What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?

The German election result was what it was because of the kind of immigration policies that have been pursued in Germany and the EU in general. And these policies have not been beneficial either to the native European population or to immigrants arriving from elsewhere—let alone to their descendants.

Right now, however, it seems that many immigrants want this negative development—especially from the perspective of their own reference group—to continue. As a sign of this, two Afghan men were recently arrested in Germany for planning a terrorist attack on the Swedish parliament.

Fortunately, the plans of these men, who were linked to the ISIS-K organization, were uncovered, and as a result, they received prison sentences of four and a half years. However, one would have to be quite the optimist to believe that this case will improve the behavior of other immigrants who share the convicted men's mindset.

That is why I believe that the shift in support towards genuinely nationalist parties, as seen in the German elections, will continue in future elections across the EU. And this makes the entire European future uncertain because these parties are not really united by much except for their critical stance on immigration policy.

A case in point is Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is socially conservative and at least partially pro-Russian, and Finland’s Finns Party, which has clearly understood the threat posed by Putin’s Russia to Europe and advocates right-wing conservative economic policies. Beyond immigration issues, the only real common ground between these parties seems to be value conservatism.

Thus, the question must be asked: What will post-migration Europe look like in the future? Will it be a united continent capable of competing—economically and in terms of security policy—with the world's other power centers, a fragmented collection of quarrelsome states, or even a collapsed and underdeveloped society? Or even a province of Russia?

I do not have an answer to this question, but I am certain that the decisions influencing it will be made within the next ten years. And that is why Europeans should pull themselves together sooner rather than later.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point?
The Complete Demilitarization of Gaza: What Would It Mean for the Palestinians?
Do Belarusians Have the Will and Ability to Preserve Their Independence?

Will immigration give rise to a National Socialist party in Finland

In Germany, people are fed up with Berlin's immigration policy, as we could observe in the recent state elections. This is due to problems caused by certain groups of immigrants.

These problems continued when an Austrian Islamist, who apparently tried to reach the Israeli embassy, opened fire in Munich, resulting in the police ending his radicalism. One of the man's motives was likely the anniversary of the Munich massacre, where Palestinian terrorists killed eleven Israeli athletes.

This incident is unlikely to reduce the popularity of Germany's immigration-critical parties but will rather deepen Chancellor Olaf Scholz's troubles in leading the country. This may, in turn, lead to a real collapse of the Social Democrats (SPD) in next year's federal elections.

However, for the time being, there are no clear signs of this, although SPD's support has fallen in the polls from 24.1% in the 2021 federal election to around 15%. At the same time, particularly Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party, which primarily represents national socialism and is critical of immigration, has increased its support from zero to eight percent - in other words, eating away a part of the SPD's support.

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The situation of Germany's Social Democrats made me wonder whether a nationalist left-wing party could also emerge in Finland at some point. So far, especially the Left Alliance and the Greens, but also the SDP, have followed the traditions of international socialism - even though they no longer dare to call it internationalism - and thus there is no political home for nationalist leftists in Finland.

Of course, it is evident that there is currently no demand for such a party, but if Finland's growing immigrant population, like their German counterparts, increasingly profiles itself as a source of problems, such a movement could also emerge in our political left.

It is an undeniable fact that it is precisely the lower-income segment of the native population - and therefore often positively inclined towards socialism - that comes into the most contact with the population from developing countries. And thus, they also suffer the most from the negative side effects of immigration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Finnish Government is Unanimous on Fixing the Country's Economy
The Role of Ukraine Aid in the Elections of Thuringia and Saxony, Germany
Javier Milei of Argentina Called England a Dystopian Socialist Nightmare

The Role of Ukraine Aid in the Elections of Thuringia and Saxony, Germany

The state elections in Thuringia and Saxony of Germany ended in success for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the BSW party. The former party is considered conservative, right-wing, and nationalist. The latter, on the other hand, is a conservative, nationalist and socialist party.

Many media outlets have emphasized that the election victories of these parties were due to opposition to both immigration and Germany's support for Ukraine. Fortunately, there is also data on this matter.

According to this data, voting in Thuringia was primarily driven by the following reasons: 1. crime and internal security, 2. social security, and 3. immigration. In other words, the war in Ukraine had little impact on Thuringians' voting behavior.

Similarly, in Saxony, voting was mainly influenced by the following reasons: 1. social security, 2. crime and internal security, and 3. immigration. There have also been reports on voting reasons by party. For AfD voters, the three most important voting motives were the same, except that social security was replaced by economic development. Thus, support for Ukraine was not a significant criterion for party choice in general, nor for AfD voters.

However, it did have some relevance, at least in Saxony, where among BSW voters, it ranked as the second most important voting reason after social security, and ahead of crime and internal security. In other words, the desire to cut off Germany's aid to Ukraine was only important to voters of the party built on national socialism in Germany.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Afghans Had to Go

The Stabber Killed Three People in an Extremely Multicultural City
The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin