17 September 2022

The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine

Pax Russiana is cracking in Asia as shown by fights along the border of Kyrgyz and Tajik as well as between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers. The reason behind these fights - in addition to local disagreements - is probably the poor performance of Vladimir Putin´s army in Ukraine.

As Russia is obviously not able to respond to those minor fights, they will most probably continue, and similar cases will appear also in other areas of the former Soviet Union. Ultimately, all those will most probably reduce Russian influence around its neighborhood. 

At the same time, Vladimir Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to look for help to cope with western sanctions against his actions in Ukraine. Although President Xi Jinping of China was very polite, it was extremely clear which one of the two country leaders was the boss. 

It was also clear that Xi is not willing to risk China´s relationships with the West because of Putin´s adventure to Ukraine, especially as they already are tense due to Taiwan case. But at the same time, he looks for possibilities to take advantage on Putin´s distress - such as purchasing cheap oil from Russia. 

In my opinion, this all indicates that Putin with his "special operation" confirmed the lowering of Russia from a global great power to a second level nation among the ranking of countries. And underlines the position of China as the only rival of US hegemony in the world.

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