The Regulatory Web Is Driving Europe’s Economic Decline

As you, my esteemed readers, have undoubtedly noticed, the European Union’s position as one of the world’s leading economic regions has eroded over the past two decades. This is illustrated by the chart below, which shows the development of gross domestic product (GDP).

One clear reason for this unfavourable trend is the steadily growing — indeed, quite explosive — proliferation of well-intentioned but highly diverse regulatory requirements, namely EU directives. As a researcher, I have even experienced firsthand how they form a kind of regulatory web that effectively prevents publicly funded scientific knowledge from being translated into technological solutions for businesses and drivers of economic growth in the EU.

This has naturally contributed significantly to the EU falling behind both the United States and China in technological and economic development. This is clearly illustrated, for example, by patent application figures. While the Chinese have filed 1.4 million patent applications so far this year, the Americans 262,000, the Japanese 222,000 and even the South Koreans 186,000, the three major EU countries of Germany, France and Italy have filed just over 60,000 applications combined.

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In this respect, it is encouraging that a number of northern member states are seeking to cut the funding allocated to the EU’s central administration, whose bureaucratic inertia spreads into virtually every corner of the Union. That is why I noted with satisfaction a brief news report stating that Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (National Coalition Party) had announced that Finland could not accept Ireland’s proposal to reduce the EU budget by a mere €140 billion.

According to Orpo, “some savings have been identified, but far too few, and in some cases in the wrong areas.” By the latter, he was referring to budget cuts affecting defence, research and new technologies. In other words, the cuts are being directed at the very areas of expenditure that are most important for the EU’s future, rather than at socialist-style spending, such as cohesion funds intended to reduce disparities between different regions of the Union.

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It remains to be seen, however, what the EU’s administrative machinery will ultimately decide. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark share Finland’s position, but opposition is particularly strong in Southern and Eastern Europe, whose countries benefit from and advocate for cohesion funding — funding that, in many respects, resembles development aid.

Some kind of resolution may be reached at next week’s summit in Brussels. We should hardly expect miracles, however, since all political systems seem to have an unfortunate tendency to expand bureaucracy and endlessly quibble over details rather than trust in the creative power of the market’s invisible hand.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
EU Carbon Sink Policy Lacks Cost-Effectiveness
Polish Politics: A Quiet Success Story
A New Beginning: Economic Independence in the Hands of Developing Nations

Sex-Dependent Quackery: An Evidence Problem in Sex-Difference Research

One of the consequences of the value liberalism that has become increasingly popular in Western countries over the past few decades has been a desire to identify gender-dependent needs in different types of medical treatment. It was therefore interesting to note that Madeline T. Olivier and her colleagues demonstrated in their recent study that claims about sex occur disproportionately often in the titles of neuroscience research articles compared with other fields of medicine.

The researchers therefore wanted to know what kind of research evidence these articles were based on. For this reason, they analyzed 200 recent articles in the behavioral and brain sciences whose titles made a claim about an effect dependent on sex or gender identity.

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The researchers found that only 24 percent of the analyzed research reports supported the claim with appropriate evidence—that is, an effect between the sexes was statistically tested, and the results were consistent with the claim. In nine percent of the studies, an appropriate test was described, but the results were incomplete or entirely absent. In another nine percent, the results directly contradicted the claim being made. In the majority of the articles (58%), the statistical significance of differences in effects between the sexes was not compared at all.

Appropriate evidence was least common in research on behavioral sciences, clinical neurology, neuroscience, psychiatry, psychology, and substance use (18%), and most common in psychology (39%). In animal studies, claims were supported by appropriate evidence significantly less often (15%) than in studies involving humans (34%).

Particularly concerning is the fact that the use of appropriate analytical methods was not associated with the prestige of the journal or the number of citations received by the article. In other words, peer review in the field in question has not functioned properly. Thus, neither the publication venue nor the number of citations an article has received can be used to infer the reliability of the claims made in the research.

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Overall, the researchers concluded that claims about effects dependent on sex or gender identity made in the behavioral and brain sciences are most often not based on appropriate evidence. They therefore called into question—and effectively characterized as quackery—the use of sex-dependent research as a basis for medical treatments.

This is an issue that should be recognized both among European physicians and among civil society movements concerned with women's rights and gender diversity. Above all, it should be recognized by wellbeing services counties struggling with their finances, which can hardly be expected to benefit from spending their scarce resources on treatments related to sex-specific neurology or psychology.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health
Who Is Interested in the Rights of Nigerien Homosexuals?
Racial Bias in U.S. Traffic Policing

Paternal Cousin Beats Maternal Cousin as a Spouse

Marriage between close relatives—or, more precisely, the inbreeding among children born as a result of such unions—is harmful. This is because offspring are more likely than usual to inherit the same gene variant from both parents.

In such cases, recessive genes become expressed in the children's phenotype, causing recessively inherited diseases to manifest. As a result, children born to related parents face a higher risk of congenital structural abnormalities, developmental disabilities, deafness and blindness, as well as infant and child mortality. In addition, inbreeding reduces the cognitive ability of offspring born from such relationships, which has a negative effect on their success in life.

If marriages between relatives occur within the same family or community over several consecutive generations, genetic diversity decreases and the genetic risks increase further. Despite these disadvantages, marriage between cousins is common in many cultures.

More than 10 percent of the world's population enters into such marriages—this has also become increasingly common in Finland and other Western countries in recent years as a result of increased humanitarian immigration. For this reason, it has been suspected that such marriages may be associated with some benefit that has caused this—in itself highly harmful—cultural practice to become established in some cultures.

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One such benefit was identified in a study published by French researcher Olympia L. K. Campbell. It concerned the effect of kinship relationships on conflicts within the household, i.e. domestic violence.

The study was based on two competing hypotheses. According to the first, blood kinship would align spouses' interests and increase monitoring by relatives, thereby reducing men's incentives and opportunities to use coercion. According to the second hypothesis, close kinship networks would place family unity above women's autonomy, suppressing help-seeking and making it easier to control women.

Campbell compared these hypotheses using data collected from approximately 36,000–46,000 women in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, and Turkey. In this dataset, marriage to a first cousin was associated with a 2.5-percentage-point lower probability of physical intimate-partner violence compared with marriages in which the spouses were not blood relatives.

For a woman, this corresponds to an approximately 11 percent lower relative risk of violence. In addition, the researcher found a similar reduction in coercive controlling behavior toward wives.

Interestingly, marriage to a paternal cousin reduced the risk of physical violence more than marriage to a maternal cousin. Thus, it appears that the protective effect stems from the authority of the man's relatives over men, rather than from the spouse's kinship itself. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
Society, Genetics, and the Impact of Consanguineous Marriages: At the Intersection of Education and Heredity
Cousin is not just a delicacy, but also a hindrance to social success

AI and E. coli, side by side — what a ride!

The Finnish media Helsingin Sanomat (HS) reported this morning that artificial intelligence, or language models, reflect the values of their developers. The article was based on the same questions that HS has asked candidates from different political parties in connection with elections. This made it possible to compare the language models with the parties and their values.

Most language models lean toward value liberalism and the left – among Finnish political parties, the closest equivalents are mainly the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Greens, and the Swedish People’s Party (RKP). The Finns Party (Perussuomalaiset), by contrast, is the furthest away.

When reading this news story, it is worth remembering that people probably do not ask language models very much about values, but rather about various facts. As far as those are concerned, current language models are, at least in my own experience, quite reliable.

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Yesterday, I also happened to read a scientific paper about a completely new kind of AI-based approach in which Paul Ahavi and his colleagues used E. coli bacteria as a living information processor by analyzing their natural growth responses in plasma samples from COVID-19 patients. This was done without genetic modification or specialized equipment.

In practice, the researchers classified early-stage plasma samples from COVID-19 patients according to how severe the disease subsequently became. The classification was based solely on bacterial growth data and was analyzed using machine learning, or artificial intelligence.

The study showed that AI could analyze the effects of metabolites in patients’ plasma on the growth of E. coli and link those effects to the subsequent progression of the disease. In other words, by analyzing bacterial growth, it was able to distinguish a disease that would develop into a mild case from one that would become severe – essentially determining who would recover from the infection on their own and who would require treatment.

Based on their results the researchers concluded that “these findings position biological reservoir computing as a robust, scalable, and low-cost platform for intelligent biosensing, diagnostics, and hybrid bio-digital computation, while providing new mechanistic insights into the computational capabilities of living systems.”

The ability of the combination of E. coli and AI to predict the progression of COVID-19 was roughly as accurate as what can be achieved with precise – and extremely expensive – biochemical measurements. This means that the combination would seemingly offer a vastly cheaper way of analyzing large numbers of patients in connection with a wide variety of epidemics – and potentially even in developing countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Rain Scald: The Future of a New Sexually Transmitted Disease
Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?

Neanderthals Mated with Denisovans, Exceeded Modern Human Diversity

Neanderthals and Denisovans were prehistoric humans who interbred to some extent also with members of the human lineage that led to modern humans. In this context, an international research team – Diyendo Massilani and colleagues – has now published the entire genome extracted from DNA isolated from a Neanderthal fossil that lived about 110,000 years ago. This is the first male genome determined from this species.

The Neanderthal man in question had died in Denisova Cave in the Altai Mountains, the same location where Denisovans also lived at times. According to the research group’s results, the man belonged to a human group that was more closely related to another Neanderthal found in the same cave, who had lived about 10,000 years earlier, than to his counterparts in Europe or to a Neanderthal from another cave in the Altai Mountains who lived about 80,000 years ago.

The genomes of both Neanderthals from Denisova Cave that have now been sequenced contained genes originating from Denisovans, indicating that the species interbred with each other at least in the Altai region more than 100,000 years ago. This was surprising, because later Neanderthals from the Altai region or from Western Europe show no evidence of such interbreeding.

Based on DNA – specifically the extent of homozygous chromosomal regions – it was also possible to conclude that Neanderthals living in the Altai region 120,000–80,000 years ago lived in smaller and more isolated groups than later European Neanderthals (54,000–40,000 years ago). In addition, the researchers observed that the genome sequences of Neanderthals belonging to these populations differed from each other more than the genomes of the most genetically distant modern human populations (the Mbuti of Central Africa and the Highland Papuans of New Guinea).

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The study I have briefly described above is unlikely to be directly applicable for commercial purposes. Instead, it satisfies our curiosity and fulfills our need for knowledge: the opening up of the ancient world is undeniably fascinating.

Perhaps even more important than curiosity and the desire for knowledge, however, is that as science advances, humanity’s awareness of itself and of the world increases. And over time, this influences the way we see ourselves and the world we live in.

It is, of course, true that this perspective does not affect all people in the world equally: there is a significant difference, for example, in how the Taliban in Afghanistan and secularized Europeans perceive the world. Whereas the former are guided by the writings of a prophet and war leader who lived in the 7th century, the latter make their everyday decisions based on modern scientific knowledge—though usually without explicitly realizing it.

The contribution of paleogenomics—the field represented by the study described above—may not be decisive in this broader picture, but it is not negligible either. Awareness of the lives of our ancient relatives in small, isolated populations, their interbreeding with each other—and with our ancestors—and the extinction of those lineages provides important context for understanding present-day humanity and its peoples.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Surprising Story of Europe’s Hippos
The Historical Merging of Human Groups
American black population more vulnerable to the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2

Gender Reassignment May Not Help—and Could Even Worsen Mental Health

According to a recent Finnish study, adolescents referred for care due to gender identity exhibited significantly higher psychiatric morbidity than controls both before referral (45.7% vs. 15.0%) and at least two years after referral (61.7% vs. 14.6%). In addition, those referred after 2010 had greater psychiatric care needs than earlier cohorts both before referral (47.9% vs. 15.3%) and at least two years after referral (61.3% vs. 14.2%).

Among adolescents who underwent medical gender reassignment, psychiatric morbidity increased markedly during follow-up—rising from 9.8% to 60.7% in feminizing gender reassignment and from 21.6% to 54.5% in masculinizing gender reassignment. After adjusting for prior psychiatric treatment, all adolescents referred for gender identity-related care had similarly elevated risks of psychiatric morbidity, with hazard ratios approximately three times higher than female controls and five times higher than male controls.

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Based on the study, the authors—Sami-Matti Ruuska and his colleagues—concluded that adolescents referred for gender identity-related care exhibit a high level of psychiatric morbidity. In addition, gender differences and mental health trajectories after medical gender reassignment remain poorly understood.

A particularly notable observation was that adolescents referred for gender identity-related care had clearly higher psychiatric morbidity than controls, and this did not change as a result of treatment. On the contrary, the need persisted and often even intensified after medical interventions, some of which appeared to have even negative effects.

The researchers therefore emphasized the need for thorough psychiatric assessment and continuous treatment throughout the process of medical gender reassignment. However, they did not go so far as to state that the entire process is—at least generally—unnecessary or, at worst, even harmful.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing
Javier Milei and the Great Western Opportunity
A Fair Game or Unfair Judgment?

EU Carbon Sink Policy Lacks Cost-Effectiveness

Norwegian researchers Maarit Kallio and Elias Garvik published a study on the carbon sink policy of the EU and Norway (hereafter Europe), in which achieving forest sink targets would require an immediate and steep reduction in roundwood harvesting in Europe. This reduction could amount to 113–117 million cubic meters in the years 2030–2035 compared to a market-driven scenario, meaning that the costs of emission reductions would rise to more than €700 per tonne of carbon dioxide.

According to the researchers, this would simultaneously result in roughly two-thirds of Europe’s reduction in harvesting being offset by increased tree felling elsewhere in the world, particularly in North America, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Chile. In other words, restricting forest harvesting would ultimately lead to a massive transfer of income from Europe to the rest of the world without delivering significant climate benefits.

In addition, the researchers found that although harvesting restrictions would increase forest carbon sinks, their overall impact on the climate would remain limited because the climate benefits of wood products would simultaneously be lost. At the same time, economic activity in our continent would decline and significant income transfers to outside Europe would occur.

Thus, the cost per tonne of emissions saved—due to the economic burden placed on Europeans—would be many times higher than the prices used in the European Emissions Trading System.

This simply means that, in its current form, Europe’s carbon sink policy is not a cost-effective mitigation measure compared to other available options. Europe should therefore promptly abandon its current—naïve and ineffective—carbon sink policy, as it is simply irrational.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The EU Needs Innovations That Drive Climate Neutrality
Misleading Claims About European Forests
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuoreen tutkimuksen mukaan EU:n hiilinielupolitiikka on järjetöntä

To Be or Not to Be Woke – A Question of Worldview and Mental Health

In Finland’s largest daily newspaper there was an article that discussed right-wing and left-wing “wokeness.” According to the interviewed specialist researcher from the University of Turku, Oskari Lehtinen, right-wing woke activists (which, to be honest, I had never heard of before) were united by the views that their country’s population is being deliberately replaced, society discriminates against white people, a good ruler breaks rules in order to safeguard national interests, conservative values should determine which forms of expression are permitted and which are forbidden, and ordinary people know better what is good for the country than educated experts.

Left-wing woke activists, in turn, were united by views according to which income differences between white and non-white people are explained mainly by racism, trans women should be allowed to compete in women’s sports categories, society should have more safe spaces, racism is more of a structural phenomenon than something visible in individuals’ actions, and focusing on skin color is generally necessary for advancing human rights.

The newspaper article included a link to a test from a few years ago that allowed you to measure your own level of wokeness. As a curious person, I took it, and my result was 3/30 points along with the comment that “you are not very woke.” This did not surprise me.

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In connection with that test, some interesting things were reported. One of them—though less surprising—was that among university students, the strongest woke attitudes were found in the humanities and social sciences as well as psychology. Among students, wokeness was least common among those studying the natural sciences, while among teachers the least enamored with this ideology were business scholars.

It was also not a surprise to me personally that people who hold a woke worldview are more depressed and anxious than others. In addition, they are less happy than others. According to the woke researcher, however, this is a correlation rather than a cause-and-effect relationship, so we do not know whether wokeness leads to mental health problems or vice versa.

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It would be great if Lehtinen’s future research were to produce information about the causal relationship between a woke worldview and mental health, as that would be quite useful. It is clear that if wokeness produces mental health problems such as depression and anxiety and, in addition, reduces people’s happiness, that would be a justified reason to stop presenting this ideology in a positive light in media.

If, on the other hand, further research were to show that the causal relationship runs the other way—that is, that wokeness is a way of identifying people suffering from mental health problems—then its supporters could be easily identified and directed to mental health services, and, if necessary, provided with psychiatric support that would help them live happier lives than they do now.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Gender identity and the future of Finnishness
Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing
Unintended Consequences of Modern Value Shifts

The original blogpost in Finnish: 
Tieteellistä tietoa wokelluksesta

The Surprising Story of Europe’s Hippos

Hippopotamuses are the largest land animals living today after elephants and rhinoceroses. Today, the species occurs only in Africa, but remains have also been found in Europe.

They have been assumed to originate from the last interglacial period. This assumption is based on the fact that the hippopotamus is considered an indicator species of temperate climates and is thought to have gone extinct north of the Mediterranean at the onset of the Weichselian glaciation around 115,000 years ago.

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A recent study by Patrik Arnold and his colleagues has now brought surprising new insights concerning European hippopotamuses. The researchers analyzed Central European hippopotamuses by sequencing the genome of one individual, which revealed a close genetic relationship between these animals and modern African hippopotamuses.

In addition, they determined six other partial mitochondrial genomes, which confirmed that the European fossils belonged to the same species as present-day African hippopotamuses. The species therefore once had a much wider distribution than today and was not always restricted to sub-Saharan Africa.

The researchers also conducted radiocarbon dating of the fossils and were greatly surprised to discover that they were much more recent than previously believed. The remains dated to the middle phase of the Weichselian glaciation, a period beginning before 47,000 years ago and ending around 31,000 years ago—that is, during the later stages of the last Ice Age.

Because radiocarbon dates of woolly mammoth and woolly rhinoceros fossils from the same sites fall within the same time range, these animals also inhabited Europe at that time. Consequently, the fauna of our continent was very different from what had previously been assumed or from what we know today.

The researchers also analyzed genetic variation in the now fully sequenced hippopotamus genome and found its genetic diversity to be low. It is therefore likely that this individual belonged to a small population that lived in isolation from other hippopotamuses.

Previous thoughts on related topics:
Deep Roots of Violence and Disregard for Human Dignity in History
The Dire Wolf and the Rights of Extinct Human Species
The Historical Merging of Human Groups

Are Coral Reefs Doomed Within the Next Few Years?

A recent science news report stated that, according to a study signed by 160 researchers, the destruction of coral reefs is now almost certainly irreversible. The report says that most coral reefs will die once global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

At present, the climate has warmed by 1.4 degrees, according to scientists, which means that the temperature leading to the irreversible collapse of reefs is expected to be reached within the next few years. When that happens, for example, the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica are likely to collapse.

And that’s not all — according to the lead author of the report, Tim Lenton, one of the tipping points involves the collapse of existing ocean currents, which would have catastrophic consequences. If this were to occur in the ocean circulation system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it would disrupt the global climate and, among other effects, cool the winters of Finland and the rest of Europe.

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I wanted to highlight this topic because the report provides a clear prediction — one that will be fascinating, if admittedly frightening, to follow in the coming years. It’s especially intriguing because the timeframe mentioned is “in the next few years,” which to my ears sounds more like less than ten years rather than more. At the very least, it doesn’t imply waiting several decades, as shown by the chart published a couple of years ago by the University of Berkeley, which I’ve copied below.

So, I’ll try to remember to follow this issue in the coming years — and to report on it here in this blog, unless I become too senile before the coral reef catastrophe actually happens.

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Before that, however, it’s worth recalling a study from last year which found that coral reef restoration can accelerate the recovery of coral cover and carbonate production so rapidly that the reefs’ net carbonate budgets resemble those of healthy reefs within just four years. And this occurs under the current climate, which is already 1.4 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

And that’s not all — this year another study was published showing that there are also coral reefs that are recovering. At least some can be found in the Chagos Archipelago, where coral cover on both the fore-reef and the lagoon increased by 59–67% after several years of bleaching.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this change of direction is only temporary — or whether it will prove to be permanent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuhoutuvatko koralliriutat lähivuosina?

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

Sex and Gender Identity in Skiing

The International Ski Federation (FIS) has decided to test the gender of women participating in competitions. According to its president, Johan Eliasch, “this policy is the cornerstone of our commitment to protect women’s sport, and we are convinced that there is only one fair and transparent way to do that: by relying on science and biological facts.”

I’m eagerly waiting to see whether this statement sparks protests among so-called woke people, who are often heard claiming that humans have a vast number of different genders. Eliasch’s comment, however, seems to rest on the assumption that there are only two: male and female, determined by genes.

On the other hand—in my understanding—the overwhelming majority of people do recognize that while there may be numerous gender identities experienced by individuals, sex is ultimately a fact tied to reproduction. Those who are capable of fathering children are men, and those who are capable of giving birth are women. Everyone else represents exceptions to this rule, not distinct sexes.

As for the issue itself, it should simply be said that the FIS decision is exactly right for women’s sports, since hardly any reasonable spectator would want to see the same kind of farce on the ski tracks as was witnessed in the boxing rings at the Paris Olympics, where male violence against women was legalized and broadcast live on TV.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Feminists, Woke, and DEI People Justify Violence Against Women
UK Supreme Court Distinguishes Between the Rights of Women and Trans Women
Finnish Trans Woman Speaks Out on Transgender Rights in Sports

Challenging What We Think We Know: Wildfires Reveal the Power of Science

Large wildfires make headlines that spread across the world. This certainly does nothing to lessen the negative stigma attached to them.

That is why it was so interesting to come across a study examining the impact of wildfires in the western United States on air quality in other parts of the country. The researchers’ hypothesis was that wildfires would worsen air quality simply because of smoke transport.

However, the hypothesis turned out to be incorrect. Ma and colleagues showed that extreme wildfires in the West actually reduce fine particle concentrations in the eastern United States by roughly the same amount as they increase them in the West.

This surprising result was explained by the fact that heat-induced convection from the fires weakens eastward transport of smoke and enhances the removal of air pollutants through precipitation. In fact, this mechanism reduces human mortality and economic losses nationwide!

Of course, it is welcome news that the health effects of wildfires may not be as dramatic as feared. Yet in my view, the real lesson of this study lies elsewhere. It once again demonstrates that ordinary and seemingly logical assumptions people make do not necessarily correspond to reality. At the same time, it helps to highlight why systematic science is very likely one of humanity’s most important institutions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
Scientific misconduct on prevailing theories is too attractive

Love and a Regurgitated Gift

In the world of fruit flies, romance can take surprising forms. The species Drosophila subobscura has a peculiar courtship ritual: before mating, a male must win over the female by giving her a gift. But instead of flowers or chocolates, he offers her a tiny mouth-to-mouth meal of regurgitated food. Interestingly, their close cousin Drosophila melanogaster—the fruit fly most often used in laboratories—doesn’t do this at all.

So what makes one species a generous suitor while the other skips the gift exchange? Japanese researchers discovered that the difference comes down to a single gene, called FruitlessM (FruM), which helps wire male brains for courtship behavior. In D. subobscura, this gene switches on in a group of brain cells that regulate feeding. When FruM is missing, the cells don’t grow the connections they need, and the males fail to present their nuptial gift.

Even more intriguing, when scientists turned on FruM in the same brain cells of D. melanogaster, something remarkable happened: the cells sprouted new connections, and the males began regurgitating food more often—hinting at a hidden potential for gift-giving buried in their biology.

This research shows how a small genetic change can spark big differences in behavior between species. What looks like a simple act of food sharing is, in fact, the product of evolutionary history written deep in the wiring of the brain.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Preventing future fires in Hawaii is possible, but the question remains: Are animal activists and politicians prepared for the necessary measures?
Seeing sex developed novel cultures

Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed

Today, climate change is a scientific dogma—questioning it is no longer seen as acceptable. But this wasn’t always the case. According to a recent American study, the effect of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere’s ability to retain heat wasn’t understood until the mid-19th century.

At the same time, the use of fossil fuels began rapidly increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels, but it would still take a long time before the phenomenon even became a subject of scientific concern—let alone the broad societal issue it is today, influencing a vast range of topics.

The study in question explored when climate change could have been detected if 19th-century scientists had access to today’s climate models and observational networks. To do this, the researchers assumed that by the year 1860, it would have been possible to make precise measurements of atmospheric temperature changes. They then determined when a human-caused climate signal would have become detectable.

According to the report, significant cooling of the middle to upper stratosphere—primarily caused by rising levels of CO₂ from human activity—would have been clearly detectable by around 1885. That’s during the height of European imperialism, and well before the invention of gasoline-powered cars.

These findings could have been made based on the favorable signal-to-noise ratio in the mid- to upper stratosphere, where the human-induced cooling is strong and displays distinct patterns that differ clearly from natural variability.

The researchers noted that atmospheric measurement capabilities in 1860 were far from global; high-quality stratospheric temperature measurements would have only existed for mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, human-caused stratospheric cooling still would have been detectable by 1894—nearly a decade before the Wright brothers’ first flight.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
National Identity in Stone: Finland’s Ancient Crust Meets Canada’s Hadean Record 
Why Did the Cause of Pierce’s Disease in Grapevines Spread to Europe Only in 2013?
Availability of coffee in a warming world

National Identity in Stone: Finland’s Ancient Crust Meets Canada’s Hadean Record

The Earth began to form 4.7 billion years ago, when planetesimals—formed from material left over from the birth of the Sun—started to attract particles from the surrounding space and gradually gave rise to planets. This process eventually led, around 4.6 billion years ago, to the birth of the rocky planet on which I am writing this text.

This information was once taught to Finns of my generation. At the same time, we were told—in a spirit of patriotic pride—that Finland’s bedrock is extremely old, up to three billion years in age, though this is unlikely to be emphasized in the same way to today’s youth, who are more often guided to see themselves as global citizens.

This remains true, as the oldest known rock in Finland is about 3.5 billion years old. It is located slightly north of Finland’s geographical center, in the municipality of Pudasjärvi.

There is very little direct information about the Earth’s earliest crust, because rocks and minerals from the Hadean eon (>4.03 billion years old) are extremely rare. Even so, the age of the rock material in Pudasjärvi pales in comparison to that of the Canadian bedrock.

This is because, according to recent Canadian research, the Nuvvuagittuq Greenstone Belt in Canada has been dated to as much as about 4.156 billion years old. This means that this bedrock formed during the Earth’s earliest geologic eon, the Hadean. Studying this Canadian rock thus offers us rare and valuable insight into what the newborn Earth might have been like.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Evolution Doesn’t Just Create New Species – It Can Also Reverse It

Control of Douglas fir beetles by woodborer beetles

Wildfires and bark beetles have interacted for centuries—and even millennia—to shape diverse and resilient forest ecosystems. However, the record-breaking wildfires of recent years in western North America have raised concerns that the vast areas of damaged and dead trees—essentially easily exploitable resources—might promote the growth of insect populations.

The Douglas-fir beetle, the primary mortality agent of Douglas-fir trees, often experiences population increases following wildfires. The same applies to many other phloem-feeding insects, such as various woodboring beetles, which are attracted to burned areas and colonize fire-injured trees.

In a recent study, Canadian researchers investigated the interactions between Douglas-fir beetles and woodboring beetles that exploit the phloem of fire-injured trees. More specifically, their hypothesis was that the rapid colonization of bark beetle niches by woodborers following wildfires might restrict Douglas-fir beetle population growth through interspecific competition beneath the bark.

The hypothesis was tested in three mature Douglas-fir forests in British Columbia that burned in 2017. The researchers found that both Douglas-fir beetles and woodborers preferentially colonized mature stands containing large-diameter trees with moderate fire damage.

When woodborers were absent, the Douglas-fir beetle’s reproductive rate was sufficient to cause a local population outbreak. In contrast, in stands where woodborers were abundant (more than 50% of trees infested), Douglas-fir beetles were unable to reproduce at outbreak levels.

These results indicate that competition from woodboring beetles can significantly limit Douglas-fir beetle outbreaks in fire-injured forests. From a forest management perspective, this suggests that forests should be managed in ways that support the success of economically harmless phloem-feeding insects—such as many woodboring beetle species—since their presence may help reduce the risk of bark beetle outbreaks following wildfires.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The EU Needs Innovations That Drive Climate Neutrality
Forests in Indonesia and Finland
Why are boreal forest fires on the rise everywhere but in Finland?

Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research

Stokes and his colleagues have published a study indicating that by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by as much as a centimeter per year due to the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This would happen even in the case where humanity manages to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Such a development would mean sea level rise of several meters over the coming centuries.

As a result, people living in coastal areas would need to be relocated, and buildings and other infrastructure built along the coasts would end up submerged. According to the study, a massive transformation lies ahead globally.

This study caught my attention, of course, for the reasons I briefly mentioned above. But also because Chinese researchers Wang, Shen and others have observed that between 2021 and 2023, the melting of the Antarctic seems to have turned into a net gain in ice mass.

This suggests that the results of different researchers are in some degree of contradiction. That, of course, is not unusual—let alone unique—in the scientific world, but it does offer an interesting topic to follow in the coming years.

It could be, of course, that the future projections made by Stokes and his colleagues based on a synthesis approach contain errors—or alternatively, that the increase in Antarctic ice mass observed by Wang and Shen is merely a temporary anomaly within the broader process of ice loss.

Time will tell—if not for us, then for future generations—whether we are facing a catastrophe for the world’s coastal cities or whether the effects of greenhouse gas emissions turn out to be less severe than current research suggests.

For those reflecting on the matter, a reasonable suggestion would be to monitor the changes in Antarctic temperatures over time. For example, according to data from the Vostok Station, located in the interior of the continent and operational since 1958, the warmest years there have been 2007 and 1980. The average temperature in 2007 was -52.60°C, and in 1980 it was -53.02°C.

At those temperatures, ice is unlikely to melt at Vostok—but things are different along the coast. For instance, at Casey Station, which has been operational since 1957, the highest annual average temperature on record was measured in 1980, at -6.55°C. That’s not warm enough to melt ice either, but during the summer months—December and January—average temperatures at Casey rose above freezing.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
The amazing adventures of the German cockroach

Evolution Doesn’t Just Create New Species – It Can Also Reverse It

When Charles Darwin pondered how a single species could, over time, become two distinct ones, he realized that natural selection could act differently on separate populations, gradually driving them apart. This insight was so powerful that it gave rise to an entirely new scientific field: evolutionary biology.

To this day, the emergence of new species remains a central concept in evolutionary biology, and understanding the mechanisms behind it is one of the field’s key research questions. At the same time, hybridisation between populations that have evolved in isolation can influence the pace of speciation—either speeding it up, slowing it down, or even reversing it altogether.

A recent study by Ingo Müller and colleagues delved into the evolutionary history of Melidectes, a bird genus found in New Guinea that includes six species living in various mountainous regions at different elevations. Most of these species occupy separate areas, but two of them meet and hybridise in the central mountain range.

Despite this overlap, scientists had assumed that differences in plumage and adaptations to elevation would help maintain clear species boundaries. However, Müller and his team used genomic and genetic analyses to show that these visible differences do not, in fact, prevent gene flow between the two species. On the contrary, the researchers discovered that their genes are mixing extensively across most of their shared range.

This makes the bird community formed by these two species quite unusual. It follows a pattern where the most genetically distinct and least interbreeding populations are found at the geographical edges of their ranges. Remarkably, this is the case even though their maternally inherited mitochondrial genomes still sort neatly into two deeply divergent lineages, consistent with their traditional species identities.

These findings led the researchers to conclude that the two incipient species have recently begun to merge—possibly due to increased contact brought on by climate warming—resulting in nearly complete fusion into a single lineage. In other words, a speciation process that was well underway has now stalled, and the two almost-species appear to be on the path to becoming one unified species again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Dire Wolf and the Rights of Extinct Human Species
Shower Taking and Interfering Elephants
The fundamentals of conservation biology wavered

From Sugar to Sweeteners—And into the Fire?

Noncaloric sweeteners are widely used in foods and beverages to provide a sweet taste without the calories of sucrose. However, some studies suggest that these sweeteners may stimulate appetite—essentially leading from the frying pan into the fire.

Chakravartti and colleagues sought to investigate this by giving 75 young adults a drink containing either sucralose, sucrose, or water. To study the effects, they used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine how the consumed drink affected the hypothalamus—a brain structure that plays a key role in regulating appetite.

Compared to sucrose, consuming the noncaloric sweetener increased blood flow to the hypothalamus and triggered stronger hunger responses. The results highlight the complexity of the neural mechanisms that regulate appetite and indicate that replacing sugar with noncaloric sweeteners is not a straightforward solution to obesity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Shower Taking and Interfering Elephants
Traditional beliefs turned out to be wisdom
Microbial solution to malnutrition?