The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future

Germany's Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led a coalition government that now appears to have reached the end of the road. This is because all the ministers from the liberal FDP party announced their resignation from the government after Scholz dismissed the party's chairman, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from his post.

Scholz explained that the reason for Lindner’s dismissal was a loss of confidence in him, stemming from the liberal Finance Minister's economic policy views, which differed from those of the Chancellor and the third coalition partner, the Greens.

Next, Scholz intends to negotiate with the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, and offer him an opportunity to “work constructively together on issues critical to our country.” It remains to be seen whether Merz will be willing to rescue Scholz, whose popularity among the public continues to decline.

The Greens, however, would like to continue governing Germany alongside the Social Democrats. Nonetheless, Scholz is expected to face a parliamentary vote of confidence in January. Should the government receive a vote of no confidence, new parliamentary elections would likely be held in March.

According to recent polls, significant shifts could be expected in the Bundestag. The latest surveys indicate that only 16 percent of eligible voters currently support the SPD, while the country’s most popular party is now the CDU with around 32 percent support.

The immigration-critical right-wing party AfD holds second place with 17 percent, followed by the SPD. The Greens have around 10 percent support, and the immigration-critical left-wing party BSW holds about seven percent. All other parties, including the liberals, are currently polling below Germany's five-percent electoral threshold.

In my view, it would be beneficial for Europe if the German parliament were to dissolve the government and hold elections as soon as possible. This way, the EU could rid itself of Germany’s Russia-leaning government and hopefully see a new leadership in its leading nation, one that could pursue foreign policy independent of Russia and bring Germany's economy back on a growth track.

This would also allow the EU, under Germany's leadership, to take responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressor – especially if the United States, under a returning president, shifts its military support more towards Taiwan in response to increasing pressure from China, and if Donald Trump fails to negotiate a peace within 24 hours, as may be expected.

And that’s not all, as a favorable election result could also lead to the AfD joining the government, which would make immigration a prominent issue in German politics. This, in turn, could potentially put an end to the mass migration across the Mediterranean.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
The EU Is Suffocating Under Double Bureaucracy
The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties

Will immigration give rise to a National Socialist party in Finland

In Germany, people are fed up with Berlin's immigration policy, as we could observe in the recent state elections. This is due to problems caused by certain groups of immigrants.

These problems continued when an Austrian Islamist, who apparently tried to reach the Israeli embassy, opened fire in Munich, resulting in the police ending his radicalism. One of the man's motives was likely the anniversary of the Munich massacre, where Palestinian terrorists killed eleven Israeli athletes.

This incident is unlikely to reduce the popularity of Germany's immigration-critical parties but will rather deepen Chancellor Olaf Scholz's troubles in leading the country. This may, in turn, lead to a real collapse of the Social Democrats (SPD) in next year's federal elections.

However, for the time being, there are no clear signs of this, although SPD's support has fallen in the polls from 24.1% in the 2021 federal election to around 15%. At the same time, particularly Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party, which primarily represents national socialism and is critical of immigration, has increased its support from zero to eight percent - in other words, eating away a part of the SPD's support.

* * *

The situation of Germany's Social Democrats made me wonder whether a nationalist left-wing party could also emerge in Finland at some point. So far, especially the Left Alliance and the Greens, but also the SDP, have followed the traditions of international socialism - even though they no longer dare to call it internationalism - and thus there is no political home for nationalist leftists in Finland.

Of course, it is evident that there is currently no demand for such a party, but if Finland's growing immigrant population, like their German counterparts, increasingly profiles itself as a source of problems, such a movement could also emerge in our political left.

It is an undeniable fact that it is precisely the lower-income segment of the native population - and therefore often positively inclined towards socialism - that comes into the most contact with the population from developing countries. And thus, they also suffer the most from the negative side effects of immigration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Finnish Government is Unanimous on Fixing the Country's Economy
The Role of Ukraine Aid in the Elections of Thuringia and Saxony, Germany
Javier Milei of Argentina Called England a Dystopian Socialist Nightmare

The Social Democrats of Germany Supporting Putin

Germany, led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, plans to halve its support for Ukraine in order to get its debt under control. In doing so, it will also end up supporting Vladimir Putin's dictatorially ruled Russia.

This is happening at a time when Ukraine has just demonstrated its ability to surprise the Russian army after receiving a large aid package from the United States. In other words, it has shown that with the support of Western countries, it can change the course of the war.

Arkady Moshes of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs mentioned that "it is visible that Ukraine's Western allies are steering Ukraine towards a ceasefire or peace," because "some Westerners are no longer worried that Ukraine's collapse would lead them into a risky situation."

This statement immediately brought to my mind British Foreign Minister Neville Chamberlain's 1938 declaration of "peace for our time," after he and his Western colleagues had forced Czechoslovakia to cede part of its territory to Adolf Hitler's Germany. "Our time" lasted less than a year back then.

Of course, Scholz is just a Social Democrat, and perhaps for that reason, we cannot expect much understanding from him. Or at least, his Finnish ideological counterpart Timo Harakka does not possess such understanding, as journalist Ulla Appelsin just reminded us.

The fact remains, however, that if Western countries allow Russia to benefit from its attack on Ukraine, not only will Putin take note of it, but so will many other rulers of undemocratic states. The most notable of these is China, which has an obsession with incorporating Taiwan, but also has ambitions in the vicinity of the Himalayan mountains.

By saying all this, I do not mean that the end of the war in Ukraine is not a good and important goal. Rather, I remind you that peace at any cost is not reasonable.

And European politicians should therefore avoid making Chamberlain-like mistakes and ensure that the democratic world does not allow the use of military force to redraw national borders—not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, and not at the borders of Finland or the Baltic States.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A gift from the free world to Ukraine

Finnish general to Scholz and Macron: no reason to negotiate with a terrorist

A former oligarch,  Mikhail Khodorkovsky, tweeted that "Putin stole (1) part of Ukraine´s territory. He got sanctions for that. To remove them, he stole (2) more, killing thousands of people. Got sanctions. Then he stole (3) all the grain, blocked the ports & threatened to create a famine, demanding the sanctions be lifted. Am I getting this right?"

A retired Finnish general commented on Emmanuel Macron´s and Olaf Scholz´s request to warlord Vladimir Putin about serious negotiations. According to him, there is no reason to negotiate with a terrorist. In his opinion "the only correct solution is to send the sixth fleet of the US navy reinforced by Allied units to escort grain ships and at the same time detain Russian ships carrying stolen Ukrainian grain".

To me it is unbelievable that it takes a Russian refugee and a Finnish general to clarify facts about the dictator of Russia to the two most important leaders of the West-European countries. That is: facts about a  dictator, who has just violated all possible agreements between sovereign countries and is responsible on a disgusting neglect of human rights by his army. 

I think Scholz and Macron should take a look at a mirror, and recognize ugly faces of thoughtless puppets of the most dangerous dictator of our time.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Tractor course for Ukrainians
Place of the Free Ukraine
Military specialist: Russian plan in Ukraine was incredibly poor