Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams

The Russians have recently received multiple pieces of bad news. The latest, which surfaced through social media, reports that in September, Russia experienced the highest average wartime losses: 1,271 soldiers killed or wounded daily.

Additionally, also according to information from social media, the Russian army has lost the equivalent of five divisions' worth of armored equipment in the Pokrovsk area of Eastern Ukraine over the past year. This information was gathered by compiling all recorded instances of Russian equipment destruction for which there is video evidence: a total of 539 tanks and around 1,020 armored vehicles.

If losses continue at this pace, it is possible that the Russians will eventually have to abandon their gradually successful offensives in the Pokrovsk area and retreat to defensive positions.

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Another drawback for Putin comes from the Russian economy. Namely, Russia's state budget for next year includes a 12% increase, mainly due to a quarter rise in military spending from this year.

Military expenditures will amount to 6.3% of the country’s GDP. Additionally, it is likely that more military expenses have been concealed, related to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

However, Russia’s economy has not developed, as the government has simply shifted more costs onto citizens and businesses. For example, the corporate tax rate is rising from 20% to 25%, and personal taxes will become progressive. In addition, the costs of housing, services, and public transport will also be increased.

As a result, inflation is expected to accelerate to at least 5.5%. Therefore, Russia’s central bank was shocked by the budget and plans to raise the key interest rate from the current 18% to 20%, but even this is considered insufficient to keep inflation in check.

Thus, next year’s Russian budget brings three pieces of bad news: the budget growth comes solely from businesses and citizens’ pockets, despite structural balance, the budget will increase inflation, and there is no end in sight to the negative trends as the invasion continues.

However, it remains to be seen how all of this will ultimately affect Putin's army's ability to wage war in Ukraine. The possible loss of its fighting ability would be really bad news for Vladimir Putin and his imperialistic dreams.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility