Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research

Stokes and his colleagues have published a study indicating that by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by as much as a centimeter per year due to the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This would happen even in the case where humanity manages to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Such a development would mean sea level rise of several meters over the coming centuries.

As a result, people living in coastal areas would need to be relocated, and buildings and other infrastructure built along the coasts would end up submerged. According to the study, a massive transformation lies ahead globally.

This study caught my attention, of course, for the reasons I briefly mentioned above. But also because Chinese researchers Wang, Shen and others have observed that between 2021 and 2023, the melting of the Antarctic seems to have turned into a net gain in ice mass.

This suggests that the results of different researchers are in some degree of contradiction. That, of course, is not unusual—let alone unique—in the scientific world, but it does offer an interesting topic to follow in the coming years.

It could be, of course, that the future projections made by Stokes and his colleagues based on a synthesis approach contain errors—or alternatively, that the increase in Antarctic ice mass observed by Wang and Shen is merely a temporary anomaly within the broader process of ice loss.

Time will tell—if not for us, then for future generations—whether we are facing a catastrophe for the world’s coastal cities or whether the effects of greenhouse gas emissions turn out to be less severe than current research suggests.

For those reflecting on the matter, a reasonable suggestion would be to monitor the changes in Antarctic temperatures over time. For example, according to data from the Vostok Station, located in the interior of the continent and operational since 1958, the warmest years there have been 2007 and 1980. The average temperature in 2007 was -52.60°C, and in 1980 it was -53.02°C.

At those temperatures, ice is unlikely to melt at Vostok—but things are different along the coast. For instance, at Casey Station, which has been operational since 1957, the highest annual average temperature on record was measured in 1980, at -6.55°C. That’s not warm enough to melt ice either, but during the summer months—December and January—average temperatures at Casey rose above freezing.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
The amazing adventures of the German cockroach

Greenland's Future: A Battleground of Global Powers?

The future president of the United States, Donald Trump, has threatened either to buy Greenland from Denmark or even to seize it by military force. The latter threat, in particular, does not sound like something a leader of a friendly nation would say.

This has also drawn attention in the European Union. For example, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that it is clear the EU will not allow any country, whoever they may be, to violate its sovereign borders.

Such discussions among NATO allies obviously serve only one purpose: to advance the goals of Russia and China against the Western world. Therefore, it must be asked whether Trump fails to grasp the implications of his words or if he is genuinely under the influence of China and/or Russia.

However, I am not sure which scenario would be worse—a foolish president of a Western superpower or a puppet of states hostile to the West. For this reason, I hope that Trump’s words will ultimately turn out to be nothing more than empty bluster.

* * *

Greenland’s status as part of Denmark is not necessarily straightforward, as the island's Prime Minister, Múte B. Egede, also addressed the matter in his New Year’s speech. According to him, it is time for the island to “break the chains of colonialism” and take responsibility for its own future.

Considering that Greenland has vast natural resources but fewer than 60,000 inhabitants, I do not find this comment particularly wise. Not because those people couldn’t live well on their island, but because as an independent nation, it would be both highly attractive and defenseless.

It is therefore obvious that, in addition to the United States, both China and Russia would be extremely interested in bringing Greenland into their sphere of influence. For this reason, the Greenlandic Prime Minister’s comment must also be regarded as unequivocally foolish—especially in today’s world, where it seems a new Cold War has begun.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
Former President Donald Trump is Also the Upcoming President – But What Does It Mean?
Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine

Ice Sheet Losses in Antarctica and Greenland

CNN reported that the rapid ice loss of the Thwaites Glacier is set to speed up this century. The retreat of this glacier has accelerated considerably over the past 30 years. Even worse, according to the article, scientists project that Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse within 200 years, which would have devastating consequences.

Such a development would, of course, be extremely concerning, and that’s why I decided to look into how temperatures in Antarctica have evolved. For that, I searched NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies website for all available time series of Antarctic temperatures that began before the 1960s.

I’ve copied the graphs I found below, starting with Vostok and Amundsen-Scott, located in the central part of the continent, followed by the stations on the continent’s edge, beginning from the boundary of the eastern and western hemispheres and moving westward (like the sun).

My dear reader can draw their own conclusions from the series of images I have copied above. As for me, I do not plan on losing sleep over the CNN article that inspired this writing.

* * *

Speaking of glaciers: it occurred to me that I had read a study by Rebecca Adam McPherson and colleagues, who work in Germany, suggesting that the melting of Greenland’s 79 North glacier, which flows into the ocean, has slowed somewhat in recent years.

While investigating this phenomenon, the researchers found that the water temperatures beneath the glacier’s ice shelf cooled between 2018 and 2021. According to the researchers, this was due to a slowdown in the North Atlantic circulation and the cooling of Atlantic intermediate waters.

This, in turn, was the result of a phenomenon observed in Europe’s atmosphere, where cold Arctic air flowed south through the Fram Strait. This phenomenon is by no means new to science; it has caused other ocean cooling events over the past half-century and will continue to be a key factor in the development of glaciers in northeastern Greenland.

As I read the study, it naturally occurred to me whether this same phenomenon could also explain why Arctic sea ice has not melted since 2013. If so, the melting of sea ice should resume sooner rather than later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness
Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions
Climate Model Predictions and the Reality of Arctic Sea Ice

Medieval trade ranged from North America to Ukraine

We all know that the Vikings were the first Europeans to land in North America. In addition, they had settlements in Greenland where no trees grow. Therefore, the Norse people, who lived in Greenland from AD 985 to 1450, relied on imports, mostly from Northern Europe, for various materials, including iron. 

Now a new investigation of ancient pieces of wood has revealed that at least 26 out of over 8 500 wood remnants found in five Norse sites in western Greenland came from trees that could not have reached Greenland solely through the natural action of tides and waves. The researchers from the University of Iceland examined the microscopic structure of the 800 years old wood remnants and concluded that the imported timber, which included species like hemlock and Jack pine, originated from mainland North America.

This discovery challenges the previous belief that Norse people exclusively imported materials from northern Europe. It suggests that they were, in fact, importing materials from the northeastern coast of mainland North America for a longer duration than previously assumed. 

Furthermore, it indicates that the Norse people had established trade connections and actively imported resources not only from distant locations within Europe but also maintained long-distance connections extending to the west. As a result, their international trade network spanned from what is now Ukraine to North America.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Long distance trade
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Vikings and the technological cutting edge

Long distance trade

We often think that ancient people lived in separation with little contacts to humans living in other parts of the world. This view is, however, incorrect because trade has been more or less global for thousands of years.

I wrote in May about ivory trade between Greenland and what is today Ukraine in medieval times. And last week I noticed a new scientific investigation showing that a Late Bronze Age shipwreck - from 3 300 years ago - found off the Turkish coast carried tin ingots, of which one third was produced of ores from Central Asia, thousands of kilometers from shipwrecks location. 

The finding added evidence on a vast, disparate and culturally diverse network of trade that relied as much on the participation of small regional communities as on large, centralized states during the Late Bronze Age. And which formed a basis for the economic development that ultimately - during the following millenia - led to the current world based on global trade and cultural exchange forming the basis of the current way of living throughout the world.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A new route for the Ukrainian crops
Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine
Vikings and the technological cutting edge

Ivory trade from Greenland to Ukraine

Vikings settled on the uninhabited southwestern coast of Greenland thousand years ago. That was enabled by a technological innovation that allowed them to use wooden ships in long distance sailing. However, after just few centuries the early settlements along the southwestern coast disappeared. 

The reason for the disappearance of Norse has thereafter remained a mystery. The explanations presented include cumulative environmental damage, gradual climate change, conflicts with Inuit peoples, loss of contact and support from Europe, cultural conservatism and failure to adapt to an increasingly harsh natural environment and opening of opportunities elsewhere after the black death had left many farmsteads abandoned in Iceland and Norway as well as declining value of ivory in Europe.

The last option was based on the fact that some Vikings are known to have organised summer trips to the more northerly area, where they hunted walruses, narwhals and polar bears for their skins, hides and ivory. Besides their use in making garments and shoes, these resources also functioned as a form of currency, as well as providing the most important export commoditie.

Recently it was reported in Science that Vikings shipped walrus ivory all the way to Kyiv, the capital of today´s Ukraine. This trade route is much longer than was thought based on previous studies - up to 4 000 km. This information was worked out by DNA and chemical analyses, which linked Ukrainian walrus tusk materials to a genetic group of walruses found only in the western Atlantic Ocean. 

The trade was obviously highly profitable, and may have lead to overhunting of Greenlandic walruses, due to the consumer demand in Eastern Europe. That seems to strengthen the hypothesis that Norse settlers abandoned Greenland in the 1300s at least partly due to the ending ivory trade.

This finding is just one of the historical facts that shows how medieval people had connections over long distances. And partially highlights how incorrect we are, if we consider our time as completely unique in its global connections and trade. Instead of qualitative differences, the change is only quantitative. That is, in the speed that allows us to make contacts throughout the world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
World oceans are filled with previously unknown viruses
Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining
Vikings and the technological cutting edge