Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia

The European Union has finally awakened to the fact that many Ukrainian men are using its refugee policy as a means of avoiding military service. For this reason, the Commission has proposed—according to the Finnish media—that Ukrainian men of military age should no longer be granted temporary protection in the EU.

One can only hope that the proposal will be processed by the EU's bureaucratic apparatus more quickly than, for example, the proposal to abolish changing the clocks. As a result, Ukraine's manpower shortage could be alleviated at a time when the military situation is otherwise turning so favorable for the Ukrainians that even Russian soldiers reportedly admit they are exhausted and wish to warn Putin of a possible "major catastrophe" ahead.

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The emergence of Russian soldiers speaking out, along with the reactions of Crimeans to Ukrainian successes, suggests that the Moscow government has kept its citizens in an information blackout regarding the problems facing the "special military operation." This brings to mind the year 1940, when Finnish censorship ensured that the public had an overly optimistic view of the situation in the Winter War, and as a result, people experienced the outcome of the war as even more unjust than it actually was.

The same problem now confronts Vladimir Putin and his administration. It is genuinely difficult for them to explain to their subjects why the Ukrainians are capable of destroying Russian infrastructure to such an extent that ordinary people no longer even have fuel for their cars.

If and when a rebellious spirit continues to spread among Russian soldiers, the government will face an acute crisis that will further undermine the operational capabilities of the country's military, and consequently weaken its military performance even beyond its current state.

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All of this could have a truly dramatic impact on the ability of Putin's administration to function. At the moment, it seems to be protected by little more than the absence of a credible opposition—a factor that also makes Russia's future difficult to predict.

Consequently, the final outcome of Putin's special military operation could be anything from a palace coup to complete anarchy and even the disintegration of the Russian state. Of course, the first of these scenarios is the most likely, but then again, hardly anyone at the beginning of 1917 predicted that the Bolsheviks would overthrow and murder the Russian Tsar and his family.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As we all know, its success has not been what President Vladimir Putin and his generals had hoped for.

Finnish news media MTV3 published a news report according to which the intelligence service GCHQ has estimated that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine during the past four-plus years, or roughly 50 months. This means that the Russians have lost an average of nearly 9,800 soldiers per month.

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In Finland, the miracle of the Winter War is still remembered. That war lasted about 3.5 months, and therefore it is interesting to compare Russian losses in Ukraine with the casualties suffered by the Red Army during the winter of 1939–40.

According to Russian sources cited by Wikipedia, either 126,875 or 167,976 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing during that conflict. These figures amount to approximately 36,000 or 48,000 killed or missing per month.

From this, one may conclude that the Finns who resolutely defended themselves during the Winter War were about 3.6 or 4.8 times more effective than present-day Ukrainians in their fight against an invasion directed from Moscow. This is despite the fact that Ukrainians in the current war have killed roughly 2.5 times as many Russian soldiers as they themselves have lost.

* * *

Of course, my text above may be criticized on the grounds that the Winter War was exceptional in rallying almost all Finns unanimously to defend our country. Therefore, it is useful to calculate the same comparison figures for the Continuation War, that is, the years 1941–44.

According to Wikipedia, during those 39 months approximately 63,204 Finnish soldiers and 201,000 Russian soldiers were killed. After doing the calculations, we see that the Finns managed to kill “only” a little over 5,000 Red Army soldiers per month. The explanation is probably the long trench warfare phase associated with that war, during which the fighting consisted mainly of minor skirmishes.

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Therefore, it is also useful to calculate comparison figures for present-day Ukrainians as well as for the Finns of the Winter War and the Continuation War by dividing the scale of their own losses by the number of dead Russian/Red Army soldiers. For this, we first need the figures for their own casualties: according to Wikipedia articles, these were just under 200,000 in Ukraine, about 26,000 in the Winter War, and slightly over 63,000 in the Continuation War.

When we divide the Muscovites’ casualty figures by those of the Ukrainians or Finns, we arrive at the following comparison ratios. In the war in Ukraine, about 2.5 Russians have died for every fallen Ukrainian. In the Winter War, by contrast, about 5–6.5 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing for every dead Finn, while in the Continuation War the figure was about 3.2.

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From these figures we can see that the Winter War differs fundamentally from the other two wars under discussion. This suggests that the spirit of the Winter War not only encouraged Finnish soldiers to engage in determined resistance, but also significantly increased their effectiveness compared with the less motivated Finnish army of the Continuation War.

Therefore, it is worth asking — assuming that Russians and Ukrainians are, as fighters, roughly equal to begin with — whether the substantially higher casualties suffered by Putin’s army in the current war can be explained by the low motivation level of its soldiers. And is this phenomenon creating a Ukrainian equivalent of the spirit and miracle of the Winter War: a “spirit of the special military operation” and a “miracle of the special military operation”?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
The Outbreak of the Continuation War Between Finland and the Soviet Union

The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army

Happy Finnish Mother’s Day to all mothers!

People say that mothers fight for their children like lionesses. In the same way, the Ukrainians have acted by stretching Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special military operation” into a war that has now lasted for more than four years.

As a result, the Russian army had to settle for a rather modest Victory Day parade yesterday. Unlike in previous years, there were no missiles on display — nor even the T-34 tank designed in the 1930s, which was still present in 2023. Perhaps the last of those is already on its way to Ukraine as well?

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In one respect, however, Vladimir Putin may well be right. In his speech, he stated that the war “is moving toward its conclusion, but it nevertheless remains a serious matter.”

Unfortunately for Putin, the war has reached its culmination point, and his army’s offensive has stalled much like Hitler’s forces at Stalingrad in 1942. Nor does the future appear any brighter for him, because Ukrainian technical ingenuity is set to reverse the course of the war: new drones and missiles are already pounding Russia’s arms and oil industries, while armed robots have begun supporting — and when necessary even replacing — Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.

* * *

Many Russians who have supported Putin up to this point have noticed this as well. But for now, fear of failure has reportedly prevented a coup.

This too is familiar from Hitler’s Germany, where the Austrian corporal remained in power so long that he ultimately chose to end his own life. By then, the Red Army had already reached Berlin, meaning Germany’s defeat in the war had been obvious for quite some time.

Putin’s advantage, of course, is that he ultimately has nuclear missiles at his disposal, and fear of them undoubtedly prevents the Ukrainians from attempting to conquer Russian territory. Thus, he cannot end up in a situation similar to Adolf Hitler’s in 1945 — even though such an outcome would undoubtedly be viewed by many as roughly equally positive for humanity as a whole.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual media spectacle, the propagandistic rambling of which was reported with varying emphasis by the Finnish media (Yle, Helsingin Sanomat). This morning, I then came across a post on social media by the Ukrainian Anton Gerashchenko, who is known for sharing his views, and whose content may have been more important than any information conveyed by Finnish news organizations.

According to him, as many as eight percent of the questions submitted for the program concerned Russia’s economic crisis, making it the third most popular topic—previously it had not even made the top ten. People wanted to know when the “bad period” of the economy would end, when price increases would stop, and why the government is raising value-added tax.

Sixteen percent of Russians also wanted to know when their standard of living would improve, and 21 percent were interested in when the war would end. These are likely rather uncomfortable questions for Putin.

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In the same post, Gerashchenko also said that according to a recent opinion poll, 39 percent of Russians believe that the economic situation in their regions will worsen, compared to 33 percent a year ago, 34 percent in 2023, and 29 percent in 2022. The share of Russians who believe that life in Russia will deteriorate next year has also reached its highest level since 2022 (17%).

In other words, the consequences of the war in Ukraine are increasingly beginning to show in Russians’ everyday lives, even though—at least so far—there have been no visible (or at least serious) protests against the war. It remains to be seen at what point ordinary Russians’ concern about their own situation will lead to visible resistance against Putin’s war policy.

Or will it ever?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?

Some Ukrainians have fled the war to other countries. As a result, there are also people in Finland who have escaped Russia’s invasion, and they have generally been well received. On the other hand, finding employment has been difficult: only about 30 percent of Ukrainians have jobs, while the rest depend on social security.

According to a recent survey, however, the majority of Ukrainians intend to stay in Finland even if the war raging in their homeland were to end. This group makes up about 70 percent of all Ukrainians in the country.

At the same time, Finland has tightened its immigration policy, so it remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians currently in the country once peace returns and the need for humanitarian protection ends. In a way, Finland does need a solid workforce in the long term due to its low birth rate, even though unemployment currently affects as much as ten percent of the national labor force.

It should also be noted that the native population’s attitude toward Ukrainians is significantly more positive than toward many other groups who have arrived on humanitarian grounds. Likewise, it is clear that their readiness to earn a living through work is on a completely different level compared to those coming from developing countries.

In that sense, it would be reasonable for Finland to consider its immigration policy also from the perspective of the receiving society and to favor the settlement of Ukrainians over more problematic groups of newcomers. However, such arrangements face an obstacle in the form of so-called non-discrimination requirements—raised almost certainly by the political left—which aim to prevent immigration policy from taking advantage of recognized differences between population groups.

It therefore remains to be seen what will happen to the Ukrainians who have settled in Finland—and, along with that, whether Finns are capable of making sensible immigration policy or whether moral posturing will once again take precedence.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland to Tighten Citizenship Requirements Further
Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts
A Different Kind of Christmas

Trump’s America: Criminal or Benefactor?

The American Republican Senator Lindsey Graham raised the question of why Ukrainians should consider allowing Americans access to their natural resources. According to him, "a mineral agreement would secure American business interests. Putin does not understand what will happen if the agreement is signed. He is in trouble because Trump supports the deal—he defends the interests of the USA."

In other words, in its difficult situation, Ukraine could trade its mineral resources for the United States’ commitment to defending the country against the Russians now and in the future. The idea is undeniably interesting.

On the other hand, the idea can also be interpreted—and this is the general perception in Europe—as the Trump administration blackmailing Ukraine into giving up its natural resources in exchange for American support. Put differently, this would mean acting according to the principles of organized crime.

In fact, I feel that both interpretations reflect reality. That is, the Trump administration is indeed pressuring the Ukrainians, but at the same time, it sincerely believes that the U.S. has no obligation to sacrifice its resources—let alone its soldiers—to save a European state without receiving something in return.

Which side weighs more heavily in Trump's thinking remains known only to him. However, Europeans should take a hard look in the mirror and recognize that they—yes, they, basking in their own self-righteousness—have neglected their own defense. As a result, in 2014 and 2022, they were too weak to act as a deterrent against Vladimir Putin’s power politics—and even weaker in turning the war in Ukraine’s favor.

In practical terms, this means that European security policy must be completely rethought. Instead of EU countries trying to shirk their NATO expenses, they must now take the lead in demanding strict compliance. At the same time, they must ensure that each state increases its military capabilities to meet the requirements necessary to keep Putin and future Russian dictators in check.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Europe Needs More Money—and More Will—to Defend Itself
Finland Shifts Stance on EU Joint Debt Amid Growing Defense and Ukraine Support Needs
Finland and the USA: Strong Allies with Shared Interests or a Trade Dispute?

Blame the Philanthropist Or Understand the Facts

Every person who follows current events even a little understands that the mass migration from developing countries to Europe has led to a new type of crime, with extreme manifestations seen this year in e.g. Magdeburg, Germany, or earlier in Paris, France.

More common forms of immigration-related crime, however, include sexual crimes directed at women—sometimes even mass rapes—as well as the formation of gangs among young immigrants and their battles, for example, over control of drug markets. And, of course, the humiliation crimes committed against the native children.

Unfortunately, it seems that not everyone has the understanding needed to acknowledge these facts. This was exemplified—once more—when a book was published in our country, Finland, claiming that the root of the immigrant problem lies with the native people.

The logic of the book's authors is that the arriving immigrants have supposedly been pushed to the margins of society, and their offspring made to believe that they can never belong to the community. This marginalization, the book argues, has been achieved by failing to provide these people with sufficient support upon their arrival.

In reality, however, these immigrants have received more support in Finland than any other group of migrants before them (an example and another). And yet they are the first group to cause widespread and shocking levels of crime. Not even the Ukrainians who arrived afterward have caused such issues.

Therefore, the true reasons behind the problems caused by immigrants from developing countries must be sought within the newcomers themselves. Do they have a culture that is incompatible with Western society? Or is there a pattern of mate selection among them that has led to inbreeding and, as a result, unstable behavior and reduced intelligence?

We all know the answers to these questions, of course. What I fail to understand is why someone has published a book blaming the philanthropist—for that is what taking in immigrants in need truly is—while completely ignoring the other factors leading to the phenomenon in question.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Immigrants, Gangs, Decisions, and Self-Interest
Is the UK's Democracy Facing an Existential Crisis?
Should the Dutch Do Something About the Fact That Immigrants Don't Tolerate Visiting Jews?

A Different Kind of Christmas

Today, most of us celebrate Christmas Eve each in our own way, enjoying the holidays peacefully with loved ones and following old traditions. That’s what I will be doing as well.

However, things haven’t always been as good, and people have had to spend Christmas in very different circumstances. Even today, Ukrainians’ Christmas is overshadowed by the ongoing war, the impact of which on their holiday spirit is difficult, if not impossible, to even imagine from the safety of our northern corner of the world.

That’s why I decided to share the following text with you—to remind us to be content and grateful for the peace and atmosphere we are fortunate to enjoy this Christmas. It is an excerpt from a war diary describing the Christmas of the 1st Machine Gun Company of Infantry Regiment 65 in the Finnish Army during the first year of the Winter War, 1939:

"24.12. Christmas Eve. Relocation to Räisänen. Part of the company engaged in combat, led by Second Lieutenant Micklin. Russian aircraft. On Christmas Eve evening: violin + guitar + singing. Morale fairly high. The cabins were very warm.
25.12. Wake-up at 4 a.m., followed by an early departure to the front lines. Dry rations ran out. Supply extremely difficult. The men in their positions endured the terrible cold, -35°C, and hunger, but there was no help due to poor connections. Artillery fire several times. The Russians retreated about 3–4 km. Intense pursuit. Sergeant Taimi wounded. Cold night. Supply improved slightly. The battalion had no tents or other equipment except for Company I. We received rations during the night.
26.12. Fierce fighting continued through the night. Patrols continued movements and battles. Our patrol silenced a Russian mortar. In the morning, we got some rest. Overall, it was a relatively calm day. Shells + aircraft."

With these words, I wish all of you—my dear audience—a good, peaceful, and grateful Christmas! To Ukrainians especially, I also wish for a better future!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Christmas gift to the Holy Land
History of Finland XIV: The end of the first Finnish Republic
Merry Christmas!

Anecdotes and Jokes About Vladimir Putin

Today, a few anecdotes and jokes about the beloved leader of our neighboring country came to mind. Since they are fresh in my memory, I decided to share them with you, my dear readers. So, here you go!

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A high-ranking officer who fought in Vladimir Putin's army led his unit so effectively that the Ukrainians were forced to retreat several kilometers. Naturally, the president was pleased and invited the officer to the Kremlin.

There, he told the hero that he could ask for anything as a reward for his actions. The man replied, "I don’t want anything. I just ask that you don’t mention this to my friends."

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God was angry about the hostility humans held toward each other and decided to destroy all of creation. After some thought, however, He chose to give humanity one last chance to see if there was still kindness, goodness, and love within them.

So, He appeared to a Frenchman and told him of His plan to destroy humanity the next day. He also asked what the man intended to do before then. The man replied that he would get some fine wine and prepare a delicious meal to enjoy with his wife, and then make love to her.

God was pleased and decided to also appear to a Finnish man and share His plans. The Finnish man thought for a moment and said he would first go to the sauna with his wife, enjoy some good beer and sausages afterward, and then make love to her.

God began to doubt the idea of destruction but decided to also ask Vladimir Putin what he planned to do before the end of the world. Putin thought for a moment and declared that he would immediately order his army to invade Georgia so that Russia could conquer it before the apocalypse.

* * *

Vladimir Putin believes he has made himself indispensable to Russians and the world. Because of this, he has been deeply concerned about what would happen to the world, Russia, and his wealth if he were to die.

One day, he summoned his trusted lawyer and expressed his concerns. The lawyer opened his laptop and asked the president to dictate his will. Putin began: “If I ever die…”

* * *

In early September, President Vladimir Putin set a goal for the Russian forces: the expulsion of Ukrainians from Russian soil by the beginning of October.

However, it is now early December, and Ukrainians are still holding large areas in the Russian Kursk region. Clearly, the goal Putin set in September has not been achieved. His position is, therefore, reminiscent of his role model Joseph Stalin, who in 1939 issued a guide for Soviet soldiers on how to reach Helsinki in two weeks — only to fail completely in capturing the city.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did You Know That 1952 Was a Turning Point in World Eras?
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Tractor course for Ukrainians

Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

For a while, there was an interesting situation in the war in Ukraine: the Russians were advancing in the eastern parts of the country at the same time as Ukraine's offensive towards Kursk was making deeper inroads into Putin's realm. Although the latter operation has proven to be a success—and still is—the Russian advance towards the eastern Ukrainian transportation hub of Pokrovsk has been considered highly concerning from Ukraine's perspective.

Apparently, the Ukrainians share this concern, as they have transferred a small elite force to the area, which seems to have been able to halt the Russian advance with a counteroffensive—or even push them back. Time will tell whether the Russians will be able to continue their advance or if this was the end of it, at least for now.

Another piece of news from Ukraine concerns the new types of weapons that Zelensky's army has received. The first of these is a long-range missile/drone, soon to be followed by a ballistic missile. It remains to be seen how Ukraine will make use of these weapons.

The second new weapon in Ukraine's arsenal is a "dragon drone", capable of burning a long stretch of terrain by dropping incendiary materials onto the enemy like a flamethrower. One can only imagine what it must feel like for Russian soldiers in the trenches when attacked by such a device.

Of course, it remains to be seen what impact these new weapons systems will have on the course of the war. And at what point the Russians will develop their own dragon drone, turning the fight into an even more hellish experience for the Ukrainians.

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The other question, of course, is how the war will progress. Right now, it seems that a quick resolution is not on the horizon, in either direction. And so, soldiers from both Russia and Ukraine will continue to be fed into the jaws of war—while Putin's army continues its terrorist attacks on civilian targets.

All in all, the war demonstrates to the entire world the absurdity of Russian imperialism, which is the cause of this idiotic conflict. The United States and the United Kingdom also have some soul-searching to do, as they, along with the Russians, convinced the Ukrainians during their independence that their sovereignty would be guaranteed even without nuclear weapons.

They have not done so but have instead allowed the Russians to freely practice their terrorist power politics towards Ukraine. They have shown that international agreements are worth little more than the paper—or nowadays, perhaps the computer memory—they are written on. This, to say the least, is shameful.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Role of Ukraine Aid in the Elections of Thuringia and Saxony, Germany
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine: New Threats and Unexpected Allies
Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats