Is Putin's Administration Rational?

According to news reports, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has given Ukrainians permission to strike Russian territory using American missiles. Member of the Finnish Parliament and Doctor of Military Science Jarmo Limnell (National Coalition Party) has supported the decision.

This is because, as Limnell explains, "Ukraine, defending its independence, has had to fight in the 'boxing ring of war' with one hand tied behind its back. Now, the other hand is freed."

In Russia, however, the reaction was far from enthusiastic, and threats resumed. For example, a Russian politician, Vladimir Dzhabarov, ominously claimed, “This is a very large step toward the start of World War III.”

Thus, we must ask: is a Third World War on the brink of breaking out, something that, at least in my youth, was feared capable of destroying humanity as a whole—and along with it, all advanced life forms? Or are we once again simply witnessing typical Russian rhetoric?

First, it must be noted that Vladimir Putin’s earlier threats concerning Western support for Ukraine have not materialized. Second, it’s essential to recognize that Russia would inevitably face defeat if the situation escalated into a full-scale war against the United States. This is because there is a vast disparity in military technology between the two countries, as shown by Israel’s successful strikes using Western technology against Iranian forces equipped with Russian arms.

On the other hand, it’s also crucial to remember that this gap in technology would hardly matter if Russia decided to use nuclear weapons. Even if it’s clear that most, if not all, of these missiles would be intercepted, those that made it through would cause such extensive devastation that there would be no true victors in the war.

Additionally, it’s evident that Russia lacks the capacity to defend against a possible Western retaliatory strike with nuclear weapons, meaning the resulting destruction in Russia would be catastrophically vast. This is why responsible leadership in Russia cannot consider using nuclear weapons unless it faces an existential threat.

The use of U.S.-provided conventional missiles with standard warheads within Russia poses no such existential threat, though it would increase the cost of the war for Putin’s administration. Thus, a rational Russian leadership would not resort to nuclear weapons on this account.

This leads us to the question: Is Vladimir Putin, along with the rest of Russia’s leadership, rational? And we must hope that, despite everything we have seen so far, the answer is still "yes."

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine

Meretricious Democracy

Yesterday's news revealed the world's most popular president by far. He is Paul Kagame, who rose to power after the Rwandan genocide and received 99.18 percent of the votes in the recent elections. In other words, his two competitors together received just under a percent of the votes.

The achieved election result was also Kagame's personal record, as the same news report indicated that he previously only reached a 98.8 percent performance. Or were the competing candidates more popular in the past elections than in the recent ones?

It was also interesting to note that a few days ago, when the US President Joe Biden stepped aside, Vice President Kamala Harris raised $230 million for her campaign in two days. This means nearly $115 million per day.

With this money, she will certainly get a good start, especially as Biden's already collected $96 million will likely end up at her disposal. And perhaps those who have already offered Biden a $700 million support package will transfer their promises to the Vice President.

From all this, we can see that democracy in the great West is not cheap, as the other candidate - Donald Trump - will undoubtedly raise a substantial amount for his use as well. For comparison, it should be remembered that presidential candidate Alexander Stubb collected a modest €2.7 million for his use in the last elections.

Unfortunately, the media has not reported the size of Kagame's campaign fund. But if I may guess, it probably does not contain a very large stack of bills, as he likely had more effective means at his disposal. So much so that Rwandan democracy could be considered meretricious.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The British human rights decision led to unwarranted calls
Biden's Withdrawal Opens a New Possibility for Democrats!
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt

Biden's Withdrawal Opens a New Possibility for Democrats!

Yesterday brought the long-awaited news of Joe Biden's announcement to not pursue a second presidential term. This immediately reshaped the course of the U.S. presidential election.

At this point, many are likely certain that Biden’s withdrawal has secured Donald Trump’s re-election for a second term as the president of the world's leading superpower. However, I am not so sure about this.

Of course, I admit that Trump’s challenger is in a hurry to justify to the nation why he or she should be elected. The situation is not made any easier by the fact that the competitor has gained sympathy from an assassination attempt against him.

In reality, however, the new candidate—whoever he or she may be—holds a trump card, at least if he or she is relatively unknown to most of the electorate. This way, his or her first national appearance will create an unusually significant impression on the voters.

If this impression pleases the majority of voters, Donald Trump will be in trouble, because despite his great popularity, he also evokes a lot of negative feelings among people. Therefore, in a country with low voter turnout like the United States, an appealing candidate might motivate even those voters who could not imagine placing their trust in either Biden or Trump.

Therefore, the Democrats should look for a candidate who has the potential to successfully launch their campaign in the manner I described above. But if they fail to do so, another four years of Trumpism lies ahead.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Joe Biden Must Step Aside, But Can a Suitable Candidate Be Found?
Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

Ukraine can and will stop Putin

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said yesterday, during the NATO summit, that Ukraine will leave the meeting satisfied. One reason for this is that the United States, Germany, Romania, and the Netherlands confirmed in a statement released at the NATO summit that they are providing Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems.

This comes at a more than opportune time, as Russia has shown that it aims to destroy the entire Ukrainian society instead of just the Ukrainian army by launching missile attacks on a children's hospital. This is, of course, such a war crime that overlooking it with a shrug would be almost a crime against humanity in itself.

This was also noted by US President Joe Biden, who stated that "Putin wants nothing more than the complete defeat and erasure of Ukraine from the map." Additionally, he was pleased to note that NATO countries have invested more in their defense forces in recent years.

However, the most important outcome of the meeting was the agreement to grant a 40 billion aid package to Ukraine for next year. It is hoped that this will help Ukrainians protect themselves from Russia's war of destruction against civilians and, at the same time, turn the tide of the war permanently against Putin's army.

Biden also believed this, stating that "Ukraine can and will stop Putin."

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine
Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen

Joe Biden Must Step Aside, But Can a Suitable Candidate Be Found?

The fragile president of the USA, Joe Biden, failed completely in his recent debate but is still aiming for a second term. This would very likely mean that Donald Trump will return to lead the USA.

This is bad news for the entire world. However, it would also be bad if Biden continues in power, especially if he is as senile as he appeared during the debate.

This is because the world needs a competent leader for the flagship of democratic nations. One who can find ways to defeat Russia in Ukraine, ensure that China doesn't even consider attempting to conquer Taiwan, and keep Islamist extremists in check.

For this reason, I really hope that Biden will withdraw his candidacy. But that is not enough; a replacement candidate must also be found for the Democrats, someone who can guide the Western superpower’s economy to continue growing, take an interest in global politics, and ensure internal security in the USA.

It is unfortunately clear that the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, is not such a person, but could a competent replacement for Biden be found? Someone intelligent, competent, and capable.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Brianna Wu's advice and the reality of Finnish politics
Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

During the Eurovision song spectacle, the incompetence of EU officials was revealed

During the Eurovision spectacle, the confrontation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip has escalated to a new phase. This means that the terrorists' last stronghold is becoming the target of an Israeli attack, and therefore the army of the Jewish state has ordered civilians to evacuate from the eastern Ramallah area.

There seem to be three reasons for this. Firstly, to prevent civilian casualties, and secondly, to prevent them from being used as human shields by terrorists. Thirdly, reducing the population may facilitate the discovery of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

All of this is happening despite the disapproval of Israel's evacuation orders by Charles Michel, the Belgian chairman of the European Council. So, would he, as a high-ranking EU official sometimes referred to as the EU president, think it better if Palestinian terrorists were given the opportunity to use human shields, thereby increasing the number of civilian casualties in the Gaza conflict? Or should the hostages captured by Hamas be left in their hands?

According to Michel, "all efforts must continue to achieve a sustainable ceasefire agreement. The EU is committed to a just and comprehensive peace based on a two-state solution."

This repeats the mantra that only complicates the situation in the Holy Land, as not all Palestinians accept a two-state solution, nor will Israelis sit idly by in the face of continued rocket attacks and other acts of terror. Therefore, to solve the Palestinian problem, creative thinking is needed instead of incessantly advocating for a two-state solution, as I provided an example last Christmas.

It would also be good if the President of the European Council had heard of Finland´s former President Juho Kusti Paasikivi and understood that acknowledging facts is the beginning of wisdom.

In the short term, this would mean following the example of US President Joe Biden. That is, understanding that a ceasefire would begin tomorrow if Hamas released the hostages. According to Biden: "Israel said it's up to Hamas, if they wanted to do it, we could end it tomorrow. And the ceasefire would begin tomorrow".

This (too) raised the question of how the European Union chooses its high-ranking officials. Apparently, not based on logical reasoning or strong understanding.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Christmas gift to the Holy Land
Palestinian responsibility
Palestinians: acknowledging facts is the beginning of wisdom!

Fear drove Putin, a follower of Josif, to murder Alexei Navalny

The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin killed his only politically significant challenger - Alexei Navalny - far away in Siberia. In doing so, he demonstrated his faithful adherence to the path paved by his role model, Josif Stalin: it's better to eliminate those who threaten the leader's power before they become a real danger - or preferably at the first suspicion in the sick mind of the dictator.

Navalny's murder was, of course, no surprise considering Russia's previous events involving falling out of windows and various poisonings. It will also not be surprising that Putin commissions a report on Navalny's death, which has no connection to the truth, despite claims to the contrary - это правда.

There have been various reactions to Navalny's case, most notably the statement from U.S. President Joe Biden, who bluntly stated, "Russian authorities tell their own story. But make no mistake, Putin is responsible for Navalny's death."

Biden's Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on the other hand, stated that "His death in a Russian prison and the fixation and fear of one man only underscores the weakness and rot at the heart of the system that Putin has built." And he hit the nail on the head - Vladimir, like his Josif, is also similar in his neurotic fear, so it is not difficult to predict that he will continue to kill people with an even lighter hand in the future.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin's latest operation will be met with any more than previous ones. That is, whether there will be a lot of critical talk directed at him, but only minimal real actions - and even those only temporarily.

However, it is hopeful that Navalny's murder would at least lead to a military awakening in Western countries and such extensive assistance to Ukraine, victimized by Putin, that Russian forces are forced to withdraw from the country.

Of course, it's difficult to extract much from the empty weapon arsenals of European states that have wasted their military capabilities until defense budgets are rectified. But if even the importance of the matter were understood in the U.S. House of Representatives before Ukrainians are forced to retreat from places other than Avdiivka?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Desperate cry of Russians
Victims of Russian leaders
Should Putin´s regime be overthrown by supporting Russian opposition?

Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security

The world is in a dire situation, as the upcoming president of the United States appears to be either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. The latter's signs of dementia have become increasingly apparent and have become a hot potato in the politics of the Western superpower, particularly with the so-called Hur report bluntly stating the matter.

Of course, Biden's supporters have launched a counterattack, assuring that the president's memory functions flawlessly and attempting to demonstrate that the report is politically motivated. However, it is clear that the doubt it brings will linger in people's minds, and any minor public slip-up by Biden will significantly affect the less fanatical part of his voters in the future.

However, this does not mean that Donald Trump is returning to the White House. Firstly, he needs support from the U.S. Supreme Court, and secondly, he must somehow convince his voter base throughout the entire election campaign that the undoubtedly fierce accusations of inciting rebellion during the previous elections by his opponent are untrue.

From the perspective of us Europeans, the problem lies in the difficulty of determining which option is better for us - the inherently unpredictable Trump or Biden, who seems physically elderly and appears to be suffering from dementia. And the situation is not improved by Trump's advance mention of his reluctance to unconditionally support Europe if Russia were to invade Ukraine and then shift its focus to another bordering country.

Regarding the latter, I was pleased to note that our future president, Alexander Stubb, understood Donald Trump to be "essentially right" in suggesting that Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While Finland's defense capability is in order, Russia's brutal aggressiveness ultimately cannot be restrained without significant support either from the United States or through a much greater investment in military capability by the major Western European countries - Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.

In that sense, the competition between the two elderly men in the United States for leadership of the country may ultimately awaken decision-makers on our continent and thereby enhance Europe's security. And in the best-case scenario, Biden may have to withdraw his candidacy and be replaced by a younger and hopefully capable alternative who can defeat Trump in the election and, while in office, even reduce the extreme internal division within the Western superpower.

The result could be a militarily strong Europe, supported by a security-conscious United States.

The original thought in Finnish:
Bidenin dementia ja Trumpin puheet saattavat parantaa Euroopan turvallisuutta

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Erdogan wants fighter jets, and uses Finland and Sweden to get them

Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

In Finland and the USA, presidential elections are taking place. We have two middle-aged men facing each other, both in good health, with no significant decline in mental and physical condition expected in the upcoming term. In this sense, things in Finland are quite exemplary.

It's a different story in the world's leading superpower. The Democratic candidate and the incumbent president, Joe Biden, was born in the midst of World War II in 1942, making him 82 this year and, if he were to serve another term, he would be 86 at its end. At times, there have been signs of both mental and physical deterioration in him.

Biden's likely opponent in the presidential election is the former president of the USA, Republican Donald Trump. He is slightly younger than Biden, also an older man. Thus, it is clear that the onset of old age symptoms is likely for him during a potential upcoming presidential term.

If the scenario unfolds in the U.S. elections where these two candidates are pitted against each other, there is a significant risk that the grip of the world's leading superpower on realpolitik weakens. In the worst-case scenario, power transfers to the vice president, but a president turning senile may hold onto power for an extended period.

This, in turn, implies that undemocratic forces gain more weight in global politics. This is especially true for the strongest among them, China, but Russia will undoubtedly seek to exploit such a situation as well, potentially even militarily.

Therefore, it would be excellent if Americans across party lines understood that their country needs a younger leader, one likely to remain functional throughout his term. This is particularly crucial now, as European leaders believed that world history ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and allowed their crisis response capabilities to deteriorate – capabilities they certainly won't be able to fix over the next four years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?
Leaders infected by a parasite

Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?

After the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia, people around the world have been pondering what the consequences will be. One manifestation of this is when US President Joe Biden stated during his visit to Canada that China has not yet delivered weapons to Russia. 

It remains to be seen whether this will happen at a later stage. However, it is most likely that Xi's administration will not take such a risk. Instead, it seeks to benefit from Russia by exporting Chinese products there to replace Western counterparts and importing underpriced Russian raw materials to China as their export to Western countries has collapsed.

I base my view on the fact that China would not gain much advantage by supporting the soon-to-be ousted dictator Vladimir Putin and exacerbating its strained relations with the West over the Taiwan issue. On the contrary, such an action could prove to be very costly for China. Moreover, the current Chinese leadership is not accustomed to taking significant risks in any matter, as demonstrated by its excessive caution in lifting coronavirus restrictions.

However, this does not mean that China could not act differently from what I imagine, as the failed coronavirus policy has shown that Xi's administration has made mistakes before. Therefore, Western countries should be prepared also for that possibility.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
China is betting on scientific excellence
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?

Ukrainian army should be equipped with the best possible weapons against missiles

This morning started with Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian towns including the capitol, Kyiv. According to a Finnish General and Ministerial Adviser for Intelligence "today we got to witness the work of the new commander of Russia's war of aggression, army general Sergei Surovikin, at what he does best: brutal missile terror against civilians.

After this day, it should have become crystal clear to everyone, that Vladimir Putin in not a brave President and leader of the Russian army, but a pitiful mass murderer and slimy coward. And as such, it has become imperative to turn his regime down. 

Unfortunately, Putin has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons that prevent direct attack against Russia and its regime. However, military forces of the brave Ukrainian army should be equipped with the best possible weapons to protect themselves against the terrorist´s missiles. 

I certainly hope that the President of the United States, Joe Biden, understands this and acts as soon as possible to make that happen. Rather today than tomorrow.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
War in Ukraine affects other countries
Putin is in a political and military impasse
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine