Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine led to some rather interesting perspectives, as Donald Trump called for an end to the war along the current front lines — and Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to accept the idea. According to the latter, “we must stop where we are — he is right, the President is right.”

At the same time, Trump announced that he was not ready to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which could be used to destroy Russian military and infrastructure targets deep inside the country. Not, at least, before he meets with Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Before the meeting, Zelenskyy stated that security guarantees are the most important issue for Ukraine. However, Finnish media, the BBC, USA Today, and CBS did not report on what the presidents discussed regarding those guarantees. According to Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, support for Ukraine remains strong and “includes military and economic assistance, security guarantees, a ceasefire, and a peace process.”

It therefore remains to be seen how Putin will respond in Hungary to a peace initiative that he could, if he wished, present to his people as some kind of victory. Yet compared with his previous statements, such an outcome would clearly be a failure — one that has already resulted in more than a million Russians being killed or disabled.

Thus, peace along the current front lines would be an obvious risk for Putin, since it is impossible to predict in advance which narrative — victory or failure — would ultimately prevail in the minds of Russians. And what might follow from that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

Houthi Leaders Risk Their Lives to Cling to Power

Last Thursday, the Israeli armed forces killed Yemen’s Houthi administration Prime Minister Ahmed Ghalib al-Rahawi, Foreign Minister Jamal Amer, and ten other ministers — more than half of Yemen’s government members — in a precise airstrike. Such an outcome is undeniably impressive, and it could not have arisen by chance as if in a fairytale.

In this case too, the strike was preceded by weeks of intelligence gathering involving around 200 military intelligence professionals. The group worked in a secret bunker located in Israel and also included representatives of the United States military.

The actual attack was carried out by Israeli fighter jets just a few hours after the intelligence team had confirmed the meeting place of the Yemeni government. At that moment, the Yemeni ministers had just gathered to listen to the speech of spiritual and military leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who, fortunately for him, was speaking via remote connection and thus preserved his life.

For the time being, the broader impact of the successful strike remains uncertain, but it seems that the Houthi administration is trying to hold on to its position. In doing so, its members are taking an enormous risk of another Israeli and U.S. strike, which, if successful, could cost them their lives. In any case, it is clear that the intelligence services of these states will do their utmost to succeed again.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Power Change Hands in Iran?
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Greta Thunberg in Search of a Greater Thrill

Swedish Greta Thunberg originally became known as a teenage climate activist with Asperger's syndrome, supported by her ambitious parents. As she has grown older, she has evolved into a professional activist who makes a living by staging various stunts — in her view — for good causes.

Currently, there is a sailing mission underway, followed by journalists from around the world. The idea is to deliver a small shipment of food to Gaza, which, in the bigger picture, is unlikely to have any significant impact. What is essential, however, is that Thunberg once again gains media visibility — something she consistently seems to achieve successfully.

This time, however, her actions involve a greater-than-usual risk, as Israel has prohibited the delivery of aid to the territory it occupies. This is due to previous aid shipments having partly ended up in the hands of terrorists, thereby functioning as a channel of funding for them.

If and when Thunberg's group attempts to forcibly reach Gaza’s coast, it is possible that Israel will resort to strong measures to stop them. According to Finnish professor Hannu Juusola, the situation could escalate so severely that lives may be lost.

Therefore, it is worth asking — if not Thunberg herself, then those behind her — whether personal media visibility is truly worth the potential loss of human life? Or is it indeed the case that an activist behaves like an addict, who must get their fix over and over again, each time seeking a greater thrill?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
How Hamas Exploited Aid and Lost the Support of Many Palestinians
The demands of the vandals
Preventing future fires in Hawaii is possible, but the question remains: Are animal activists and politicians prepared for the necessary measures?

Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?

A decision point has been reached regarding Russia's "shadow fleet" operating in the Baltic Sea. Estonia recently failed to stop one of the vessels after Russia offered it support from its air force. At the same time, two Portuguese F-16 fighter jets took to the skies from the nearby Ämari Air Base to support the Estonians—and in Finland, at least one F-18 fighter flew faster than the speed of sound for some reason, according to my own observation, although this has not been publicly acknowledged.

Fortunately, the incident did not escalate into an aerial battle, but it still shows that the risk of escalation over the Baltic Sea is very real. Thus, it is only a matter of time before some sort of confrontation occurs between Russia and NATO.

However, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has now announced: "A Russian ship from the 'shadow fleet' that is under sanctions carried out suspicious maneuvers near the power cable connecting Poland with Sweden. After a successful intervention by our military, the ship sailed off to one of the Russian ports. The ORP 'Heweliusz' is en route to the site of the incident."

It remains to be seen whether the successful interception of the vessel is a sign that even the Russians may have realized that protecting shadow fleet vessels with air support poses an enormous risk. And therefore, for now at least, they may have decided to refrain from such actions. At least, one can hope so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders

AfD Under Fire – But Is Democracy the Price?

The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has been classified as a far-right group. This conclusion was reached by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, which – according to Social Democratic Interior Minister Nancy Faeser – operated without "any political interference" during the process.

According to the background report justifying the classification, the assessment was based on the fact that AfD seeks to exclude certain population groups – particularly immigrants from Muslim-majority countries – from equal participation in society. The report states that "this is evident from numerous ongoing xenophobic, anti-minority, anti-Islamic, and anti-Muslim statements made by the party’s leading members."

This new classification is not insignificant – it could even lead to the banning of AfD. However, such a ban would not happen automatically. Moreover, it is already clear at this stage that AfD will take legal action against the new classification, accusing it of being politically motivated.

Personally, I am not taking a stance on AfD’s political line here, but it would be rather striking if as much as a quarter of people supported – without a justified reason – a far-right party in a country whose darkest historical chapters include the Nazi party and the Holocaust. Even more peculiar is the fact that no effort is being made to address the reasons behind the views of this quarter of the population. Instead, there appears to be an attempt to block a democratic – that is, electoral – path to solving the problem.

In fact, such an approach would not only be undemocratic but also dangerous. It is clear that if there is a real and fixable reason behind the growth in support for AfD, simply suppressing it will not eliminate the problem. On the contrary: in such a situation, there is a risk that a dissatisfied segment of the population might – at least partially – turn to undemocratic means.

Surely that would not be in the interests of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency? Or would it?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Good luck to Chancellor Friedrich Merz!
Too Many Finns Share Trump’s Inability to Comprehend
What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?

Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"

The Finnish news outlet MTV3 relayed a story from The Wall Street Journal, according to which Russia plans to move tens of thousands of troops closer to the Finnish border. This is all part of a broader reorganization of Russian forces, focusing on the directions of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Russia is also building a new railway near the borders of Finland, Norway, and Estonia, while simultaneously expanding existing routes. Naturally, this development is being closely watched in Finland.

A Finnish major interviewed in the article noted that "there are about a dozen places along the Finland–Russia border where mechanized forces can cross... If Russia is building new railways or upgrading old ones, it is important to pay attention to these developments."

Major General Sami Nurmi, for his part, pointed out that for the Russian military, size always matters. It is therefore no surprise that the plans are large-scale, as Putin’s dictatorship anticipates some form of conflict with NATO. 

This was confirmed by Russia’s Defense Minister Andrei Belusov, who stated that Russia must be ready for conflict with NATO. However, it remained unclear who might initiate such a conflict, as President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly insisted that Russia has no plans to attack NATO countries - but that may well be a bluff.

On the other hand, Ukrainians and many Westerners — myself included — fear that Russia may test NATO’s capabilities if its invasion of Ukraine concludes — even by their own interpretation — with some form of victory. This is a concern also voiced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

If the situation escalates, it must first be noted that Russian soldiers who have gained combat experience in Ukraine will form the new backbone of Russia’s army, which is a major advantage compared to the forces of Finland, Estonia, or the Baltic countries, who largely lack real combat experience.

Russian forces are also equipped with material that has been tested under real battlefield conditions, and it appears that their supplies are not running out, despite earlier assumptions. In fact, Russia was producing only about forty T-90M main battle tanks per year four years ago — today they are producing around 300 annually.

According to Finnish assessments, very few of these tanks are actually being sent to Ukraine. Even if they were, the current production lines would quickly replenish them, whereas European defense industries would first need to be rapidly scaled up before reaching comparable output levels.

* * *

Based on all this, it is clear that, first of all, European countries must come to an agreement on strengthening their defense capabilities. Not only that, but they must also prepare ready and functional plans for scaling up to mass production of military equipment if needed.

Secondly, EU countries and NATO should issue clear warnings to Russia against attacking their neighbors and commit to collective defense. This should be done both through NATO, emphasizing the significance of Article 5, and through bilateral agreements.

Finally, I would note that the Baltic countries are at the greatest risk, given their relatively weak military capabilities. In contrast, the armed forces of Finland and Poland are strong and serve as an effective deterrent against potential "special operations" across their borders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Russia Test NATO's Article Five?
Duck emphasizing the urgency of the new border law
Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia

Millions Defy Erdoğan – The Battle for Atatürk's Legacy Continues

According to the Turkish opposition, up to 2.2 million people gathered in Istanbul on Saturday to protest against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his dictatorial actions. Meanwhile, the government has banned demonstrations and arrested thousands of protesters.

What is essential here is that Turkey still has millions of people who are willing to put their own future at risk to defend the legacy of the country’s first president, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk—namely, the modernization and democratization of the nation.

Erdoğan, on the other hand, has undermined this legacy by leaning on Islamist forces, which have helped him secure an almost dictatorial position. At the same time, Turkey has gradually drifted toward its ideological past, falling into instability after a long period of economic growth. 

It remains to be seen whether Erdoğan’s administration will collapse and, if it does, whether its successor will restore Turkey to the path laid out by Atatürk. If that happens, Turkey may regain a leading position among Islamic countries and set an example for a better future.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Need for Asylum Among Syrians Disappeared with the Regime Change
The Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs apologized to the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs for the words of the woman who criticized the man who exposed his penis
What seemed to be impossible just two years ago is going to happen in very near future

Shifting U.S. Foreign Policy Sparks Concerns in Estonia

Changes in U.S. foreign policy have raised concerns about the future in Estonia. One indication of this is that former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Martin Herem, has noted that, much like before World War II, "agreements are once again being made over our heads. In Estonia, we are like small change, as the Americans might concede to Russian demands. For instance, Russia could demand that Estonia no longer hold military exercises with more than 5,000 troops."

Additionally, he pointed out the fact that "we are unable to defend ourselves alone, which is why we have needed U.S. support. We have grown accustomed to it. But as U.S. capabilities are currently diminishing, we Europeans must take matters into our own hands."

* * *

Finnish military expert Emil Kastehelmi reinforced Herem’s perspective, noting that the Baltic states would not be able to defend themselves for long without strong external support—especially if Russia decided to exert significant military force in the region.

However, according to Kastehelmi, "small border skirmishes could likely be repelled, as long as they are merely attempts to test NATO’s eastern flank rather than a full-scale war. But if the U.S. truly withdraws from the defense of European nations more broadly, then military capabilities must be found elsewhere in the Baltics. The responsibility for defending the region would increasingly fall on European nations."

* * *

Estonians have also turned their gaze northward to Finland, which is militarily far stronger than Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The local newspaper "Postimees" even published an article discussing the possibility of Estonia and Finland forming a federation, in which defense cooperation would be a key element. The idea itself is not new, as similar discussions took place already over 80 years ago.

However, Postimees’s vision is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, as Estonia’s current military capabilities would contribute little to Finland’s defense. Instead, it would significantly increase the risk of Finland being drawn into a conflict should Russia choose to direct military aggression south of the Gulf of Finland.

Additionally, Finland's standard of living is significantly higher than that of Estonia, which only gained independence from Soviet rule 35 years ago. A federation would likely lead to a costly situation for Estonians as raising prices, while Finnish taxpayers would end up financing economic transfers to the southern part of the union. This would pose practical economic challenges for both nations.

In the longer term, however, such a federation might become feasible if both Estonians and Finns support the idea. After all, Estonia’s standard of living was slightly higher than Finland’s before World War II, and there is no reason why this situation could not be restored—provided that peace prevails. And if the federation could also provide military benefits for Finland.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Europe Needs More Money—and More Will—to Defend Itself
Elections in Georgia and Japan: The Future of Democracy on Different Paths
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?

Will Russia Test NATO's Article Five?

Member of the European Parliament, General Pekka Toveri, has considered the possibility in his latest blog post that Vladimir Putin might test NATO's reaction to an attack limited to one of its smaller member states.

In his writing, he called this possibility the "Narva scenario," where the Russian army would cross a border under some pretext - similar to the Mainila shots that started the Winter War with Finland - for example in the Estonian border, and threaten to use nuclear weapons if the Western military alliance acted according to Article Five to defend its member state.

In such a case, NATO would have two options. According to the first, "Washington, Paris, Berlin, and London would start shaking, thinking they can't go to nuclear war for the sake of one and a half million Estonians. This would be a huge victory for Putin, and the entire NATO would crumble."

The second - and much more likely - option would be that NATO would act according to Article Five and destroy the Russian attacking forces. In this case, Putin's bluff would be exposed - and he would not use a nuclear weapon. 

According to Toveri, "Putin might lose a couple of thousand soldiers, but so what? Over a hundred thousand have already been killed in Ukraine. It would not affect his power. The gains are so great that the risk is worth it."

Toveri's thought experiment is frightening because the Narva scenario puts every Russian-bordering NATO country at risk. Though Finland, due to its strong army, is unlikely to be targeted, the risk is real for the Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Therefore, it would be important for NATO to show the Russian dictator already in Ukraine that it is not to be trifled with. And finally ensure that Ukrainians receive the weapons they need and the right to use them, so that the Russian military is unequivocally defeated in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Finland and Western Europe: Effectively at War
The most effective Russian agent in the UK

Risk of dementia in the U.S. presidential elections

In Finland and the USA, presidential elections are taking place. We have two middle-aged men facing each other, both in good health, with no significant decline in mental and physical condition expected in the upcoming term. In this sense, things in Finland are quite exemplary.

It's a different story in the world's leading superpower. The Democratic candidate and the incumbent president, Joe Biden, was born in the midst of World War II in 1942, making him 82 this year and, if he were to serve another term, he would be 86 at its end. At times, there have been signs of both mental and physical deterioration in him.

Biden's likely opponent in the presidential election is the former president of the USA, Republican Donald Trump. He is slightly younger than Biden, also an older man. Thus, it is clear that the onset of old age symptoms is likely for him during a potential upcoming presidential term.

If the scenario unfolds in the U.S. elections where these two candidates are pitted against each other, there is a significant risk that the grip of the world's leading superpower on realpolitik weakens. In the worst-case scenario, power transfers to the vice president, but a president turning senile may hold onto power for an extended period.

This, in turn, implies that undemocratic forces gain more weight in global politics. This is especially true for the strongest among them, China, but Russia will undoubtedly seek to exploit such a situation as well, potentially even militarily.

Therefore, it would be excellent if Americans across party lines understood that their country needs a younger leader, one likely to remain functional throughout his term. This is particularly crucial now, as European leaders believed that world history ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and allowed their crisis response capabilities to deteriorate – capabilities they certainly won't be able to fix over the next four years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Military confrontation between China and USA highly probable in near future
Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?
Leaders infected by a parasite

Will China ally with Russia against Ukraine?

After the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia, people around the world have been pondering what the consequences will be. One manifestation of this is when US President Joe Biden stated during his visit to Canada that China has not yet delivered weapons to Russia. 

It remains to be seen whether this will happen at a later stage. However, it is most likely that Xi's administration will not take such a risk. Instead, it seeks to benefit from Russia by exporting Chinese products there to replace Western counterparts and importing underpriced Russian raw materials to China as their export to Western countries has collapsed.

I base my view on the fact that China would not gain much advantage by supporting the soon-to-be ousted dictator Vladimir Putin and exacerbating its strained relations with the West over the Taiwan issue. On the contrary, such an action could prove to be very costly for China. Moreover, the current Chinese leadership is not accustomed to taking significant risks in any matter, as demonstrated by its excessive caution in lifting coronavirus restrictions.

However, this does not mean that China could not act differently from what I imagine, as the failed coronavirus policy has shown that Xi's administration has made mistakes before. Therefore, Western countries should be prepared also for that possibility.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
China is betting on scientific excellence
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
Could China take advantage on the weakness of Putin´s Russia?

Will an ongoing trial open the eyes of politicians?

In recent years, gangs with an immigrant background have caused considerable problems in Sweden. An interesting case related to those is currently underway in a Finnish court. 

The main question is whether such a Swedish gang was settling in Finland. The police have arrested 13 members of the group, who have been investigated on suspicion of several drug, firearm and violent crimes. 

In this case, a Swedish defendant is suspected of assaulting a Finnish main perpetrator. And according according to the prosecutor, the Swedish defendant was the actual leader and executor of the case, while the Finnish defendant was his subordinate. 

The outcome of the trial will be seen later, but already now it is clear that the problems in Sweden will appear to its neighboring countries unless their authorities manage to stop them. And that indeed is worrysome in Finland, where most of the political parties have not recognized the problem. Or simply have refused to accept it.

The current case in the court, however, can now be expected to open eyes of most citizens having a possibility to vote for the members of the national Parliament next April. And hopefully increase understanding among those candidates and parties who have previously refused to see the risk from Sweden. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Increase of violence by youngsters in Finnish towns
Sweden already in trouble - Finland following
Rape statistics in Finland and Sweden are breaking prejudices

A gift from the free world to Ukraine

Germany finally allowed Leopard battle tanks to be given to Ukraine. And even promised to send them itself. 

This all is excellent and shows that the free world is ready to defend itself against brutality and tyranny represented by Vladimir Putin´s army in Ukraine. And I am happy that my home country, Finland, will participate in this movement by adding some Leopards into the common effort.

As normal, our tanks are in a great shape and may be provided as soon as they will have a trained crew. Unfortunately, the number of these armored gifts is restricted due to our position as a neighbor of Russia and yet unaccepted application to join NATO - in this situation we simply cannot risk our own defensive ability.  

Anyway, I am sure that this day will be remembered as one of the most important turning points in the process of getting invaders out of Ukraine. And my only advice to the Zelenskiy´s army is: please, use the Leopards efficiently, and push you enemies to there, where they belong! 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Is the moral of Russians collapsing
Military advice: Ukraine needs modern tanks
Good news from Ukraine

War in Ukraine affects other countries

The war in Ukraine seems to have taken a new step. That became obvious when the Crimea bridge was damaged so badly that a part of it collapsed, and therefore it also became clear that Zelenskiy´s troops have started to prepare an attack to return back the peninsula occupied by Russians in 2014.

Right now it looks like the Ukrainian plan would be first to cut off the maintenance connections of the Russian army and attack the defender´s forces only thereafter. That sounds like a reasonable plan, but we should not forget the highly imaginative skills of the leaders of the Ukrainian army - and therefore the attack on the bridge could have been conducted "just" to regroup the Russian troops elsewhere and thereafter to strike to weak points of the defense opened by the process.

* * *

At the same time, the number of refugees have appeared to Finland from both Ukraine and Russia. Although one could imagine that the two groups escaping Vladimir Putin´s actions would understand each others well, the immigration officials decided to accommodate the two nationalities separately.  

The decision was probably reasonable, because Ukrainians are mostly women and children, whereas Russians are largely young men trying to escape from military service in Ukraine. Even though there has not been violence between the two nationalities, the decision was made due to fears of Ukrainians. 

In my opinion, making the decision before any real problems appeared was excellent as there is no reason to expose Ukrainians to any unnecessary fears - not even to ones with a very low probability. And after all, situations where men and women are isolated from normal life are prone to sexual harassment even though that would not have anything to do with the ongoing war. 

* * *

Finally, it seems that Finland will obtain a high number of new inhabitants due to the war. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, one third of Ukrainians are willing to stay in Finland even after the war. If so, they should be integrated into the working life, which is not expected to be even nearly as difficult as it has been for people who arrived in 2015 and thereafter. 

No numbers are available (to my knowledge) for the willingness of Russian young men to stay permanently in Finland. Anyway, also they would probably be a useful working force, but at the same time their presence would form a risk to the country.

That is because Russia is eager to use Russian minorities as an excuse to put pressure on its neighboring countries - even if they disagree. And definitely, the relatively big share of Russians working in Finland disagree with Putin´s actions in Ukraine: a total of 64 percent of them consider Putin´s "special operation" unjustified, and less than one fifth support it. 

Taken this all together, it seems that Ukraine is strongly dominating the war in Ukraine, but despite that, it affects strongly other countries like Finland via the flow of refugees. When the war at some day ends, it will be very interesting to see, which of those effects will be long lasting.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin is in a political and military impasse
The main consequence of Putin´s attack to Ukraine
Vakartšuk of the Okean Elzy: Finnish history inspires Ukrainians