any potential disparity – whether positive or negative - concerning these people remain hidden. 

In a research report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA was examined in two different experiments. 

In the first one it was studied how MENAs and other Whites perceive the racial status of MENA traits such as ancestry, names and religion. The results showed clearly that both MENAs and other Whites consider MENA related traits as MENA rather than White.

In the second analysis it was figured out how MENA individuals identify themselves. When given the option, most MENA individuals self-identified themselves as MENA or as both MENA and White. This was especially typical to second-generation individuals and Muslims. 

It was also found out that MENAs who perceive more anti-MENA discrimination identify themselves with MENA identity. Thus, racial hostility seems to strengthen group identity among people. 

Northern Europe, and especially Finland, was for a long time almost free of people with Middle Eastern and North African ancestry. The situation changed suddenly in year 2015, when a high number of people from Iraq appeared to Finland as a side stream of Syrian refugees due to a poorly considered statement by the Prime Minister of the time.

Namely, the PM of the time – Juha Sipilä – said that he will provide his house to refugees for temporary living. That was in Iraq interpreted largely as an invitation to Finland, and a mass migration of people looking for higher standard of living started.

Today, it is quite obvious that Iraqis in Finland consider themselves different from other people. They concentrate on separate neighborhoods, and have not shared religious ceremonies with the long-time Muslims with Tatar ancestry in the country. 

In Finland people are not officially divided to different races. Some statistics, however, are made according to the first language or country of birth. They show very poor integration of Iraqi immigrants in the Finnish society - including high rates of sexual and other violence crime. That is in stark contrast to Tatars, who are today an integral, well living and invisible part among inhabitants of the country. 

27 August 2022

The beautiful PM of Finland has driven herself into a trouble

The beautiful Prime Minister of Finland - Sanna Marin - seems to have a problem in controlling her behavior during her free time. The list supporting this conclusion has grown quickly.

The first suspicious occasion was in May 2021, when the PM was found out to use tax-free meal benefit during her normal life at home. She had to pay her taxes afterwards.

In October 2021 Sanna Marin was celebrating in her official residency with some of her friends after an event with people in the music business. Afterwards it turned out that there had not been proper discussions - based on the agenda - even during the official part, but the focus was rather in drinking and community singing. 

The third case was in December 2021, when she was seen celebrating in a night club although she had been exposed to coronavirus. And even worse, she did not carry with her the governmental emergency telephone, which should follow her everywhere for the case of urgent need to get PM contacted. She was called twice during the evening...

The fourth case could also be interpreted as a positive thing, unless other cases would not prove otherwise. Namely, in June 2022 Marin was shown in television behaving notably wildly during an ice hockey game with a glass of wine in her hand. 

The last case was a set of videos, where Marin was dancing wildly and was obviously strongly intoxicated. However, the PM of Finland should be 24 hours a day capable of making decisions in surprising situations. According to the video collection she hardly was... 

The behavior of the PM have raised many questions. They all can be summarized with a simple question: is she capable to act as a PM of Finland or rather a safety risk to the nation she has been selected to lead?

Finland will have an election of the Parliament next spring. The cases listed above will probably be forgotten by then - provided that further cases will not appear. And I believe that PM will not leave her position voluntarily before that. 

However, the first impression on the effect of the latest misbehavior of the PM - that seems to be more serious than previously - will be obtained when new polls measuring popularity of political parties appear. That is, pretty soon.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The pressure on Sanna Marini is growing, but will she and/or the government resign?? In Finnish, but translatable by google translator.

26 August 2022

Increase of violence by youngsters in Finnish towns

Migration from Iraq and Somalia (notably, not so much from Syria) to Finland in 2015 has resulted in a considerable loss of safety. After that, the number of sexual assaults and cases of youth violence have increased considerably. 

Police announced today that the number of violent assaults by youngsters - or children - under 15 years of age have exploded in two biggest towns of the southwestern part of the country, Turku and Pori. The development has not been as fast in other big towns, but the direction is the same. 

This all means that we are following the tracks of Sweden, where immigrant-derived gangs are forming their own rules, and even police has difficulties in entering into some hoods inhabited by people of non-Swedish inheritance. In Finland no such suburb exist, but some areas can already be seen to follow the tracks.  

Therefore it is the last moment for the government and other decision makers to stop the dangerous development, although right now that cannot be expected due to the Marin cabinet composed mostly of green and leftist parties. However there will be elections for the parliament next spring, where citizens can make their choices. 

Immigration policy should be among the central topics to be discussed during the campaigns although the immigrant numbers from developing countries are currently low. If so, the conversation must be detailed enough to make a distinction between recent - highly welcome - immigrants from Ukraine and trouble makers.

20 August 2022

Tradition of low professional ability among Russian security agency and dictators

According to the Washington Post, the Russian Federal Security Service misinformed Vladimir Putin prior to his decision to attack Ukraine. According to its poor evaluation, the war would be over in a very short time. 

To us in Finland, there was nothing new. It was the security service of Soviet Union that informed dictator Josif Stalin in 1939, that Russian army would be able to march to Helsinki - the capitol of Finland - in just few weeks. Based on that Stalin ordered his army to conquer Finland. As a result, they lost 126 875–167 976 soldiers as dead or missing as well as 188 671–207 538 as wounded or sick and 5 572 as captured. And as a result, the Russian attack in 1939 pushed Finland to join the German invasion to Russia in 1941.

So its seems that Russian security agencies have a tradition of exceptionally poor professional skills and their dictators poor understanding on the willingness of their neighboring nations to defend themselves. Surprisingly, dictator Putin had not even learned his lesson from 1939. I would call this utter stupidity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
How can Vladimir Putin survive from his propaganda after the Russian loss in Ukraine?
Is President Putin on his way to repeat the destiny of Czar Nicholas II?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor