Donald Trump Has Unleashed a Dangerous Development

The Finnish Member of the European Parliament and General Pekka Toveri stated on social media that "it seems quite clear that the USA will no longer receive intelligence from the West except in a limited manner. It is not worth revealing one’s own sources to Putin’s henchman."

So, this is where we have arrived in just over a month of President Donald Trump’s presidency. There are still nearly three years and eleven months to go, so one must watch with considerable dread what will happen during that time to the unity of Western countries and their ability to resist Russian and Chinese efforts to expand their own power.

This was also noted by Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi, who stated that "it is becoming increasingly clear that the United States cannot be trusted, and the less interest the U.S. has in supporting other countries, the more its influence diminishes... This means that we have returned to the era of imperialism, where large, powerful nations believe they can divide the world among themselves. This is a dangerous development."

It remains to be seen what will happen in global politics in the coming years. At this point, the only certainty seems to be that the world will look very different a few years from now than it did just a month ago—and certainly not for the better, even if Europe manages to unite its efforts. Not to mention what happens if the continent's leaders fail to do so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Too Many Finns Share Trump’s Inability to Comprehend
Europe Needs Leadership and Urgent Defense Actions
Political Rhetoric Like Trump-Zelenskyi’s Has Deep Historical Roots

General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine

I have occasionally written about the Finnish General Pekka Toveri (example, another), who was elected as a Member of the European Parliament in the last elections. That’s why it was interesting to notice that he has now become the chair of a the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine. 

The delegations of the European Parliament are its official representatives, and they are part of its foreign relations. The task of these delegations is to maintain and develop relations with non-EU countries and international institutions.

After being elected, Toveri informed Finns that "the planning of the delegation's work program has already begun, and I am optimistic that we will achieve important things. The agenda will include, for example, discussions on sanctions and the EU's role in peace negotiations. At some point, the delegation will also begin assessing what needs to be done for Ukraine’s EU membership, but our most important task at the moment is to focus on how the EU can help Ukraine win the war."

This is a good starting point. The Finnish general undoubtedly has much to offer to the Ukrainians as they fight their war, as well as to European decision-makers who are willing to help a pro-European state that has become a target of Russia's aggression.

However, it remains to be seen how interested EU leaders ultimately are in helping Ukraine achieve victory. And whether they can cooperate effectively to ensure the failure of Vladimir Putin's imperialist plans.

One can only hope this will happen because Putin won’t stop at Ukraine if he can interpret the war as a victory. If that were to happen, the next to suffer would likely be another one of Russia’s neighboring states, and the game wouldn’t end until the Western countries finally decided to put a stop to it by presenting a strong enough counterforce to Putin’s army. That’s why it’s better to do this now in Ukraine rather than later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Russia Test NATO's Article Five?
Finland and Western Europe: Effectively at War
The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Will Russia Test NATO's Article Five?

Member of the European Parliament, General Pekka Toveri, has considered the possibility in his latest blog post that Vladimir Putin might test NATO's reaction to an attack limited to one of its smaller member states.

In his writing, he called this possibility the "Narva scenario," where the Russian army would cross a border under some pretext - similar to the Mainila shots that started the Winter War with Finland - for example in the Estonian border, and threaten to use nuclear weapons if the Western military alliance acted according to Article Five to defend its member state.

In such a case, NATO would have two options. According to the first, "Washington, Paris, Berlin, and London would start shaking, thinking they can't go to nuclear war for the sake of one and a half million Estonians. This would be a huge victory for Putin, and the entire NATO would crumble."

The second - and much more likely - option would be that NATO would act according to Article Five and destroy the Russian attacking forces. In this case, Putin's bluff would be exposed - and he would not use a nuclear weapon. 

According to Toveri, "Putin might lose a couple of thousand soldiers, but so what? Over a hundred thousand have already been killed in Ukraine. It would not affect his power. The gains are so great that the risk is worth it."

Toveri's thought experiment is frightening because the Narva scenario puts every Russian-bordering NATO country at risk. Though Finland, due to its strong army, is unlikely to be targeted, the risk is real for the Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Therefore, it would be important for NATO to show the Russian dictator already in Ukraine that it is not to be trifled with. And finally ensure that Ukrainians receive the weapons they need and the right to use them, so that the Russian military is unequivocally defeated in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Finland and Western Europe: Effectively at War
The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Finland and Western Europe: Effectively at War

In Finland, an interesting discussion has emerged about our current relationship with Russia. MEP and General Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party) claimed that Finland and other Western European countries are already effectively at war with Vladimir Putin's dictatorship.

He did not, of course, mean a war fought with firearms, but rather that Russia is directing all kinds of aggressive actions against Finland and other Western countries. According to Toveri, "Russia is extensively planning, preparing, and executing sabotage across Europe. For example, weapons depots have been blown up, assassinations carried out, cables cut, and there is ongoing information warfare and cyberattacks. Additionally, the West is threatened with nuclear weapons, the refugee weapon is used, GPS interference is conducted, and so on."

This was picked up by MP Pinja Perholehto (Social Democratic Party), who either pretended not to understand—or worse yet—genuinely did not grasp the matter. She therefore asked on social media, "If we are indeed at war, why don't the President and the Council of State declare a state of emergency under the Emergency Powers Act and enable authorities to act accordingly?"

In the ensuing discussion, Toveri stated that "Russia specifically aims to operate below the threshold of the Emergency Powers Act, making it as difficult as possible to counter their actions," and thus advised, "do not think of war in the old-fashioned way as only kinetic troop warfare. The Russians do not think so either."

Perholehto's comment demonstrated that Putin's Russia has achieved some level of success in its actions. Despite the fact that most of the public understands his actions and intentions, there is complete incomprehension—or at least a desire to score political points from the threat to our country—on the left side of the political spectrum.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Putin's useful idiots in Finland
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Finnish general, member of parliament, and MEP Pekka Toveri (National Coalition Party) called the UK's Nigel Farage (Reform UK) the most effective Russian agent of the island nation. According to him, Farage has succeeded in undermining, among other things, the economy, healthcare, and domestic political decision-making of the former European military power.

Toveri was apparently motivated by Farage's blunder, in which he claimed that the EU and NATO provoked Putin into attacking Ukraine. With this opinion, Farage placed himself in the same group as individuals like Viktor Orbán or Alexander Lukashenko, who are completely uncritical in their relationship with Vladimir Putin's dictatorship.

However, the difference between Orbán and Lukashenko on one hand, and Farage on the other, is that they use Putin to stay in power in their own countries. Farage, on the other hand, is unable to gain power even with his help. Not now, and not in the future.

This does not mean that Farage does not have significant influence in British politics. If he manages to attract enough conservatives to his side, it will ensure a victory for the Labour Party in the island nation with all its consequences, and a loss for the Tories.

It remains to be seen how Farage and his party will succeed in attracting votes. And at the same time, whether a harsh electoral defeat will lead the Conservatives to consider moving the UK towards a proportional voting system, whereby the mandate received from voters would be more evenly distributed among the various parties.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's useful idiots in Finland
A white family does not represent real Londoners
Finnish journalist called for British Prime Minister´s head to be placed on London bridge to dry