Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache

Putin's three-day "special military operation" has left Russians in dire straits. For example, motorists can obtain fuel only after waiting in long queues, as Ukrainian strikes on the country's oil refineries have significantly reduced Russia's refining capacity. In addition, the war has exacted a staggering human toll in the form of dead and wounded soldiers—leading to speculation that Putin may even be considering a new round of mobilization.

Yet these may not be the most significant consequences of the "special military operation." According to an article published by the Wall Street Journal, China is seeking to turn Russia into something of a vassal state. This would mean a situation in which Russia becomes dependent on China, more closely integrated with it, and increasingly looks to China as a model and a source of modern thinking.

According to the article, the Chinese have therefore been cultivating contacts with Russians whom they believe could rise to positions of influence after Putin. At the same time, they have been slow to accommodate Putin's wishes and have, for example, demanded that any agreement to build the long-discussed gas pipeline from Siberia to China include provisions allowing them to purchase Russian gas at Russia's much lower domestic prices rather than at international market rates.

When one also considers the halt in Russia's military advance—and, in some areas, even its retreat—Ukraine is increasingly emerging as Putin's Waterloo. And China is unlikely to have any qualms about exploiting the situation to the fullest.

* * *

If, as now seems increasingly possible, Russia ends up becoming a Chinese vassal state as a consequence of its war, Finland should finally begin asking what this would mean for Russia's northwestern neighbor. Would growing Chinese influence increase or reduce the security threat that Moscow poses to Finland?

It is, of course, clear that once peace returns, trade across the eastern border is likely to become easier again. But will it resemble the trade that existed before the "special military operation"? Or will it acquire a distinctly Chinese dimension? And if so, would that be beneficial or detrimental to Finland?

I have not noticed experts, civil servants, or politicians giving these questions the attention they deserve. I therefore urge them to do so without delay, so that we can make the most of the opportunities that may emerge while avoiding the pitfalls that lie ahead.

After all, politics is ultimately the art of the possible, where successful anticipation is already half the battle. This has always been especially true of Finland's policy toward its eastern neighbor.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's Endgame: Deception, Escalation, or Death?
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear

Activism Without Truth

Politically left-wing Palestine activists seem to have an exceptionally poor grasp of facts. The latest example of this came yesterday, when Palestine Action Finland defaced the office of the Norwegian-Finnish ammunition and weapons manufacturer Nammo with red paint, claiming that the company had participated in Israel’s actions in Gaza by supplying weapons and ammunition to its army.

In reality, Nammo has not supplied weapons or ammunition to the Israeli army since it began its operations in Gaza to root out Hamas terrorists. The Nammo products currently in Israel originated from the United States, to which they were sold in 2008. About 15 years later, they made their way from the U.S. to Israel.

This raises the question: what should we think of people who resort to acts of terror without even bothering to check whether their so-called justifications are true? Not to mention that through their actions, these activists effectively showed support for the very terrorist act that started the war.

Likewise, this group of people seems unaware—or fails to grasp the significance—of the fact that Western countries have supported the Palestinians with massive sums of money over the years, much of which has been used to support terrorist activities, such as the construction of an extensive tunnel network in Gaza. For that reason, they cannot be considered blameless in the current suffering of the region’s inhabitants.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Security Council Resolution Draft Risks Encouraging Terrorism
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons
Palestinians: acknowledging facts is the beginning of wisdom!

Good luck to Chancellor Friedrich Merz!

The coalition negotiations in Germany have been concluded, and as a result, the next Chancellor of the country will be Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democrats (CDU). His government is scheduled to begin its work in the early days of May. The coalition will include the CDU, CSU, and SPD, and with this, Merz sent a message to the President of the United States, stating that "Germany is back on track."

Naturally, the government's effectiveness remains to be seen, but it will certainly not be helped by the fact that Germany's economic growth is expected to slow to almost zero in the near future. On the other hand — as we have all noticed — at least the trade war between the US and the EU, previously threatened by Donald Trump, has for now been called off by both sides.

According to Merz, the incoming government plans to significantly increase the country's defense spending and will also provide comprehensive support for Ukraine.

Domestically, the government faces pressure from the AfD, whose support has recently risen to match that of the CDU/CSU according to the latest polls. 

However, it remains to be seen how the government's policies, especially its program described as critical of immigration, will affect the popularity of different parties in the coming years.

What is clear, however, is that for the EU, the success of Merz’s government in both domestic and foreign policy would be important. Therefore, it is only fitting to wish him success in his new role.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point?
Afghan's Rampage in Germany Signals the End of the Value-Liberal Era in the EU

Economic Decline Awaits Americans as Trump Imposes Tariffs

Economists are quite unanimous in their view that tariffs hinder economic growth and overall welfare. They also agree that free trade and the removal of trade barriers boost economic growth.

These views stem from the fact that free trade lowers the prices of goods and services for both producers and consumers. Moreover, tariffs partly translate into higher prices, which negatively affect importers, exporters, and consumers alike.

This holds true even when tariffs are intended to protect a specific industry, as they inevitably increase production input costs and trigger retaliatory tariffs. Import tariffs can also harm domestic exporters by disrupting supply chains and raising their input costs.

In the long run, an even more harmful effect of tariffs is that they reduce competition between companies. As a result, businesses operating in tariff-protected markets become inefficient and less innovative, ultimately leading to difficulties—especially if the tariff barriers are later removed.

All of this seems to be entirely unknown to U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to announce import tariffs on "all" trade partners today. This is despite the fact that the tariffs he imposed during his first term had a negative impact on American employment, as noted by Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Director of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

Unfortunately, potential U.S. tariffs would have equally negative effects on America's trade partners. As a result, it won’t be just Americans who "enjoy" economic decline, but almost all nations across the world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Real Problem with American Cars: Poor Market Fit
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?
Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?

Stupid and Fruitless Blustering by South Africa's Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool

The United States has ordered South Africa's ambassador to Washington, Ebrahim Rasool, to leave the country by Tuesday. This decision stems from Rasool's statement characterizing the MAGA movement supporting President Donald Trump as a product of white supremacy. According to him, the MAGA movement emerged as a response to the multiculturalization of the U.S. population.

This blustering was of course stupid and fruitless. On the other hand, if you have given with a spoon, you cannot demand with a ladle. In other words, if a person is stupid, you cannot expect him to act reasonably. 

Of course, Rasool's behavior may have been related to his religion. Muslims around the world are known for blustering about anything and everything - and suffering severe consequences, as demonstrated by the terrorist attack carried out by Hamas on October 7th 2023 and the resulting destruction of the Gaza Strip.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, being more pragmatic, has announced that the ambassador will return to his home country and expressed his desire to repair relations with the United States. After all, the U.S. is South Africa's second-largest trading partner, and losing that relationship would mean hard times, especially for the country's poor Black majority.

It remains to be seen how relations between the countries will evolve. Will good relations and trade ties be restored, or will South Africa drift into a state similar to other Sub-Saharan African nations?

In this context, it is interesting to observe the population trends of the country's white minority over the years. In short, the population decreased from 5.2 million in 1995 to 4.5 million by 2022. However, the trend has not been linear, but includes some periods of growth, although the past decade has shown a decline again. This does not bode well for the country's future.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Resisting Putin’s Foolish Dreams
South Africa: life without a culture of maintenance
Should forbidden questions be answered or not?

Russia’s War Rages On – And the World Keeps Funding It

According to a recent report, EU countries are spending more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid for Ukraine. In 2024 alone, the EU purchased Russian oil and gas worth €21.9 billion but provided Ukraine with only €18.7 billion in financial support. Of course, in addition to this, the EU has donated military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, this situation highlights that the EU has failed to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, which is waging a war of aggression. It also plays a part in the fact that Russia’s energy exports have declined by less than a third.

Or can this even be said? After all, the total value of Russia's oil, gas, and coal exports in 2022 was €356 billion, but in the previous year—2021—only €264 billion, and in the following year—2023—€250 billion. That’s roughly the same scale as last year, when it amounted to €242 billion.

The figures above clearly show that the world’s nations do not actually care that Russia attacked its neighbor. Or at the very least, they are not willing to sacrifice their own comfort to support Ukraine’s defense struggle.

One can only hope that this situation changes—and quickly—not only in the EU but also in other countries worldwide, including Donald Trump’s United States. If not, one must start questioning whether President Trump is, after all, "in Putin’s pocket," as was already suspected during his previous presidency.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
President of Finland Asked Whether There Are Top Politicians With Serious Intellectual Limitations
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Zelensky Condemns Fico’s "Immoral" Support for Putin

Trump’s America: Criminal or Benefactor?

The American Republican Senator Lindsey Graham raised the question of why Ukrainians should consider allowing Americans access to their natural resources. According to him, "a mineral agreement would secure American business interests. Putin does not understand what will happen if the agreement is signed. He is in trouble because Trump supports the deal—he defends the interests of the USA."

In other words, in its difficult situation, Ukraine could trade its mineral resources for the United States’ commitment to defending the country against the Russians now and in the future. The idea is undeniably interesting.

On the other hand, the idea can also be interpreted—and this is the general perception in Europe—as the Trump administration blackmailing Ukraine into giving up its natural resources in exchange for American support. Put differently, this would mean acting according to the principles of organized crime.

In fact, I feel that both interpretations reflect reality. That is, the Trump administration is indeed pressuring the Ukrainians, but at the same time, it sincerely believes that the U.S. has no obligation to sacrifice its resources—let alone its soldiers—to save a European state without receiving something in return.

Which side weighs more heavily in Trump's thinking remains known only to him. However, Europeans should take a hard look in the mirror and recognize that they—yes, they, basking in their own self-righteousness—have neglected their own defense. As a result, in 2014 and 2022, they were too weak to act as a deterrent against Vladimir Putin’s power politics—and even weaker in turning the war in Ukraine’s favor.

In practical terms, this means that European security policy must be completely rethought. Instead of EU countries trying to shirk their NATO expenses, they must now take the lead in demanding strict compliance. At the same time, they must ensure that each state increases its military capabilities to meet the requirements necessary to keep Putin and future Russian dictators in check.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Europe Needs More Money—and More Will—to Defend Itself
Finland Shifts Stance on EU Joint Debt Amid Growing Defense and Ukraine Support Needs
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?

Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?

Finland has always had excellent relations with the USA. As a sign of this, President Alexander Stubb has refrained from criticizing Donald Trump’s administration and has instead sought to understand its actions—even to the extent that some have speculated he is overly deferential to it.

There is, of course, an excellent explanation for Stubb’s and Finland’s approach: as a neighbor of Russia—and following the era of Finlandization, when the country had to be cautious in its dealings with the Soviet Union—Finland is now heavily dependent on NATO and, consequently, the USA to guarantee its military security. Nevertheless, Finland will remain a state governed by the rule of law, firmly committed to defending the inviolability of national borders against all major powers. This applies to Denmark as well.

In this context, it is extremely unfortunate that President Trump is threatening the EU—and, by extension, Finland—with trade tariffs that would hinder transatlantic commerce. Such measures would be particularly harmful to open economies like Finland’s, whose prosperity relies heavily on foreign trade. It would not be beneficial for the United States either, as it could negatively impact the very positive attitude that Finns generally have toward Americans.

It remains to be seen whether Trump and his administration understand this and seek to balance trade between the USA and the EU through other means. Moreover, in the end, high US tariffs would be paid by ordinary American voters, which is unlikely to increase Trump’s popularity in his own country.

After all, there are plenty of people in the US who struggle to cover their daily expenses. And they certainly did not vote for Trump so that he would plunge their personal finances into even greater hardship.

* * *

Finally, I would like to share a message with my American readers from my country’s Minister for Foreign Trade, Wille Rydman (Finns Party). At the end of last week, he made the following remarks:

"The United States has been focused on utilizing Alaska’s mineral resources. Here, Finland’s world-class geological expertise can offer significant contributions. The U.S. plans for Alaska have also emphasized the development of basic infrastructure, particularly in telecommunications, an area where Finland has strong capabilities."

"The U.S. has also prioritized improving its situational awareness in the Arctic. There is room for development in sensor technology, measurement and monitoring systems, and the utilization of space technology. Finland has expertise in all these fields."

"We are working to open markets through ICE Pact cooperation, which could allow Finnish shipyards to contribute their capacity to icebreaker construction. North America faces a shortage of shipbuilding capacity, making this a fantastic opportunity for our shipyards... We have the knowledge and capability to build the best icebreakers quickly and at a competitive price. Finnish maritime industry companies have supplied icebreaking technology for the most powerful polar icebreakers, Baltic Sea escort icebreakers, as well as smaller river and port icebreakers. Our expertise is extensive, and the industry operates on a global scale."

I sincerely hope that these considerations reach President Trump’s administration and encourage it to foster cooperation between Finland and the EU—natural allies of the United States—rather than risk a trade war that would harm all parties involved.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Trump’s Tariff Weapon Worked, but Will Finland’s Development Aid Strategy Succeed?
Putin, Trump, and the Prospect of Peace
Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?

Putin, Trump, and the Prospect of Peace

President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, suggested recently that peace between Ukraine and Russia could be achieved in less than six months. This is because Russia’s economy is currently in a rather dire situation.

The situation in Russia is not helped by the fact that Donald Trump, the newly elected President of the United States, aims to lower global oil prices. This would further diminish the revenue available to Putin’s dictatorship. Most importantly, it would lower the standard of living for people living in Russia, potentially increasing their opposition to the war and even leading to rapid radicalization.

One can look to Russia’s own history for parallels in this matter—specifically the February and October Revolutions.

In the former case, the public’s dissatisfaction with Russia’s losses in war (during World War I) led to power being transferred from the Tsar to the Mensheviks. However, the Mensheviks continued the war, which prolonged the burdens it inflicted on the population. Additionally, the government’s actions caused rapid inflation, making it unprofitable for peasants to sell grain to the cities.

As a result, food supply in urban areas worsened continuously, while living costs rose rapidly, and unemployment began to increase. Ultimately, the Bolsheviks launched another revolution, taking control by promising work and bread—and an end to the war that was devastating the population.

* * *

All of this is undoubtedly known to both Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. This is why the former has good reasons to carefully listen to what the newly elected U.S. president offers him.

It is also worth noting that if a significant portion of the Russian population turns against the war, the situation will become untenable for Putin, much like what happened to the Germans at the end of World War I. At that time, a revolution began in the navy and quickly spread among the people.

In Germany, too, the rebellion was fueled by war fatigue and economic difficulties. The difference compared to Russia was in the outcome—Germany avoided the yoke of socialism, and the deposed Kaiser survived, unlike in Russia.

The question remains whether President Stubb is correct—can Donald Trump push Putin into a corner from which there is no way out other than agreeing to peace? It will also be interesting to see what terms are set for peace.

In this regard, the Russian revolutions of 1917 and the German revolution of 1918 provide fascinating points of comparison. Following the Bolshevik Revolution, Russia’s territory was significantly reduced as several states—including Finland—gained independence. Similarly, Germany lost territory as a result of the Treaty of Versailles, which ended World War I.

* * *

It remains to be seen, however, whether Trump is willing to push Putin’s Russia into a position as desperate as that of the Tsarist Empire in 1917, forcing it to withdraw entirely from Ukraine. Or will he ultimately offer Putin an opportunity to retain at least part of the territory he seized in and after 2014?

If it is true, as Trump has claimed, that Ukraine is ready to “make a deal,” the terms are unlikely to be favorable for Putin. And they will certainly not improve if Russian public support for the war vanishes.

And what about Putin’s own position? If and when he is forced to negotiate a peace that is a loss for Russia, will he suffer the same fate as the Russian Tsar or the German Kaiser in the revolutions of just over a century ago? Or will he somehow manage to retain his grip on power?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?

The future president of the United States, Donald Trump, has threatened either to buy Greenland from Denmark or even to seize it by military force. The latter threat, in particular, does not sound like something a leader of a friendly nation would say.

This has also drawn attention in the European Union. For example, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that it is clear the EU will not allow any country, whoever they may be, to violate its sovereign borders.

Such discussions among NATO allies obviously serve only one purpose: to advance the goals of Russia and China against the Western world. Therefore, it must be asked whether Trump fails to grasp the implications of his words or if he is genuinely under the influence of China and/or Russia.

However, I am not sure which scenario would be worse—a foolish president of a Western superpower or a puppet of states hostile to the West. For this reason, I hope that Trump’s words will ultimately turn out to be nothing more than empty bluster.

* * *

Greenland’s status as part of Denmark is not necessarily straightforward, as the island's Prime Minister, Múte B. Egede, also addressed the matter in his New Year’s speech. According to him, it is time for the island to “break the chains of colonialism” and take responsibility for its own future.

Considering that Greenland has vast natural resources but fewer than 60,000 inhabitants, I do not find this comment particularly wise. Not because those people couldn’t live well on their island, but because as an independent nation, it would be both highly attractive and defenseless.

It is therefore obvious that, in addition to the United States, both China and Russia would be extremely interested in bringing Greenland into their sphere of influence. For this reason, the Greenlandic Prime Minister’s comment must also be regarded as unequivocally foolish—especially in today’s world, where it seems a new Cold War has begun.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine

Vladimir Putin is Leading Russia into an Economic Ruin

Finland's Minister of the Interior, Lulu Ranne (Finns Party), stated that there are clear indications of sabotage organized by Russia in Finland, even though there is no conclusive evidence. However, there are circumstantial signs of Russia's involvement, such as breaches in Finland's water supply systems.

That said, Finns have no need to worry, as the country's authorities are prepared for a wide range of threats. Additionally, the police have been strengthened to face and counter armed attacks, which might target the police rather than soldiers.

Such attacks could include terrorist strikes or sabotage organized by Russia. To combat these and other destructive actions, Finland's police have acquired armored vehicles since the mid-2010s.

It is unfortunate that Putin's Russia has proven to be an unfit neighbor, acting in international relations like a pig in its pen. As a result, it misses out on the benefits that international trade and cooperation could offer—and once did offer during the Soviet era.

At that time, as much as a quarter of Finland's foreign trade was conducted with the Soviet Union. And in the later stages, when socialist technology fell behind that of the West, oil and other raw materials were used as “currency” to purchase Finnish technological products. These resources were then refined in Finland and sold on the international market.

However, those good times are now over, and Vladimir Putin is leading his country deeper into economic ruin. As a result, he will eventually be ousted from his position as one of the world's leaders—sooner or later.

* * *

Finally, a slightly different matter. I was very pleased today when I noticed that, despite his efforts, Putin failed to prevent Moldova from aligning itself more closely with a free Europe.

I am, of course, referring to the referendum on whether Moldova's constitution should include a commitment to seeking membership in the European Union. At the time of writing, it has become clear that this will happen, albeit with only a small majority of votes. This is yet another defeat for Putin on his and Russia's path to destruction.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness
Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine

Rising Trade Tensions Between the EU and China

It is well known that China has in recent years conquered global markets by generously supporting its own industry. As a result, it has brought, for example, the European automotive industry almost to its knees, and some of it has already been relocated to China.

However, now the European Union member states are planning to impose permanent tariffs on electric cars manufactured in China. This would increase the cost of importing cars from China to Europe by five to ten thousand euros at current prices, depending on the manufacturer, assuming the tariffs are passed directly onto the prices.

It remains to be seen what will happen if the decision is implemented. It is likely that at least some sort of trade war will break out, unless a miracle happens and a fair agreement is reached on the level of state subsidies.

This would, of course, require that China understands the reason why the EU is imposing tariffs and accepts the principle of fairness, which would include mutual respect. However, this is probably too much to expect, at least until enough damage has been done to both parties' economies through mutual squabbling.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
China uses Western universities to educate its youth
China is betting on scientific excellence
Does China prove the superiority of market economy?

Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Vladimir Putin's Russia has intended to make the Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Asia and through Russian-controlled waters, a major shipping lane. Behind this plan is not only the economic benefit for Russia but also the assumption that the shrinking of Arctic sea ice would make the route more navigable.

However, the volume of this shipping traffic is expected to fall to almost half of what was planned, leading Russia's state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, to sharply lower its forecast for the amount of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route by 2031.

This follows Putin's directive that at least 80 million tons of cargo should pass through the route this year and 200 million tons by 2031. In reality, the volume of cargo traffic is expected to reach only about half of the planned figures.

Another reason is that the Arctic sea ice has not melted as predicted since 2013, when it was at its lowest extent in recorded history. As a result, regular traffic is only feasible in the western part of the Northern Sea Route, because the ice conditions in the eastern part, east of the Gulf of Ob, are more difficult and require continuous support from heavy icebreakers.

It may well be that Russia's next step to increase the use of the Northern Sea Route will be to expand its icebreaker fleet. However, this requires both time and money, the latter of which is being spent every single day in Ukraine, where Russia's army invaded due to President Putin's megalomania.

It is therefore quite possible that the Northern Sea Route will not become a major shipping artery for a long time, and Russia will not be able to boost its economy through it. This proves the old saying that stupidity has a price. Putin´s stupidity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine
A new route for the Ukrainian crops

Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine

We all know that the Vikings were the first Europeans to land in North America. In addition, they had settlements in Greenland where no trees grow. Therefore, the Norse people, who lived in Greenland from AD 985 to 1450, relied on imports, mostly from Northern Europe, for various materials, including iron. 

Now a new investigation of ancient pieces of wood has revealed that at least 26 out of over 8 500 wood remnants found in five Norse sites in western Greenland came from trees that could not have reached Greenland solely through the natural action of tides and waves. The researchers from the University of Iceland examined the microscopic structure of the 800 years old wood remnants and concluded that the imported timber, which included species like hemlock and Jack pine, originated from mainland North America.

This discovery challenges the previous belief that Norse people exclusively imported materials from northern Europe. It suggests that they were, in fact, importing materials from the northeastern coast of mainland North America for a longer duration than previously assumed. 

Furthermore, it indicates that the Norse people had established trade connections and actively imported resources not only from distant locations within Europe but also maintained long-distance connections extending to the west. As a result, their international trade network spanned from what is now Ukraine to North America.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Long distance trade
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Vikings and the technological cutting edge

History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state

This is the second part of a blog post series where I go through the significant phases of Finland's history. In the first post, I described how Finland (or actually its densely populated southern and western parts) became a part of Sweden, which inevitably connected our country to the development of the Western world.

During the Middle Ages, the Nordic countries formed the Kalmar Union, in which power gradually shifted to the union king - that is, the Danes. For Finland - and at the same time for all Nordic countries - it was crucial that Gustav Vasa's successful rebellion restored Sweden's independence from external forces, as it was important for the future development of the region.

This was accomplished with the support of the free town of Lübeck, which belonged to the Hanseatic League that dominated Baltic Sea trade. Of course, this support had to be repaid, and the only way to do so was by stealing the property of the wealthy Catholic Church that had prospered during the Middle Ages - a justification provided by the Protestant Reformation.

Later, Gustav made Sweden even more independent from Lübeck by severing its umbilical cord with the city through an alliance with Denmark and the Netherlands, and by defeating the free city in a war with their help. As a result, Sweden - and as a part of it, Finland - withdrew from the nearly monopolistic foreign trade advantages previously demanded and obtained by the Hanseatic city.

In order to enable all of these achievements and to increase his power, Gustav Vasa had to develop a functioning central administration in Sweden, complete with tax-collecting bailiffs and written commands. Trade was directed under the control of the central government through the steeple town system, which also enriched the king's personal wealth and the kingdom itself.

Gustav Vasa also changed the justice system so that the law courts shifted towards seeking out and punishing the guilty parties. The previous practice of seeking reconciliation between the warring parties - and their families - was left in the background.

Through these actions, the new taxation and legal practices, as well as the weakening grip of the Church on power, led to the king's strong position. Beneath Gustav Vasa, there were only his servants and loyal subjects. In support of this power, the king also created a standing army, the maintenance of which required taxes e.g. money.

The importance of a monetary economy grew throughout the entire kingdom, which helped to enhance the position of the nobility who cultivated large estates and the merchants who engaged in trade, in relation to the rest of the population. This raised the nobility and the wealthy bourgeoisie of the cities above the common people.

Overall, as a result of Gustaf Vasa's actions, a modern or at least pre-modern state led by the king was established and strengthened, which was able to steer the entire kingdom in the desired direction. At the same time, the living conditions of ordinary people declined for the next two centuries - this happened both in Sweden and Finland.

The original blog post in Finnish:
Suomen tie unionin takamaasta osaksi modernia valtiota

All the blog posts in this series:
History of Finland I: How did Finland become culturally part of the West?
History of Finland II: From a hinterland of the Union into a modern state
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people
History of Finland IV: The bleakest time in Finnish history
History of Finland V: The pursuit of economic profit saved the country
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility
History of Finland VII: The dictator of the era of Enlightenment promoted capitalist economy
History of Finland VIII: Joining of Finland to Russia led to an increase in crime
History of Finland IX: Enlightended dictator initiated economic growth
History of Finland X: The birth of Finnish identity
History of Finland XI: Finnish democracy and gender equality for women
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war
History of Finland XIII: The far-right's rebellion
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
History of Finland XV: Paasikivi-Kekkonen doctrine
History of Finland XVI: Through rise and fall to a new kind of future

A new Government for Israel, but why doesn´t it solve anything?

Benjamin Netanyahu became the Prime Minister of the 37th Government of Israel. However, looking back in history, there is no reason to believe that his cabinet would stand long. After all, the new Government is already the third in 2020´s. 

One of the reasons for short Governments in Israel might be its high number of parties. After the last elections the Parliament - Knesset - consists of ten parties. Therefore the only possible type of a majority Government is a coalition, where parties contradicting political views must be settled to a common program.

That is not, however, very different from Finland, where we have nine parties and a representative of autonomous island, Åland, in the Parliament. Therefore, also our Governments are coalitions, but last typically throughout the four years between elections. 

So what is the difference between Israel and Finland? Is it the big number of religion-based movements in Israel, whereas in Finland the only religion-based party has only five seats out of the 200?

As we all know, religions have separated people throughout the history, and formed at least part of the motivation in countless number of wars. Or is it the fact, that Israel is surrounded by hostile nations, that cause pressure on the Jewish state? 

It is, however, true that also Finland has a hostile neighbor, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated. And therefore foreign policy unites Finnish political parties almost throughout the political spectrum. And that policy is also supported by a clear majority of ordinary people: for example a total of 79 percent of Finns support the NATO application currently in progress.

In contrast, there is an ongoing struggle in Israel policy towards Arabic nations and Palestinians. The previous Government supported a two-state solution whereas Netanyahu stands for an Israel including also the West Bank traditionally inhabited by Palestinians. 

Naturally I am not the right person to tell Israeli what to do - they must decide themselves. But according to my view the eternal conflict between Jews and Arabs in near east looks like a problem caused by two nations, neither of which has common sense for solutions. 

The solution could be somehow copied from post-world-war Finland. We then accepted that Karelia was lost forever, and - instead of looking for impossible revenge - started a fruitful collaboration with Soviet Union by taking advantage on trade with our big and potentially dangerous neighbor. But at the same time kept our military readiness high. 

Such a model would have two scenarios in the Holy Land. For Palestinians: stop dreaming about pushing Jews to the Mediterranean sea, stop the violence caused by your own trouble makers (calling themselves freedom fighters) and look for fair economic collaboration with Israel. That could be done equally well as a part of Israel or as an independent Palestine. Army would not be needed or - in the case of an independent Palestine in the West Bank -  its strength could be relatively low via a security agreement (guarantee) to be negotiated with Israel.  

For Jews the situation would be more complicated. They should naturally offer acceptable rights to Palestinians including equality against the law, and also promote economic collaboration with the neighboring Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. But also demand that the three last ones agree on peace agreement in a similar way as Egypt has done. 

And in all cases, Israel should definitely keep its unquestionable military superiority compared to the Islamic world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:

Explanation of Finnish attitudes towards Israeli and Palestinians
Historical failure on an issue related to a Finnish beer
Kuun tavoittelu taivaalta on johtanut palestiinalaiset ahdinkoon

Long distance trade

We often think that ancient people lived in separation with little contacts to humans living in other parts of the world. This view is, however, incorrect because trade has been more or less global for thousands of years.

I wrote in May about ivory trade between Greenland and what is today Ukraine in medieval times. And last week I noticed a new scientific investigation showing that a Late Bronze Age shipwreck - from 3 300 years ago - found off the Turkish coast carried tin ingots, of which one third was produced of ores from Central Asia, thousands of kilometers from shipwrecks location. 

The finding added evidence on a vast, disparate and culturally diverse network of trade that relied as much on the participation of small regional communities as on large, centralized states during the Late Bronze Age. And which formed a basis for the economic development that ultimately - during the following millenia - led to the current world based on global trade and cultural exchange forming the basis of the current way of living throughout the world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A new route for the Ukrainian crops
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Vikings and the technological cutting edge

A new route for the Ukrainian crops

Ukraine is one of the most important producer of crops. Therefore the Russian attack to Ukraine might have a major impact on the food availability in some countries - especially in the Near East/North Africa.

Today it was reported by the Helsingin sanomat that a new route has been established to Ukrainian agricultural products. That goes via Poland and Baltic sea. Using that route, the first ship managed to bring 18 000 tons of corn to Spain. The ship - named Alppila - was sailing under the Finnish flag.

This news was of extreme importance taken that hunger is understandably the strongest force causing instability in the developing world and pushing masses of people towards north to look for better life. And that will - ultimately - cause many kinds of problems even in the receiving countries as seen e.g. in Sweden. 

Therefore it was important that the cargo managed to make its way to Spain, and will have successors in the near future. At the same time, it reduces the effects of Russian actions to stop export of Ukrainian products and its attempt to put pressure on western nations to stop their military support to the attacked nation. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Riots in Sweden: what next?
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor

Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine

Vikings settled on the uninhabited southwestern coast of Greenland thousand years ago. That was enabled by a technological innovation that allowed them to use wooden ships in long distance sailing. However, after just few centuries the early settlements along the southwestern coast disappeared. 

The reason for the disappearance of Norse has thereafter remained a mystery. The explanations presented include cumulative environmental damage, gradual climate change, conflicts with Inuit peoples, loss of contact and support from Europe, cultural conservatism and failure to adapt to an increasingly harsh natural environment and opening of opportunities elsewhere after the black death had left many farmsteads abandoned in Iceland and Norway as well as declining value of ivory in Europe.

The last option was based on the fact that some Vikings are known to have organised summer trips to the more northerly area, where they hunted walruses, narwhals and polar bears for their skins, hides and ivory. Besides their use in making garments and shoes, these resources also functioned as a form of currency, as well as providing the most important export commoditie.

Recently it was reported in Science that Vikings shipped walrus ivory all the way to Kyiv, the capital of today´s Ukraine. This trade route is much longer than was thought based on previous studies - up to 4 000 km. This information was worked out by DNA and chemical analyses, which linked Ukrainian walrus tusk materials to a genetic group of walruses found only in the western Atlantic Ocean. 

The trade was obviously highly profitable, and may have lead to overhunting of Greenlandic walruses, due to the consumer demand in Eastern Europe. That seems to strengthen the hypothesis that Norse settlers abandoned Greenland in the 1300s at least partly due to the ending ivory trade.

This finding is just one of the historical facts that shows how medieval people had connections over long distances. And partially highlights how incorrect we are, if we consider our time as completely unique in its global connections and trade. Instead of qualitative differences, the change is only quantitative. That is, in the speed that allows us to make contacts throughout the world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
World oceans are filled with previously unknown viruses
Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining
Vikings and the technological cutting edge