Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

According to BBC, a former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump - Bryan Lanza - says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to regain territory occupied by Russia. Furthermore, he stated that "if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well, we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious, Crimea is gone."

However, Lanza no longer works for Trump, so it's difficult to say if his words carry much weight. Still, it’s always permissible to speculate.

In my opinion, it has long been clear that Russia—at least under Vladimir Putin's rule—will not stop if it can gain advantages through military actions. And turning Crimea over to Moscow’s control would indeed be one such advantage in the highest degree.

Thus, it seems likely that once peace is achieved, Putin would first focus on rearming his military and would use it in the future when a suitable target appears. That target could be one of the neighboring countries in either Europe or Asia.

For Ukrainians, the problem is also the fact that Russia has not kept its promise to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, along with a few other countries, made this promise when the government in Kyiv surrendered Soviet-era nuclear weapons to Russia.

The treaty text states: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."

As my esteemed reader has noticed, the United States would also be breaking its promise if the Trump administration acts as Lanza predicts. It is clear that if this happens, international treaties and their significance will become even less meaningful. And this does not benefit relations between states.

One can only hope that this will be understood within the Trump administration as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944