Friedrich Merz Needs the AfD – A Precedent from Finland

Germany's likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz (CDU), has promised to implement significant changes to the country's immigration and asylum policies on his very first day in office. From that moment on, entry to Germany will be prohibited for anyone who does not possess valid travel documents or the European freedom of movement—this includes those seeking asylum.

According to Merz, "The state must utilize old barracks and container villages located on isolated properties to house individuals designated for deportation. Deportations of those who entered illegally must be carried out daily. The powers of the federal police responsible for border control will be expanded."

This stance comes in the wake of recent terrorist acts in Germany, the latest of which involved an Afghan illegal immigrant who killed two children with a knife. This individual had been ordered to leave Germany long ago. Merz stated that these knife attacks are a direct consequence of asylum and immigration policies pursued in Germany over the past ten years.

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It remains to be seen, however, whether Merz will follow through on these promises. First, he must win the upcoming elections, and second, he must find a coalition partner. In practice, this would mean that—if Merz sticks to his current promises—the AfD (Alternative for Germany) would need to be brought into the government. This would not be possible unless the two parties secure a majority in the national parliament, as none of the other parties would accept collaboration with the AfD.

At the moment, however, the situation looks promising for Merz. According to polls, the CDU/CSU is projected to win just over 30% of the vote, while the AfD is expected to gain over 20%. In other words, they could govern Germany together.

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The situation bears some resemblance to Finland, where the government is also based on cooperation between an established conservative party (the National Coalition Party) and a value-conservative party (the Finns Party), which has risen to prominence through its criticism of immigration policies. However, the difference is that Finland's government also includes significantly smaller, traditional right-wing parties (the Christian Democrats and the Swedish People's Party).

It should also be noted that Finns Party, apart from its stance on immigration, is a fairly typical conservative party. For instance, Finance Minister Riikka Purra has even pushed more strongly than other government members to balance the state budget by cutting funding for public services. The party was also the first in Finland to clearly recognize the threat posed by Putin's Russia and, as a result, began strongly supporting Ukraine long ago.

By contrast, there are greater differences between the AfD and Germany's Christian Democrats, particularly regarding Russia. The former seems entirely naïve about the threat posed by Russia. Cooperation in government could also be complicated by some AfD members' negative attitude toward Jews, and the AfD's social-populist policies might not resonate well with the Christian Democrats.

The fact remains, however, that in both Finland and Germany, political parties have their differences, but despite these, they must be able to form a common government program. If the CDU/CSU and AfD succeed in doing so, they could govern Germany together in the coming years—and in doing so, they could set an example for the rest of Europe, particularly in rationalizing immigration and asylum policies.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
Citizen Journalism, Free Speech, and EU Challenges
Why It’s Crucial for Germans to Vote Wisely