Immigration Policy Must Take Artificial Intelligence and Robots into Account

Birth rates have declined rapidly in nearly all industrialized countries. This is said to cause sustainability gaps and labor shortages, which has sparked much discussion in East Asia and Europe, including in Finland.

Prime Minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo (NCP), announced yesterday that his government will implement measures to promote labor-based immigration while simultaneously tightening humanitarian immigration laws to a Nordic level. He also stated, “labor-based immigration is what we need to promote and what we want to promote. We need it.”

Another representative from a major governing party, Jani Mäkelä, chair of the Finns Party’s parliamentary group, also weighed in on the matter. According to him, the forecast’s fulfillment is uncertain since recent increased immigration primarily stems from Ukrainians, whose influx into Finland is unlikely to continue for long.

Despite this, he too noted that “the government is taking the right actions regarding labor-based immigration, tightening the requirements for entry and work eligibility. Those who remain in the country under these conditions are likely to contribute quite positively to the national economy.”

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I can largely agree with these views, but I also want to remind everyone that while the government may be setting our immigration policy on a clearly more sensible path, this approach should hold after the 2027 parliamentary elections as well. I don’t believe the election results will be determined so much by the immigration policy pursued but rather by the general economic policies in place.

For this reason, the government should ensure that Finland and its public finances turn towards growth by early 2026 at the latest, so that this will have a tangible impact on people’s lives before the spring of 2027 when elections are held. Otherwise, we risk a return to power by the left, leading to the dilution of the reforms made now and a shift toward economically and domestically unsustainable immigration policies.

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In this context, we should also note that technology is currently advancing at an exceptionally rapid pace. It is practically certain that robots guided by artificial intelligence will replace an increasing number of workers every day.

For instance, I am fully confident that if I ever end up in a nursing home, I will be cared for there—following Japan’s example—by robots. Their use won’t be limited to elderly care; robots and AI will replace various types of workers during my lifetime.

AI is already being used today, for example, in programming or determining the spatial structure of proteins. I see no fundamental obstacle to AI-driven robots in the future building opera houses or managing the entire agricultural production chain—from grain cultivation to animal slaughter, meat packaging, and delivery to stores.

It’s also virtually certain that AI robots will, at some point, be handing out ski poles by day and serving beer to vacationers at ski resorts by night. I wouldn’t be surprised to one day see a company whose owner selects an AI as its CEO or a research team with independent AI and robotic members—first steps toward this have already been seen.

In other words, the labor market will undergo radical changes within this century. Thus, there’s no need for sudden demographic policy panic reactions, even if it is currently wise to invest somewhat in labor-based immigration to address the acute labor shortage and, of course, to make it feasible for young people to have children if and when they wish to.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The difficult times for Finland's economy are coming to an end
A caliphate was demanded in Germany
The change in the demographic structure of Helsinki

Forests in Indonesia and Finland

According to a new research paper, Indonesia has lost one quarter of its old-growth forest since 1990, with its intact forest area (natural forest undisturbed by human activity) declining by 45%. Nearly half of Indonesia’s deforested land had no detectable land use five years after clearing.

This was caused by fires, long assumed to be Indonesia’s principal idle land driver, and by deliberate mechanical clearing, an understudied phenomenon despite its large deforestation footprint. When idle areas were converted to productive uses, the majority were planted with oil palms, which covered 28% of Indonesia’s deforested land by 2020.

Oil palms were the only major land use for which lagged conversion was the norm; other major drivers such as smallholder agriculture were typically established immediately after clearing.

This can be compared to boreal forestry in Finland, where practically all clear-cut forests are regenerated within a couple of years—mostly within one year—using local tree species selected based on their soil requirements. Forest fires do occur but are quickly extinguished, so the burned areas very rarely exceed one hundred hectares. Even then, they are regenerated very soon.

The amount of wood in Finnish forests has increased continuously since the 1960s, despite the country’s strong forest industry, which contributes almost one-fifth of its export value. At the same time, the area of protected forests has increased year after year, and there are currently 73 old-growth forest reserves established on state-owned lands.

The lesson to be learned is that forests can be used efficiently in two ways: sustainably or destructively. But what should we do to make the first option so attractive that it would be practiced everywhere?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto aligned Indonesia on the wrong side of world history
A new justification is needed for environmental activists
They want to wipe out from Finland what is good for Africa

Cousin is a cultural delicacy

We Europeans are well aware that among many developing nations, it is common to marry relatives. So the idea is, "the cousinier, the juicier."

What remains unclear, however, is whether this has been the original behavior of humanity or a later cultural development, despite some indications suggesting an increase in consanguineous marriages among humans in recent times.

To get an answer, one must of course examine human groups that lived long ago. And it was precisely such a research report that I recently came across.

The study I read analyzed the last hunter-gatherers inhabiting Western Europe, who soon became displaced by the farming newcomers spreading from the southeast of the continent - or merged with them. The examined individuals had inhabited southern Brittany in France approximately seven or eight thousand years ago.

The analysis of ten individuals from three different locations revealed that spouses were not sought from within their own groups but from among different groups residing in different locations. As a result, consanguineous marriages were avoided, despite the very small population of each group - and consequently, also of the hunter-gatherers living in the area.

Somewhat surprisingly, researchers also found that the hunter-gatherers did not seek spouses from farming communities, even though such communities existed in the vicinity. Thus, the hunter-gatherer communities of the time remained quite separate for a long time, even though there was migration from them to the farming communities.

Returning to the question of cousin marriages that initiated this blogpost, based on the study I've discussed, it can be concluded that the original inhabitants of Europe did not practice such marriages.

In other words, they had an excellent understanding that marrying cousins was not sensible. This seems to be not clear to all contemporary human groups, those who, for one reason or another, have adopted consanguineous reproduction in their culture.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Violent demographic changes in Denmark
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
Long distance trade

History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility

This is the sixth part of a blog series where I go through the significant stages of Finland's history. In the fifth post, I described how the country transitioned from the rule of the highest nobility to a pre-capitalist society governed by the clerical nobility, where the living conditions of ordinary people also began to gradually improve.

Professor Heikki Ylikangas considers the above-mentioned turning point as the most significant in Finnish history. Equally important, following closely after that, is the subject of this post - the mid-18th century.

At that time - amidst the political strife between the "Caps" and "Hats" factions vying for leadership positions - a number of extremely significant decrees were issued that allowed the division of farms into several parts. Prior to this, it was not possible because the state apparatus feared that the farms would become unable to pay taxes as a result.

Similarly, the establishment of tenant farms or rental farms was permitted for peasants: this right had previously only applied to noble and cavalry estates. And as the icing on the cake, the redistribution of land was decided, meaning that each farm's land was located in larger blocks rather than the narrow strips previously required for communal planting and harvesting. This enabled peasants to develop their own land independently of others.

However, initially the peasants were not at all eager to seize the opportunity. The reason was the common forests, which they did not want to divide among the founders of the new farms but rather keep as a resource for profitable tar production. The situation changed only when the crown announced that the state would no longer interfere in the division of land, even forests, and that it would be left to the responsibility of independent landowners after the land reform.

The fourth reform was population registration, which was needed for drafting soldiers into the army, as many families had previously cheated the authorities, for example by giving multiple sons the same name to avoid being drafted. Especially in the 1600s, this had practically meant a death sentence, not so much because of battles but due to diseases that heavily taxed military units.

However, dividing farms was only allowed if the applicant intended to get married. In other words, the ultimate motive behind the reforms was that the Swedish state wanted to increase its population because there was a chronic shortage of labor in the country - in ironworks, manufactories, and manors. Perhaps increasing the economic opportunities of peasants would help to increase the labor force?

As a result of this expanded private ownership, people became more interested in economic entrepreneurship and profit-seeking. In other words, in the mid-1700s, Sweden and thus Finland entered the age of utility.

Also the university system participated in promoting economic prosperity, as in 1747 the position of professor of poetry at the University of Turku was changed to a professorship in economics - the same fate befell the legal department at Uppsala. One of the inventors of economic liberalism, Antti Chydenius, graduated from the Turku Academy, presenting his theories a decade before Adam Smith wrote similar ideas that would be recorded in the world's economic history.

At the same time, the judicial system began to change and the pressure to lighten punishments increased. Municipal power began to be transferred back to parish meetings from the crown bureaucracy. Even the church began to view different revival movements more favorably.

Thus, the societal trend that began in the 1500s towards growing aristocratic power and an extremely unequal society had irreversibly turned towards raising the standard of living for the entire population and democracy. And through this, the economic foundation was gradually laid that would eventually allow for the creation of the modern Nordic welfare state, although this development was not direct or straightforward.

The original blog post in Finnish: Hyödyn aika

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?

In 2022, I wrote a series of blog posts briefly describing the most important stages in Finland's history, mostly based on the writings of Professor Heikki Ylikangas. Today, I have decided to translate the entire story for my international readers as I assume this topic is not very familiar to almost anyone outside Finland. 

In this series you can expect a total of sixteen posts covering ancient history up to the 21st century, which I hope will increase understanding of my homeland in other parts of the world.

Hunter-gatherers populated Finland from various directions immediately after the end of the Ice Age. However, about 3 500 years ago, a strong population flow from Siberia altered the genes of the people living in Finland at that time.

The well-known early medieval Levänluhta people, with one exception, were ancestors of the Sámi people, who had spread over a much wider area than present-day Sápmi. On the other hand, ancient DNA has also been found in two other locations in southern Finland, but there it differs from the DNA of most present-day Finns, but has similarity to DNA of the Volga-Ural region.

The population of present-day Finland is roughly divided into two genetically separate groups along the border of the Treaty of Nöteborg that runs through the country from southeast to the northern west coast. Agriculture arrived in to Finland about 5 000-4 000 years before the beginning of the Common Era, but interestingly, medieval DNA is divided so that the forms associated with hunter-gatherers are common in southwestern and southern Finland, where agriculture has been most common according to the historical records. In the east and north, on the other hand, there are more gene forms associated with agriculture. This suggests that there were significant population movements in Finland during the medieval period - or perhaps the limited medieval samples available do not accurately represent the true relationships of these genes at prehistorical time.

Following Finland's early history, its subjugation to Swedish rule almost 1000 years ago set the course for the country's future and its population. According to Professor Heikki Ylikangas, this happened mostly voluntarily because the organization of Finnish society was not sufficient for military resistance, as in the Baltics, and enemies could be avoided simply by fleeing into endless forests.

An exception to this rule was the more densely populated region of Satakunta, South-Western coast of Finland. There the society was better organized and the prevalence of crop farming forced people to defend their property. As a result, Swedish settlements along the coast were thinner in Satakunta than in other parts of Finland.

With the arrival of the Swedes, Finland received a legal system and Christianity copied from the mother country, which in turn brought with it also the social organization. At this stage, the Catholic Church can be considered the most powerful force in the country, owning as much as 21 percent of the cultivated land in Sweden. In addition to the church, power was in the hands of the king and locally with powerful families.

Thus, Finland had become linked to the Western world. Its future was tied to Sweden's destiny for hundreds of years, for better or for worse.

The original blog post in Finnish: 
Suomen liittyminen osaksi läntistä kulttuuria

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

Availability of coffee in a warming world

Most of the coffee-plants are grown in Africa, South America, south-eastern Asia and Indonesia. Despite that, more coffee is drunk in Finland than in any other country, when consumption is compared to the number of the population. Finns consume almost 10 kg of roasted coffee per person every year.

Therefore it was interesting to note that global warming may soon make it impractical for many plantations to grow the world’s most popular coffee bean, Coffea arabica. As a solution, coffee growers in Africa have seriously turned their view to a long-forgotten variety, C. liberica.

This plant was widely grown in the 1870´s, but due to its fruits being large and hard to process, the bean lost its popularity at the turn of the 20th century. Due to problems with C. arabica, Ugandan farmers have recently started to ramp up cultivation of a subspecies "excelsa" of C. liberica , which is resistant to wilt and other diseases. 

It produces excellent coffee and does not need chilly high altitudes to thrive. Therefore it seems that coffee cups can be kept full even if the planet warms as predicted. I believe this is a welcome news for the caffeine-addicts throughout the world - and especially valuated in Finland inhabited by the record holders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Problem in berrypicking
A new route for the Ukrainian crops
Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining

Problem in berrypicking

We have a problem due to Russian attack against Ukraine. And I am not talking about military threat but berry picking.

In Finland we have considerable amounts of berry production. There is a good reason for it as our summer days are extremely long, which results in high amounts of taste-giving aroma in the berries. 

The problem arises from the fact that many berry growers have hired Ukrainians to work in the field during recent years. Now Ukrainians are not available due to the Russians, Finnish kids are not any more willing to search jobs from farms, and refugees and asylum seekers from developing countries rather live with social subsidies than spend their days by working for a salary.

Now the fear is that the excellent yield of strawberries cannot be picked in the short time frame available between their ripening and rotting. The question arising is: what will be the future of a society, where no one is willing to earn their living by somehow unpleasant work. 

Not youngsters, not unemployed or not immigrants. And taxpayers pay to all of them for doing nothing in the name of social security.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Share of EU recovery funds will turn attitudes more negative
A new justification is needed for environmental activists
A new route for the Ukrainian crops

 

A new route for the Ukrainian crops

Ukraine is one of the most important producer of crops. Therefore the Russian attack to Ukraine might have a major impact on the food availability in some countries - especially in the Near East/North Africa.

Today it was reported by the Helsingin sanomat that a new route has been established to Ukrainian agricultural products. That goes via Poland and Baltic sea. Using that route, the first ship managed to bring 18 000 tons of corn to Spain. The ship - named Alppila - was sailing under the Finnish flag.

This news was of extreme importance taken that hunger is understandably the strongest force causing instability in the developing world and pushing masses of people towards north to look for better life. And that will - ultimately - cause many kinds of problems even in the receiving countries as seen e.g. in Sweden. 

Therefore it was important that the cargo managed to make its way to Spain, and will have successors in the near future. At the same time, it reduces the effects of Russian actions to stop export of Ukrainian products and its attempt to put pressure on western nations to stop their military support to the attacked nation. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Riots in Sweden: what next?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor