2,731 Years to Conquer Ukraine

At least for me, it has been difficult to understand exactly what has happened in the war between Ukraine and Russia during the current year. Of course, it is clear that the Ukrainians have destroyed Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, while the Russians have continued to destroy Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv and other major cities.

What I have seen less information about, however, is how the situation on the front has developed. Yesterday morning, though, I noticed on social media that Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said: “At the moment, the enemy has captured 990 square kilometres since the beginning of the year, while we have regained control of 820 square kilometres. By the end of 2026, however, we will achieve a balance between these areas.”

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It therefore appears that the success of the two fighting armies varies across different parts of the front. In terms of the overall picture, however, the changes are small, if not downright minimal, since Ukraine has a total area of 603,628 km². In other words, the Russians have managed to capture 0.213 percent of the territory of their victim in just under eight months, while the Ukrainians have recaptured 0.177 percent elsewhere.

Thus, the net extent of Russian advances during this period amounts to 0.037 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Or, to put it another way: at this rate, it would take the Russians 2,731 years to take control of the whole of Ukraine—that is, until the year 3757. Admittedly, they would accomplish it “already” in 2495 if Putin’s army managed to prevent Zelenskyy’s forces from recapturing any territory.

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In my view, all of this underscores the absurdity of the war that has been going on in Europe for years. The casualty figures of the armies involved provide equally stark evidence: according to Wikipedia, almost 1.5 million Russians have been killed or wounded, while the corresponding figure for Ukrainians is also close to half a million.

That means that more than one percent of both Russia’s and Ukraine’s populations have been killed or wounded as a result of Putin’s “special military operation.” The former while taking part in a raid on a foreign country, and the latter while defending their homes and families.

This raises the question: how on earth could Vladimir Putin be made to understand the horror of all this, when hardly anyone would dare—even in Russia, at least—to present him with the figures I have set out here? Would it even be enough if Zelenskyy’s prediction, mentioned at the beginning of this piece, that the situation would be balanced out by the end of the year were to come true?

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The situation is not entirely hopeless, however. Perhaps the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure will eventually lead—through the worsening everyday misery they cause—to a revolution in Russia. And surely it is not impossible that the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will eventually have had enough of seeing their sons and other family members sent to their deaths.

Unfortunately, I always remember in this context the view expressed by an older Estonian colleague of mine: Russians will never rise up in rebellion. This is because they are far too accustomed to their poor living conditions, and because they have potato plots to ensure that they have at least the food they need to survive. Thus, according to my colleague, even Putin can count on the support of his people during his senseless military adventure, however long it may last—decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Truth and Myth About Christmas

This morning, the rush of Christmas preparations is already almost over, and around midday Finnish people go to listen to the Declaration of Christmas Peace, which dates back to the Middle Ages. Later in the evening, at the festive table, the Christmas Gospel is read, telling how the child Jesus was born to Mary, who had become pregnant as a virgin and who, together with her betrothed Joseph, had gone to Bethlehem to be registered for taxation.

This story, familiar to all Westerners, is a rather beautiful narrative. In addition, for many people it is associated with such childhood memories that they wish to revive them even if their worldview is not theistic. If anything, this shows how extremely important traditions are to people.

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As most of you—my esteemed readers—are probably aware, many Christmas traditions are much older than Christianity. One of their sources is the Roman festival of Saturnalia, which was celebrated for a week around the time of the winter solstice.

The description of Saturnalia given, for example, on Wikipedia sounds very familiar, although there are of course differences beyond the Christian nature of the celebration. During the festival, people gave each other gifts, and there was plenty of festive food, games, and merrymaking. It is also interesting that in the Roman temple considered the center of Saturnalia, the cult statue of Saturn had its feet unbound.

On the other hand, Saturnalia was led by a carnival king chosen for the occasion, and slaves were granted the freedoms of free people. This meant that they were allowed to gamble, become publicly intoxicated, cast aside the cloak of restrained behavior, and even act insolently. The streets, too, were filled with boisterous celebration.

These latter Roman customs do not belong to the Christmases of my generation, but I have noticed that, at least in terms of celebrating, Finland is gradually changing. Not everyone spends Christmas at home anymore; instead, people set off on boisterous holiday trips to the south or the north. And perhaps nightlife, too, is livelier than before even in cities where people’s homes are located.

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The ancient Romans had neither Christmas trees nor Santa Claus. The origin of the former is not known for certain.

According to Estonians, the first public Christmas tree was erected in Tallinn as early as 1441, but Latvian archival sources claim that the Brotherhood of the Blackheads brought the Christmas tree to Riga in 1510. In addition, there is a well-known account according to which the Christmas tree originated in 16th-century Germany, in the area of present-day Strasbourg.

What is certain, however, is that the Christmas tree tradition does not originate from Finland or even from the Nordic countries, since spruce trees began to appear in people’s homes here—initially among the nobility—only in the 19th century. Among the common people, the Christmas tree became widespread only about a hundred years ago.

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Santa Claus, of course, lives on Korvatunturi in Finland (the name translates as “Ear Mountain”), together with Mrs. Claus and his elves. This is so despite the fact that some who have lost their faith in him believe that Santa Claus originated as a kind of successor to the tradition of Saint Nicholas, the Bishop of Myra who lived in the 4th century.

Even more absurd is the idea held by Americans that Santa Claus lives at the North Pole and travels around with flying reindeer—as if they did not know that there are no reindeer living at the North Pole at all. And even if there were, they certainly would not know how to fly.

In Finland, however, there have always also been relatives of Santa Claus: the Nuutti goats and Kekri goats. They are known to have gone from house to house, first drinking the alcoholic beverages offered to them, second distributing gifts to well-behaved children, and as a third option handing out birch twigs to the naughty ones.

Fortunately, in recent years Santa Claus has reduced the first and third of these pastimes and has instead focused more on listening to Christmas songs sung in children’s clear voices and on distributing gifts.

With these words—taken more or less seriously—I wish you, my esteemed readers, a very good and happy Christmas!

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Different Kind of Christmas
Christmas gift to the Holy Land
Merry Christmas!