2,731 Years to Conquer Ukraine

At least for me, it has been difficult to understand exactly what has happened in the war between Ukraine and Russia during the current year. Of course, it is clear that the Ukrainians have destroyed Russian infrastructure with drone attacks, while the Russians have continued to destroy Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv and other major cities.

What I have seen less information about, however, is how the situation on the front has developed. Yesterday morning, though, I noticed on social media that Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said: “At the moment, the enemy has captured 990 square kilometres since the beginning of the year, while we have regained control of 820 square kilometres. By the end of 2026, however, we will achieve a balance between these areas.”

* * *

It therefore appears that the success of the two fighting armies varies across different parts of the front. In terms of the overall picture, however, the changes are small, if not downright minimal, since Ukraine has a total area of 603,628 km². In other words, the Russians have managed to capture 0.213 percent of the territory of their victim in just under eight months, while the Ukrainians have recaptured 0.177 percent elsewhere.

Thus, the net extent of Russian advances during this period amounts to 0.037 percent of Ukraine’s territory. Or, to put it another way: at this rate, it would take the Russians 2,731 years to take control of the whole of Ukraine—that is, until the year 3757. Admittedly, they would accomplish it “already” in 2495 if Putin’s army managed to prevent Zelenskyy’s forces from recapturing any territory.

* * *

In my view, all of this underscores the absurdity of the war that has been going on in Europe for years. The casualty figures of the armies involved provide equally stark evidence: according to Wikipedia, almost 1.5 million Russians have been killed or wounded, while the corresponding figure for Ukrainians is also close to half a million.

That means that more than one percent of both Russia’s and Ukraine’s populations have been killed or wounded as a result of Putin’s “special military operation.” The former while taking part in a raid on a foreign country, and the latter while defending their homes and families.

This raises the question: how on earth could Vladimir Putin be made to understand the horror of all this, when hardly anyone would dare—even in Russia, at least—to present him with the figures I have set out here? Would it even be enough if Zelenskyy’s prediction, mentioned at the beginning of this piece, that the situation would be balanced out by the end of the year were to come true?

* * *

The situation is not entirely hopeless, however. Perhaps the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure will eventually lead—through the worsening everyday misery they cause—to a revolution in Russia. And surely it is not impossible that the relatives of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will eventually have had enough of seeing their sons and other family members sent to their deaths.

Unfortunately, I always remember in this context the view expressed by an older Estonian colleague of mine: Russians will never rise up in rebellion. This is because they are far too accustomed to their poor living conditions, and because they have potato plots to ensure that they have at least the food they need to survive. Thus, according to my colleague, even Putin can count on the support of his people during his senseless military adventure, however long it may last—decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
Russia's Predicament Awakened the Trolls and Increased the Risk of Nuclear War

Military Superiority Does Not Guarantee Victory

Nobody cares if a dog bites a man. Consequently, such incidents are not reported in the news, and they certainly do not make headline stories.

It is a different matter if a man bites a dog. That is unexpected and therefore the kind of event that makes headlines.

* * *

This came to mind when virtually all major Finnish media outlets (example, another) reported that Iran's armed forces had succeeded in killing two and wounding four American soldiers. The last time Iran managed to kill an enemy combatant was last March, and over the course of the current war it has reportedly killed a total of fifteen American soldiers.

According to Wikipedia, the Iranians have meanwhile lost 1,221 soldiers. That means the cost of one American soldier amounts to roughly 81 Iranian soldiers. In other words, one American is worth more than eighty Persian Muslims.

This figure can be compared, for example, with the Winter War, during which about five Red Army soldiers were killed or wounded for every Finnish soldier lost. This suggests that the Americans have been about sixteen times more militarily effective against the Iranians this year than the Finns were against the Soviets during the Winter War.

* * *

The essential question, however, is this: if the Finns' fivefold superiority was enough to halt the Red Army's offensive, will the Americans' superiority—sixteen times greater than that achieved by the Finns in the Winter War, amounting to an overall advantage of more than eighty to one—be sufficient to defeat the Iranians?

At the moment, it does not appear so, although the Americans have naturally launched retaliatory strikes in response to these events.

Such strikes, however, do not win wars, nor do they apparently succeed in toppling governments. That would require the deployment of ground forces, which would also mean a substantial increase in American military casualties.

Even President Donald Trump is unlikely to be willing to take that step, as he too remembers the war in Afghanistan, in which 2,328 U.S. soldiers lost their lives. That conflict ended, under pressure from the home front, in the defeat of the Americans—and the Europeans who had supported them.

* * *

Based on the above, it is likely that Trump's war against the Iranians will end in a humiliating defeat for the United States. The greatest victims will be ordinary Iranians, who had hoped to see their government—one guided by medieval values—overthrown. And, of course, people around the world will also suffer if the Strait of Hormuz effectively becomes a trade route controlled by Iran, with transit requiring the payment of tariffs or tolls.

Another significant consequence is that Iranian resistance has demonstrated that American military power may be less formidable than previously believed. This is something that has undoubtedly been noticed in Beijing, which has its own strategic interests in East Asia. For that reason, Taiwan in particular—but Japan as well—has good reason to prepare for the growing assertiveness of Chinese imperial ambitions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Who Really Rules Iran?
Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony

Ukraine: Putin's Waterloo, China's Opportunity—and Finland's Headache

Putin's three-day "special military operation" has left Russians in dire straits. For example, motorists can obtain fuel only after waiting in long queues, as Ukrainian strikes on the country's oil refineries have significantly reduced Russia's refining capacity. In addition, the war has exacted a staggering human toll in the form of dead and wounded soldiers—leading to speculation that Putin may even be considering a new round of mobilization.

Yet these may not be the most significant consequences of the "special military operation." According to an article published by the Wall Street Journal, China is seeking to turn Russia into something of a vassal state. This would mean a situation in which Russia becomes dependent on China, more closely integrated with it, and increasingly looks to China as a model and a source of modern thinking.

According to the article, the Chinese have therefore been cultivating contacts with Russians whom they believe could rise to positions of influence after Putin. At the same time, they have been slow to accommodate Putin's wishes and have, for example, demanded that any agreement to build the long-discussed gas pipeline from Siberia to China include provisions allowing them to purchase Russian gas at Russia's much lower domestic prices rather than at international market rates.

When one also considers the halt in Russia's military advance—and, in some areas, even its retreat—Ukraine is increasingly emerging as Putin's Waterloo. And China is unlikely to have any qualms about exploiting the situation to the fullest.

* * *

If, as now seems increasingly possible, Russia ends up becoming a Chinese vassal state as a consequence of its war, Finland should finally begin asking what this would mean for Russia's northwestern neighbor. Would growing Chinese influence increase or reduce the security threat that Moscow poses to Finland?

It is, of course, clear that once peace returns, trade across the eastern border is likely to become easier again. But will it resemble the trade that existed before the "special military operation"? Or will it acquire a distinctly Chinese dimension? And if so, would that be beneficial or detrimental to Finland?

I have not noticed experts, civil servants, or politicians giving these questions the attention they deserve. I therefore urge them to do so without delay, so that we can make the most of the opportunities that may emerge while avoiding the pitfalls that lie ahead.

After all, politics is ultimately the art of the possible, where successful anticipation is already half the battle. This has always been especially true of Finland's policy toward its eastern neighbor.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's Endgame: Deception, Escalation, or Death?
Putin's Growing Crisis in Ukraine and an Uncertain Endgame for Russia
The Taiwan Question: A Conflict That Could Turn Nuclear

Can Ukraine Create Its Own “Winter War Miracle”?

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. As we all know, its success has not been what President Vladimir Putin and his generals had hoped for.

Finnish news media MTV3 published a news report according to which the intelligence service GCHQ has estimated that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine during the past four-plus years, or roughly 50 months. This means that the Russians have lost an average of nearly 9,800 soldiers per month.

* * *

In Finland, the miracle of the Winter War is still remembered. That war lasted about 3.5 months, and therefore it is interesting to compare Russian losses in Ukraine with the casualties suffered by the Red Army during the winter of 1939–40.

According to Russian sources cited by Wikipedia, either 126,875 or 167,976 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing during that conflict. These figures amount to approximately 36,000 or 48,000 killed or missing per month.

From this, one may conclude that the Finns who resolutely defended themselves during the Winter War were about 3.6 or 4.8 times more effective than present-day Ukrainians in their fight against an invasion directed from Moscow. This is despite the fact that Ukrainians in the current war have killed roughly 2.5 times as many Russian soldiers as they themselves have lost.

* * *

Of course, my text above may be criticized on the grounds that the Winter War was exceptional in rallying almost all Finns unanimously to defend our country. Therefore, it is useful to calculate the same comparison figures for the Continuation War, that is, the years 1941–44.

According to Wikipedia, during those 39 months approximately 63,204 Finnish soldiers and 201,000 Russian soldiers were killed. After doing the calculations, we see that the Finns managed to kill “only” a little over 5,000 Red Army soldiers per month. The explanation is probably the long trench warfare phase associated with that war, during which the fighting consisted mainly of minor skirmishes.

* * *

Therefore, it is also useful to calculate comparison figures for present-day Ukrainians as well as for the Finns of the Winter War and the Continuation War by dividing the scale of their own losses by the number of dead Russian/Red Army soldiers. For this, we first need the figures for their own casualties: according to Wikipedia articles, these were just under 200,000 in Ukraine, about 26,000 in the Winter War, and slightly over 63,000 in the Continuation War.

When we divide the Muscovites’ casualty figures by those of the Ukrainians or Finns, we arrive at the following comparison ratios. In the war in Ukraine, about 2.5 Russians have died for every fallen Ukrainian. In the Winter War, by contrast, about 5–6.5 Red Army soldiers were killed or went missing for every dead Finn, while in the Continuation War the figure was about 3.2.

* * *

From these figures we can see that the Winter War differs fundamentally from the other two wars under discussion. This suggests that the spirit of the Winter War not only encouraged Finnish soldiers to engage in determined resistance, but also significantly increased their effectiveness compared with the less motivated Finnish army of the Continuation War.

Therefore, it is worth asking — assuming that Russians and Ukrainians are, as fighters, roughly equal to begin with — whether the substantially higher casualties suffered by Putin’s army in the current war can be explained by the low motivation level of its soldiers. And is this phenomenon creating a Ukrainian equivalent of the spirit and miracle of the Winter War: a “spirit of the special military operation” and a “miracle of the special military operation”?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
The Outbreak of the Continuation War Between Finland and the Soviet Union

Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

* * *

However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

* * *

This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine led to some rather interesting perspectives, as Donald Trump called for an end to the war along the current front lines — and Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to accept the idea. According to the latter, “we must stop where we are — he is right, the President is right.”

At the same time, Trump announced that he was not ready to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which could be used to destroy Russian military and infrastructure targets deep inside the country. Not, at least, before he meets with Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Before the meeting, Zelenskyy stated that security guarantees are the most important issue for Ukraine. However, Finnish media, the BBC, USA Today, and CBS did not report on what the presidents discussed regarding those guarantees. According to Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, support for Ukraine remains strong and “includes military and economic assistance, security guarantees, a ceasefire, and a peace process.”

It therefore remains to be seen how Putin will respond in Hungary to a peace initiative that he could, if he wished, present to his people as some kind of victory. Yet compared with his previous statements, such an outcome would clearly be a failure — one that has already resulted in more than a million Russians being killed or disabled.

Thus, peace along the current front lines would be an obvious risk for Putin, since it is impossible to predict in advance which narrative — victory or failure — would ultimately prevail in the minds of Russians. And what might follow from that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

Putin's Threat Bolsters European Border States' Defense Against Russia

The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have recommended in a joint statement to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines. The reason cited is the increasing security threat posed by Russia.

Finland is also expected to join this group soon, as discussions have been ongoing about reintroducing anti-personnel mines. According to Jukka Kopra (National Coalition Party), chairman of the Defense Committee, Finland could withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty within the next few months.

This would enable the eastern border states of Russia, from Lapland to the Belarusian border, to defend themselves better against potential Russian aggression. And considering Belarus as a puppet state of Russia, this extends further down to Ukraine’s border.

Finland and Poland, in particular, have strong and well-equipped armies, which are undoubtedly capable of independent defense long enough for other NATO countries to come to their aid. If necessary, they can also help counter an attack against the Baltic states.

Since this text may be read in Putin’s dictatorship, it is important to state that none of the aforementioned NATO countries—let alone NATO as a whole—are planning any military operation on Russian soil. Any claims by Putin’s administration suggesting otherwise, now or in the future, are nothing but attempts to mislead ordinary Russians, much like Stalin’s administration did in 1939–40 when it ordered its army to occupy Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and eastern Poland, as well as launch an unsuccessful invasion to occupy Finland, which resulted in approximately 350,000 casualties for the Red Army in just three months.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland Boosts Military Self-Sufficiency and Support for Ukraine
Are We on the Brink of World War III?
Will Finland Withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty?

Message to Palestinians Who Want to Burden Finland's Healthcare System

A little over a year ago, the Palestinian Hamas organization decided to carry out a spectacular strike on Israel. However, after the initial celebrations, joy turned to sorrow when the target of the attack decided to utterly destroy the organization itself.

Now, the Palestinian government has asked Finland to take care of those wounded in the war of Gaza, as well as others in need of assistance. According to the organization's Minister of Health, "the children should come first. Especially children with cancer and those who have lost limbs. Additionally, there would be those to whom we wouldn't be able to provide surgical care, even if our hospitals were operational."

However, they failed to mention what would come after the medical services were up and running with the help of the children. Would terrorists, innocent women, or war criminals be next?

The Palestinian representative also forgot to mention that there have been many civilian casualties - at least partly because the terrorists of Hamas have operated from hospitals and hidden among civilians, such as in schools.

Despite all of this, support for the Hamas terrorists among the Palestinian population has not decreased—as one might expect from reasonable people—but has instead increased, even among the population of the West Bank of the Jordan River, which is typically more peaceful than Gaza. As a result, there are now even more supporters of violence among them than those who favor peaceful activities.

Based on what I’ve written above, I do not support transferring Palestinians—not even their otherwise innocent children—into the already resource-strained Finnish healthcare system. Instead, I urge the Palestinians to lay down their arms, hand over the Hamas terrorists to be judged by the courts, and direct their efforts toward peacebuilding and the creation of well-being in the areas they govern. In doing so, they can also eventually help the victims of the catastrophe started by Hamas.

Finally, I repeat the message I’ve already sent to all Palestinians, one whose significance they should consider very carefully. It’s a saying that goes, "a foolish head makes the whole body suffer." This, in a nutshell, explains why the Palestinians—and their children—are currently in such a poor situation.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What will Happen Tomorrow, on the Anniversary of the Attack by the Terrorists on October 7th Last Year?
Palestinian Youth Require More Understanding, Less Aggression
A Fair Peace Proposal for Gaza

Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams

The Russians have recently received multiple pieces of bad news. The latest, which surfaced through social media, reports that in September, Russia experienced the highest average wartime losses: 1,271 soldiers killed or wounded daily.

Additionally, also according to information from social media, the Russian army has lost the equivalent of five divisions' worth of armored equipment in the Pokrovsk area of Eastern Ukraine over the past year. This information was gathered by compiling all recorded instances of Russian equipment destruction for which there is video evidence: a total of 539 tanks and around 1,020 armored vehicles.

If losses continue at this pace, it is possible that the Russians will eventually have to abandon their gradually successful offensives in the Pokrovsk area and retreat to defensive positions.

* * *

Another drawback for Putin comes from the Russian economy. Namely, Russia's state budget for next year includes a 12% increase, mainly due to a quarter rise in military spending from this year.

Military expenditures will amount to 6.3% of the country’s GDP. Additionally, it is likely that more military expenses have been concealed, related to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

However, Russia’s economy has not developed, as the government has simply shifted more costs onto citizens and businesses. For example, the corporate tax rate is rising from 20% to 25%, and personal taxes will become progressive. In addition, the costs of housing, services, and public transport will also be increased.

As a result, inflation is expected to accelerate to at least 5.5%. Therefore, Russia’s central bank was shocked by the budget and plans to raise the key interest rate from the current 18% to 20%, but even this is considered insufficient to keep inflation in check.

Thus, next year’s Russian budget brings three pieces of bad news: the budget growth comes solely from businesses and citizens’ pockets, despite structural balance, the budget will increase inflation, and there is no end in sight to the negative trends as the invasion continues.

However, it remains to be seen how all of this will ultimately affect Putin's army's ability to wage war in Ukraine. The possible loss of its fighting ability would be really bad news for Vladimir Putin and his imperialistic dreams.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

What will Happen Tomorrow, on the Anniversary of the Attack by the Terrorists on October 7th Last Year?

Tomorrow, on October 7th, 2024, it will be exactly one year since the terrorist attack carried out by Palestinian Hamas, during which Jews were killed, raped, and tortured in large numbers, and hostages were taken. The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,139 people, and approximately 250 hostages were taken by the terrorists. The brutal war that followed is still ongoing.

Therefore, I am very interested to see what will happen on this anniversary. Actually, I consider it possible that Israel has chosen tomorrow as the date for its retaliatory strike against Iran due to the missile strike last week.

At the very least, this would be an easily understandable message to Iran that their actions will be met with responses on multiple levels. At the same time, it would serve as a reminder to all Palestinians eager for war that their evil deeds will not go unpunished.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Iranian Missile Attack was Followed by Humorous Flowers

Mentally Elementary-School-Aged Were Attacked, But Will Iran Come to Their Aid?
An Iranian Student's Fantasy of Two Missiles and a U.S. Aircraft Carrier

Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region and its western surroundings is encircling a large Russian army behind the Seim River. According to recent reports, this force is rather inexperienced and poorly motivated, with no intention of fighting against the Ukrainians.

This would, of course, be a bitter blow to Vladimir Putin and the Russian military leadership, who have repeatedly boasted about their army's great capabilities. If it turns out that Putin and the war leadership are unable to save the unwilling Russian soldiers and they refuse to fight, both will become laughingstocks in the eyes of the world.

What makes this situation particularly interesting is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians likely remember the Battle of Raate Road during Finland’s Winter War. There, Finnish soldiers managed to encircle and destroy units that were twice as strong, primarily consisting of Russians and Ukrainians.

According to Soviet sources, the final outcome was 1,001 enemy soldiers killed, 1,430 wounded, 2,243 missing, and 82 frostbitten, in addition to 1,100 prisoners of war captured by the Finns and a huge amount of weapons and other military equipment. On the Finnish side, around 402 soldiers were killed or went missing, and 618 were wounded.

One can hope that the Ukrainians have learned from the Battle of Raate Road and that the Russians are aware of the enormous losses their compatriots suffered back then. Ultimately, perhaps this battle will also turn out to be one where Russia must admit it is incapable of completing Putin's special operation and will refuse to carry out the orders of a leader who has become a laughingstock.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What’s the Issue With Russians?
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience

Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

A recent news report indicated that Russia's war in Ukraine will increasingly impact the wallets of its citizens. This is because President Vladimir Putin has been forced to overhaul taxes to finance his country's army, which has suffered significant material losses.

In total, Russian citizens will have to pay an additional 27 million euros in new taxes. This burden will be distributed according to people's wealth, with the wealthiest bearing a greater relative share. In other words, the previous flat tax system will change to a progressive one.

It remains to be seen how Russians will react to the reform. It would, of course, be desirable for them to reject it and launch widespread rebellion against the pointless war in Ukraine and the man who started it, Vladimir Putin.

This possibility is supported by the fact that tax increases have often sparked popular uprisings. For example, this was the case in Finland at the end of the 16th century and this year in Kenya, where the government has been increasingly pressured.

On the other hand, Putin's administration has taken a page from Stalin's book and keeps the country's citizens in fear and strict obedience. Therefore, any possible dissatisfaction among the people might remain at the level of grumbling—just as the lamentation of the families of the over half a million Russian casualties in Ukraine has.

Nevertheless, Ukrainians should not lose hope. There is always a limit to what people will endure from their leaders. Thus, it is possible that the newly decided tax increases are the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people

Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine

Russia's attack on Ukraine seems to have stalled. The reason for this is likely both the weakness of the Russians and the increase in aid Ukraine is receiving from Western countries.

In this regard, it was interesting to note that Finland has sent both older equipment and the latest products of its defense industry to Ukraine. The reason for the latter is to gather information about their effectiveness in a combat situation, especially against the Russians.

The fact remains that no one other than Russia threatens Finland's security. However, Russia's enthusiasm may be curbed by the harsh experiences of World War II -including both Winter War and Continuation War during which nearly half a million Russian soldiers were killed or went missing on the Finnish front, and even more were wounded. And in the end, the small nation of Finland remained unconquered by the then-superpower.

Hopefully, the recent change in the war in Ukraine means that the Russians will experience bitter lessons similar to those on the Finnish front in World War II, and the country's leadership will learn such a lesson that it will understand to leave its neighbors untouched in the future. It would be wise for the simple reason that now there is equipment tested specifically against them, the effectiveness of which should be beyond doubt, as the weapon systems will undoubtedly be further developed based on the experiences gained from the war in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen
The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare

The first casualty of war is the truth - but whose truth?

The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, has called on Israel to immediately cease strikes in the Rafah area. The reason is that they have hit a tent camp in the southern part of Gaza, killing dozens of people according to local (Palestinian?) authorities.

At first glance, the demand seems justified. But after Israel announced that it had carried out strikes on a target used by the terrorist organization Hamas in the area, and its armed forces stated that they were based on precise intelligence knowledge and used precision weapons, Borrell's demand requires further consideration.

If Israel's and its armed forces' claim holds true, the situation changes completely. In this case, the Palestinian fighters would have - once again - used civilians as human shields to succeed in their war. And if this is the case, we must ask what their responsibility is for the civilian casualties caused by the Israeli attack.

And consider what it would mean if we accepted such warfare, where one side is allowed to break all the rules of war, but we condemn the other, which is thus forced to act in a way that results in civilian casualties. Or giving an advantage to the one who wages war without caring about even its own civilian casualties.

Therefore, I believe that Borrell should have kept his mouth shut thus far. Or alternatively, he should have also called on Hamas to stop fighting from behind civilians and demanded the international court to condemn its actions.

In reality, no outsider knows what the truth is in this case. Nevertheless, we can certainly consider which side's information has proven to be more often correct. And which one has has been feeding lies.

However, in this matter too, the old saying applies, that the first casualty of war is the truth. Perhaps also in this case. But whose truth?

PS 21.39 Finnish time: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has admitted that the attack mentioned in my writing was a 'tragic mistake'. Thus, it seems that this time the truth did not get trampled by the war after all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Norway and Ireland are awarding the terrorists a prize
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
During the Eurovision song spectacle, the incompetence of EU officials was revealed