The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear

At the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the army of the old regime led by General Chiang Kai-shek retreated to the island of Taiwan. The communists led by the victor, Mao Zedong, did not pursue them, and thus a new poor island state came into being.

At first, Taiwan was unequivocally a developing country, into which large amounts of development aid still flowed in the 1960s. At the same time, it represented the whole of China in the United Nations — and even held a seat on the Security Council — until 1971, when the Taiwanese were expelled from the entire organization and Mao’s communist government took their place.

Over time, Taiwan transitioned to democracy and adopted a capitalist economic model. As a result, the country has become a small economic giant with a significant position in the electronics and engineering industries as well as in petrochemical products — and in semiconductor components it even holds a leading position worldwide.

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At the same time, with the support of the United States, the Taiwanese have armed themselves to the teeth. The reason for this is the threat posed by China, which continues to covet the island and which appears to be a more significant issue for U.S. President Donald Trump than the war in Ukraine.

For this reason, it was noteworthy that Member of the European Parliament and general Pekka Toveri predicted on social media that China would attack the island state in the near future. As a sign of this, he points to extensive purges carried out within China’s military leadership.

If Toveri is right, we will witness a clash between the two greatest military and economic powers of our time, in which the United States will side with Taiwan in a fight against Xi’s army. One can of course hope that this will not happen.

If it does, however, it is to be hoped that the confrontation would avoid the use of nuclear weapons and be limited to conventional warfare. This would certainly be the case at first — but would both sides refrain from nuclear weapons even if one of them were facing defeat?

For this reason, the Taiwan question is extremely important. So far, nuclear weapons have been used against people only at the end of the Second World War, but we do not know whether either Xi Jinping or Donald Trump would be willing to resort to them — if defeat were looming — in order to avoid losing face.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Taiwanin kysymys uuteen vaiheeseen?

Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump (Rep) won the election against his opponent Kamala Harris (Dem) and is now also the upcoming president. This offers Europe some food for thought.

In economic terms, Trump is expected to strongly advocate for the interests of American businesses and workers. This will likely manifest in the form of increased tariffs, making it harder for other countries to export their products to the U.S.

Europe – and other regions as well – will thus need to consider whether to respond with their own tariffs or simply criticize the Trump administration for its anti-free-trade stance. The former seems more likely, which could ultimately slow down global economic growth.

Trump is also expected to take a firm stance on the humanitarian migration flow from Mexico to the U.S.. This aligns with policies in some EU countries aiming for similar goals. However, it remains to be seen whether either will ultimately succeed in halting the flow of people from developing countries, driven by rapid population growth and a large standard-of-living gap with destination countries.

It is important to note here that, in the U.S., one must work to get by. In many European countries, on the other hand, it's been sufficient to collect social benefits and live off them comfortably.

In military terms, Trump’s overall stance is clear. He demands that NATO’s European members increase their defense spending, without which he won’t commit to guaranteeing their security in the same way the U.S. has done for decades.

Taiwan and Ukraine, of course, are special cases, and I haven’t quite grasped Trump’s stance on them. However, I assume he won’t leave Taiwan at China’s mercy, though Ukraine remains a bigger question mark.

My dear readers will undoubtedly recall that Trump promised to bring peace to Ukraine within a day. However, it’s unclear how he could even achieve that. Unless Trump issues Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to withdraw his forces from Ukraine or face the U.S. military.

Such an approach might indeed work, but in that case, there would be a risk that Russia’s cornered dictator would resort to nuclear weapons. And that would be disastrous for everyone in this world.

Be that as it may, Donald Trump is taking responsibility for U.S. policy, and others must accept that. For Finland’s part, President Alexander Stubb summed up the situation by stating that Finland will get along with the U.S. regardless of who leads the country. On this, I have no further comments.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Message From and To Vladimir Putin
Finland Will Thrive with Any US President, Trump Survived the Assassination Attempt
Trump is leaving Africa

 

Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams

Russia is hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. The host nation's president, Vladimir Putin indirectly acknowledged his secondary role by referring to China's president, Xi Jinping, as his dear friend.

According to Putin, cooperation between China and Russia is one of the most important factors in "balancing the world". This claim is, of course, at the very least, interesting given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s posturing toward Taiwan and Japan.

Putin also wanted to paint visions of the future, like something out of a sci-fi movie. He stated that "we will continue to work with China to establish a new fair world order." A sentence somewhat reminiscent of how Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini might have phrased things in the late 1930s.

The positive aspect, however, is that Putin does not have the power to reshape the world order. And China likely has no desire even for a trade war now, considering its own economic struggles. Sure, some other BRICS countries—like South Africa or Iran—might be willing to side with Putin, but they don't hold significant weight in the bigger picture.

In this situation, it's important that the major Western nations stay united, both after the U.S. presidential elections and as anti-immigration parties in Europe grow more influential with each election, while also avoiding unnecessary provocation of China despite staying tough. Only by doing so can we ensure that BRICS leaders don’t get any ideas about pursuing Putin’s foolish dreams. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Vladimir Putin is Leading Russia into an Economic Ruin
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat
Rising Trade Tensions Between the EU and China

The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin

Germany, led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, plans to halve its support for Ukraine in order to get its debt under control. In doing so, it will also end up supporting Vladimir Putin's dictatorially ruled Russia.

This is happening at a time when Ukraine has just demonstrated its ability to surprise the Russian army after receiving a large aid package from the United States. In other words, it has shown that with the support of Western countries, it can change the course of the war.

Arkady Moshes of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs mentioned that "it is visible that Ukraine's Western allies are steering Ukraine towards a ceasefire or peace," because "some Westerners are no longer worried that Ukraine's collapse would lead them into a risky situation."

This statement immediately brought to my mind British Foreign Minister Neville Chamberlain's 1938 declaration of "peace for our time," after he and his Western colleagues had forced Czechoslovakia to cede part of its territory to Adolf Hitler's Germany. "Our time" lasted less than a year back then.

Of course, Scholz is just a Social Democrat, and perhaps for that reason, we cannot expect much understanding from him. Or at least, his Finnish ideological counterpart Timo Harakka does not possess such understanding, as journalist Ulla Appelsin just reminded us.

The fact remains, however, that if Western countries allow Russia to benefit from its attack on Ukraine, not only will Putin take note of it, but so will many other rulers of undemocratic states. The most notable of these is China, which has an obsession with incorporating Taiwan, but also has ambitions in the vicinity of the Himalayan mountains.

By saying all this, I do not mean that the end of the war in Ukraine is not a good and important goal. Rather, I remind you that peace at any cost is not reasonable.

And European politicians should therefore avoid making Chamberlain-like mistakes and ensure that the democratic world does not allow the use of military force to redraw national borders—not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, and not at the borders of Finland or the Baltic States.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A gift from the free world to Ukraine

Mistreatment of Women at the Olympics?

The world seems to have gone completely crazy. I mean, in women's boxing at the Paris Olympics, there are two men: Imane Khelif and Lin Tu-Ting.

The International Boxing Association (IBA) held the World Championships of the sport in New Delhi, India, in March 2023. During the competition, Algerian Imane Khelif and Taiwan's Lin Yu-Ting were disqualified based on gender tests, but they are once again participating in the mistreatment of women.

Behind this, of course, is the international DEI movement, which has sought to blur the differences between biological sexes and mistakenly believed that hormone treatments for men would make them equal to women in sports like boxing. This is not the case, as boys' bodies develop in adolescence in ways that do not disappear even with hormone treatments.

Hopefully, Khelif and Yu-Ting will be sidelined from the Olympics or moved to the proper category, the men's division. This would by no means be chauvinism or against equality, but rather the protection of women and the defense of equality among people.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Impact of Diversity in Films
Women full of testosterone

Discrimination against women?

Joe Biden Must Step Aside, But Can a Suitable Candidate Be Found?

The fragile president of the USA, Joe Biden, failed completely in his recent debate but is still aiming for a second term. This would very likely mean that Donald Trump will return to lead the USA.

This is bad news for the entire world. However, it would also be bad if Biden continues in power, especially if he is as senile as he appeared during the debate.

This is because the world needs a competent leader for the flagship of democratic nations. One who can find ways to defeat Russia in Ukraine, ensure that China doesn't even consider attempting to conquer Taiwan, and keep Islamist extremists in check.

For this reason, I really hope that Biden will withdraw his candidacy. But that is not enough; a replacement candidate must also be found for the Democrats, someone who can guide the Western superpower’s economy to continue growing, take an interest in global politics, and ensure internal security in the USA.

It is unfortunately clear that the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, is not such a person, but could a competent replacement for Biden be found? Someone intelligent, competent, and capable.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Brianna Wu's advice and the reality of Finnish politics
Biden's dementia and Trump's speeches may improve European security
Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future

For over half a century, China has wanted to incorporate the independent island of Taiwan - which remained so after the civil war - into itself. However, it has been unable to do so because the militarily superior USA has declared that it will intervene in such an act.

Nevertheless, China has become increasingly strong economically and militarily over the decades, leading it to once again assert its claim to the island. These claims have been emphasized by military displays in the waters around Taiwan.

In a recent interview, Finnish expert on international politics Risto E.J. Penttilä said that he believes there will be some kind of military confrontation between the USA and China in the near future. This could mean, for example, a collision between two aircrafts or something similar.

However, it is clear that there are not yet the elements of a major war. Instead, it is clear that the USA and China are in a cold war with no end in sight. And we can only hope that it will not turn into a hot war at some point e.g. due to a human error.

If an actual war is avoided, the question arises as to when the cold war will end. In my own estimation, it will end if China is able to become militarily stronger than its rival, which would allow it to incorporate Taiwan into itself. If this does not happen - and the USA remains stronger - the cold war will eventually thaw as China declares that economic cooperation is more sensible than continuing the cold war due to a reluctant island nation.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan

The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine

Pax Russiana is cracking in Asia as shown by fights along the border of Kyrgyz and Tajik as well as between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers. The reason behind these fights - in addition to local disagreements - is probably the poor performance of Vladimir Putin´s army in Ukraine.

As Russia is obviously not able to respond to those minor fights, they will most probably continue, and similar cases will appear also in other areas of the former Soviet Union. Ultimately, all those will most probably reduce Russian influence around its neighborhood. 

At the same time, Vladimir Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to look for help to cope with western sanctions against his actions in Ukraine. Although President Xi Jinping of China was very polite, it was extremely clear which one of the two country leaders was the boss. 

It was also clear that Xi is not willing to risk China´s relationships with the West because of Putin´s adventure to Ukraine, especially as they already are tense due to Taiwan case. But at the same time, he looks for possibilities to take advantage on Putin´s distress - such as purchasing cheap oil from Russia. 

In my opinion, this all indicates that Putin with his "special operation" confirmed the lowering of Russia from a global great power to a second level nation among the ranking of countries. And underlines the position of China as the only rival of US hegemony in the world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Once upon a time in China and Taiwan
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?
Trump is leaving Africa

Once upon a time in China and Taiwan

Politics is sometimes amusing - or at least something similar to fairy tales. I noticed this once more when I was reading a news telling that a representative of Chinese officer has proposed that his air force would protect the sovereignty of Taiwan.

As we all know, Taiwan does not need Chinese protection but rather protection against Chinese themselves. Neither does it accept Chinese military in its area - and is supported by US air force, which still has a clear technological advantage against its Chinese competitor. 

The latter point cannot be overestimated as we have learned in Ukraine, where Russians have run into trouble after western countries have supported their victims with modern weaponry. Therefore the Chinese offer for protection is not a serious comment but... hrmh... an amusing fairy tale.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Pacifism - a respectable tool to support inhumane dictators and warlords
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?
Trump is leaving Africa