Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?

A decision point has been reached regarding Russia's "shadow fleet" operating in the Baltic Sea. Estonia recently failed to stop one of the vessels after Russia offered it support from its air force. At the same time, two Portuguese F-16 fighter jets took to the skies from the nearby Ämari Air Base to support the Estonians—and in Finland, at least one F-18 fighter flew faster than the speed of sound for some reason, according to my own observation, although this has not been publicly acknowledged.

Fortunately, the incident did not escalate into an aerial battle, but it still shows that the risk of escalation over the Baltic Sea is very real. Thus, it is only a matter of time before some sort of confrontation occurs between Russia and NATO.

However, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has now announced: "A Russian ship from the 'shadow fleet' that is under sanctions carried out suspicious maneuvers near the power cable connecting Poland with Sweden. After a successful intervention by our military, the ship sailed off to one of the Russian ports. The ORP 'Heweliusz' is en route to the site of the incident."

It remains to be seen whether the successful interception of the vessel is a sign that even the Russians may have realized that protecting shadow fleet vessels with air support poses an enormous risk. And therefore, for now at least, they may have decided to refrain from such actions. At least, one can hope so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did a Finnish Fighter Jet Rush to Intercept a Russian Sukhoi Yesterday?
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea Sparks Calls for New Maritime Borders

It’s Time to Teach Putin: The Age of Empire Is Over

Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen does not have high expectations for the peace negotiations taking place in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday. Her view does not even depend on whether Russia's dictator, Vladimir Putin, attends or not.

Valtonen stated that Putin’s presence would make little difference. This is because, according to her, Putin has demonstrated through his actions that he merely wants to continue subjugating Ukraine and will not agree to any solution that Ukraine could accept in the long term.

Her statement reflects a realism grounded in facts. And for that reason, Western countries — both in Europe and North America — and especially the administration of Donald Trump, should take her view as the starting point when considering a resolution to the war in Ukraine.

This point was also emphasized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who announced that he would travel to Turkey regardless — but made it clear that Trump must understand Putin is the true obstacle to peace in Ukraine.

According to Zelensky, Trump must, above all, accept that Putin lies, while Ukraine is doing its part to pursue peace and has no intention of delaying the process. He also noted that if Putin fails to appear, it would serve as definitive proof that he has no intention of ending the war.

The significance of the Istanbul meeting remains to be seen. But it underscores the urgent need for EU countries to finally ramp up arms production to meet the demands of today’s geopolitical reality — and, through that, provide Ukraine’s military with sufficient support to first force the Russian army onto the defensive and ultimately drive them back, militarily defeated, to Russian soil.

In other words, the time has come for EU decision-makers to show Putin that the era of imperialism is over — even for Russia.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Warnings from Jussi Halla-aho and Igor Girkin About Europe's Near Future
When the War Comes Home to Moscow
Putin Faces a Heavy Price for His Hesitation

Finnish Trans Woman Speaks Out on Transgender Rights in Sports

In the United States, one of Donald Trump’s goals is to ban trans women from women’s sports. The issue is real, as demonstrated by last summer’s boxing matches at the Paris Olympics, where men won two women’s Olympic gold medals.

In this context, it was interesting to notice that a Finnish trans woman and former national-level high jumper, Jade Nyström, has taken a stand on the matter. And it has nothing to do with DEI or wokeness.

Nyström stated, “I fully support the idea that, in my opinion, biological men who are trans women should not compete in women’s categories... There’s a very clear advantage they gain. Hormone therapy alone does not change the entire person, especially if they’ve gone through puberty in their biological sex. It’s not fair to switch competition categories at that stage. This is not about discrimination or taking away rights – it’s more about realism.”

He also expressed a wish: “At the very least, I hope this moves in a direction where the sports of biological women are not ruined. This is not about discriminating against or taking rights away from trans women; it’s more about thinking rationally... I’m not going to switch to the women’s category because I think it would be unfair, and it wouldn’t feel right for me personally.”

It would be wonderful if the perspective of this Finnish athlete gained worldwide recognition. And if its inherent wisdom were understood by international sports leaders, including those at the International Olympic Committee.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Homosexual Rape Underscores the Need for Change in Immigration Policy
Everyone has the right
Mistreatment of Women at the Olympics?

Palestinian Youth Require More Understanding, Less Aggression

According to recent information, support for the terrorist organization Hamas has grown among young Palestinians. This is because they favor armed resistance against Israel, as they do not remember the previous intifada or the heavy toll that previous wars have exacted on the Palestinian people.

This is, of course, a development that will not bring peace to the Holy Land in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, it ensures that Israel will not grant Palestinians even the freedoms they have previously enjoyed—the most significant being the potential transfer of the Gaza Strip to direct Israeli military control.

Thus, two conclusions can be drawn from this development. First, as has already been stated, the lack of understanding among Palestinians will only harm them and their people. This is best demonstrated by Gaza's miserable fate over the past year.

Secondly, we must recognize that the increasing orientation towards violence among Palestinian youth pushes the dream of Palestinian independence even further away. It is clear that Israel has no intention of continuing to be a target for Palestinian rocket attacks now, or especially in the future, if support for armed resistance continues to grow among Palestinians.

Finally, I note that if the Palestinians truly wanted peace, they would need to understand that Israel, due to its hostile surroundings, can never afford to lose a war. Therefore, it will continue to defend itself with excessive rather than minimal force, both against Palestinian uprisings and the aggressions of neighboring states.

Thus, the only realistic path to peace for the Palestinians would be to build trust with Israel. And to wait patiently, as this would eventually lead to an improvement in the status of Palestinians, either as part of Israel or as an independent state that does not threaten Israel’s security.

In this sense, there is still hope, as there are still moderate people among the Palestinians — including among the youth. Perhaps they will eventually form a majority that adopts a peaceful approach toward the existence of the Jewish state, following the example set by Egypt and Jordan.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Hassan Nasrallah Has Been Killed, but Lebanon Is Unlikely to Become the Switzerland of the Middle East Again
A Fair Peace Proposal for Gaza
Two out of three Palestinians support October 7 attack