Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

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However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

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This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

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It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Risk to Putin

The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine led to some rather interesting perspectives, as Donald Trump called for an end to the war along the current front lines — and Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared to accept the idea. According to the latter, “we must stop where we are — he is right, the President is right.”

At the same time, Trump announced that he was not ready to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which could be used to destroy Russian military and infrastructure targets deep inside the country. Not, at least, before he meets with Vladimir Putin in Hungary.

Before the meeting, Zelenskyy stated that security guarantees are the most important issue for Ukraine. However, Finnish media, the BBC, USA Today, and CBS did not report on what the presidents discussed regarding those guarantees. According to Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, support for Ukraine remains strong and “includes military and economic assistance, security guarantees, a ceasefire, and a peace process.”

It therefore remains to be seen how Putin will respond in Hungary to a peace initiative that he could, if he wished, present to his people as some kind of victory. Yet compared with his previous statements, such an outcome would clearly be a failure — one that has already resulted in more than a million Russians being killed or disabled.

Thus, peace along the current front lines would be an obvious risk for Putin, since it is impossible to predict in advance which narrative — victory or failure — would ultimately prevail in the minds of Russians. And what might follow from that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
When Ukraine’s Drones Fly 2,000 km, Putin’s Confidence Shakes
Why Do Russians Tolerate Broken Infrastructure?
Ukraine Got Permission to Strike – But Where is the Target?

From Finnish Neutrality to Russian Ruins

Russia's attack on Ukraine has led to a complete transformation of Finland's foreign policy. Whereas during the Soviet era, politicians in my home country often aligned themselves with the positions of our great eastern neighbor, and even at the beginning of this millennium avoided directly criticizing the blatant injustices it committed, today they are ready to respond to Russia's actions exactly as they deserve.

We saw another example of this today when the Finnish Parliament — unanimously, note, unanimously, from the left to the right — approved the government's proposal for a complete ban on Russian real estate acquisitions. As a result, Minister Antti Häkkänen (National Coalition Party) expressed his "great joy that Parliament so comprehensively supported this proposal, whose goal is to strengthen national security. This decision sends a clear message: we will not allow Finland to be destabilized."

Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself, Russian forces have once again attacked and even made some advances, but only at great cost. In particular, Ukrainian drones have caused significant destruction among the attackers. According to Ukrainian sources, drones have been responsible for as much as 70 percent of the losses suffered by Russian forces.

According to Finnish expert Pasi Paroinen, satellite images have made it possible to assess that Russia has almost no old Soviet-era stockpiles left. It remains to be seen what Putin and his military leadership will do once the very last museum piece has been retrieved from storage and sent to be destroyed by Ukrainian drones.

The question is: should they finally give up?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finally, Finland Speaks the Truth Without Fear!
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

Massive Blow to Russian Artillery: Ukraine Claims 1,644 Pieces Destroyed in March

According to Ukrainian sources, Zelensky’s army has deployed a new type of system consisting of 5 to 10 acoustic sensors placed at regular intervals along the front line. The microphones detect artillery fire originating from the same location and immediately guide Ukrainian artillery or drones to strike the target.

Using this equipment, Ukraine has claimed to have destroyed a total of 1,644 Russian artillery pieces during March, although this information cannot be independently verified. If — and hopefully when — this claim proves accurate, Russian forces will soon find themselves in serious trouble with their offensive. Even though warfare technology is advancing at a tremendous pace, artillery remains a crucial part of virtually every major operation, whether offensive or defensive.

Logically, this should lead to a rapid and significant shift in the situation at the front, but so far, I haven’t seen any news reporting such a change. We will have to wait and see what happens in the coming weeks and months — and how it will affect the peace process initiated by President Donald Trump, which, so far, has only seen stalling tactics from the Russian side.

However, if the situation quickly turns in Ukraine’s favor, even Vladimir Putin might come to understand that a ceasefire would, in such circumstances, primarily serve the interests of his own army. At the same time, President Trump might realize that this would be the moment to push Russia toward a just peace — one in which the aggressor is left without any reward.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: 
Keir Starmer’s Message to Ireland, Spain, and Portugal: This Is About All of Europe
Now It's Putin's Turn to Show His Hand
Estonia is Arming its Military, but Does the Nation Have the Will to Defend Itself?

Message from Finland's President to Vladimir Putin

The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is a UK-led international rapid response force focused on crisis management, involving ten nations. The assembly of the forces began in 2012, and currently, besides the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands contribute troops to the initiative.

Currently, a summit of JEF member state leaders is underway in Tallinn, the capital of Estonia. Topics on the agenda include supporting Ukraine, increasing defense spending, and enhancing defense cooperation.

According to Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, “Before we can start discussions on peace negotiations and a ceasefire, we must continue to support Ukraine. And the support must be very practical. This means providing weapons and ammunition so that Ukraine can win the war on the battlefield.”

He also added, “As Finns, we know what we are talking about. After the Winter War and Continuation War, we paid the price for our independence, losing territory and sovereignty. We must ensure that this does not happen in Ukraine.”

Reporters also asked Finland's president for a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His response was brief and to the point: “Withdraw!”

President Putin, however, is unlikely to heed his Finnish counterpart’s advice. This makes it all the more significant that Ukraine’s security service recently reduced the ranks of Putin’s army by one general—right in Moscow. This demonstrates that even Russia’s military leaders must fear for their safety while moving around the nation’s capital, and it may well leave them privately hoping that Putin unexpectedly orders the lowering of arms.

At the same time, ordinary Moscow residents who support the war are forced to confront the reality that Ukraine can now strike even their home city. For the smartest among them, it might occur that Finland’s president’s advice was unusually spot on.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
On the Consequences of Russian Inability in Syria
Anecdotes and Jokes About Vladimir Putin
Ukraine can and will stop Putin

All Russians Should Be Informed of the Staggering Losses of Putin’s Army in Ukraine

Based on open data, the BBC, together with the publication Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has identified the names of 78,329 Russian soldiers who have died in Ukraine over the past two years. The growth rate of confirmed deaths is currently at its highest since the beginning of the war. The figures for September, October, and November exceed those of last year by one and a half times, and the 2022 figures by more than double.

The increase in losses may result from offensive operations by Russian forces in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, such as the assault on Vuhledar, which was captured by early October, and the assault on Pokrovsk, where fighting on the outskirts continues.

Other possible reasons include the gradual confirmation of Russian losses in Russia’s Kursk region or the aftermath of the summer offensive campaign. The rise in reports of fatalities could also be due to a combination of these factors.

The highest number of losses is among volunteers—those who signed contracts after the full-scale invasion began. Their share of total confirmed losses continues to grow, with confirmed deaths of 16,551 volunteers, accounting for 23% of the total confirmed Russian losses.

In addition to fatalities, many Russians have also been injured. Including these, the total losses for the aggressor rise to approximately 720,000 soldiers.

These figures can be compared to Soviet troop losses in Finland’s Winter War (November 30, 1939 – March 13, 1940), often likened to the war in Ukraine. In that conflict, as many as 126,875 Soviet soldiers were killed, with total losses—including the wounded—reaching around 350,000 soldiers in just 4.5 months. This means that current Russian losses have surpassed the staggering toll seen at that time. 

It would be valuable for all Russians to receive and understand this message, as it might reduce the appeal of the large rewards promised by Putin's administration to people living in Russia. This could weaken the country’s military capability in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams

The Russians have recently received multiple pieces of bad news. The latest, which surfaced through social media, reports that in September, Russia experienced the highest average wartime losses: 1,271 soldiers killed or wounded daily.

Additionally, also according to information from social media, the Russian army has lost the equivalent of five divisions' worth of armored equipment in the Pokrovsk area of Eastern Ukraine over the past year. This information was gathered by compiling all recorded instances of Russian equipment destruction for which there is video evidence: a total of 539 tanks and around 1,020 armored vehicles.

If losses continue at this pace, it is possible that the Russians will eventually have to abandon their gradually successful offensives in the Pokrovsk area and retreat to defensive positions.

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Another drawback for Putin comes from the Russian economy. Namely, Russia's state budget for next year includes a 12% increase, mainly due to a quarter rise in military spending from this year.

Military expenditures will amount to 6.3% of the country’s GDP. Additionally, it is likely that more military expenses have been concealed, related to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

However, Russia’s economy has not developed, as the government has simply shifted more costs onto citizens and businesses. For example, the corporate tax rate is rising from 20% to 25%, and personal taxes will become progressive. In addition, the costs of housing, services, and public transport will also be increased.

As a result, inflation is expected to accelerate to at least 5.5%. Therefore, Russia’s central bank was shocked by the budget and plans to raise the key interest rate from the current 18% to 20%, but even this is considered insufficient to keep inflation in check.

Thus, next year’s Russian budget brings three pieces of bad news: the budget growth comes solely from businesses and citizens’ pockets, despite structural balance, the budget will increase inflation, and there is no end in sight to the negative trends as the invasion continues.

However, it remains to be seen how all of this will ultimately affect Putin's army's ability to wage war in Ukraine. The possible loss of its fighting ability would be really bad news for Vladimir Putin and his imperialistic dreams.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine
Putin Set a Goal — Failure Would Be an Embarrassment
Turning Points in the War in Ukraine and the West's Responsibility

Russian Tax Overhaul: Citizens to Bear the Burden of War Losses

A recent news report indicated that Russia's war in Ukraine will increasingly impact the wallets of its citizens. This is because President Vladimir Putin has been forced to overhaul taxes to finance his country's army, which has suffered significant material losses.

In total, Russian citizens will have to pay an additional 27 million euros in new taxes. This burden will be distributed according to people's wealth, with the wealthiest bearing a greater relative share. In other words, the previous flat tax system will change to a progressive one.

It remains to be seen how Russians will react to the reform. It would, of course, be desirable for them to reject it and launch widespread rebellion against the pointless war in Ukraine and the man who started it, Vladimir Putin.

This possibility is supported by the fact that tax increases have often sparked popular uprisings. For example, this was the case in Finland at the end of the 16th century and this year in Kenya, where the government has been increasingly pressured.

On the other hand, Putin's administration has taken a page from Stalin's book and keeps the country's citizens in fear and strict obedience. Therefore, any possible dissatisfaction among the people might remain at the level of grumbling—just as the lamentation of the families of the over half a million Russian casualties in Ukraine has.

Nevertheless, Ukrainians should not lose hope. There is always a limit to what people will endure from their leaders. Thus, it is possible that the newly decided tax increases are the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Ukraine can and will stop Putin
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine
History of Finland III: The legal and economic weakening of the position of the people

Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen

Russia's successful offensive, particularly in ammunition-strapped Ukraine, is now at a critical juncture after the Americans finally provided Ukraine with an aid package. Therefore, it is a good time to review what the Finns and others think about the situation.

According to a recent survey, the majority of Finns are willing to take on EU joint debt or even increase EU membership fees to support Ukraine. It seems that the descendants of the heroes of the Winter War remember very well the plight of a country left alone against a superpower and do not want history to repeat itself.

Belgium, on the other hand, has promised to supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighter jets. Thus, the nation crushed by the Nazis in 1940 is also offering its support to President Zelensky's army.

Ukraine has halted Russia's advance in the Kharkiv region, and Russian forces have turned to the defensive in the area. It remains to be seen whether they will succeed or lose the territory gained with the blood of their soldiers right away.

As a result of its aggression, Russia has lost over half a million soldiers, both dead and wounded, during the offensive war started two years ago. This number is large and exceeds the losses suffered by the Russians during the three months of the Winter War of 1939-40 by about one third.

The essential thing in all of this is that the Western countries do not allow Russia to benefit in any way from its aggression. Instead, it must be ensured that Vladimir Putin learns he does not lead a military superpower, but rather a technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Putin's understanding and the battle between the gods
A woman's logic, Putin's test, and the Netherlands' change
The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers

The procrastination of Western countries is paid for with the blood of soldiers

Russia has recently achieved success in the ammunition-starved Ukraine. News reports indicating the increasing success of Putin's army day by day suggest that even the rapid collapse of Ukrainian defense is possible.

Three factors have enabled this development. One is the procrastination of the Trumpian House of Representatives in sending new aid packages. Second is the irresponsible defense policy of most EU countries in recent years, resulting in depleted weapon and ammunition stocks. And - as we know - it's hard to make something out of nothing. Additionally, behind it all is the Ukrainian government's inability to mobilize enough men to the front lines.

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Apparently, French President Emmanuel Macron has understood that the situation in Ukraine is currently completely untenable, as he even raised the issue of sending Western troops to assist Zelensky's army. This would undoubtedly mean facing Western casualties and Russian counter-reactions in one way or another.

Western populations are by no means prepared for returning filled coffins. And their home fronts will not withstand large-scale losses. Therefore, Macron's proposal did not receive immediate support from Finland or other Western countries either.

The future commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, on the other hand, suggested granting Ukraine permission to use Western weapons also on Russian soil. This is because Estonians have learned from their history that "when Russia attacks, the war must be taken to its territory. Otherwise, we will lose it. This rule still applies."

Behind both proposals likely lies the idea of not only direct military impact but also of undermining the Russian home front. In other words, the clearer the war is visible to Russians, the more resistance is likely to arise against Putin's administration's war policies. And the more difficult position the country's dictator finds himself in domestically.

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It's quite clear in this situation that Ukraine's army will collapse for sure unless it receives swift material aid from the West. Loss is also certain in the longer term if a vast number of capable Ukrainian men or women are not urgently called up and trained into Zelensky's army.

In this context, it's also worth noting that every recapture of a village surrendered to the aggressor seems to demand a massive human sacrifice in Ukraine, with fallen soldiers. Therefore, the Western countries' incapacity for effective aid to Ukraine will, in the best-case scenario, demand the lives of tens of thousands, or - if the situation persists - even hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

It's justified to say, therefore, that the delay of Western countries will be paid for with the blood of soldiers. First in Ukraine and - if Putin ultimately wins the war - later most likely also in the militarily weaker Russian border states. And eventually, possibly even in Finland.

The original thought in Finnish:
Länsimaiden viivyttely maksetaan sotilaiden verellä

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Polish Minister for Foreign Affairs reminded Russians about their nightmare
Desperate cry of Russians
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike

Desperate cry of Russians

The war between Russia and Ukraine is currently in an interesting phase. Russia has managed to advance on some fronts, but at the same time, it has suffered a significant loss of personnel.

According to a recent Finnish assessment, Russia has suffered tens of thousands of casualties, including both dead and wounded, on the Andrivka front, along with a substantial loss of military equipment. In addition to this, Ukrainians have successfully destroyed a large warship and five fighter jets.

At the same time, the Putin government is definitively losing credibility among Russian citizens, as only one in four Russians now believes in the news reported by media under its control. In contrast, Ukrainians' belief in the victory of their country remains high.

In this situation, Russia's large-scale missile attack on Ukrainian civilian targets is better understood as a sign of desperation rather than a show of strength. Therefore, it is even more crucial for Western countries to continue their military support to Ukraine so that the war achieves an inevitable outcome where Russia is forced to withdraw from Ukrainian soil, and its current administration is ousted through some form of coup.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finnish general praised the Ukrainian air strike
Is French military history repeating itself in Ukraine?
Victims of Russian leaders