Is Putin's Administration Rational?

According to news reports, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has given Ukrainians permission to strike Russian territory using American missiles. Member of the Finnish Parliament and Doctor of Military Science Jarmo Limnell (National Coalition Party) has supported the decision.

This is because, as Limnell explains, "Ukraine, defending its independence, has had to fight in the 'boxing ring of war' with one hand tied behind its back. Now, the other hand is freed."

In Russia, however, the reaction was far from enthusiastic, and threats resumed. For example, a Russian politician, Vladimir Dzhabarov, ominously claimed, “This is a very large step toward the start of World War III.”

Thus, we must ask: is a Third World War on the brink of breaking out, something that, at least in my youth, was feared capable of destroying humanity as a whole—and along with it, all advanced life forms? Or are we once again simply witnessing typical Russian rhetoric?

First, it must be noted that Vladimir Putin’s earlier threats concerning Western support for Ukraine have not materialized. Second, it’s essential to recognize that Russia would inevitably face defeat if the situation escalated into a full-scale war against the United States. This is because there is a vast disparity in military technology between the two countries, as shown by Israel’s successful strikes using Western technology against Iranian forces equipped with Russian arms.

On the other hand, it’s also crucial to remember that this gap in technology would hardly matter if Russia decided to use nuclear weapons. Even if it’s clear that most, if not all, of these missiles would be intercepted, those that made it through would cause such extensive devastation that there would be no true victors in the war.

Additionally, it’s evident that Russia lacks the capacity to defend against a possible Western retaliatory strike with nuclear weapons, meaning the resulting destruction in Russia would be catastrophically vast. This is why responsible leadership in Russia cannot consider using nuclear weapons unless it faces an existential threat.

The use of U.S.-provided conventional missiles with standard warheads within Russia poses no such existential threat, though it would increase the cost of the war for Putin’s administration. Thus, a rational Russian leadership would not resort to nuclear weapons on this account.

This leads us to the question: Is Vladimir Putin, along with the rest of Russia’s leadership, rational? And we must hope that, despite everything we have seen so far, the answer is still "yes."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine