Military Superiority Does Not Guarantee Victory

Nobody cares if a dog bites a man. Consequently, such incidents are not reported in the news, and they certainly do not make headline stories.

It is a different matter if a man bites a dog. That is unexpected and therefore the kind of event that makes headlines.

* * *

This came to mind when virtually all major Finnish media outlets (example, another) reported that Iran's armed forces had succeeded in killing two and wounding four American soldiers. The last time Iran managed to kill an enemy combatant was last March, and over the course of the current war it has reportedly killed a total of fifteen American soldiers.

According to Wikipedia, the Iranians have meanwhile lost 1,221 soldiers. That means the cost of one American soldier amounts to roughly 81 Iranian soldiers. In other words, one American is worth more than eighty Persian Muslims.

This figure can be compared, for example, with the Winter War, during which about five Red Army soldiers were killed or wounded for every Finnish soldier lost. This suggests that the Americans have been about sixteen times more militarily effective against the Iranians this year than the Finns were against the Soviets during the Winter War.

* * *

The essential question, however, is this: if the Finns' fivefold superiority was enough to halt the Red Army's offensive, will the Americans' superiority—sixteen times greater than that achieved by the Finns in the Winter War, amounting to an overall advantage of more than eighty to one—be sufficient to defeat the Iranians?

At the moment, it does not appear so, although the Americans have naturally launched retaliatory strikes in response to these events.

Such strikes, however, do not win wars, nor do they apparently succeed in toppling governments. That would require the deployment of ground forces, which would also mean a substantial increase in American military casualties.

Even President Donald Trump is unlikely to be willing to take that step, as he too remembers the war in Afghanistan, in which 2,328 U.S. soldiers lost their lives. That conflict ended, under pressure from the home front, in the defeat of the Americans—and the Europeans who had supported them.

* * *

Based on the above, it is likely that Trump's war against the Iranians will end in a humiliating defeat for the United States. The greatest victims will be ordinary Iranians, who had hoped to see their government—one guided by medieval values—overthrown. And, of course, people around the world will also suffer if the Strait of Hormuz effectively becomes a trade route controlled by Iran, with transit requiring the payment of tariffs or tolls.

Another significant consequence is that Iranian resistance has demonstrated that American military power may be less formidable than previously believed. This is something that has undoubtedly been noticed in Beijing, which has its own strategic interests in East Asia. For that reason, Taiwan in particular—but Japan as well—has good reason to prepare for the growing assertiveness of Chinese imperial ambitions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Who Really Rules Iran?
Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia

The European Union has finally awakened to the fact that many Ukrainian men are using its refugee policy as a means of avoiding military service. For this reason, the Commission has proposed—according to the Finnish media—that Ukrainian men of military age should no longer be granted temporary protection in the EU.

One can only hope that the proposal will be processed by the EU's bureaucratic apparatus more quickly than, for example, the proposal to abolish changing the clocks. As a result, Ukraine's manpower shortage could be alleviated at a time when the military situation is otherwise turning so favorable for the Ukrainians that even Russian soldiers reportedly admit they are exhausted and wish to warn Putin of a possible "major catastrophe" ahead.

* * *

The emergence of Russian soldiers speaking out, along with the reactions of Crimeans to Ukrainian successes, suggests that the Moscow government has kept its citizens in an information blackout regarding the problems facing the "special military operation." This brings to mind the year 1940, when Finnish censorship ensured that the public had an overly optimistic view of the situation in the Winter War, and as a result, people experienced the outcome of the war as even more unjust than it actually was.

The same problem now confronts Vladimir Putin and his administration. It is genuinely difficult for them to explain to their subjects why the Ukrainians are capable of destroying Russian infrastructure to such an extent that ordinary people no longer even have fuel for their cars.

If and when a rebellious spirit continues to spread among Russian soldiers, the government will face an acute crisis that will further undermine the operational capabilities of the country's military, and consequently weaken its military performance even beyond its current state.

* * *

All of this could have a truly dramatic impact on the ability of Putin's administration to function. At the moment, it seems to be protected by little more than the absence of a credible opposition—a factor that also makes Russia's future difficult to predict.

Consequently, the final outcome of Putin's special military operation could be anything from a palace coup to complete anarchy and even the disintegration of the Russian state. Of course, the first of these scenarios is the most likely, but then again, hardly anyone at the beginning of 1917 predicted that the Bolsheviks would overthrow and murder the Russian Tsar and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As we all know, its success has not been what President Vladimir Putin and his generals had hoped for.

Finnish news media MTV3 published a news report according to which the intelligence service GCHQ has estimated that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine during the past four-plus years, or roughly 50 months. This means that the Russians have lost an average of nearly 9,800 soldiers per month.

* * *

In Finland, the miracle of the Winter War is still remembered. That war lasted about 3.5 months, and therefore it is interesting to compare Russian losses in Ukraine with the casualties suffered by the Red Army during the winter of 1939–40.

According to Russian sources cited by Wikipedia, either 126,875 or 167,976 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing during that conflict. These figures amount to approximately 36,000 or 48,000 killed or missing per month.

From this, one may conclude that the Finns who resolutely defended themselves during the Winter War were about 3.6 or 4.8 times more effective than present-day Ukrainians in their fight against an invasion directed from Moscow. This is despite the fact that Ukrainians in the current war have killed roughly 2.5 times as many Russian soldiers as they themselves have lost.

* * *

Of course, my text above may be criticized on the grounds that the Winter War was exceptional in rallying almost all Finns unanimously to defend our country. Therefore, it is useful to calculate the same comparison figures for the Continuation War, that is, the years 1941–44.

According to Wikipedia, during those 39 months approximately 63,204 Finnish soldiers and 201,000 Russian soldiers were killed. After doing the calculations, we see that the Finns managed to kill “only” a little over 5,000 Red Army soldiers per month. The explanation is probably the long trench warfare phase associated with that war, during which the fighting consisted mainly of minor skirmishes.

* * *

Therefore, it is also useful to calculate comparison figures for present-day Ukrainians as well as for the Finns of the Winter War and the Continuation War by dividing the scale of their own losses by the number of dead Russian/Red Army soldiers. For this, we first need the figures for their own casualties: according to Wikipedia articles, these were just under 200,000 in Ukraine, about 26,000 in the Winter War, and slightly over 63,000 in the Continuation War.

When we divide the Muscovites’ casualty figures by those of the Ukrainians or Finns, we arrive at the following comparison ratios. In the war in Ukraine, about 2.5 Russians have died for every fallen Ukrainian. In the Winter War, by contrast, about 5–6.5 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing for every dead Finn, while in the Continuation War the figure was about 3.2.

* * *

From these figures we can see that the Winter War differs fundamentally from the other two wars under discussion. This suggests that the spirit of the Winter War not only encouraged Finnish soldiers to engage in determined resistance, but also significantly increased their effectiveness compared with the less motivated Finnish army of the Continuation War.

Therefore, it is worth asking — assuming that Russians and Ukrainians are, as fighters, roughly equal to begin with — whether the substantially higher casualties suffered by Putin’s army in the current war can be explained by the low motivation level of its soldiers. And is this phenomenon creating a Ukrainian equivalent of the spirit and miracle of the Winter War: a “spirit of the special military operation” and a “miracle of the special military operation”?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
The Outbreak of the Continuation War Between Finland and the Soviet Union

Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

* * *

However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

* * *

This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Venezuela, Antonio Guterres and the Nature of Great Powers

The United States removed Venezuela’s socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro from power and transported him to the United States to await trial. There, the deposed tyrant will be charged, among other things, with narco-terrorism and the possession of machine guns and other weapons of destruction against the United States.

In Venezuela, power was transferred to Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and there are reportedly no longer any American soldiers in the country. Hopefully, the country’s new leader understands the situation and moves swiftly to arrange honest elections.

In those elections, whoever the majority of the Venezuelan people express their support for should win. And whether that is last year’s Nobel Prize winner María Corina Machado or someone else, may that person receive American support in restoring the country to democratic governance, rebuilding its economy on market-based principles, and orienting its foreign policy toward Western democracies instead of China.

Under Maduro, however, Venezuela has accumulated many serious problems. These include an economic collapse over the course of the 21st century, increased drug-related crime, and now—after the operation just carried out—possible claims by Trump on the country’s oil reserves. For Venezuelans, it is therefore crucial to find solutions to all of these issues that are effective and that enjoy public support.

* * *

In this context, it is worth noting the incomprehensible reaction of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to the events. Instead of expressing satisfaction at the fall of a dictator, he saw fit to be deeply concerned about the U.S. strike on Venezuela, because it does not respect international law.

Did this creep placed at the head of the world organization really imagine that Maduro’s regime did?

The silver lining is that the UN has no real means to influence the Venezuelan case, nor does there appear to be support in Western countries for Guterres’s absurd “concern” or for Maduro’s regime. And even if there were, Donald Trump would hardly care about it any more than about the shit-flies tormenting cattle on American ranches.

All in all, the future of Venezuelans looks—despite Guterres—reasonably bright, at least compared to a few days ago. Of course, dismantling the misery caused by a long-standing socialist dictatorship will take time, but with determined effort the people can get what they deserve.

For now, however, we do not know what that will mean. And so we can only wait to see what the Venezuelans themselves want—once the Trump administration first restores to them the right to decide on their own affairs.

* * *

Finally, it should be noted that some have viewed the transfer of power in Venezuela as some kind of grand conspiracy in which the United States, China, and Russia seek to divide the world among themselves. 

I do admit that in this case certain features of such a scenario can be discerned, but there is nothing fundamentally new about it. Great powers have always sought to maximize their influence—sometimes more openly and sometimes more covertly, but always using the means they have considered most effective at the time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Elections in Venezuela Do Not Offer Reason for Optimism
Does China prove the superiority of market economy?
Lessons from Venezuela

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Maduron kausi loppu, eikä sen perään jäänyt haikailemaan kuin YK:n Antonio Guterrez

Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Financial Times published a report on Ukrainian soldiers deserting the front. According to it, as many as 60,000 charges have been filed this year alone against soldiers who have abandoned their posts.

For this reason, I would like to remind you – my esteemed readers – that Finns faced similar problems in 1944. However, they were resolved swiftly and effectively, which demonstrates that desertion can be brought under control quite quickly – if there is the will to do so. Undoubtedly, this applies to Ukraine as well.

* * *

During the Winter War, Finnish soldiers held their positions admirably, and morale remained high. But when the Karelian Isthmus front collapsed in 1944 under the pressure of the Soviet Union’s massive offensive, many Finnish soldiers also abandoned their posts. As a result, it was estimated in June 1944 that around 30,000 soldiers had gone missing from their units – some lost, but many deliberately fleeing.

This led Parliament to enact a law strengthening the military penal code, allowing for the death penalty for “cowardice in battle,” that is, desertion. This resulted in summary judgments by field courts and, in some cases, officers taking justice into their own hands. Consequently, roughly fifty Finnish deserters and war resisters met their end at the hands of their own countrymen.

* * *

These events have later been condemned with the infallible morality of hindsight – or, as Veikko Huovinen put it, with the “sweetest and most self-satisfied kind of wisdom.” The fact remains, however, that it was precisely those summary punishments – and the word of them spreading rapidly through the ranks – that brought desertion among Finnish soldiers under control.

Thus, swift and sufficiently firm action against desertion made possible, among other things, the defensive victory at Tali–Ihantala – the so-called Miracle of Ihantala, which stopped the Red Army’s great offensive and saved Finland’s independence. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?
Why Did Finland Remain an Independent Democracy After World War II?
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Ukrainalainen ja suomalainen rintamakarkuruus

Ukraine’s Missiles and Russia’s Forced Recruitment Set to Topple Putin’s Regime

According to media reports, Ukrainians have developed a cruise missile, "Flamingo", with a warhead weighing as much as one thousand kilograms and the capability to strike targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. If the information is correct, this weapon could destroy key parts of Russia’s arms industry and/or critical facilities that bring money to the war chest, such as oil refineries.

Reports claim that these missiles are already in production, with one being manufactured per day. That is not enough to work wonders yet, but within a couple of months, according to Ukrainians, they will be able to produce dozens per week.

Ukraine has also had time to test these missiles in practice, though no details about the results have been released. However, it is clear that the most important question in this regard concerns how effectively Russian air defense can defend potential targets—meaning whether it can shoot the missiles down as they travel through Russian airspace toward their objectives.

Still, one can hope that at least some of the missiles will get through and significantly reduce Russia’s ability to replace the weaponry it is constantly losing in Ukraine. In that way, the frontline situation could finally shift clearly in Ukraine’s favor.

* * *

In addition to Ukraine’s new missile, Russia faces another problem: the continuous decline in volunteers willing to go fight in Ukraine.

As a result, Vladimir Putin’s regime has apparently resorted to illegal methods to obtain soldiers to fight on its behalf. One example is 18-year-old Said Murtazaliev, who lived in southern Russia and dreamed of becoming a doctor.

In January 2025, before his final year of high school, he traveled to Moscow to spend a relaxing winter holiday. Instead, Murtazaliev disappeared without his family being able to reach him.

A few days later, however, his mother received a call from the police. During the call, a young woman told her that the boy had been detained in Moscow for some kind of minor fraud.

According to the police, the boy had signed a contract with the army and left to fight in Ukraine. Later, Said told his mother that he had been subjected to brutal torture by police in Moscow, and that he was released only after agreeing to go to Ukraine.

* * *

This and many other similar cases show that Putin’s regime has run out of legal means to get men to die in Ukraine. For this reason, he has intensified the conscription of young men into military service.

To that end, an electronic draft system has been developed. A summons sent through it is valid regardless of whether the conscript has seen it. According to Russian law, however, conscripts may not be sent to fight in Ukraine, since the country is not officially at war there, but only conducting a “special military operation.”

For this reason, many conscripts also fall victim to the same kind of violent coercion in recruitment as that experienced by Said Murtazaliev. To escape it, they are forced to sign a contract agreeing to go to Ukraine.

All in all, it is clear that actions like those described above are gradually leading to growing dissatisfaction with Putin and his regime. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will ultimately lead to an uprising and for Moscow’s current ruler to share the fate of Tsar Nicholas II. In my opinion, that would be more than desirable. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The War in Ukraine Came Close to Me
Oily Trap for Putin
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

Russian Soldier Acknowledges War Crimes in Ukraine on National TV

War has always been a brutal game, inflicting suffering especially on the defeated side. For example, during the Thirty Years' War, it was common practice that the victorious party was allowed to plunder a conquered city for three days.

Such looting, often accompanied by rape and violence, was considered the victor's right. However, in the modern era, this kind of behavior is unequivocally prohibited under international law.

That is why it was shocking to read that Russian soldier Dugar Zhamnjanov admitted on the Russian television news channel Rossiya 1 that he had mutilated captured Ukrainian soldiers, voluntary fighters and civilians by cutting off the index fingers on both of their hands.

Of course, it has already been widely known that Russian forces have mutilated, tortured, beaten, and executed Ukrainian soldiers and civilians both in Ukraine and elsewhere. But the fact that someone would publicly admit to committing war crimes on television, showing their face and stating their name, reveals that the army, state, and leadership he serves do not take war crimes seriously at all.

For this reason—and many others—it is of utmost importance that Western democracies, which uphold the rule of law, ensure that such a morally bankrupt state—and especially its leadership—never gets to enjoy victory in the war against Ukraine. On the contrary, the war must end with justice prevailing.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Downing of the Azerbaijani Plane Is a War Crime That Must Be Condemned
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
Ukraine can and will stop Putin

When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Russian tourism authorities have reported that at least 350 flights have been delayed or canceled due to last night's drone attacks by Ukraine. According to them, this has affected around 60,000 passengers, meaning that Putin’s subordinates have now personally experienced what it's like to live under a dictator waging a senseless war.

This is, of course, a good thing, as public support for Putin’s so-called special operation might once again drop a little. However, it’s futile to imagine that the opinions of the Russian people would have any more influence on their president than those of citizens under other global dictators.

That’s why it’s interesting to read that U.S. President Donald Trump has speculated that Putin might be enticed into peace by offering Russia a chance to participate in the next FIFA World Cup. However, such speculation is likely already too late, as the qualification rounds are underway, and Russia can no longer make it to the tournament.

Nevertheless, the idea that major sporting events could be used to pressure Putin into peace is intriguing. The thought is almost delightful—if only it were that easy.

Unfortunately, I have to remain somewhat skeptical here as well. Peace would mean that at least hundreds of thousands of brutalized men would return home from the Ukrainian front, many of whom would undoubtedly struggle to reintegrate into normal civilian life.

As a result, these soldiers could generate tensions within Russian society, which in the worst case could escalate and even lead to questioning Putin’s position. I don’t believe for a second that Putin fails to understand this—nor do I think he would be willing to take such a risk.

The fact is that, for a dictator, it's safer to wage even an eternal war—as long as it doesn’t end in defeat and doesn’t overly affect the daily lives of ordinary Muscovites or St. Petersburg residents. Which, incidentally, Ukraine’s recent drone strikes against Moscow might well begin to do.

And it’s certainly not insignificant that Ukrainian drones might very well spoil the mood of the dictator’s upcoming holiday celebrations. This could happen even if Zelensky’s army voluntarily refrains from sending a single drone to annoy the Russians on Friday, out of respect for the end of World War II.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Trump Speaks from Putin’s Pocket – A Perilous Shift in the Ukraine War

Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia

The war in Ukraine has had many different consequences. However, not many people have considered that one of them is the rapid growth of the wolf population in the Murmansk region, which has led to an exceptionally large number of these dog-like predators crossing the border into Finland.

Wolves are also being spotted on the Russian side of the Kola Peninsula in places where they have never been seen before. And this is not a one-time occurrence, as Russia’s wolf population has grown significantly during previous wars as well.

According to Finnish large carnivore researcher Ilpo Kojola, the explanation for the increase in wolves is that military personnel have played—and still play—a significant role in regulating Russia’s wolf population. And they are not dealing with the wolves when they have been transferred elsewhere to kill people.

So, could it be said that a community has now been found whose members would surely express—if they knew how to speak or write, say, on social media—their satisfaction with Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine? And who would support the continuation of the war forever, until the very last Russian soldier?

* * *

Today we also heard the news that Chinese soldiers have been fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces. It remains to be seen whether China will acknowledge this.

Similarly, it remains to be seen whether Donald Trump will ultimately dare to declare to Russia that the United States will support Ukraine as much as necessary — until the very last Russian soldier is either dead or has left Ukrainian soil. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
President of Finland Asked Whether There Are Top Politicians With Serious Intellectual Limitations
Wolfs affect nature conservation
Leaders infected by a parasite

Donald Trump Has Unleashed a Dangerous Development

The Finnish Member of the European Parliament and General Pekka Toveri stated on social media that "it seems quite clear that the USA will no longer receive intelligence from the West except in a limited manner. It is not worth revealing one’s own sources to Putin’s henchman."

So, this is where we have arrived in just over a month of President Donald Trump’s presidency. There are still nearly three years and eleven months to go, so one must watch with considerable dread what will happen during that time to the unity of Western countries and their ability to resist Russian and Chinese efforts to expand their own power.

This was also noted by Swedish Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi, who stated that "it is becoming increasingly clear that the United States cannot be trusted, and the less interest the U.S. has in supporting other countries, the more its influence diminishes... This means that we have returned to the era of imperialism, where large, powerful nations believe they can divide the world among themselves. This is a dangerous development."

It remains to be seen what will happen in global politics in the coming years. At this point, the only certainty seems to be that the world will look very different a few years from now than it did just a month ago—and certainly not for the better, even if Europe manages to unite its efforts. Not to mention what happens if the continent's leaders fail to do so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Too Many Finns Share Trump’s Inability to Comprehend
Europe Needs Leadership and Urgent Defense Actions
Political Rhetoric Like Trump-Zelenskyi’s Has Deep Historical Roots

Russia to Triple Its Military Presence on Finland’s Border

According to a report by Finnish military intelligence, Russia is set to triple the number of its troops stationed near Finland’s borders after the war in Ukraine ends. It is doing so because Putin’s military prioritizes its northwestern direction – essentially the area near Finland – highly in its strategic considerations.

The military intelligence assessment suggests that the number of Russian troops in the region will increase from around 30,000 combatants to an estimated 80,000 soldiers. At the same time, Russia’s behavior is “likely to become increasingly unpredictable” as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has severed Russia’s ties with the global economy.

As a result of all this, the border region between Finland and Russia will become “tense.” Naturally, this poses a significant challenge – and risk – to Finnish society as a whole and its independence.

For this reason, it is good that Finland’s Defense Forces have been working to integrate into NATO as quickly as possible, enabling Finland to rely on NATO’s support when necessary and to fully utilize its resources. It would also be beneficial if this were understood in Russia so that they would refrain from any aggression along their northwestern border.

This would also be in Russia’s own interest, as it is clear that its army would face significant challenges in an attack on Finland, especially given the difficulties it has already faced in Ukraine. Finland’s military is far better equipped than Ukraine’s, the size of its reserves is exceptionally high due to compulsory military service, the Finnish people’s will to defend their country is the highest in the world, and all of this is backed by the United States-led world’s strongest military alliance.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?
Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability

It Is Time for Vladimir Putin to Acknowledge the Facts and Do Dmitry Medvedev a Favor

Ukraine carried out its first strike on Russia using ATACMS missiles. The attack targeted facilities of the Main Directorate of Missiles and Artillery of the Russian Ministry of Defense located in the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region.

As noted by the Finnish Minister of Defense, the use of the missiles confirmed that Russian threats of nuclear war have lost their effectiveness. And showed that Western countries can continue to support Ukrainians even more extensively and with more effective means.

Thus, Russia finds itself in a position where it must consider its response to what has happened. Therefore I will offer them—and particularly Vladimir Putin—a free piece of advice: now is the time to acknowledge the facts, recognize Ukraine’s legitimate borders, and withdraw the military from Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula.

The strike demonstrated that Western countries will not abandon Ukraine in the future either, meaning Russia has practically no chance of winning the war. And the only reason left to continue it would be the senseless sacrifice of Russian soldiers.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Dmitry Medvedev has once again made irresponsible threats involving nuclear weapons. He seems like a pleasant enough man, but is clearly not in his right mind. Therefore, I ask you, Comrade Putin, to do him a favor and arrange for him to receive appropriate care.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Is Putin's Administration Rational?
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
Russians are, Intellectually, Spiritually, and Morally, a Deficient People

 

All Russians Should Be Informed of the Staggering Losses of Putin’s Army in Ukraine

Based on open data, the BBC, together with the publication Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has identified the names of 78,329 Russian soldiers who have died in Ukraine over the past two years. The growth rate of confirmed deaths is currently at its highest since the beginning of the war. The figures for September, October, and November exceed those of last year by one and a half times, and the 2022 figures by more than double.

The increase in losses may result from offensive operations by Russian forces in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, such as the assault on Vuhledar, which was captured by early October, and the assault on Pokrovsk, where fighting on the outskirts continues.

Other possible reasons include the gradual confirmation of Russian losses in Russia’s Kursk region or the aftermath of the summer offensive campaign. The rise in reports of fatalities could also be due to a combination of these factors.

The highest number of losses is among volunteers—those who signed contracts after the full-scale invasion began. Their share of total confirmed losses continues to grow, with confirmed deaths of 16,551 volunteers, accounting for 23% of the total confirmed Russian losses.

In addition to fatalities, many Russians have also been injured. Including these, the total losses for the aggressor rise to approximately 720,000 soldiers.

These figures can be compared to Soviet troop losses in Finland’s Winter War (November 30, 1939 – March 13, 1940), often likened to the war in Ukraine. In that conflict, as many as 126,875 Soviet soldiers were killed, with total losses—including the wounded—reaching around 350,000 soldiers in just 4.5 months. This means that current Russian losses have surpassed the staggering toll seen at that time. 

It would be valuable for all Russians to receive and understand this message, as it might reduce the appeal of the large rewards promised by Putin's administration to people living in Russia. This could weaken the country’s military capability in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization

Russia has advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk region and may achieve a breakthrough there. However, former Finnish Defense Forces Commander and current Member of Parliament Jarmo Lindberg (National Coalition Party) reminded us that the front line is long and not immediately collapsing.

According to Lindberg, the Kursk region might become a burden for Ukraine as it ties down troops away from other areas of the front. Additionally, "North Korean fighters have reportedly joined the battles in the Kursk region."

Therefore, it remains to be seen what will happen in the war in Ukraine during the coming winter. However, it is important to note that it does not solely depend on the warring parties but also on what Western countries do to help the Ukrainians—or whether they do anything at all.

* * *

The Finnish Officers’ Union conducted a survey among professional soldiers on the war in Ukraine. According to the results, 67% of respondents considered Finland's support sufficient, while 28% would even support increasing military aid. One respondent suggested giving Ukraine Finland's soon-to-be-retired F-18 Hornet jets—but this would require extensive maintenance costing tens of millions of euros, as the jets will be fully decommissioned in the coming years.

One of the survey respondents summarized most Finns' perception of the war, saying, "Europe is being defended in Ukraine. Finland is the only European country prepared for large-scale warfare. The longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the longer it delays Russia’s resurgence… Ukraine’s success against Russia is an existential issue for Finland’s security."

Many professional soldiers also emphasized that donations should not compromise Finland's own defense capabilities. One noted, "Finland has provided outsized assistance to Ukraine, considering we are a frontline country relative to Russia."

Furthermore, 91% of Finnish soldiers agreed, at least to some extent, that Ukraine should be allowed to use long-range Western weapons to target sites deep within Russia. They do not understand why Ukraine must fight by different rules due to political caution.

One respondent questioned, "Russia constantly commits war crimes by destroying civilian targets. Ukraine is not even allowed to strike military targets." Another remarked, "Russia uses foreign weapons against Ukraine in the same way. Russia cannot be countered with one hand tied behind Ukraine's back."

* * *

These views should ideally be shared in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has opposed Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Scholz also displayed an embarrassing lack of understanding of Finland’s post-World War II position.

Scholz has stated that "Ukraine should adopt a ‘neutral’ position, as Finland did for decades." My homeland Finland was indeed forced into official neutrality after World War II, but it retained a Western societal structure and prepared as best it could for a possible war against the Soviet Union.

The so-called friendship between Finland and the Soviet Union was a grand theater, which did not shy away from suppressing freedom of speech or smearing rivals in internal politics. This was obvious to me, even as a teenager.

Also, the falsehood of Finland’s neutrality was clear to me decades ago while doing military service in my 20s, during which it was evident that the skills we were learning were meant to counter a potential attack by the Eastern superpower. Never—not even once—did it occur to us that Western countries could pose a threat to Finland.

Unfortunately, starting in the mid-1950s, Finnish politicians rose to power who played the so-called "Moscow card" to exploit Finland’s vulnerable position for personal and party advantage in domestic politics. The most well-known was President Kekkonen, who remained in power for 25 years with Soviet support, only stepping down after becoming completely senile.

So I expect that Germans, too, will help Ukraine in its fight for independence. If they don’t, I consider them cowards. Furthermore, Chancellor Scholz himself should ensure that he understands what he’s talking about before making foolish statements.

Finally, it would be great if this text somehow ended up being read by as many Germans as possible.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine

The Game is Getting Tougher

Mass immigration to the European Union has taken on a new dimension at the border between Greece and Turkey. The Finnish Broadcasting Company Yle reported that a Greek border guard was hit by a bullet fired from the Turkish side. The shooter is suspected to be a smuggler profiting from people from developing countries.

It is absolutely clear that shooting at border guards cannot be tolerated at any level, whether done by a smuggler or those being smuggled. Nor is it in line with any human rights agreements.

It remains to be seen how the EU will react to this incident. Will it be ignored, as are other crimes (example) committed by immigrants in Union territories, or will the mass migration from developing countries finally be treated as a serious threat to the whole of European culture?

Russians, on the other hand, have realized that fighting in Ukraine is not without risks to the home front. According to a Meduza news story, those returning from the war have committed various crimes. This is especially true for those who have previously engaged in criminal activity and joined the army as volunteers to escape prison.

According to the report, the Kremlin even believes that returning soldiers from Ukraine pose the greatest political and social risk factor during Vladimir Putin's reign. Of course, it would be great if this ultimately led to the fall of the aforementioned dictator and Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine.

However, I doubt that the Russians are capable of rising against Putin's regime. After all, they have become accustomed over hundreds of years to their leaders not caring about the well-being of the people, but only about enhancing their own reputation and wealth.

Despite everything, the news mentioned above indicates that the situation is intensifying regarding both immigration from developing countries to Europe and Russia's so-called special operation. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the future of our continent.

This issue is also of great significance for Finland, as it is, like Ukraine, a neighbor of Russia, and Vladimir Putin has conducted hybrid operations against it using people from developing countries as weapons. In the best-case scenario, Russians will be frightened by the consequences of their war on the home front and will end all hybrid operations on Finland's borders.

On the other hand, it is also possible that instead of using reason, Russians might apply the criminal activities seen at the Greek-Turkish border, endangering the safety of Finnish border guards. This too must be anticipated in the training of border guards.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Defending National Security: Finland's Response to Hybrid Warfare
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses
Mass immigration is the greatest concern for EU youth

Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods

A Russian colleague has commented on the war in Ukraine. According to him, "We have defended Israel against Iranian missiles – why not Ukraine as well... We must not be paralyzed by the thought that we are provoking Putin. If he wants to do something against the West, he will do it anyway. He doesn't need provocation, as he has already decided to deliver a decisive blow to the West. We must stop him by force, just as the Soviet Union was stopped. It is the only language he understands."

I hope the professor's message is understood in the West, especially in Germany, France, the UK, and the USA, and that action is taken accordingly. This means ensuring that Ukraine's victory is not hindered by the availability of weapons.

This is especially crucial now, as Ukraine has finally made legislative changes that should gradually address their chronic manpower shortage. Meanwhile, Russia is increasingly relying on countries like China, North Korea, and Iran for its own armament.

* * *

Speaking of Iran, it was great to read the news that the president and foreign minister of the tyranny governed by the mullahs have died after the helicopter they were traveling in crashed near the Azerbaijan border, in a place near an Israeli base.

The cause of the helicopter crash seems to be bad weather. If that's the case, we humans should thank all the possible gods of climate and weather for the bad weather that brought down that specific helicopter.

In particular, it seems the Jewish god had a hand in this, arranging for the people of Israel to receive compensation for the almost empty strike that Iran launched against the country some time ago. Right now, it appears that Yahweh is a more powerful deity than Allah.

Fortunately, it seems that the helicopter crash does not appear to have involved any human-conducted military special operation—at least based on the news flow—but rather it was solely a contest of power between the gods. This way, even the Iranian mullahs can easily accept the loss of their high leaders as a punishment from a righteous god.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel
Duck emphasizing the urgency of the new border law
The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers

The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers

Russia has recently achieved success in the ammunition-starved Ukraine. News reports indicating the increasing success of Putin's army day by day suggest that even the rapid collapse of Ukrainian defense is possible.

Three factors have enabled this development. One is the procrastination of the Trumpian House of Representatives in sending new aid packages. Second is the irresponsible defense policy of most EU countries in recent years, resulting in depleted weapon and ammunition stocks. And - as we know - it's hard to make something out of nothing. Additionally, behind it all is the Ukrainian government's inability to mobilize enough men to the front lines.

* * *

Apparently, French President Emmanuel Macron has understood that the situation in Ukraine is currently completely untenable, as he even raised the issue of sending Western troops to assist Zelensky's army. This would undoubtedly mean facing Western casualties and Russian counter-reactions in one way or another.

Western populations are by no means prepared for returning filled coffins. And their home fronts will not withstand large-scale losses. Therefore, Macron's proposal did not receive immediate support from Finland or other Western countries either.

The future commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, on the other hand, suggested granting Ukraine permission to use Western weapons also on Russian soil. This is because Estonians have learned from their history that "when Russia attacks, the war must be taken to its territory. Otherwise, we will lose it. This rule still applies."

Behind both proposals likely lies the idea of not only direct military impact but also of undermining the Russian home front. In other words, the clearer the war is visible to Russians, the more resistance is likely to arise against Putin's administration's war policies. And the more difficult position the country's dictator finds himself in domestically.

* * *

It's quite clear in this situation that Ukraine's army will collapse for sure unless it receives swift material aid from the West. Loss is also certain in the longer term if a vast number of capable Ukrainian men or women are not urgently called up and trained into Zelensky's army.

In this context, it's also worth noting that every recapture of a village surrendered to the aggressor seems to demand a massive human sacrifice in Ukraine, with fallen soldiers. Therefore, the Western countries' incapacity for effective aid to Ukraine will, in the best-case scenario, demand the lives of tens of thousands, or - if the situation persists - even hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

It's justified to say, therefore, that the delay of Western countries will be paid for with the blood of soldiers. First in Ukraine and - if Putin ultimately wins the war - later most likely also in the militarily weaker Russian border states. And eventually, possibly even in Finland.

The original thought in Finnish:
Länsimaiden viivyttely maksetaan sotilaiden verellä

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare
Desperate cry of Russians
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

Is Gerhard Schoeder of Germany ignorant, troll or stupid?

Ukraine is going to conduct a counter-attack against Russians in the southern part of the country. The fightback is extremely important as it has been well prepared, and troops are numerous and equipped with modern western weaponry. 

Therefore I consider the following days to become some of the most important ones during the war. If Ukrainians fail, it provides a lot of confidence to Vladimir Putin´s military force. But if Ukrainians will succeed, that will turn the situation also in Donbas and Luhansk, where Russians have thus far had some success. 

Therefore is was extremely unwise from Gerhard Schoeder of Germany to insist diplomacy as the only way to end the war. In my opinion, a man with such a long history in politics should understand that the only outcome from diplomacy would be acceptance of Russian violence. And that is not acceptable. 

It should also be noted that General Pekka Toveri noted Russians to have - theoretically - a huge reserve of soldiers, but it seems to be difficult to mobilize them into the front. Therefore, spending time with diplomacy would work only for Russians, and against Ukrainian attempts to keep their independence.

Therefore we should ask, whether Schröder is Putin´s troll, ignorant about facts or simply stupid?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish general to Scholz and Macron: no reason to negotiate with a terrorist
Russian army not comparable to western military services
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor

Finnish general to Scholz and Macron: no reason to negotiate with a terrorist

A former oligarch,  Mikhail Khodorkovsky, tweeted that "Putin stole (1) part of Ukraine´s territory. He got sanctions for that. To remove them, he stole (2) more, killing thousands of people. Got sanctions. Then he stole (3) all the grain, blocked the ports & threatened to create a famine, demanding the sanctions be lifted. Am I getting this right?"

A retired Finnish general commented on Emmanuel Macron´s and Olaf Scholz´s request to warlord Vladimir Putin about serious negotiations. According to him, there is no reason to negotiate with a terrorist. In his opinion "the only correct solution is to send the sixth fleet of the US navy reinforced by Allied units to escort grain ships and at the same time detain Russian ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain".

To me it is unbelievable that it takes a Russian refugee and a Finnish general to clarify facts about the dictator of Russia to the two most important leaders of the West-European countries. That is: facts about a  dictator, who has just violated all possible agreements between sovereign countries and is responsible on a disgusting neglect of human rights by his army. 

I think Scholz and Macron should take a look at a mirror, and recognize ugly faces of thoughtless puppets of the most dangerous dictator of our time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Tractor course for Ukrainians
Place of the Free Ukraine
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor