Shock in Berlin: AfD Surges, Merz Stumbles

It may come as no surprise that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is taking the country's intelligence service to court over its classification of the party as a far-right group. What is a far bigger surprise, however, is that Friedrich Merz was not elected Chancellor in the first vote of the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, to lead a coalition government between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.

This is likely to be corrected in the second vote. More interestingly, the AfD has already called for new elections.

The reason for this is likely the party’s rising popularity, now surpassing that of all other parties. This is certainly not only due to the perception that the intelligence service’s classification is undemocratic. The protest mood has likely also been fueled by the fact that no attempt was made—even symbolically—to negotiate a coalition with the AfD, which came second in the election. That, too, can be seen as a sign of broken democracy.

That’s why it will be fascinating to see how support for German political parties evolves in the coming months and years. Will the AfD continue to grow in popularity, or will Merz’s government restore public trust in the traditional parties?

At least Merz has a good starting point: the debt brake has been loosened, and he has pledged to fix Germany’s infrastructure and armed forces with hundreds of billions in additional funding. On the other hand, if Germany's sluggish economy begins to noticeably affect people's standard of living, support could also rise for protest parties other than the AfD.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
AfD Under Fire – But Is Democracy the Price?
Good luck to Chancellor Friedrich Merz!
What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?

Should Finland Heed the Warnings of a Left-Wing Idealist?

The American scholar John Mearsheimer has commented on Finland’s NATO membership in an extremely negative tone. According to him, joining the alliance has weakened Finland’s security situation, and furthermore, the decision was made at the worst possible time.

In Mearsheimer’s view, instead of joining NATO, Finland should have continued its post-World War II policy of "Finlandization," where the country refrained from criticizing the Soviet Union's actions, no matter what they were. During that time, politicians and the media lied directly to the Finnish people about the conditions, human rights issues, and ambitions of their eastern neighbor.

However, it is noteworthy that despite all this, most Finns lived in constant fear, day and night, that Russia would occupy the country — a country with no allies to come to its aid in times of crisis. In other words, people feared a repeat of the Winter War.

Mearsheimer has also stated that Finland joined NATO at a completely wrong moment, as the alliance is now facing deep problems. He even speculated that U.S. forces might withdraw from Europe and that NATO’s Article 5 — the obligation to assist a member state under attack — would lose its significance.

He further claimed that Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has been wrong about Ukraine from the very beginning because Stubb believes in discredited ideas promoted by Western liberal imperialists since the end of the Cold War.

* * * 

After reading Mearsheimer’s views, I found myself reflecting on his words. His credibility is bolstered by the fact that already in 1993, he predicted that Ukraine should not give up its nuclear weapons the following year.

First, I concluded that neither I nor almost any other Finn — except for some on the far left — want in any way to return to the era of Finlandization. That’s why I deeply support Finland’s NATO membership and the DCA agreement with the United States, to ensure we are never again left alone if Russia attacks.

Second, I fully understand that if NATO and the DCA were to lose their significance, it would be impossible for a country of five and a half million people to maintain its independence in the event of a full-scale Russian assault. Finland’s only option would be to make the price of conquest unbearably high for Russia — just as happened in the Winter War of 1939–40 (as a result of which Finland lost about 10 percent of its territory), during which Soviet casualties reached 321,000–381,000 in about one hundred days, despite Finland's lack of modern weaponry and allies.

* * *

In light of the threat posed by Putin, I have advocated here on this blog that Western European states must build sufficient military strength and commit — within the EU framework or otherwise — to each other’s defense. Many leading European politicians, including Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, currently share this view.

Thus, it seems to me that by the time Russia and Vladimir Putin find a way out of Ukraine, Western Europe — including Finland — will have grown militarily strong enough that Russia will no longer have the capacity even to threaten its security. This is something Mearsheimer should be aware of as well.

Therefore, I found it puzzling and decided to look more closely into this scholar. I discovered that in 2019, he supported the far-left Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. Considering the historical record of socialists worldwide, this revealed to me that Mearsheimer is completely incapable of rational thinking.

Thus, I asked myself how much weight should really be given to Mearsheimer’s views on Finland’s security policy — and I concluded: not very much after all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins
Donald Trump’s Reliability as an Ally Has Proven to Be Questionable
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!

Good luck to Chancellor Friedrich Merz!

The coalition negotiations in Germany have been concluded, and as a result, the next Chancellor of the country will be Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democrats (CDU). His government is scheduled to begin its work in the early days of May. The coalition will include the CDU, CSU, and SPD, and with this, Merz sent a message to the President of the United States, stating that "Germany is back on track."

Naturally, the government's effectiveness remains to be seen, but it will certainly not be helped by the fact that Germany's economic growth is expected to slow to almost zero in the near future. On the other hand — as we have all noticed — at least the trade war between the US and the EU, previously threatened by Donald Trump, has for now been called off by both sides.

According to Merz, the incoming government plans to significantly increase the country's defense spending and will also provide comprehensive support for Ukraine.

Domestically, the government faces pressure from the AfD, whose support has recently risen to match that of the CDU/CSU according to the latest polls. 

However, it remains to be seen how the government's policies, especially its program described as critical of immigration, will affect the popularity of different parties in the coming years.

What is clear, however, is that for the EU, the success of Merz’s government in both domestic and foreign policy would be important. Therefore, it is only fitting to wish him success in his new role.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What will post-migration Europe look like in the future?
Will Tomorrow’s Elections in Germany Be a Turning Point?
Afghan's Rampage in Germany Signals the End of the Value-Liberal Era in the EU

Does Germany’s Ban on Arabic-Language Posters Signal a CDU/CSU-AfD Coalition?

Germany has banned Arabic-language posters in protests taking place on its soil. This decision stems from the fact that disruptive behavior and even outright crimes have increased in demonstrations held in support of Palestine.

Additionally, Arabic-language slogans have called— in Arabic— for the destruction of Israel and Jews, essentially advocating for a continuation of the Holocaust.

The police have acted swiftly, having already interrupted a protest in Berlin where the Palestinian cause was being promoted with Arabic slogans and music. At the same time, some protesters were arrested.

* * *

The ban on the Arabic language should be seen as a reaction to all the events (example, another) that have recently shaken Germany. It is also part of a shift in the political climate, which may ultimately allow Europe to retain its fundamental character despite the reckless immigration policies of recent decades.

For Germany, this has meant growing support for the immigration-critical AfD and BNW parties, as well as a shift in the Christian Democrats’ stance in the same direction. However, the CDU/CSU leader has stated that under no circumstances will he form a government relying on AfD support.

This is a strange promise because, without the AfD— which currently enjoys around 22% support— it is impossible to form an immigration-critical government in Germany. Any other government program would be tantamount to betraying the voters, which could lead to a collapse in CDU/CSU support.

I believe that Chairman Merz understands this as well and will therefore not betray the will of the people. Instead, he will ultimately form a government with the AfD, provided the parties can agree on other issues and current polling numbers hold.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Javier Milei and the Great Western Opportunity
Friedrich Merz Needs the AfD – A Precedent from Finland
Citizen Journalism, Free Speech, and EU Challenges

Friedrich Merz Needs the AfD – A Precedent from Finland

Germany's likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz (CDU), has promised to implement significant changes to the country's immigration and asylum policies on his very first day in office. From that moment on, entry to Germany will be prohibited for anyone who does not possess valid travel documents or the European freedom of movement—this includes those seeking asylum.

According to Merz, "The state must utilize old barracks and container villages located on isolated properties to house individuals designated for deportation. Deportations of those who entered illegally must be carried out daily. The powers of the federal police responsible for border control will be expanded."

This stance comes in the wake of recent terrorist acts in Germany, the latest of which involved an Afghan illegal immigrant who killed two children with a knife. This individual had been ordered to leave Germany long ago. Merz stated that these knife attacks are a direct consequence of asylum and immigration policies pursued in Germany over the past ten years.

* * *

It remains to be seen, however, whether Merz will follow through on these promises. First, he must win the upcoming elections, and second, he must find a coalition partner. In practice, this would mean that—if Merz sticks to his current promises—the AfD (Alternative for Germany) would need to be brought into the government. This would not be possible unless the two parties secure a majority in the national parliament, as none of the other parties would accept collaboration with the AfD.

At the moment, however, the situation looks promising for Merz. According to polls, the CDU/CSU is projected to win just over 30% of the vote, while the AfD is expected to gain over 20%. In other words, they could govern Germany together.

* * *

The situation bears some resemblance to Finland, where the government is also based on cooperation between an established conservative party (the National Coalition Party) and a value-conservative party (the Finns Party), which has risen to prominence through its criticism of immigration policies. However, the difference is that Finland's government also includes significantly smaller, traditional right-wing parties (the Christian Democrats and the Swedish People's Party).

It should also be noted that Finns Party, apart from its stance on immigration, is a fairly typical conservative party. For instance, Finance Minister Riikka Purra has even pushed more strongly than other government members to balance the state budget by cutting funding for public services. The party was also the first in Finland to clearly recognize the threat posed by Putin's Russia and, as a result, began strongly supporting Ukraine long ago.

By contrast, there are greater differences between the AfD and Germany's Christian Democrats, particularly regarding Russia. The former seems entirely naïve about the threat posed by Russia. Cooperation in government could also be complicated by some AfD members' negative attitude toward Jews, and the AfD's social-populist policies might not resonate well with the Christian Democrats.

The fact remains, however, that in both Finland and Germany, political parties have their differences, but despite these, they must be able to form a common government program. If the CDU/CSU and AfD succeed in doing so, they could govern Germany together in the coming years—and in doing so, they could set an example for the rest of Europe, particularly in rationalizing immigration and asylum policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
Citizen Journalism, Free Speech, and EU Challenges
Why It’s Crucial for Germans to Vote Wisely

On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria

The Syrian revolution demonstrated that Russia does not have the capacity to wage two battles simultaneously. In other words, its resources are fully committed in Ukraine.

This should be clearly understood in Western countries. Moreover, the obvious conclusion should be drawn: Russia can also be defeated in the war in Ukraine by increasing support for Zelenskyy's army.

Increasing this support is particularly advantageous for European states because a Russian victory in Ukraine would sooner or later weaken the security of European countries. Additionally, the future U.S. president, Donald Trump, has declared his goal to shift responsibility from the United States to EU countries.

One key figure in this matter is Germany's Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, who is currently in Kyiv negotiating what kind of support Ukraine will need in the future. He is also very likely to take his place as Germany's Chancellor after the elections next February.

One can only hope that German voters and Merz himself understand that they hold a rare opportunity to change the global political situation for the better. And if they do, other Western countries will resolutely follow their example.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Revolution in Syria: What Comes Next?
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?

The Fall of Germany’s Government Could Open the EU’s Path to a Better Future

Germany's Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz has led a coalition government that now appears to have reached the end of the road. This is because all the ministers from the liberal FDP party announced their resignation from the government after Scholz dismissed the party's chairman, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from his post.

Scholz explained that the reason for Lindner’s dismissal was a loss of confidence in him, stemming from the liberal Finance Minister's economic policy views, which differed from those of the Chancellor and the third coalition partner, the Greens.

Next, Scholz intends to negotiate with the leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Friedrich Merz, and offer him an opportunity to “work constructively together on issues critical to our country.” It remains to be seen whether Merz will be willing to rescue Scholz, whose popularity among the public continues to decline.

The Greens, however, would like to continue governing Germany alongside the Social Democrats. Nonetheless, Scholz is expected to face a parliamentary vote of confidence in January. Should the government receive a vote of no confidence, new parliamentary elections would likely be held in March.

According to recent polls, significant shifts could be expected in the Bundestag. The latest surveys indicate that only 16 percent of eligible voters currently support the SPD, while the country’s most popular party is now the CDU with around 32 percent support.

The immigration-critical right-wing party AfD holds second place with 17 percent, followed by the SPD. The Greens have around 10 percent support, and the immigration-critical left-wing party BSW holds about seven percent. All other parties, including the liberals, are currently polling below Germany's five-percent electoral threshold.

In my view, it would be beneficial for Europe if the German parliament were to dissolve the government and hold elections as soon as possible. This way, the EU could rid itself of Germany’s Russia-leaning government and hopefully see a new leadership in its leading nation, one that could pursue foreign policy independent of Russia and bring Germany's economy back on a growth track.

This would also allow the EU, under Germany's leadership, to take responsibility for supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressor – especially if the United States, under a returning president, shifts its military support more towards Taiwan in response to increasing pressure from China, and if Donald Trump fails to negotiate a peace within 24 hours, as may be expected.

And that’s not all, as a favorable election result could also lead to the AfD joining the government, which would make immigration a prominent issue in German politics. This, in turn, could potentially put an end to the mass migration across the Mediterranean.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
The EU Is Suffocating Under Double Bureaucracy
The Rise, Fall, and Future of the European Green Parties