10 January 2025

Strategic Experts Predicted Russia’s Collapse but Fell into Wishful Thinking

Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking 167 global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years.

Interestingly, 40 percent of respondents expected Russia to break up internally by 2033 due to revolution, civil war, political disintegration, or some other reason. Europeans were particularly pessimistic about Russia’s future: forty-nine percent of them foresee such an event, compared with 36 percent of Americans.

As a Finn, I naturally hope that the experts who participated in the survey are correct. Unfortunately, I cannot agree with them but view the survey results as wishful thinking rather than serious conclusions drawn from expertise.

My reasoning is that Russia did not collapse during the 1917 revolution or after its preceding defeat in the First World War. It also withstood the German offensive during the Second World War and the fall of communism in 1991.

Nor did Russia break apart during the famine of 1693 and the subsequent Time of Troubles, during which a Finnish army led by the Swedish Jacob de la Gardie captured Moscow in 1610. Nor when Napoleon did the same in 1812.

I do consider it possible, even inevitable, that Vladimir Putin’s reign will end within the next ten years, but the country will still be ruled by an undemocratic leader—be they called a czar, the chairperson of the Politburo, or a president. However, I do not believe that life for the average Russian will improve under a new leader.

I also do not believe that Russia will become a friendly state toward its neighbors or that its future rulers will abandon their imperialist policies.

For this reason, the rest of the world—and especially border states like Finland, Estonia, Poland, Ukraine, and others—must ensure the humane, economic, and military strength of their societies. In other words, citizens must see their homeland as worth defending and possess the necessary resources and military capabilities to do so.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
No Low-Hanging Fruits Among Russian Neighbors
Message from Finland's President to Vladimir Putin
Western Nations Should Act Decisively On Two Fronts Against Russia

2 comments:

  1. Maybe, if Russia would be fully defeated in the Ukrain, that could have some kind of effect.

    ReplyDelete
  2. We must make it clear to the Russians that it is best to stay within their own borders.

    ReplyDelete

I hope you enjoyed the text. If you did, feel free to read more.
You are also free to comment on the blog posts, but I ask you to stay on topic and adhere to respectful language and good manners.