The state elections in Thuringia and Saxony of Germany ended in success for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the BSW party. The former party is considered conservative, right-wing, and nationalist. The latter, on the other hand, is a conservative, nationalist and socialist party.
Many media outlets have emphasized that the election victories of these parties were due to opposition to both immigration and Germany's support for Ukraine. Fortunately, there is also data on this matter.
According to this data, voting in Thuringia was primarily driven by the following reasons: 1. crime and internal security, 2. social security, and 3. immigration. In other words, the war in Ukraine had little impact on Thuringians' voting behavior.
Similarly, in Saxony, voting was mainly influenced by the following reasons: 1. social security, 2. crime and internal security, and 3. immigration. There have also been reports on voting reasons by party. For AfD voters, the three most important voting motives were the same, except that social security was replaced by economic development. Thus, support for Ukraine was not a significant criterion for party choice in general, nor for AfD voters.
However, it did have some relevance, at least in Saxony, where among BSW voters, it ranked as the second most important voting reason after social security, and ahead of crime and internal security. In other words, the desire to cut off Germany's aid to Ukraine was only important to voters of the party built on national socialism in Germany.
Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Afghans Had to Go
Afghans Had to Go
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