Stalled Melting of Northern Polar Ice Buys the West Time to Strengthen Arctic Capabilities

One of my greatest interests is the visibility of predicted climate change in the surface area of northern sea ice. Therefore, dear readers, allow me to return once again to this topic, as I have not reported on it for some time in this English-language blog.

According to the August statistics, the average surface area of northern sea ice last August was the seventh smallest in its recorded history, which began in 1979. This was because, over the past year, the ice cover was larger than in August of 2024, 2020, 2019, 2016, 2012, and 2007.

This fact fits well with the already established picture that northern sea ice shrank rapidly from the 1990s until 2007, after which its surface area has shown nothing more than random variation. This reality is also illustrated in the figure I have drawn below, where the X-axis shows the ice area in millions of square kilometers and the Y-axis shows the years.

The maximum extent of Arctic sea ice is usually reached in September, so later this month we will see whether the amount of navigable, ice-free water in the Arctic Ocean exceeds that of previous years. Based on the above statistics, this does not seem likely—but neither does it seem entirely impossible.

The size of northern sea ice naturally has its own scientific significance, particularly in the context of the threat of climate change. In addition, it carries major practical geopolitical importance, since during President Trump’s administration the United States has observed that Russia is clearly ahead of others in this respect.

In this sense, the slowdown of ice melting is very good news for the free Western world, as it gives the U.S. and other nations interested in northern maritime regions more time to build up their own capacities for operating in the Arctic. At the same time, this particularly benefits my home country of Finland, which is indisputably the world leader in building icebreakers and stands ready to offer its expertise to other nations as well.

Previous thought on the same topic:

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland

Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The past winter was exceptionally warm in Northern Europe – according to a recent study, it was even the warmest in at least 2,000 years. That’s why it is interesting that in April, the extent of Arctic sea ice was only the ninth smallest in recorded history (see figure).

This was the case despite the fact that in March, the sea ice area in the north was the smallest since satellite records began in 1979, and April was also warmer than usual in Finland. It remains to be seen whether the Arctic Ocean will melt enough by autumn for the sea routes passing through it to gain renewed attention.

This is also tied to the fact that Finnish and Canadian shipbuilders are competing to sell icebreakers to the United States. In this respect, the Finns have a clear advantage, as only Finland currently has the capacity to build the 40 icebreakers that the U.S. needs – which may be the reason why Canada has offered the U.S. the possibility of building Canadian-designed icebreakers on U.S. soil.

However, in this context, one might imagine that the U.S. would take note of the fact that even the Canadians have just ordered an icebreaker from Finland. And so, to play it safe, they might place their order with Finland as well.

On the other hand, it is clear that 40 icebreakers cannot be built in a year or two, and for that reason, the Americans might well split the order between the competing parties. It remains to be seen how this competition will play out – or whether the entire Arctic will melt to the point that, in three years' time, there will be little to no need for icebreakers in the Arctic Ocean at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures

The past October was extremely hot in many places (one, two, three examples), and for that reason, I checked NASA's NSIDC website to see if the northern sea ice might also have started melting. However, this was not the case; rather, it was the fifth largest in recorded history, as shown in the image below, which presents the polar ice area for each October over the years.

The October area of the northern sea ice was at its smallest in 2020, followed in order by 2007, 2016, and 2019. After these years comes the current year, 2024.

Thus, the area of northern sea ice has not responded to the exceptionally high temperatures on Earth’s surface—or, alternatively, there may be inaccuracies in the measurements of either the surface temperature or the ice area. Time will eventually reveal which explanation is correct.

In any case, throughout 2024, the northern sea ice area has not been the smallest on record for any month. In January, it ranked as the 24th smallest, in February the 14th smallest, in March the 25th smallest, in April the 27th smallest, in May the 24th smallest, and even in June it was the 11th smallest. After that, the melting rate of the ice accelerated compared to other years, and in July its area was the 5th smallest on record, in August the 2nd smallest, in September the 4th smallest, and in October the 5th smallest.

I won’t attempt to predict the coming months. Instead, I would like to point out to you - my esteemed readers - that the image above, which I generated based on NSIDC data seems to suggest that the melting of the ice, which began in the early 1990s, may have stabilized around 2007 and is now oscillating around a new equilibrium or is decreasing noticeably more slowly than in previous years.

I wrote earlier this year about a similar phenomenon in the July statistics, and indeed, it is also evident in the statistics for all other months. So, it remains to be seen how the ice area will develop over the last three months of this year.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?

Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland

CNN reported that the rapid ice loss of the Thwaites Glacier is set to speed up this century. The retreat of this glacier has accelerated considerably over the past 30 years. Even worse, according to the article, scientists project that Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse within 200 years, which would have devastating consequences.

Such a development would, of course, be extremely concerning, and that’s why I decided to look into how temperatures in Antarctica have evolved. For that, I searched NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies website for all available time series of Antarctic temperatures that began before the 1960s.

I’ve copied the graphs I found below, starting with Vostok and Amundsen-Scott, located in the central part of the continent, followed by the stations on the continent’s edge, beginning from the boundary of the eastern and western hemispheres and moving westward (like the sun).

My dear reader can draw their own conclusions from the series of images I have copied above. As for me, I do not plan on losing sleep over the CNN article that inspired this writing.

* * *

Speaking of glaciers: it occurred to me that I had read a study by Rebecca Adam McPherson and colleagues, who work in Germany, suggesting that the melting of Greenland’s 79 North glacier, which flows into the ocean, has slowed somewhat in recent years.

While investigating this phenomenon, the researchers found that the water temperatures beneath the glacier’s ice shelf cooled between 2018 and 2021. According to the researchers, this was due to a slowdown in the North Atlantic circulation and the cooling of Atlantic intermediate waters.

This, in turn, was the result of a phenomenon observed in Europe’s atmosphere, where cold Arctic air flowed south through the Fram Strait. This phenomenon is by no means new to science; it has caused other ocean cooling events over the past half-century and will continue to be a key factor in the development of glaciers in northeastern Greenland.

As I read the study, it naturally occurred to me whether this same phenomenon could also explain why Arctic sea ice has not melted since 2013. If so, the melting of sea ice should resume sooner rather than later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice

Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Vladimir Putin's Russia has intended to make the Northern Sea Route, which runs along the northern coast of Asia and through Russian-controlled waters, a major shipping lane. Behind this plan is not only the economic benefit for Russia but also the assumption that the shrinking of Arctic sea ice would make the route more navigable.

However, the volume of this shipping traffic is expected to fall to almost half of what was planned, leading Russia's state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, to sharply lower its forecast for the amount of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route by 2031.

This follows Putin's directive that at least 80 million tons of cargo should pass through the route this year and 200 million tons by 2031. In reality, the volume of cargo traffic is expected to reach only about half of the planned figures.

Another reason is that the Arctic sea ice has not melted as predicted since 2013, when it was at its lowest extent in recorded history. As a result, regular traffic is only feasible in the western part of the Northern Sea Route, because the ice conditions in the eastern part, east of the Gulf of Ob, are more difficult and require continuous support from heavy icebreakers.

It may well be that Russia's next step to increase the use of the Northern Sea Route will be to expand its icebreaker fleet. However, this requires both time and money, the latter of which is being spent every single day in Ukraine, where Russia's army invaded due to President Putin's megalomania.

It is therefore quite possible that the Northern Sea Route will not become a major shipping artery for a long time, and Russia will not be able to boost its economy through it. This proves the old saying that stupidity has a price. Putin´s stupidity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine
A new route for the Ukrainian crops