2,731 Years to Conquer Ukraine

At least for me, it has been difficult to understand exactly what has happened in the war between Ukraine and Russia during the current year. Of course, it is clear that the Ukrainians have destroyed Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, while the Russians have continued to destroy Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv and other major cities.

What I have seen less information about, however, is how the situation on the front has developed. Yesterday morning, though, I noticed on social media that Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said: “At the moment, the enemy has captured 990 square kilometres since the beginning of the year, while we have regained control of 820 square kilometres. By the end of 2026, however, we will achieve a balance between these areas.”

* * *

It therefore appears that the success of the two fighting armies varies across different parts of the front. In terms of the overall picture, however, the changes are small, if not downright minimal, since Ukraine has a total area of 603,628 km². In other words, the Russians have managed to capture 0.213 percent of the territory of their victim in just under eight months, while the Ukrainians have recaptured 0.177 percent elsewhere.

Thus, the net extent of Russian advances during this period amounts to 0.037 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Or, to put it another way: at this rate, it would take the Russians 2,731 years to take control of the whole of Ukraine—that is, until the year 3757. Admittedly, they would accomplish it “already” in 2495 if Putin’s army managed to prevent Zelenskyy’s forces from recapturing any territory.

* * *

In my view, all of this underscores the absurdity of the war that has been going on in Europe for years. The casualty figures of the armies involved provide equally stark evidence: according to Wikipedia, almost 1.5 million Russians have been killed or wounded, while the corresponding figure for Ukrainians is also close to half a million.

That means that more than one percent of both Russia’s and Ukraine’s populations have been killed or wounded as a result of Putin’s “special military operation.” The former while taking part in a raid on a foreign country, and the latter while defending their homes and families.

This raises the question: how on earth could Vladimir Putin be made to understand the horror of all this, when hardly anyone would dare—even in Russia, at least—to present him with the figures I have set out here? Would it even be enough if Zelenskyy’s prediction, mentioned at the beginning of this piece, that the situation would be balanced out by the end of the year were to come true?

* * *

The situation is not entirely hopeless, however. Perhaps the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure will eventually lead—through the worsening everyday misery they cause—to a revolution in Russia. And surely it is not impossible that the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will eventually have had enough of seeing their sons and other family members sent to their deaths.

Unfortunately, I always remember in this context the view expressed by an older Estonian colleague of mine: Russians will never rise up in rebellion. This is because they are far too accustomed to their poor living conditions, and because they have potato plots to ensure that they have at least the food they need to survive. Thus, according to my colleague, even Putin can count on the support of his people during his senseless military adventure, however long it may last—decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Military Superiority Does Not Guarantee Victory

Nobody cares if a dog bites a man. Consequently, such incidents are not reported in the news, and they certainly do not make headline stories.

It is a different matter if a man bites a dog. That is unexpected and therefore the kind of event that makes headlines.

* * *

This came to mind when virtually all major Finnish media outlets (example, another) reported that Iran's armed forces had succeeded in killing two and wounding four American soldiers. The last time Iran managed to kill an enemy combatant was last March, and over the course of the current war it has reportedly killed a total of fifteen American soldiers.

According to Wikipedia, the Iranians have meanwhile lost 1,221 soldiers. That means the cost of one American soldier amounts to roughly 81 Iranian soldiers. In other words, one American is worth more than eighty Persian Muslims.

This figure can be compared, for example, with the Winter War, during which about five Red Army soldiers were killed or wounded for every Finnish soldier lost. This suggests that the Americans have been about sixteen times more militarily effective against the Iranians this year than the Finns were against the Soviets during the Winter War.

* * *

The essential question, however, is this: if the Finns' fivefold superiority was enough to halt the Red Army's offensive, will the Americans' superiority—sixteen times greater than that achieved by the Finns in the Winter War, amounting to an overall advantage of more than eighty to one—be sufficient to defeat the Iranians?

At the moment, it does not appear so, although the Americans have naturally launched retaliatory strikes in response to these events.

Such strikes, however, do not win wars, nor do they apparently succeed in toppling governments. That would require the deployment of ground forces, which would also mean a substantial increase in American military casualties.

Even President Donald Trump is unlikely to be willing to take that step, as he too remembers the war in Afghanistan, in which 2,328 U.S. soldiers lost their lives. That conflict ended, under pressure from the home front, in the defeat of the Americans—and the Europeans who had supported them.

* * *

Based on the above, it is likely that Trump's war against the Iranians will end in a humiliating defeat for the United States. The greatest victims will be ordinary Iranians, who had hoped to see their government—one guided by medieval values—overthrown. And, of course, people around the world will also suffer if the Strait of Hormuz effectively becomes a trade route controlled by Iran, with transit requiring the payment of tariffs or tolls.

Another significant consequence is that Iranian resistance has demonstrated that American military power may be less formidable than previously believed. This is something that has undoubtedly been noticed in Beijing, which has its own strategic interests in East Asia. For that reason, Taiwan in particular—but Japan as well—has good reason to prepare for the growing assertiveness of Chinese imperial ambitions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Who Really Rules Iran?
Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

The Ukrainian Lioness Will Defeat Vladimir Putin’s Army

Happy Finnish Mother’s Day to all mothers!

People say that mothers fight for their children like lionesses. In the same way, the Ukrainians have acted by stretching Vladimir Putin’s three-day “special military operation” into a war that has now lasted for more than four years.

As a result, the Russian army had to settle for a rather modest Victory Day parade yesterday. Unlike in previous years, there were no missiles on display — nor even the T-34 tank designed in the 1930s, which was still present in 2023. Perhaps the last of those is already on its way to Ukraine as well?

* * *

In one respect, however, Vladimir Putin may well be right. In his speech, he stated that the war “is moving toward its conclusion, but it nevertheless remains a serious matter.”

Unfortunately for Putin, the war has reached its culmination point, and his army’s offensive has stalled much like Hitler’s forces at Stalingrad in 1942. Nor does the future appear any brighter for him, because Ukrainian technical ingenuity is set to reverse the course of the war: new drones and missiles are already pounding Russia’s arms and oil industries, while armed robots have begun supporting — and when necessary even replacing — Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield.

* * *

Many Russians who have supported Putin up to this point have noticed this as well. But for now, fear of failure has reportedly prevented a coup.

This too is familiar from Hitler’s Germany, where the Austrian corporal remained in power so long that he ultimately chose to end his own life. By then, the Red Army had already reached Berlin, meaning Germany’s defeat in the war had been obvious for quite some time.

Putin’s advantage, of course, is that he ultimately has nuclear missiles at his disposal, and fear of them undoubtedly prevents the Ukrainians from attempting to conquer Russian territory. Thus, he cannot end up in a situation similar to Adolf Hitler’s in 1945 — even though such an outcome would undoubtedly be viewed by many as roughly equally positive for humanity as a whole.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia

Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger

I wrote in yesterday’s text that the expansion of Charlemagne’s empire "was possible because Charles was constantly at war and gave his enemies no time to recover." This came to my mind this morning when I read in the newspaper that the negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership had come to nothing, because representatives of the latter had left the negotiation site.

However, the Americans had already received a new negotiation proposal, in which, according to Trump, Iran had "offered a lot, but not yet enough." Nor had he yet considered continuing the war.

In my view, this is foolish, because Iran’s tactics seem as if they were designed based on the history of Charlemagne’s empire. As a result—if and when it has survived the initial attack by the United States and Israel—the aim is to prolong the ongoing peace process in order to improve and develop its own military capability.

* * *

Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that although their army was hardly able to defend itself during last summer’s attack by the USA and Israel, it has during the current military operations been able to cause considerable destruction—especially in countries allied with the USA, but also to the U.S. Air Force. This shows that Iran’s Islamist leadership has the ability to enhance the combat capability of its own army and to survive the current attack, if given the opportunity.

It therefore remains to be seen what the final outcome of the war will be. Will it turn out to be the strengthening of Islamist Iran, rather than the rise of a more moderate government or even a democracy?

* * *

That is why it has been sad to observe that Donald Trump clearly does not know world history and its lessons, but embarked on the war recklessly, without preparing for it to become bogged down in the way now seen. If this is the case, the greatest sufferers will be Iranian women, who will be subjected even more tightly to a medieval hell and killed if necessary.

But Iranians will not be the only ones to suffer; global security will also be among the losers. Iran has, after all, been known as the most significant driving force behind Islamic terrorism.

And there is no reason to doubt that it would continue on that path—indeed even more determinedly—if the political leadership of the United States and/or its military proves incapable of carrying its attack through to completion. In other words, the outcome of the war will be exactly what it currently appears to be.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Donald J. Trump 

Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

* * *

However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

* * *

This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?

As my esteemed readers know, yesterday the United States and Israel struck Iran, killing a large number of the country’s leaders, beginning with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran, for its part, has launched its own missiles at least toward the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain, as well as, of course, Israel. In addition, it has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranians have reacted to the events—at least according to Iranians living in Finland—by celebrating in the streets. Women symbolically with their hair uncovered, and at least some shouting the name of Reza Pahlavi, the current head of the country’s former monarchical dynasty.

On the other hand, social media also contains video material of demonstrations supporting the Iranian government. Based on what I have seen, the crowds at these demonstrations appear to be quite large.

* * *

It remains to be seen, then, how the situation in Iran will develop from here. In this respect, the absolutely central factor is the Iranian army: will it remain loyal to the Islamist regime, or will it shift to the side of those demanding change? Or, as I could well imagine, will it split into two camps that begin to wage a civil war against each other?

In any case, it is clear that neither the United States nor Israel will send their ground forces into Iran. For that reason, the country’s future is still entirely open, and it would not be surprising if it were to continue its existence in a medieval atmosphere in the future as well.

This alternative becomes more likely the longer the people demanding liberation remain without military force—that is, the longer the country’s leadership is given time to recover from its losses.

* * *

In order to clarify the situation, I asked the Gemini AI for the very latest information. It replied that “there have been reports that parts of Iran’s regular army and local security forces have refused to follow orders or have even joined the side of the protesters. Wikipedia sources and news agencies now mention ‘armed civilians’ and ‘police and military defectors’ as part of the ongoing unrest.”

In addition, according to Gemini, “there have been reports of local clashes in the regions of Kurdistan and Baluchistan. In particular, Kurdish groups (such as PJAK and PDKI) have moved from a state of readiness to actively taking up positions in their own areas.” It also stated that “there have been reports within the country of arson attacks and assaults against symbols of the regime as well as local offices of the IRGC.”

I interpret this to mean that it is not yet possible to draw conclusions about Iran’s future. In any case, however, Iranians now have an opportunity to replace their Islamist theocracy with a more civilized form of government—but the window of time for doing so may not be very long.

* * *

Finally, one observation about the possible effects of a change of power on Finnish society. It may well happen that refugees set out from the country toward Europe.

In this sense, it should be understood that these people would not be ordinary Iranians, as such people would rather return to their homeland if conditions there were to normalize. Instead, those who may set out could be Islamists who have served and/or supported the country’s tyrannical regime.

For this reason, Finland should already now state very clearly that it will not grant asylum to potential Iranian refugees in the event of a change of government, but rather that Iran will be regarded as a safe country for all its citizens—and that this assessment will not be altered by possible reports of representatives of the Islamist regime being held accountable for crimes committed over the course of half a century.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
UN Congratulates an Executioner – Credibility in Free Fall
What’s Next, Iran?
Iran at a Crossroads: From Islamist Rule Toward Democracy?

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Vaihtuuko Iranissa valta?

Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Financial Times published a report on Ukrainian soldiers deserting the front. According to it, as many as 60,000 charges have been filed this year alone against soldiers who have abandoned their posts.

For this reason, I would like to remind you – my esteemed readers – that Finns faced similar problems in 1944. However, they were resolved swiftly and effectively, which demonstrates that desertion can be brought under control quite quickly – if there is the will to do so. Undoubtedly, this applies to Ukraine as well.

* * *

During the Winter War, Finnish soldiers held their positions admirably, and morale remained high. But when the Karelian Isthmus front collapsed in 1944 under the pressure of the Soviet Union’s massive offensive, many Finnish soldiers also abandoned their posts. As a result, it was estimated in June 1944 that around 30,000 soldiers had gone missing from their units – some lost, but many deliberately fleeing.

This led Parliament to enact a law strengthening the military penal code, allowing for the death penalty for “cowardice in battle,” that is, desertion. This resulted in summary judgments by field courts and, in some cases, officers taking justice into their own hands. Consequently, roughly fifty Finnish deserters and war resisters met their end at the hands of their own countrymen.

* * *

These events have later been condemned with the infallible morality of hindsight – or, as Veikko Huovinen put it, with the “sweetest and most self-satisfied kind of wisdom.” The fact remains, however, that it was precisely those summary punishments – and the word of them spreading rapidly through the ranks – that brought desertion among Finnish soldiers under control.

Thus, swift and sufficiently firm action against desertion made possible, among other things, the defensive victory at Tali–Ihantala – the so-called Miracle of Ihantala, which stopped the Red Army’s great offensive and saved Finland’s independence. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Sensible Immigration or Moral Posturing?
Why Did Finland Remain an Independent Democracy After World War II?
Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Ukrainalainen ja suomalainen rintamakarkuruus

Patria TRACKX: Next-Generation Vehicle for Emerging Challenges

The war in Ukraine has undoubtedly been a shock to military leadership worldwide, as old doctrines of warfare have been put to the test there – and in many respects, outright discarded. As a result, every army’s leadership has been forced to consider how to respond to these newly emerged challenges. For arms manufacturers, the task has become figuring out how to meet these needs.

In this regard, an illuminating example is provided by Patria, a manufacturer of military vehicles, which has unveiled a new armored personnel carrier equipped with a machine gun – the Patria TRACKX. This is a next-generation vehicle that specifically incorporates lessons learned from the war in Ukraine.

One such lesson is the threat posed by drones, which until now has scarcely been taken into account in military vehicle design. TRACKX brings a change in this area, as its protection is designed specifically to neutralize drone attacks.

Another key issue highlighted by the war in Ukraine for military vehicle design is the requirement for high performance in challenging conditions. For this reason, TRACKX runs on rubber tracks but can also move at high speed when needed. This has been demonstrated in practice, as TRACKX set a new world speed record for tracked vehicles in the spring – 88 kilometers per hour.

Patria expects that, due to these innovative features, there will be significant demand for the vehicle both within the EU and beyond. According to the company, serial production will begin in 2027.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Palestine Action Suomi - a Bona Fide Actor or False Flag Organization?
Renaissance of the Finnish Defense Industry
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine

The Cost of the East Jerusalem Attack for Palestinians — and Its Echo Worldwide

Two Palestinian militants apparently thought that the Palestinians’ position in the Holy Land would improve if they started shooting on a road heavily used by Jews. So they put their plan into action, managing to kill at least six people and wound several others. And of course, they themselves supposedly got to enjoy the company of 72 virgins—assuming, that is, that there’s any truth to their beliefs.

Next, we are left to see what follows from this attack. Will the everyday life of ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank improve, or perhaps turn quite the opposite way?

Even more interesting, however, will be to observe how European media report on the future living conditions of the people in the West Bank—conditions that Israel’s army will undoubtedly alter in one way or another. And more interesting still will be to see how UN Secretary-General António Guterres comments on what has happened now, and again later when we can see the consequences.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Abu Obaida’s Death Brings Palestine One Step Closer to Peace
Will Gaza Get a Ceasefire, or Will Hamas Hold On to Its Terrorist Capabilities?
United Nations, corruption and terrorism

New Framework for Post-Hamas Gaza

Israel’s Security Cabinet has announced that it will take control of Gaza and destroy the terrorist organization Hamas, which previously ruled the area. Additionally, it has outlined five principles to be applied in the region.

These principles include the disarmament of Hamas, the release of hostages, the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, Israeli security oversight in Gaza, and the establishment of an entirely new Arab civil administration. The final decision on implementing these principles will be made by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s full cabinet, which is set to convene no earlier than Sunday.

To carry out this plan, Israel has repositioned its troops near the Gaza border in formations suggesting the beginning of a new large-scale ground offensive. It remains to be seen whether the war, sparked by Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, is now moving into a phase that could lead to a peaceful resolution.

* * *

At first glance, the plan raises many questions. It is certain that Hamas fighters will do everything they can to avoid capture—potentially even by using human shields. At the same time, they will undoubtedly seek to prevent the release of hostages.

I also approach with great skepticism the idea that an entirely new Arab administration could be established in Gaza without any involvement from previous powerholders. And even if such an administration were created, could it build enough military strength to prevent Hamas from resurging? One problem could be that such a government would likely be seen as an Israeli puppet regime, making it difficult to gain the trust of the local population—many of whom have traditionally supported Hamas.

On the other hand, any attempt to end the war in Gaza—and to achieve long-term, sustainable peace—is undoubtedly welcome from both the Palestinian Arab and Jewish perspectives. That is why I hope the proposed plan can materialize into an authority that wields real power in the region and succeeds in suppressing the terrorism that has taken root there for decades.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Hamas Continues the Suffering of Gaza's Civilians
A Night at the Opera
When Demands Become Damage

Oily Trap for Putin

Eight oil-producing countries have decided to increase their oil production by a total of 547,000 barrels per day. This amount is a significant addition to the market and is expected to lower the price Russia receives for its own oil.

If and when this happens, the change will have a crucial impact on the combat capability of Vladimir Putin’s army in Ukraine. This alone may influence the outcome of the war, but if U.S. President Donald Trump imposes the 100% tariffs he has threatened on countries that mediate Russian oil, the Russian dictator will face an extremely difficult situation as export revenues collapse.

Therefore, it is likely that in the near future, Putin will seek both a breakthrough on the Ukrainian front lines and a way to maintain his war chest. And of course, he cannot ignore the need to look after the standard of living of nearly 150 million Russians, since its collapse would increase the risk of revolution.

It remains to be seen whether significant changes will occur in the war between Russia and Ukraine during the current year, or whether its resolution will shift to next year or even further into the future. What is clear at this point is that the democratic world cannot accept a Russian victory in the war; it must end in a just peace—one that does not embolden Putin, or Moscow’s future rulers, to continue power politics against neighboring countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Growing Sino-Russian Threat to the West
AI Drones: Ukraine’s New Edge in the War?
Ukraine Risks Losing Western Trust by Muzzling Corruption Watchdog

A Night at the Opera

At the London opera, one performer decided to stage a protest. It involved bringing a Palestinian flag onto the stage and holding it up for the audience to see.

This demonstration had no impact whatsoever on the situation of Palestinians in their homeland, nor did it bring peace between Jews and Arabs in Palestine. It also did not undo the reasons why the Israeli army — in its search for Hamas terrorists — has extensively destroyed buildings in Gaza.

Instead, the performer in question demonstrated a lack of respect for his employer, the art form he practices, and his audience. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that he found satisfaction in getting his moment in the spotlight — at the opera, in London, in Britain, and in the global media. And even in this blog.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish Branch of Extinction Rebellion Faces Possible Ban 
In Finland, the Enemy Is Clear – and Now the Truth Is Emerging for the Palestinians Too
Does Germany’s Ban on Arabic-Language Posters Signal a CDU/CSU-AfD Coalition?

Ukraine’s Justified Exit From the Ottawa Convention

Ukraine is doing the same as Finland—that is, withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines. This is, of course, understandable given that by refraining from using mines, its army gives an unnecessary advantage to Russia’s invading forces, who sow mines wherever they go.

In fact, I find it astonishing that the Ukrainians have abided by the treaty for this long, even though it has likely cost the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers. That alone shows Ukraine’s genuine intent to comply with the treaty for as long as possible.

However, enough is enough, and upholding a treaty cannot be more important than a nation’s independence. For this reason, I fully support President Zelensky, who today signed the necessary decree for the withdrawal. 

I also hope the country will soon have access to the mines it needs to ease its defensive struggle. Perhaps Finland and Ukraine could even cooperate on this issue!?

This case also demonstrates that treaties restricting military capabilities are a double-edged sword. While they may, in principle, reduce human suffering—as is the goal of the landmine ban—there can be even greater values at stake, such as the very survival of an entire nation.

That’s why I believe states should take a very cautious approach toward agreements that reduce their military effectiveness, especially when they share borders with nations harboring imperialist ambitions. In other words, nations like Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Decides to Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty — But What Business Is It of Guterres?
António Guterres, You Won’t Stop Russia – But Mines Might
Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia

Finland Decides to Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty — But What Business Is It of Guterres?

Parliament decided today by a clear majority that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, allowing its Defence Forces to once again utilize anti-personnel mines in their operations. The vote result was 157 in favor and 18 against.

Thus ended the risky decision taken in 2011 by Finland’s Social Democratic President Tarja Halonen and the National Coalition Party’s Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen. At that time, the only parties voting against the treaty in Parliament were the Finns Party and a small number of Centre Party representatives.

Today, those who voted against the withdrawal agreement — effectively voting in favor of Putin — included ten members of the Left Alliance parliamentary group (1), seven members of the Greens (2), and one representative of the Swedish People's Party (3). These individuals are widely regarded in Finland as errand boys and girls for Putin.

All other members present supported the reintroduction of anti-personnel mines as a means of defense, to ensure that Russia remains on the eastern side of the approximately 1,300-kilometer border between the two countries. Many recognized the urgency of this need already in 2014, when Putin’s "little green men" occupied Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine. For those slower to grasp the situation, the reality became clear in 2022, when the Russian army invaded Ukraine.

* * *

In this context, I cannot help but express my astonishment at UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who took it upon himself to interfere in Finnish decision-making by strongly advocating for Finland to remain in the treaty. The reasons for this are anyone’s guess, as it would seem quite strange if the head of the United Nations were somehow under the influence of the Russian dictator.

Of course, it’s also possible that Guterres was simply unaware of how Finland uses anti-personnel mines and feared they would pose a danger to civilians. However, this fear is unfounded, because — unlike in developing countries — Finnish mines are not scattered randomly in the terrain.

Instead, the Finnish army lays minefields only when there is a clearly identified threat, and even then, their locations are recorded both on paper and in electronic systems. This ensures that minefields can be dismantled immediately when no longer needed — and therefore do not pose a threat to civilian lives or health.

1. Timo Furuholm, Veronika Honkasalo. Mai Kivelä, Anna Kontula, Minja Koskela, Pia Lohikoski, Laura Meriluoto, Aino-Kaisa Pekonen, Hanna Sarkkinen and Johannes Yrttiaho)
2. Fatim Diarra, Tiina Elo, Bella Forsgrén, Inka Hopsu, Saara Hyrkkö, Jenni Pitko and Oras Tynkkynen
   
3. Eva Biaudét

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
António Guterres, You Won’t Stop Russia – But Mines Might
Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia
Will Finland Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty?

A Quick Israeli Success in Iran Would Be Crucial for Ukraine

Israel's attacks today demonstrated that Iran has no means to defend itself against the Jewish state's assaults. Nor does it have the capability to inflict significant damage on Israel, as the mullahs’ failed counterattack attempt showed.

As a consequence, the conflict between Israel and Iran will be militarily uninteresting. However, it is clear that if Iran even partially closes the Strait of Hormuz, the global market price of crude oil will rise — and this, in turn, will have an indirect impact, particularly on the war in Ukraine.

This is because the price increase would result in money flowing into Russia’s war chest from oil sales more rapidly than it currently does. And this would lead to two consequences, both of which would be detrimental to Ukraine.

The first would naturally be that the increased oil revenues would provide more funding for arming Putin’s military, thus strengthening Russia’s invading army. The second is that the burden of war on Russian civilians would ease, thereby reducing the risk of a collapse in support for Putin’s regime — and thus the risk of a potential popular uprising.

For this reason, it is to be hoped that Israel achieves its objectives in Iran as quickly as possible. And if the mullahs attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, its openness must be ensured by the actions of other countries — especially the United States.

For this reason, it is especially interesting to closely follow the war between Israel and Iran over the weekend and the early part of next week. And perhaps even to hope that the Iranian people will grow tired of their Islamist regime and overthrow it through a popular uprising — just as the Shah's regime collapsed 46 years ago. And as a result, shut down Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iran Rejects Direct Nuclear Talks with U.S., Calls Them Pointless
Can Peace Emerge from Horrific War Crimes?
Israel’s Strike on Iran: Ripple Effects for the Middle East, Russia, and Global Stability

Polish Politics: A Quiet Success Story

Poland has in recent years served as an example for much of Europe in many respects. It has supported Ukraine almost unreservedly, developed its own defense capabilities through significant investments, and grown its economy at a rapid pace.

In terms of defense, Poland has, in a short time, become one of the strongest—if not the strongest—nations in Europe in terms of conventional warfare. Its army of nearly 300,000 troops has at its disposal, among other things, around 1,000 modern tanks, 600 howitzers, and nearly 50 American-built F-35 or F-16 fighter jets.

Poland’s economy, meanwhile, has grown so that its GDP per capita rose from $12,464 in 2016 to a notable $22,056 by 2023. Despite this, the average wage people earn from their work has fluctuated rather than risen in recent years.

Poland has in recent years been governed by the pro-EU, center-right Donald Tusk, while the presidency has been held by national conservative Andrzej Duda. Now, the presidential election has been won by Karol Nawrocki, who promotes a political agenda similar to Duda's, so no major changes in the country’s political direction are expected.

This is likely good news for all Europeans, even if many would have preferred that Nawrocki lose to his pro-EU opponent. In that case, the country would likely have shifted its policies to resemble those of its western neighbors—both for better and for worse.

However, the fact remains that the president does not have the power to steer Poland’s political direction; at best, he can only slow the developments driven by the government and parliament. And based on the developments of recent years—as outlined above—this arrangement has worked exceptionally well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Did Russia Realize the Risk Was Too Great?
Be Ready: Russia May Launch Another "Special Operation"
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare

The Price of a Dictator’s Stupidity and Megalomania

What happens when you combine the stupidity and megalomania of a short-statured dictator? Everyone can ponder the answer based on the fact that Russia has recently modernized its military bases, including nuclear missile silos.

To achieve this, it has built several kilometers of underground tunnels, hundreds of barracks, command centers, and storage facilities. In addition, Russian companies linked to the armed forces have stored related documents in public databases.

As a result, Der Spiegel and Danwatch managed to obtain around two million documents, including blueprints of the new bases. In this way, the most closely guarded secrets of Putin's armed forces were exposed to Western defense forces.

This was a major victory for the West and an unfortunate blow to Vladimir Putin. However, from his point of view, the damage can be limited by preventing any related information from reaching the Russian public. That, however, does not undo the damage already done to Putin's armed forces.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
It’s Time to Teach Putin: The Age of Empire Is Over
Fear Lurks in Vladimir Putin's Mind as He Celebrates on the Wrong Date
When the War Comes Home to Moscow

Could Mohammed Sinwar’s Death Mark a Turning Point Toward Peace

Israel has come under increasingly critical scrutiny in Western media due to its ongoing fight aimed at destroying the terrorist organization Hamas, a fight in which it has used questionable tactics such as blocking aid shipments and relocating populations from one place to another, even abroad. So far, however, Western criticism has not appeared to influence the actions of the Israeli military.

It is, of course, extremely unlikely that Israel will succeed in completely destroying Hamas. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that the organization’s ability to continue operating will be significantly diminished.

In this context, the reported discovery of the body of Hamas's military wing leader, Mohammed Sinwar, in a tunnel located in the grounds of a hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, is excellent news for Israelis and for all people around the world who oppose terrorism.

So far, however, the discovery has not been confirmed by either Hamas or the Israeli military, so it is still wise to hold off on major celebrations in Jerusalem or anywhere else. And to hope that Hamas will finally understand that it must release the remaining hostages and lay down its arms, so that the rebuilding of a future for the Palestinian people can, once again, begin.

In addition, all Palestinians should consider whether it might finally be time to acknowledge the facts and seek to build their future by recognizing the existence of the State of Israel and striving to establish cooperation with its Jewish residents. And to hope that such a path is still possible after nearly 80 years of ongoing hostility.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Why Hamas Is Unwilling to Give Up Its Weapons
Understanding of Facts is Increasing in the Middle East
Western Countries Have Neither a Reason Nor a Need to Accept Asylum Seekers from Syria or Gaza

Bless Ukrainian Soldiers With the Spirit That Once Defined the Celebrated Finnish Veterans

During the Second World War, Finland fought three separate wars. The first of these was the legendary Winter War, in which a nation of just 3.7 million people fought virtually alone against the Soviet Union, which was indirectly supported by Germany. Despite overwhelming odds, Finland managed to preserve its independence, though it had to cede one-tenth of its territory.

This loss fostered a spirit of revenge, leading Finland to attempt to reclaim its lost lands — and to conquer Eastern Karelia, home to related Finno-Ugric peoples — when Germany attacked the Soviet Union in 1941. In this Continuation War, too, the Soviet Union was the first to initiate hostilities. Unlike Germany, however, Finland managed to halt the Soviet Red Army’s major offensives toward the end of the Continuation War and preserved its independence, with borders roughly similar to those agreed after the Winter War.

The two wars mentioned above are relatively well known even outside Finland. However, few have even heard of the Lapland War. It broke out on September 15, 1944, because the Soviet Union made the rapid expulsion of German troops from Finland one of the conditions of the Continuation War’s armistice.

At that time, northern Finland was a major base for a very large number of German troops — over 200,000 men — who had fought alongside Finland during the Continuation War and now had to be expelled swiftly according to the peace terms. If the Finns failed to do so, Stalin threatened that the Soviet Union would "send assistance" — effectively meaning a renewed attack on Finland, which was simultaneously required to demobilize most of its own army.

Due to this situation, and the relatively small size of the Finnish forces in Lapland — at most about 75,000 soldiers — the Finns were forced to attack the Germans first by surprise, without a formal declaration of war, and later with increasing but often tactically unwise aggressiveness. As a result, Finnish casualties were very high, and the surprised German troops retaliated for what they saw as betrayal by burning almost every building in northern Finland to the ground. Fortunately, most of the civilian population had been evacuated across the border into Sweden.

Moreover, the Germans scattered anti-personnel mines from their depots throughout the region, causing deaths and injuries well into the 1960s, during my own childhood. It is no wonder, then, that until the collapse of the Soviet Union — and the inflow of money brought by East German tourists that followed — the people of northern Finland harbored a deep hatred toward the Germans.

Through great sacrifice, Finland managed to satisfy Stalin and avoid a new Soviet invasion. This was achieved even though the Finnish army ultimately failed to capture the narrow northwesternmost corner of Finland, where German forces held strong positions in extraordinarily defensible — virtually unconquerable — terrain. They abandoned these only when the broader situation of the ongoing world war forced them to.

Today marks the 80th anniversary of the end of the Lapland War. It is also the Finnish Veterans’ Day, when we honor the memory of those men who defended our country in their youth. 

At the same time, I extend my heartfelt wishes to all the soldiers fighting for Ukraine, hoping they may be blessed with the same skill, valor, courage, resilience, and unwavering determination that the Finnish veterans so nobly displayed during the Second World War.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Different Kind of Christmas
Finns - Among the World’s Best
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

A Lesson for the Chinese: Never Trust the Russians

The Kyiv Independent reported on Chinese nationals who fought for Russia against Ukraine – and were subsequently captured. According to them, they had voluntarily enlisted in the Russian army.

One of them explained that a recruiter had told him that a Chinese person joining the Russian military could earn 200,000–250,000 Russian rubles per month (about €2,100–2,600), which is more than the average wage in China. The recruiter also promised to pay for his travel to Russia and help him obtain the necessary documents.

The Chinese man didn’t know any Russians personally, so he believed the promises. Instead of receiving the promised income, however, the Russians confiscated his bank card and phone, leaving him unable to access his earnings. He also reported that he had been targeted by Russian “chemical weapons” right after being captured by Ukrainian soldiers.

In the end, it was the Ukrainians who saved his life and have treated both captured men well ever since. As a result, they sent a message to their fellow countrymen, saying that everything they had heard from the Russians was a lie. It turned out that Russia wasn’t as strong, and Ukraine wasn’t as weak as they had been told. Therefore, it’s better not to take part in any wars at all.

Hopefully, Chinese citizens will take the message from these prisoners seriously and avoid being lured into Putin’s army by Russia’s empty promises. At best, one might come out of it alive — but even that is unlikely.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia
Massive Blow to Russian Artillery: Ukraine Claims 1,644 Pieces Destroyed in March
Russian Fake News vs. Reality