Russia’s Spring Offensive: Gains Unclear, Losses Undeniable

Russia’s “three-day special operation” came close to us Finns two days ago, when Ukrainians caused destruction at the port of Koivisto (Primorsk in Russian) on the Karelian Isthmus. Otherwise, however, the war in Ukraine has in recent weeks been overshadowed—even in Finnish media—by the war being fought in Iran.

That is why it was interesting to note that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russia has intensified its ground assaults over the past week—effectively launching what has already become its traditional spring offensive.

According to him, this is reflected in the number of Russian attacks: over the course of four days, there were as many as 619 attacks across different parts of the front.

Even before these assaults, Russia’s military leadership had increased its heavy equipment and ordered its troops to move to the front line. As a result, tens of thousands of soldiers took part in the attacks.

* * *

However, not everything has gone like clockwork in recent days. According to Ukraine’s military leadership, more than 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in just four days—an average of about 1,520 casualties per day.

This means that Russians are now dying faster than they can be recruited. Thus, Ukraine’s military leadership estimates that Russia will not be able to sustain large-scale offensives like those seen now for very long.

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This assessment can be examined, for example, in light of the losses suffered by the Red Army during the Winter War. At that time, over a period of 105 days, Stalin’s army suffered daily losses ranging—depending on the source—between 1,500 and 3,000 casualties. That is to say, on the same level as or higher than those seen in Ukraine during the four days mentioned above.

In other words, Stalin’s brutal regime was able to continue its war for over three months despite horrific losses, even though it only managed to occupy a small part of Finland. In the peace negotiations, however, they gained more, and Finland lost over ten percent of its territory.

* * *

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s dictatorship can send its citizens to their deaths in Ukraine at the same pace as Stalin’s regime did in Finland in 1939–40. At the very least, Putin faces pressure to do so, as Russian authorities have already set expectations for their citizens in domestic messaging.

For example, it was stated in the Russian Duma on March 23 that all wars have casualties, but Russian forces are trying to minimize losses by advancing “at a calm pace” toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The speed of that pace, however, remains a mystery.

In any case, the reality is that this spring, before advancing “at a calm pace,” Russian forces must first be able to regain control of the areas that Ukraine has retaken in recent weeks—and that will not happen without heavy losses, perhaps not at all.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Concern About the Future Is Growing in Russia
Why Should Ukraine Trust Donald Trump After Being Let Down by Barack Obama?
Ukrainian and Finnish Cases of Desertion

A Lesson for the Chinese: Never Trust the Russians

The Kyiv Independent reported on Chinese nationals who fought for Russia against Ukraine – and were subsequently captured. According to them, they had voluntarily enlisted in the Russian army.

One of them explained that a recruiter had told him that a Chinese person joining the Russian military could earn 200,000–250,000 Russian rubles per month (about €2,100–2,600), which is more than the average wage in China. The recruiter also promised to pay for his travel to Russia and help him obtain the necessary documents.

The Chinese man didn’t know any Russians personally, so he believed the promises. Instead of receiving the promised income, however, the Russians confiscated his bank card and phone, leaving him unable to access his earnings. He also reported that he had been targeted by Russian “chemical weapons” right after being captured by Ukrainian soldiers.

In the end, it was the Ukrainians who saved his life and have treated both captured men well ever since. As a result, they sent a message to their fellow countrymen, saying that everything they had heard from the Russians was a lie. It turned out that Russia wasn’t as strong, and Ukraine wasn’t as weak as they had been told. Therefore, it’s better not to take part in any wars at all.

Hopefully, Chinese citizens will take the message from these prisoners seriously and avoid being lured into Putin’s army by Russia’s empty promises. At best, one might come out of it alive — but even that is unlikely.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Number of Predators is Increasing in Russia
Massive Blow to Russian Artillery: Ukraine Claims 1,644 Pieces Destroyed in March
Russian Fake News vs. Reality

Anyone Who Hired Steve Witkoff Should Be Fired for Incompetence

What should one think about the fact that Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, couldn't remember in Tucker Carlson's podcast episode which regions Russia has occupied from Ukraine? And that he claimed the residents of the occupied areas want to be part of Russia.

And I'm not talking about Steve Witkoff—an idiot is an idiot—but rather the person who recruited him for the job. The one who entrusted him with a task that will impact global security for years to come.

That being said, if I had hired someone as intelligent and knowledgeable as Witkoff apparently is, I would have been fired by my employer long ago. Unfortunately, it seems that those in leadership positions in the United States are not held to the same level of accountability for their actions.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Trump's Indecision Benefits Putin – Deadly Consequences for Ukraine
Donald Trump’s Reliability as an Ally Has Proven to Be Questionable
Donald Trump Has Unleashed a Dangerous Development

Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?

In Finland, one common question surrounding the war between Ukraine and Russia has been why Ukraine has not declared a general mobilization, despite having too few men on the front lines. However, this perspective is somewhat too Finnish.

This is because mobilization is only useful if the summoned forces have received military training. In Finland, this is not a problem, as men are subject to universal conscription, and women can receive military training if they wish.

In Ukraine, however, there is no universal conscription, so a general mobilization alone would not be of any benefit. Instead, it would be wise for Ukrainians — and it would have been wise long ago — to start training both men and women as soldiers.

Secondly, soldiers need to have proper equipment to be effective. This has apparently not been the case for Ukraine, which is why mobilization has not been timely — nor have Ukrainians been hunters in the same way as Finnish soldiers during the Winter War, who were able to bring their own clothing and other "Model Cajander" supplies and, at least in the case of those in the Civil Guard, their own rifles.

* * *

However, the situation has now changed, as it was yesterday reported that Ukraine intends to expand its army by 160,000 soldiers. The recruitment of new soldiers is planned to take place over the next three months, and if successful, the recruits will apparently be given some form of military training and necessary equipment.

On paper, 160,000 soldiers is a considerable force. For comparison, the wartime strength of the Finnish army is 280,000 combatants, so Ukraine’s additional recruitment could potentially be equivalent to more than half of Finland’s wartime forces.

However, it remains to be seen whether recruitment will succeed. And if it does, what will the fighting capability of these new Ukrainian forces be?

In this regard, the composition of the forces is crucial — in other words, will Ukrainians succeed in recruiting motivated, fit, and healthy individuals, or more or less problematic ones? Secondly, it’s essential to remember that the quality of the training provided will significantly impact the forces' ability to carry out their assigned tasks.

Thirdly, it’s worth noting that even a well-prepared military unit is not fully ready before its first battle. It needs what is known as a successful baptism by fire, during which the soldiers overcome their natural fear and maintain their operational capability in a situation where the danger of death is immediate due to the enemy.

A fourth critical factor is equipping the recruited soldiers. That is, can Ukraine, in its current situation, ensure its forces’ weaponry and supply so that they can operate effectively under the enemy’s constant pressure? My esteemed reader might recall the Ukrainians’ past complaints about shortages of arms supplies.

If — and when — Ukraine successfully navigates all the challenges mentioned above, their decision may indeed lead to a significant shift in the battle situation. This could mean putting the Russian army on the defensive or even driving it into a cycle of defeat.

Of course, this is to be hoped for, but it’s still too early to jump to conclusions. We must wait and see how well Ukraine manages to strengthen its forces.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat
Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine

Attitudes towards immigrants are not becoming more positive in Western countries

If you follow the European media, one could imagine that racism in Europe - and thus also in Finland - would be terrible, yet gradually disappearing. Therefore, it was interesting to read a study that examined changes related to race and ethnic discrimination in hiring practices across six European and North American countries.

These countries were Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and the United States. The data included all available discrimination assessments from 90 recruitment experiments conducted in various fields, covering over 170,000 job applications.

However, the time periods covered in the study varied by country: for instance, experiments conducted in the United Kingdom spanned from 1969 to 2017, while in Germany, the study only included the years 1994 to 2017. Discrimination trends were analyzed in relation to four groups with different origins: Black, Asian, Latino, and individuals from the Middle East or North Africa.

The results obtained by the researchers indicated that observed discrimination during recruitment has either remained the same or slightly increased in most countries and origin groups. Three specific changes were particularly notable. The first change was an increase in recruitment discrimination against individuals from the Middle East and North Africa, from the 1990s to the 2000s. The second significant finding was a reduction in discrimination in France, but only from extremely high levels to "only" high levels. The third change was that discrimination had increased over time in the Netherlands.

All of this suggests that the often stated claim of decreasing discrimination due to increased interactions with immigrants is not true. On the contrary, discrimination had not decreased in the past decades in five out of the six Western countries examined in the study - and most likely not in Finland either.

This raises the question of why it often appears that attitudes towards immigrants in Finland are most positive in large immigrant-rich cities, according to surveys, and more negative in rural areas where immigrants are scarcely present. Is this a case of urban residents simply misleading surveyors, or perhaps their conformity, the tendency to adapt to others' opinions - or at least perceived opinions?

Such perception might be due, especially, to the way our press tends to report on anything related to immigration in an overly positive light and, on the other hand, remain silent about its negative aspects. Additionally, the rural population might be influenced by the fact that there are hardly any immigrants there, so there hasn't been much interest or need to pay attention to press propaganda. The pressure to conform - or to lie in survey studies - hasn't arisen nearly to the same extent as it has among city dwellers.

On the other hand, recruitment is an action that measures people's real attitudes, and there's no room for conformity, as the success of the company or hiring leadership directly depends on the hired individual. Therefore, it is a much more reliable gauge of people's attitudes towards immigrants compared to survey studies.

The original blog in Finnish:
Suhtautuminen maahanmuuttajiin ei ole muuttumassa positiivisemmaksi länsimaissa

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
"Woke" pushes American science academies to favor women in their membership selections
Racism or self-preservation instinct?
People with Middle Eastern and North African inheritance identify themselves as non-Whites

International Master´s degree is an opportunity to be used

A total of  5 649 students from 142 countries applied for the international master´s programs of the Helsinki University. One fifth of them was accepted. 

This mass of young talented people could be a treasure. If their best portion would be hired by Finnish companies - once they have finished their master´s degrees - to strengthen their international readiness or to increase creative thinking in any aspect, it could add considerably to the success of Finnish economy. 

Unfortunately, it happens all too often that international students use Finnish universities only to gain a degree from a recognized western university, and continue to build a professional career elsewhere, especially in North America. Therefore I do encourage Finnish companies to familiarize themselves with the international programs of the universities, and to look for the best talents for recruitment on topics, where international background would be beneficial. 

The fact is, that in taxpayer´s view - who pay for most of the costs of universities - the only justification of educating foreign students is the benefit for the whole society. And therefore universities and companies should be active in finding ways to make profits based on the international education in our country. Otherwise we are just useful idiots.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Misuse of taxpayers´ money in Finland