Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As we all know, its success has not been what President Vladimir Putin and his generals had hoped for.

Finnish news media MTV3 published a news report according to which the intelligence service GCHQ has estimated that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine during the past four-plus years, or roughly 50 months. This means that the Russians have lost an average of nearly 9,800 soldiers per month.

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In Finland, the miracle of the Winter War is still remembered. That war lasted about 3.5 months, and therefore it is interesting to compare Russian losses in Ukraine with the casualties suffered by the Red Army during the winter of 1939–40.

According to Russian sources cited by Wikipedia, either 126,875 or 167,976 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing during that conflict. These figures amount to approximately 36,000 or 48,000 killed or missing per month.

From this, one may conclude that the Finns who resolutely defended themselves during the Winter War were about 3.6 or 4.8 times more effective than present-day Ukrainians in their fight against an invasion directed from Moscow. This is despite the fact that Ukrainians in the current war have killed roughly 2.5 times as many Russian soldiers as they themselves have lost.

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Of course, my text above may be criticized on the grounds that the Winter War was exceptional in rallying almost all Finns unanimously to defend our country. Therefore, it is useful to calculate the same comparison figures for the Continuation War, that is, the years 1941–44.

According to Wikipedia, during those 39 months approximately 63,204 Finnish soldiers and 201,000 Russian soldiers were killed. After doing the calculations, we see that the Finns managed to kill “only” a little over 5,000 Red Army soldiers per month. The explanation is probably the long trench warfare phase associated with that war, during which the fighting consisted mainly of minor skirmishes.

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Therefore, it is also useful to calculate comparison figures for present-day Ukrainians as well as for the Finns of the Winter War and the Continuation War by dividing the scale of their own losses by the number of dead Russian/Red Army soldiers. For this, we first need the figures for their own casualties: according to Wikipedia articles, these were just under 200,000 in Ukraine, about 26,000 in the Winter War, and slightly over 63,000 in the Continuation War.

When we divide the Muscovites’ casualty figures by those of the Ukrainians or Finns, we arrive at the following comparison ratios. In the war in Ukraine, about 2.5 Russians have died for every fallen Ukrainian. In the Winter War, by contrast, about 5–6.5 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing for every dead Finn, while in the Continuation War the figure was about 3.2.

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From these figures we can see that the Winter War differs fundamentally from the other two wars under discussion. This suggests that the spirit of the Winter War not only encouraged Finnish soldiers to engage in determined resistance, but also significantly increased their effectiveness compared with the less motivated Finnish army of the Continuation War.

Therefore, it is worth asking — assuming that Russians and Ukrainians are, as fighters, roughly equal to begin with — whether the substantially higher casualties suffered by Putin’s army in the current war can be explained by the low motivation level of its soldiers. And is this phenomenon creating a Ukrainian equivalent of the spirit and miracle of the Winter War: a “spirit of the special military operation” and a “miracle of the special military operation”?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
The Outbreak of the Continuation War Between Finland and the Soviet Union

Taiwan Can Wait: China’s Bigger Strategic Game

According to the New York Times Iran has agreed to give up its enriched uranium. However, CNN has stated that "Iran has agreed that the same number of ships will pass through the strait in the future as before the war. But that absolutely does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the same way it was before the war."

As a result of these concessions, the war between the USA and Iran would apparently be coming to an end, which would be excellent news for world peace. At the same time, however, it would be an outrageous development especially for Iranian women — but also for ordinary people and young people — who would remain under the rule of a fanatical Muslim regime.

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If the information outlined above is true, it is also clear that there is particular reason for satisfaction in Israel, as the existential nuclear threat posed by Iran would be disappearing. For Americans, meanwhile, what remains is the realization that their military capability was not, after all, what they — and the entire world — had imagined it to be.

This is likely to lead to major changes within the U.S. military in order to remedy the situation, while at the same time opening an opportunity for China to seriously consider advancing its position regarding Taiwan. And in the opinion of many, it may even be surprising that this has not already happened.

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There may of course be many reasons for this, but in my own opinion the most serious possibility is that Xi Jinping may not even intend to resolve the Taiwan question militarily. Conquering the island of Formosa would of course be a historic victory, but at the same time an enormous risk for the Chinese leadership — especially since America’s inability to overthrow the Iranian regime has provided a cautionary example. As has Putin’s army becoming bogged down on the plains of Ukraine.

For this reason, I believe Xi is currently focusing, instead of war, on subordinating Russia into becoming China’s economic vassal and above all a reserve of raw materials. Success in this would provide the Chinese communist leadership with long-term benefits and the opportunity to maintain sustainable economic growth despite the country’s demographic structure becoming more challenging year by year.

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According to the Bank of Finland, China’s population has in recent years begun to decline, and the birth rate has fallen even below the level seen during the country’s one-child policy era: today only about one child is born per woman, which is significantly lower than, for example, in Finland. At the same time, the number of elderly people is growing rapidly.

For this reason, it would be sheer madness to embark on a campaign to conquer Taiwan, where large numbers of young soldiers would certainly die. This despite the fact that China’s expertise in robotics would undoubtedly enable a form of technological warfare similar to that practiced by Ukrainians against the Russian forces that invaded their homeland.

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A war of conquest would also involve an enormous risk that at least part of the Chinese population would turn against Xi’s regime. Therefore, from his perspective, it makes far more sense to secure his own position by focusing on a more constructive foreign policy both in Russia and elsewhere in the world.

In much the same way that the Chinese have turned many African countries into a kind of colony from which China imports materials essential to modern industry — cobalt, lithium, aluminum, copper, rare earth elements, as well as crude oil and agricultural products. At the same time, it exports Chinese weapons and electronics there and builds infrastructure.

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The situation I have described above is simply too favorable for the Chinese — and especially for the country’s autocratic leader — while the examples of the USA and Russia described at the beginning of this article are terrifying enough that China’s leadership is unlikely to embark on an adventure in Taiwan right now.

At the same time, however, it should be noted that if Xi’s — or future communist leaders’ — position were to weaken significantly, the Taiwan issue would certainly emerge as one possible means of reversing such a development: throughout history, wars of aggression have often served as a way for unpopular governments to rally public support through the patriotic fervor created by war.

For the time being, however, this is not the case, and Xi can instead exploit the opportunities created by the failures experienced by Americans and Russians in Iran and Ukraine. And thereby increase — or at least maintain — his own popularity.”

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear
What’s Next, Iran?
Venezuela, Antonio Guterres and the Nature of Great Powers

A Brave New World Will Be Born from Today’s Fertility

A recent article discussed changes in the world’s demographic structure. According to it, global population growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. For example, the fertility rates in the already highly populous countries of Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are 3.50, 4.30, and 3.81 respectively.

Even more striking figures can be found in Chad, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In those countries, women give birth to an average of 5.94, 5.91, and 5.90 children respectively. At the opposite extreme are Macao, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with fertility rates of 0.69, 0.74, and 0.75.

In Finland, the fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman in 2025. Across the entire European Union, the average was 1.34 in 2024, and in North America last year it was 1.59.

In practice, this means that in the world of the future, people will predominantly have genetic and cultural roots in developing countries — above all African ones, but also Asian peoples belonging to the Islamic cultural sphere, as illustrated by the Wikipedia map below.

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The future scenario I have outlined above actually came to mind while I was reading a column by a journalist from Finland’s largest newspaper about the civil war in Sudan. In it, Europeans were criticized for not caring about the Sudanese civil war and its victims.

According to Mykkänen, the Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Rania Dagash-Kamara, had spoken at an event held in the Finnish Parliament’s “Little Parliament” building about rapes committed against civilians in Sudan. These acts are carried out by armed men from the various sides in the conflict, and no one seems interested in protecting the victims from sexual violence.

After the event, Member of Parliament Eva Biaudet (Swedish People’s Party) reportedly showed a UNICEF report according to which rape has become a systematically used weapon of war. And it does not affect only women — one third of the victims are boys.

In addition, sixteen of the raped children were under the age of five. Four of them were only one year old.

I repeat: only one year old. In practice, babies! What kind of person rapes babies?

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Based on all this, I was left wondering what kind of world we may have in one or two hundred years’ time — taking into account what I said at the beginning of this text about the genetic and cultural roots of future humanity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Deep Roots of Violence and Disregard for Human Dignity in History
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
How to Increase Fertility Rates: A Finnish Solution

The Socially Liberal Left and the Palestinians

I have understood that the Palestinians are particularly favored in the foreign policy views of the socially liberal left because they do not have a state of their own. This would, of course, be an acceptable reason, were it not for the fact that the decision against the creation of an independent Palestinian state was made by the Palestinian leadership itself — twice, in fact.

I have also been under the impression that the socially liberal left especially supports various sexual minorities and the cause of peace. What I have not understood, however, is how the minds of left-leaning people work in such a way that all their different views somehow form a coherent worldview.

This came to mind as I was reading Finnish MTV3 and Ilta-Sanomat articles about a recent report concerning the actions of Palestinian militants on October 7, 2023. According to them, the brutal sexual violence seen in the attack was not random but intentional and coordinated.

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According to the report, the Palestinians used as many as thirteen forms of violence, including rape and gang rape, sexual torture and mutilation, forced nudity, killings involving sexual violence, post-mortem sexual violence, and sexual violence committed in front of family members. Nor was any of this unpleasant for the perpetrators; on the contrary, they openly took pleasure in their actions.

Of course, Palestinian militants also killed Jews without sexual violence. In total, around 1,200 people were killed, and they also took 251 hostages.

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One might imagine that socially liberal leftists, who in their rhetoric support sexual diversity and peace, would condemn behavior of the kind described above and at the very least criticize the people who carried it out. However, this has not happened; instead, the Palestinians’ “achievement” has been openly celebrated in these circles even after the details of the events of October 7 became public knowledge.

This was also the case in Finland during the 2024 Pride parade, which drew as many as 100,000 participants — undoubtedly mostly people who support the socially liberal left. Nor were Palestinian support and flags absent there last year either.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Most Finnish Journalism Students Lean Toward the Ultra-Liberal Far Left
Understanding of European Terrorism by Left-wing and Value-liberal Politicians
Gambling Addiction and the Shadowy Instigator

The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army

Happy Finnish Mother’s Day to all mothers!

People say that mothers fight for their children like lionesses. In the same way, the Ukrainians have acted by stretching Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special military operation” into a war that has now lasted for more than four years.

As a result, the Russian army had to settle for a rather modest Victory Day parade yesterday. Unlike in previous years, there were no missiles on display — nor even the T-34 tank designed in the 1930s, which was still present in 2023. Perhaps the last of those is already on its way to Ukraine as well?

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In one respect, however, Vladimir Putin may well be right. In his speech, he stated that the war “is moving toward its conclusion, but it nevertheless remains a serious matter.”

Unfortunately for Putin, the war has reached its culmination point, and his army’s offensive has stalled much like Hitler’s forces at Stalingrad in 1942. Nor does the future appear any brighter for him, because Ukrainian technical ingenuity is set to reverse the course of the war: new drones and missiles are already pounding Russia’s arms and oil industries, while armed robots have begun supporting — and when necessary even replacing — Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.

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Many Russians who have supported Putin up to this point have noticed this as well. But for now, fear of failure has reportedly prevented a coup.

This too is familiar from Hitler’s Germany, where the Austrian corporal remained in power so long that he ultimately chose to end his own life. By then, the Red Army had already reached Berlin, meaning Germany’s defeat in the war had been obvious for quite some time.

Putin’s advantage, of course, is that he ultimately has nuclear missiles at his disposal, and fear of them undoubtedly prevents the Ukrainians from attempting to conquer Russian territory. Thus, he cannot end up in a situation similar to Adolf Hitler’s in 1945 — even though such an outcome would undoubtedly be viewed by many as roughly equally positive for humanity as a whole.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Neanderthals Mated with Denisovans, Exceeded Modern Human Diversity

Neanderthals and Denisovans were prehistoric humans who interbred to some extent also with members of the human lineage that led to modern humans. In this context, an international research team – Diyendo Massilani and colleagues – has now published the entire genome extracted from DNA isolated from a Neanderthal fossil that lived about 110,000 years ago. This is the first male genome determined from this species.

The Neanderthal man in question had died in Denisova Cave in the Altai Mountains, the same location where Denisovans also lived at times. According to the research group’s results, the man belonged to a human group that was more closely related to another Neanderthal found in the same cave, who had lived about 10,000 years earlier, than to his counterparts in Europe or to a Neanderthal from another cave in the Altai Mountains who lived about 80,000 years ago.

The genomes of both Neanderthals from Denisova Cave that have now been sequenced contained genes originating from Denisovans, indicating that the species interbred with each other at least in the Altai region more than 100,000 years ago. This was surprising, because later Neanderthals from the Altai region or from Western Europe show no evidence of such interbreeding.

Based on DNA – specifically the extent of homozygous chromosomal regions – it was also possible to conclude that Neanderthals living in the Altai region 120,000–80,000 years ago lived in smaller and more isolated groups than later European Neanderthals (54,000–40,000 years ago). In addition, the researchers observed that the genome sequences of Neanderthals belonging to these populations differed from each other more than the genomes of the most genetically distant modern human populations (the Mbuti of Central Africa and the Highland Papuans of New Guinea).

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The study I have briefly described above is unlikely to be directly applicable for commercial purposes. Instead, it satisfies our curiosity and fulfills our need for knowledge: the opening up of the ancient world is undeniably fascinating.

Perhaps even more important than curiosity and the desire for knowledge, however, is that as science advances, humanity’s awareness of itself and of the world increases. And over time, this influences the way we see ourselves and the world we live in.

It is, of course, true that this perspective does not affect all people in the world equally: there is a significant difference, for example, in how the Taliban in Afghanistan and secularized Europeans perceive the world. Whereas the former are guided by the writings of a prophet and war leader who lived in the 7th century, the latter make their everyday decisions based on modern scientific knowledge—though usually without explicitly realizing it.

The contribution of paleogenomics—the field represented by the study described above—may not be decisive in this broader picture, but it is not negligible either. Awareness of the lives of our ancient relatives in small, isolated populations, their interbreeding with each other—and with our ancestors—and the extinction of those lineages provides important context for understanding present-day humanity and its peoples.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Surprising Story of Europe’s Hippos
The Historical Merging of Human Groups
American black population more vulnerable to the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2

Vandals of Tampere’s Mannerheim Statue Reveal Their Ignorance

In Tampere, Finland, a statue of Marshal Carl Gustaf Mannerheim—who led the White forces in the Finnish Civil War of 1918 and served as Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Army during World War II—was erected in 1956. The statue was created by Evert Porila before the Winter War and placed at a location from which Mannerheim himself observed the decisive battles of the Red uprising in 1918. The statue and its surroundings are impressive, and the historical insight behind its placement is excellent. I recommend visiting it to everyone traveling in Finland, as well as to our own citizens.

Iltalehti reported that this statue had—apparently two nights ago—been vandalized with red paint. Writings had been scrawled on the base and side of the statue, which shows poor judgment ability.

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For these vandals, it would be instructive to watch the film “The Eternal Road” (Ikitie), available on the Finnish Broadcasting Company’s Areena service. The film, directed by Antti-Jussi Annala and based on a novel by Antti Tuuri, might help them understand the kind of fate from which the victory of Mannerheim’s White Army spared their grandparents and their ancestors. A “Red Finland” would most likely have been annexed to the Soviet Union, much like Ukraine, which went on to suffer the horrors of the Holodomor.

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Still, every cloud has a silver lining. The Red uprising led to the development of a very strong executive branch within Finland’s democracy—something highly exceptional compared to other European states that gained independence after World War I.

Thanks to its strong executive power, Finland remained a democracy while many other post–World War I democracies—where parliamentary power was emphasized—drifted into right-wing dictatorships. Things were different here under the North Star: communists were banned, and the far-right Lapua Movement remained a historical curiosity.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Politics in Brigitte Bardot’s Obituary on Finland’s Public Broadcaster Yle
Demonstration Demonstrated the Selfishness of the Demonstrators
History of Finland XII: Bloody civil war