Vladimir Putin's Russia has intended to make the Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Asia and through Russian-controlled waters, a major shipping lane. Behind this plan is not only the economic benefit for Russia but also the assumption that the shrinking of Arctic sea ice would make the route more navigable.
However, the volume of this shipping traffic is expected to fall to almost half of what was planned, leading Russia's state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, to sharply lower its forecast for the amount of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route by 2031.
This follows Putin's directive that at least 80 million tons of cargo should pass through the route this year and 200 million tons by 2031. In reality, the volume of cargo traffic is expected to reach only about half of the planned figures.
Another reason is that the Arctic sea ice has not melted as predicted since 2013, when it was at its lowest extent in recorded history. As a result, regular traffic is only feasible in the western part of the Northern Sea Route, because the ice conditions in the eastern part, east of the Gulf of Ob, are more difficult and require continuous support from heavy icebreakers.
It may well be that Russia's next step to increase the use of the Northern Sea Route will be to expand its icebreaker fleet. However, this requires both time and money, the latter of which is being spent every single day in Ukraine, where Russia's army invaded due to President Putin's megalomania.
It is therefore quite possible that the Northern Sea Route will not become a major shipping artery for a long time, and Russia will not be able to boost its economy through it. This proves the old saying that stupidity has a price. Putin´s stupidity.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine
A new route for the Ukrainian crops
