Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual media spectacle, the propagandistic rambling of which was reported with varying emphasis by the Finnish media (Yle, Helsingin Sanomat). This morning, I then came across a post on social media by the Ukrainian Anton Gerashchenko, who is known for sharing his views, and whose content may have been more important than any information conveyed by Finnish news organizations.

According to him, as many as eight percent of the questions submitted for the program concerned Russia’s economic crisis, making it the third most popular topic—previously it had not even made the top ten. People wanted to know when the “bad period” of the economy would end, when price increases would stop, and why the government is raising value-added tax.

Sixteen percent of Russians also wanted to know when their standard of living would improve, and 21 percent were interested in when the war would end. These are likely rather uncomfortable questions for Putin.

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In the same post, Gerashchenko also said that according to a recent opinion poll, 39 percent of Russians believe that the economic situation in their regions will worsen, compared to 33 percent a year ago, 34 percent in 2023, and 29 percent in 2022. The share of Russians who believe that life in Russia will deteriorate next year has also reached its highest level since 2022 (17%).

In other words, the consequences of the war in Ukraine are increasingly beginning to show in Russians’ everyday lives, even though—at least so far—there have been no visible (or at least serious) protests against the war. It remains to be seen at what point ordinary Russians’ concern about their own situation will lead to visible resistance against Putin’s war policy.

Or will it ever?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Is This the Start of Putin’s Final Countdown?

Is the UK's Democracy Facing an Existential Crisis?

In the UK, a petition was launched to call for a General Election. Its proposer believes that "the current Labour Government has gone back on the promises it laid out in the lead-up to the last election." The Government needs to respond to the request because it has obtained more than 2.6 million signatories in just a few days.

This is a peculiar case, as the election that transferred power from the Conservatives to the Labour Party took place only last July 4th — just four and a half months ago.

This demonstrates that Keir Starmer is facing exceptional dissatisfaction in the UK. One likely reason is the heavy-handed manner in which his government dealt with Britons protesting against criminal immigrants in late summer. It even released actual criminals from prison to make room for political detainees.

There is also data to back this up. According to surveys, a majority of the public was already dissatisfied with Starmer’s administration by September. In a recent poll, 28% of the public hold a favourable view of Labour, compared to 49% who view the party unfavourably.

However, other parties are not faring well either. Reform UK has the highest favourability rating of any party, with 27% holding a favourable view of the party and 46% unfavourable, while the figures for other parties are even worse.

It is therefore necessary to ask whether the UK's democracy is facing an existential crisis where no political solution satisfies the citizens. And one must hope — if this is indeed the case — that the politicians of the island nation find a way to address the situation while respecting the principles of democracy.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Predictions Based on the Opinion Polls in the UK
Why Were Violent Protests Acceptable for George Floyd but Not for the UK Child Murders?
Elections in the UK: A Shift Toward Hand-Waving Politics?