Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice

Climate change caused by humans is expected to be particularly rapid in the Arctic region. As a result, the northern sea ice is expected to melt, perhaps as early as the next decade.

These predictions are based on such complex climate models that even researchers cannot fully understand them, let alone ordinary tax-paying citizens. Therefore, it is extremely interesting to follow the statistics on ice area development published by the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

NSIDC publishes ice area statistics monthly. And now the statistics for June are available, from which I drew the picture below.

As seen in the figure, the ice area in June has varied over the years, but it is not possible to say that it has decreased any further since 2007. It remains to be seen when its development will return to the downward trajectory predicted by climate models—or if it will at all.

In addition to the Arctic ice area, the NSIDC publishes daily statistics on ice extent, which differs from area in a similar way that the surface area of a slice of Swiss cheese including the holes differs from its area without the holes. According to this statistic, the ice extent yesterday was the fourteenth largest for that date in its measurement history.

I have been following these statistics for a long time and have been puzzled by the fact that they are rarely reported in the media aimed at the general public. However, I am sure that many readers would find following the melting of the northern sea ice quite interesting.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January
Does Arctic sea ice melt as atmospheric greenhouse gases increase?