Message from Finland's President to Vladimir Putin

The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a UK-led international rapid response force focused on crisis management, involving ten nations. The assembly of the forces began in 2012, and currently, besides the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands contribute troops to the initiative.

Currently, a summit of JEF member state leaders is underway in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. Topics on the agenda include supporting Ukraine, increasing defense spending, and enhancing defense cooperation.

According to Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, “Before we can start discussions on peace negotiations and a ceasefire, we must continue to support Ukraine. And the support must be very practical. This means providing weapons and ammunition so that Ukraine can win the war on the battlefield.”

He also added, “As Finns, we know what we are talking about. After the Winter War and Continuation War, we paid the price for our independence, losing territory and sovereignty. We must ensure that this does not happen in Ukraine.”

Reporters also asked Finland's president for a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His response was brief and to the point: “Withdraw!”

President Putin, however, is unlikely to heed his Finnish counterpart’s advice. This makes it all the more significant that Ukraine’s security service recently reduced the ranks of Putin’s army by one general—right in Moscow. This demonstrates that even Russia’s military leaders must fear for their safety while moving around the nation’s capital, and it may well leave them privately hoping that Putin unexpectedly orders the lowering of arms.

At the same time, ordinary Moscow residents who support the war are forced to confront the reality that Ukraine can now strike even their home city. For the smartest among them, it might occur that Finland’s president’s advice was unusually spot on.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria
Anecdotes and Jokes About Vladimir Putin
Ukraine can and will stop Putin

Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

According to BBC, a former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump - Bryan Lanza - says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to regain territory occupied by Russia. Furthermore, he stated that "if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well, we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious, Crimea is gone."

However, Lanza no longer works for Trump, so it's difficult to say if his words carry much weight. Still, it’s always permissible to speculate.

In my opinion, it has long been clear that Russia—at least under Vladimir Putin's rule—will not stop if it can gain advantages through military actions. And turning Crimea over to Moscow’s control would indeed be one such advantage in the highest degree.

Thus, it seems likely that once peace is achieved, Putin would first focus on rearming his military and would use it in the future when a suitable target appears. That target could be one of the neighboring countries in either Europe or Asia.

For Ukrainians, the problem is also the fact that Russia has not kept its promise to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, along with a few other countries, made this promise when the government in Kyiv surrendered Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia.

The treaty text states: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."

As my esteemed reader has noticed, the United States would also be breaking its promise if the Trump administration acts as Lanza predicts. It is clear that if this happens, international treaties and their significance will become even less meaningful. And this does not benefit relations between states.

One can only hope that this will be understood within the Trump administration as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit

The climate implementation summit COP27 is starting tomorrow in Egypt. I just want to remind - or advice - its participants on two facts. 

The first one has to do with the climatic change and its scientific basis itself. To do that, I remind that the mathematical models predicting a climate crisis have one clear output: that is, the arctic north of the globe will warm up more quickly than the rest of the world. 

According to that, the area of arctic sea ice can be expected to melt in an accelerating rate. However, the minimum size of the ice was observed already in 2012 - that is ten years ago - and right now its size is largest in relation to time (November 4th) since 2015. Obviously, the arctic north is not warming right now. 

So, before major decisions to restrict people´s life, I would like to see a scientific explanation - compatible to the current climate models - for these observations. Or alternatively, a new model, that predicts a hiatus for the warming of the arctic north right now.  

Second, the threat caused by the climatic change is caused by an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere due to the use of fossilized carbon sources. Therefore, if any action will be decided to stop the warming, we should rather focus on giving up on the use of fossilized carbon than to concentrate on carbon sinks, which will halt the global economy and almost certainly be used by world leaders only to lengthen the fossil-based era. 

With these two facts I wish to the participants of COP27 good luck in finding sensible decisions that - at the same time - reduce the risk of intolerable global warming and allow better life for all people in the world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Fair policy will build a strong Union
Heat wave in Europe contrasts with the coldness of the Arctic sea
G-index challenges the theory of the global climatic change