Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Russia has found itself increasingly cornered in its three-day special military operation in recent days. Perhaps the most striking example of this is the destruction of oil industry facilities in the Moscow region—caused primarily by Ukrainian drones, but apparently also by Russian air defense systems themselves.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have extended their attacks as far as the Tyumen oil refinery, located some 2,500 kilometers away. Nor does the plight of the Crimean Peninsula, due to the vulnerability of its supply lines, make President Vladimir Putin's position any easier.

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All of this has led to a counteroffensive by Russian trolls on social media. The strikes on Moscow are claimed to be a hoax, there are assertions that Russia is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, and there are even threats of nuclear war being triggered by the destruction of the oil industry.

In fact, the outbreak of nuclear war as a consequence of Russia's deteriorating fortunes in the war may be a real threat if Vladimir Putin fears that his position could be endangered by a military defeat. From his perspective, defeat could mean being overthrown or even losing his life.

For this reason, it would be important for Western countries—and especially the United States—to state unequivocally that the use of a Russian nuclear weapon would, under any circumstances, cross the threshold for retaliation directed at wherever intelligence indicates Putin happens to be residing at the time. Hopefully, the fear resulting from such a declaration would be sufficient in all circumstances to keep Russian nuclear weapons on their launch platforms.

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At the same time, it should be emphasized to Russia's dictator that he still has the opportunity to make peace. All that would be required is the withdrawal of his forces from Ukraine and the payment of compensation for the destruction caused by his special military operation.

And that Putin still possesses at least a small measure of common sense. On the other hand, it may be—as I wrote above—that Putin no longer has a future if Russia returns from Ukraine defeated. He is undoubtedly aware of the historical precedent of Russia's defeat in the First World War, which led to the murder of Tsar Nicholas II and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?
The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army
Russia’s Shadow Fleet Exposes Gaps in International Law

Is Putin's Administration Rational?

According to news reports, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has given Ukrainians permission to strike Russian territory using American missiles. Member of the Finnish Parliament and Doctor of Military Science Jarmo Limnell (National Coalition Party) has supported the decision.

This is because, as Limnell explains, "Ukraine, defending its independence, has had to fight in the 'boxing ring of war' with one hand tied behind its back. Now, the other hand is freed."

In Russia, however, the reaction was far from enthusiastic, and threats resumed. For example, a Russian politician, Vladimir Dzhabarov, ominously claimed, “This is a very large step toward the start of World War III.”

Thus, we must ask: is a Third World War on the brink of breaking out, something that, at least in my youth, was feared capable of destroying humanity as a whole—and along with it, all advanced life forms? Or are we once again simply witnessing typical Russian rhetoric?

First, it must be noted that Vladimir Putin’s earlier threats concerning Western support for Ukraine have not materialized. Second, it’s essential to recognize that Russia would inevitably face defeat if the situation escalated into a full-scale war against the United States. This is because there is a vast disparity in military technology between the two countries, as shown by Israel’s successful strikes using Western technology against Iranian forces equipped with Russian arms.

On the other hand, it’s also crucial to remember that this gap in technology would hardly matter if Russia decided to use nuclear weapons. Even if it’s clear that most, if not all, of these missiles would be intercepted, those that made it through would cause such extensive devastation that there would be no true victors in the war.

Additionally, it’s evident that Russia lacks the capacity to defend against a possible Western retaliatory strike with nuclear weapons, meaning the resulting destruction in Russia would be catastrophically vast. This is why responsible leadership in Russia cannot consider using nuclear weapons unless it faces an existential threat.

The use of U.S.-provided conventional missiles with standard warheads within Russia poses no such existential threat, though it would increase the cost of the war for Putin’s administration. Thus, a rational Russian leadership would not resort to nuclear weapons on this account.

This leads us to the question: Is Vladimir Putin, along with the rest of Russia’s leadership, rational? And we must hope that, despite everything we have seen so far, the answer is still "yes."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine