A Brave New World Will Be Born from Today’s Fertility

A recent article discussed changes in the world’s demographic structure. According to it, global population growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. For example, the fertility rates in the already highly populous countries of Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are 3.50, 4.30, and 3.81 respectively.

Even more striking figures can be found in Chad, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In those countries, women give birth to an average of 5.94, 5.91, and 5.90 children respectively. At the opposite extreme are Macao, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with fertility rates of 0.69, 0.74, and 0.75.

In Finland, the fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman in 2025. Across the entire European Union, the average was 1.34 in 2024, and in North America last year it was 1.59.

In practice, this means that in the world of the future, people will predominantly have genetic and cultural roots in developing countries — above all African ones, but also Asian peoples belonging to the Islamic cultural sphere, as illustrated by the Wikipedia map below.

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The future scenario I have outlined above actually came to mind while I was reading a column by a journalist from Finland’s largest newspaper about the civil war in Sudan. In it, Europeans were criticized for not caring about the Sudanese civil war and its victims.

According to Mykkänen, the Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Rania Dagash-Kamara, had spoken at an event held in the Finnish Parliament’s “Little Parliament” building about rapes committed against civilians in Sudan. These acts are carried out by armed men from the various sides in the conflict, and no one seems interested in protecting the victims from sexual violence.

After the event, Member of Parliament Eva Biaudet (Swedish People’s Party) reportedly showed a UNICEF report according to which rape has become a systematically used weapon of war. And it does not affect only women — one third of the victims are boys.

In addition, sixteen of the raped children were under the age of five. Four of them were only one year old.

I repeat: only one year old. In practice, babies! What kind of person rapes babies?

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Based on all this, I was left wondering what kind of world we may have in one or two hundred years’ time — taking into account what I said at the beginning of this text about the genetic and cultural roots of future humanity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Deep Roots of Violence and Disregard for Human Dignity in History
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
How to Increase Fertility Rates: A Finnish Solution

Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia

The war in Ukraine has had many different consequences. However, not many people have considered that one of them is the rapid growth of the wolf population in the Murmansk region, which has led to an exceptionally large number of these dog-like predators crossing the border into Finland.

Wolves are also being spotted on the Russian side of the Kola Peninsula in places where they have never been seen before. And this is not a one-time occurrence, as Russia’s wolf population has grown significantly during previous wars as well.

According to Finnish large carnivore researcher Ilpo Kojola, the explanation for the increase in wolves is that military personnel have played—and still play—a significant role in regulating Russia’s wolf population. And they are not dealing with the wolves when they have been transferred elsewhere to kill people.

So, could it be said that a community has now been found whose members would surely express—if they knew how to speak or write, say, on social media—their satisfaction with Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine? And who would support the continuation of the war forever, until the very last Russian soldier?

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Today we also heard the news that Chinese soldiers have been fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces. It remains to be seen whether China will acknowledge this.

Similarly, it remains to be seen whether Donald Trump will ultimately dare to declare to Russia that the United States will support Ukraine as much as necessary — until the very last Russian soldier is either dead or has left Ukrainian soil. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
President of Finland Asked Whether There Are Top Politicians With Serious Intellectual Limitations
Wolfs affect nature conservation
Leaders infected by a parasite

History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

This is the sixteenth - and last - part of a blog post series where I go through the most significant periods of Finnish history. In the fifteenth post, I described how Finland managed to navigate towards the Western world after World War II, under the shadow of the so-called Paasikivi-Kekkonen line of Finlandization policy. At the same time, the education level of the youth increased significantly, but it also gave rise to an extreme leftist student movement, which lost its momentum due to the rise in living standards and emigration.

In the next phase, 1980s Finland headed towards an unprecedented economic boom. The driving force behind it was the liberalization of monetary policy, which allowed banks to trade foreign currencies and grant foreign currency loans to companies that did not have income billed in foreign currencies. However, the Finnish mark was still politically regulated, meaning its value was not left to the market forces to decide.

This contradiction laid the groundwork for the exceptional depth of the 1990s recession in Finland. As a result of the liberalization of foreign currency loans, money flooded into the markets, mainly directed towards the domestic market. At the same time, the policy of strong mark choked export companies, and expectations of a politically-forbidden devaluation raised domestic interest rates.

Therefore, the Finnish mark was pegged to the euro's predecessor, the ECU, at an excessively high rate. Eventually, the entire structure collapsed, many banks went bankrupt, and particularly domestic market companies collapsed under their excessively expensive foreign currency loans after forced devaluation, the state debt exploded, the competitiveness of export companies decreased, unemployment rates skyrocketed, and indebted people lost their future by going bankrupt.

As a result of all this, the mark was eventually allowed to float, which led to a rapid improvement in the competitiveness of export companies. As a result, the Finnish economy became dominated by large companies and subcontractors of extremely successful Nokia. At the same time, Finnish large companies began to internationalize rapidly.

The depth of the recession was also influenced by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the same time, which led to the collapse of trade with the East. As a result, Finnish politicians missed the opportunity to join the Western military alliance, NATO, like the former members of the Warsaw Pact and the Baltic states that had broken away from the Soviet Union, because it would have confirmed the suspicions of Finland's decades-long Finlandization. However, Finland did join the European Union in 1995, even though it was considered a completely unrealistic goal in 1991.

After the Great Depression, the Finnish economy became more neoliberal, as evidenced by the blurring of the relationship between employers and employees through option arrangements linked to company profits. This weakened the relative position of wage earners, and high unemployment did not allow for active action by workers to eliminate it.

This concludes the series of articles based mostly on Professor Heikki Ylikangas's work, where the destruction of Nokia, Finland's defense policy orientation toward the West, and the events that followed were left unaddressed. However, I wish to make few comments related to them.

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One of the most significant measures during the recession was investing in Finnish education. This led to unprecedented expertise in the country, which enabled Nokia mobile phones to rise to a unique position in Finnish economic history. At its best, it was the world's clear market leader in its field, with about 40 percent market share and an even greater share of the profits, but it made two disastrous mistakes.

Firstly, Nokia lost its innovativeness, probably as a result of flawed personnel policies. This was caused by the company's product development based on internal competition, which resulted in an unhealthy competition within the company that directed people's attention to thwarting the product development of competing groups.

Secondly, the company's almost dominant position in the market led to maximizing profits by minimizing costs. As a result, Nokia's products were manufactured in low-wage countries, from which they eventually recruited product development labor without realizing that the difference in living standards between developed and developing countries is also based on factual reasons.

With Nokia's downfall, the flagship of Finnish economy was lost, and large corporations based on "green gold" (i.e. forestry) returned to be the backbone of the economy. However, Nokia's skilled workforce did not disappear, but rather dispersed to benefit multiple Finnish companies.

At the same time, Finland has lost some of its independence to Brussels through the EU integration process, and has had to finance less productive countries in times of crisis. On the other hand, the development of information technology has led to a decline in paper consumption, which has revitalized the product development of the forest industry companies.

At this point, the harsh truth is that the Finnish economy has not yet regained the international position it had during Nokia's heyday. Moreover, the EU's restrictions on the use of forests for economic purposes may not be conducive to its future, if implemented.

In terms of foreign policy, Russia's attack on Ukraine exposed the hollowness of neutrality policy, and Finland quickly became part of the Western defense alliance NATO. This decision will ensure the country's military security well into the future, but may also lead to more frequent entanglements in international conflicts and damage relations with its large eastern neighbor.

Perhaps the biggest change in Finnish society, however, has occurred as a result of the international migration wave from developing countries to western countries. As a result of this and the declining birth rate of the native population, the quality of Finland's population base will change significantly from what it was before - and not all of the consequences of this fundamental change can be anticipated at this point. In any case, it is already clear that a poorly integratable population group has emerged in the country, which, growing faster than the native population, will change the basic structure of Finnish society as a whole.

Finally, in recent years, Finland has had a left-wing government, during which the state budget has been patched with debt to create permanent fixed expenses. As a result, Finland's public finances appear to be aligning with Southern European weak and indebted countries in the coming years, rather than the traditional Nordic benchmark. At the same time, the population has become increasingly divided between political right and left, so the near-future prospects for the country's economy seem quite challenging at this moment.

Throughout their history, however, Finns have demonstrated significant resilience in being able to set aside their internal disagreements and work together in a way that has allowed them to address and resolve issues that have arisen. For that reason, the future of Finland is likely brighter than one could deduce from the current situation.

The original blog post in Finnish:
Nousun ja tuhon kautta uudenlaiseen tulevaisuuteen

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility

This is the sixth part of a blog series where I go through the significant stages of Finland's history. In the fifth post, I described how the country transitioned from the rule of the highest nobility to a pre-capitalist society governed by the clerical nobility, where the living conditions of ordinary people also began to gradually improve.

Professor Heikki Ylikangas considers the above-mentioned turning point as the most significant in Finnish history. Equally important, following closely after that, is the subject of this post - the mid-18th century.

At that time - amidst the political strife between the "Caps" and "Hats" factions vying for leadership positions - a number of extremely significant decrees were issued that allowed the division of farms into several parts. Prior to this, it was not possible because the state apparatus feared that the farms would become unable to pay taxes as a result.

Similarly, the establishment of tenant farms or rental farms was permitted for peasants: this right had previously only applied to noble and cavalry estates. And as the icing on the cake, the redistribution of land was decided, meaning that each farm's land was located in larger blocks rather than the narrow strips previously required for communal planting and harvesting. This enabled peasants to develop their own land independently of others.

However, initially the peasants were not at all eager to seize the opportunity. The reason was the common forests, which they did not want to divide among the founders of the new farms but rather keep as a resource for profitable tar production. The situation changed only when the crown announced that the state would no longer interfere in the division of land, even forests, and that it would be left to the responsibility of independent landowners after the land reform.

The fourth reform was population registration, which was needed for drafting soldiers into the army, as many families had previously cheated the authorities, for example by giving multiple sons the same name to avoid being drafted. Especially in the 1600s, this had practically meant a death sentence, not so much because of battles but due to diseases that heavily taxed military units.

However, dividing farms was only allowed if the applicant intended to get married. In other words, the ultimate motive behind the reforms was that the Swedish state wanted to increase its population because there was a chronic shortage of labor in the country - in ironworks, manufactories, and manors. Perhaps increasing the economic opportunities of peasants would help to increase the labor force?

As a result of this expanded private ownership, people became more interested in economic entrepreneurship and profit-seeking. In other words, in the mid-1700s, Sweden and thus Finland entered the age of utility.

Also the university system participated in promoting economic prosperity, as in 1747 the position of professor of poetry at the University of Turku was changed to a professorship in economics - the same fate befell the legal department at Uppsala. One of the inventors of economic liberalism, Antti Chydenius, graduated from the Turku Academy, presenting his theories a decade before Adam Smith wrote similar ideas that would be recorded in the world's economic history.

At the same time, the judicial system began to change and the pressure to lighten punishments increased. Municipal power began to be transferred back to parish meetings from the crown bureaucracy. Even the church began to view different revival movements more favorably.

Thus, the societal trend that began in the 1500s towards growing aristocratic power and an extremely unequal society had irreversibly turned towards raising the standard of living for the entire population and democracy. And through this, the economic foundation was gradually laid that would eventually allow for the creation of the modern Nordic welfare state, although this development was not direct or straightforward.

The original blog post in Finnish: Hyödyn aika

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

The change in the demographic structure of Helsinki

The Capitol of Finland - Helsinki - is not a huge city but rather a relatively big town with its ca. 660 000 inhabitants. It means that approximately 12 percent of Finns live in their Capitol.

According to current predictions, the population of Helsinki will grow up to 700 000 people in the following six years. But that will not be due to a baby-boom or even Finns moving from countryside, but mostly via immigration from abroad, which will be responsible of two thirds of the increasing population.

Even today, Helsinki may be considered somewhat multicultural town as only about 83 percent of people speak Finnish or Swedish (the official languages of the country) as their first language. Russian is the most common foreign language and is spoken by almost three percent of the population. That is followed by Somali, Estonian, Arabic, and English speakers with 1.8, 1.6, 1,3 and 1,1 percent share of the population. 

The figures above indicate, that most speakers of foreign languages have moved to Helsinki to work in Finland (e.g. Russian, Estonian and English speakers). In other words, they are contributing to the welfare of the city dwellers and whole country. 

However, in 2021 the number of people speaking domestic languages moving out from Helsinki was higher than the amount of those moving in. The reasons are unclear but may have to do with increasing possibilities of remote working, COVID-19 pandemic or increased violence in the streets of Helsinki. 

The big question in the future will be, what kind of immigrants Helsinki will attract in future. Will people move into the city due to its working possibilities or are they only looking for the benefits of the relatively liberal social welfare-system of Finland. And - as has been seen during the last few years - will they instead of working contribute to the criminal records. And thus reduce the quality of life in the town?

 

The answer cannot be provided yet, but it is clear that the immigration policy of the next Government of Finland will direct the development. The key question to be decided by voters in spring 2023 is, whether Finland will support possibilities for private enterprises to hire highly educated foreign workforce or if it rather opens Finland´s borders to masses of uneducated asylum seekers from the developing world. 

Interesting though, according to recent news, almost one third of Ukrainians - who escaped Russian aggression - have plans to live rest of their lives in Finland. They are hard working, and have not caused similar problems as people from Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan who looked for protection in 2015 using the war in Syria as an excuse. 

Whatever will be the outcome on the politics of the next Government in 2023-2027, its will have a major impact on the future of the Capitol area of the country. In the best case, Helsinki may in future - largely due to the positive contribution of immigrants - be seen as an excellent option for people looking for sufficient income and decent living in a safe environment - but in the worst case the Capitol may develop towards a town with poor street safety but high taxes to support living of increasing non-working population. 

These two scenarios will provide the road make to the future of Helsinki - and ultimately the whole of Finland. Therefore, elections of the Finnish Parliament in 2023 are more important than normally. And voters should use their right to give their support to candidates only after a serious consideration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine

Sweden already in trouble - Finland following
Vakartšuk of the Okean Elzy: Finnish history inspires Ukrainians

Corruption in Nigeria may affect Europe

An explosion happened in an illegal oil refining business in Nigeria. As a result, more than 100 people lost their lives. 

Oil to such illegal refineries is obtained by stealing from legitimate oil pipelines, which is a popular business among unemployed and poor Nigerians. However, it was only last February when Nigerian authorities pronounced that they would put a stop to this practice, but obviously without great success.

The explosion reminds us that incapable politicians combined with inefficient - and obviously corrupted - authorities are a serious risk for poor people. But it is not only that, but also a barrier to development of national economy.

Actually, Nigeria had a notable economic success between years 2000 and 2015, which resulted in e.g. almost tenfold increase of Gross Domestic Production. But since 2015 the GDP has reduced by about one fifth, mostly due to low oil prices and COVID-19 pandemic. 

At the same time (i.e. 2000-2020) the population size of the country has increased by 70 percent. Consequently, the rapid economic development per capita seen during the first three quarters of the time has turned to considerable recession. 

The future of Nigeria does not look very good. As oil is the basis of its economy, the green economy transition in western countries will hit the rapidly growing Nigerian population hard. In a very short time, however, the ban of Russian oil in Europe might give Nigerian leaders a window of opportunity. 

Thus, it remains to be seen, if that opportunity will be used to diversify the economic basis of the country, or will the money flow in the pockets of country´s politicians and their cronies in the form of corruption. If so, the price will be high to ordinary Nigerians.

But not only for them, but recession together with quickly growing population in Nigeria could push people to search for better life in Europe as soon as the borders closed due to COVID-19 will be opened. Therefore, corruption in Nigeria may have a major effect also for people living in the European Union in a form of increased immigration.  

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
They want to wipe out from Finland what is good for Africa

Trump is leaving Africa