Trump’s War Without Strategy: Why Iran May Come Out Stronger

I wrote in yesterday’s text that the expansion of Charlemagne’s empire "was possible because Charles was constantly at war and gave his enemies no time to recover." This came to my mind this morning when I read in the newspaper that the negotiations between Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership had come to nothing, because representatives of the latter had left the negotiation site.

However, the Americans had already received a new negotiation proposal, in which, according to Trump, Iran had "offered a lot, but not yet enough." Nor had he yet considered continuing the war.

In my view, this is foolish, because Iran’s tactics seem as if they were designed based on the history of Charlemagne’s empire. As a result—if and when it has survived the initial attack by the United States and Israel—the aim is to prolong the ongoing peace process in order to improve and develop its own military capability.

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Iran’s leadership is undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that although their army was hardly able to defend itself during last summer’s attack by the USA and Israel, it has during the current military operations been able to cause considerable destruction—especially in countries allied with the USA, but also to the U.S. Air Force. This shows that Iran’s Islamist leadership has the ability to enhance the combat capability of its own army and to survive the current attack, if given the opportunity.

It therefore remains to be seen what the final outcome of the war will be. Will it turn out to be the strengthening of Islamist Iran, rather than the rise of a more moderate government or even a democracy?

* * *

That is why it has been sad to observe that Donald Trump clearly does not know world history and its lessons, but embarked on the war recklessly, without preparing for it to become bogged down in the way now seen. If this is the case, the greatest sufferers will be Iranian women, who will be subjected even more tightly to a medieval hell and killed if necessary.

But Iranians will not be the only ones to suffer; global security will also be among the losers. Iran has, after all, been known as the most significant driving force behind Islamic terrorism.

And there is no reason to doubt that it would continue on that path—indeed even more determinedly—if the political leadership of the United States and/or its military proves incapable of carrying its attack through to completion. In other words, the outcome of the war will be exactly what it currently appears to be.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Escalating Threats—and a Touch of Irony
Iran – The End of Theocracy or the Beginning of Civil War?
Donald J. Trump 

A Timely Reminder of the Failures of Europe’s Political Leaders

Next Sunday, we will once again move the clocks forward by one hour. This was reported by Uutissuomalainen, according to which “the proposal to end clock changes is still awaiting consideration by the EU Council. Not all member states have formed their positions.”

The article also stated that “the European Commission wants to promote the abolition of the daylight saving time directive. Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism Apóstolos Tzitzikostas launched an evaluation in February to examine the EU-wide impacts of clock changes.”

The report is expected to be completed by the end of the year, the Ministry of Transport and Communications said in a press release. After that, the Commission will assess further actions.

* * *

In this respect, it is rather remarkable that this is by no means a new issue. As I myself wrote already six years ago, “perhaps an even more illustrative example of the EU’s inability to make decisions was once again highlighted last night. We still had to move the hands of the clock, even though a majority of EU citizens would like to end it and both the Commission and Parliament have already made decisions on the matter.”

And that is not all, because as much as eleven and a half years ago I could state that “studies have shown that changing the clocks is harmful overall, and therefore the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare has recommended abandoning the practice.” This has not changed over the years, as a scientific review article published last year found that “the transition to daylight saving time was associated with harmful effects ranging from reduced sleep duration and quality to increased sleepiness.”

* * *

Therefore, it is worth repeating once again the fact that this endless clock-changing farce is likely to weaken people’s faith and trust in the European Union—if it has not already made it a laughing stock. And what is worse, year after year it shows ever more clearly that this is not merely about people’s feelings but about harsh reality.

Indeed, the clock-changing farce undeniably demonstrates the shocking incompetence of our continent’s leaders, which is undoubtedly one reason why we have fallen behind the United States both economically and militarily, as the striking chart of GDP development below clearly shows.

Unfortunately, clock changes and economic problems are not the only areas in which European leaders have failed. At the same time, they have also managed to fill many member states with welfare migrants from developing countries—while the birth rate of the native population has dropped dramatically.

European politicians have also succeeded in weakening the continent’s military capability to such an extent that Russia has been able to wage its war in Ukraine for years without the EU being able to intervene. And even worse, they have encouraged the U.S. president to question the usefulness of NATO—developments that could ultimately lead to the loss of Europe’s future and the way of life of its people.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
EU Carbon Sink Policy Lacks Cost-Effectiveness
Is the EU a Real Player in World Politics—or Just a Paper Tiger?
Changing the Clocks Reduces Trust in the European Union

Is Hamas Running Out of Intelligent Leaders?

In my piece – written in Finnish – last year I was right in guessing that Israel has decided to eliminate Hamas leaders whenever possible. This time it was the turn of the head responsible for weapons production in the organization’s military wing.

It remains to be seen whether the Jewish state will succeed in withering the organization through this strategy. One would nevertheless assume that even if it fails to do so quantitatively, it would achieve results at least qualitatively. It is obvious that if and when assuming leadership positions in Hamas has turned into a death trap—rather than a path to ordinary enrichment—only the most thick-headed fanatics would seek them.

If I am right, this means a rapid decline in Hamas and its terrorist capabilities. And as a consequence, in the longer term—perhaps—also a decline in the organization’s popularity among ordinary Palestinians.

Thus the question is whether the logic I am applying from a Western frame of reference is correct. Or is the Muslim worldview so different that what I have written above does not apply?

In the latter case, Hamas will continue to succeed in attracting intelligent people to its leadership. If so, it leaves us Westerners to ponder what this says about Palestinians and their intellectual capacities.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Finland’s Foreign Minister Explained Why the States That Have Recognized Palestine Are Well-Meaning Fools
Optimism and Reality of the Gaza Peace Proposal
An Unexpected Endorsement of Professor’s Views

Over a Hundred Child Abusers Caught, and the Far-Left's Paavo Arhinmäki Gains Followers in Finland

The internet-related sexual crimes investigation unit operating at the police station in Turku, Finland, has uncovered, during its operation, over one hundred individuals suspected of luring one or more children on social media into sexual activities and of paying for sexual services from minors during the years 2021–2022.

The majority of the uncovered crimes are sexual offenses, including the sexual abuse of children and sexual acts against children, both in their basic and aggravated forms. These acts have occurred both on social media and in the real world. In addition to sexual offenses, cases of domestic violence, drug crimes, and firearms offenses have also come to light.

Some of the suspects have prior sexual offense records, but the majority either have no criminal history or no history of sexual offenses. The suspects come from diverse backgrounds and represent all social classes.

Furthermore, police searches have revealed approximately 300 new suspected crimes that were previously unknown to law enforcement. The investigation of these offenses is ongoing at various police departments, and the number is expected to rise further.

It remains to be seen how extensive this case will ultimately become. However, it is already clear that Finland, once considered a safe haven, is no longer as secure, as the threat posed by mentally disturbed pedophiles has become an increasingly significant risk, even for children.

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Of course, children themselves are also capable of doing foolish things. In the small Finnish town of Pargas, three so-called graffiti and tag painters have been caught. They are all under 15 years of age.

Among their tags was the acronym FTP, meaning "Fuck the Police." This hardly demonstrates a great deal of respect for societal order and safety on the part of the perpetrators.

The police have documented a total of 33 vandalized targets. These include the walls, doors, windows, and fences of both public and private buildings, defaced with spray paint and markers. As a result, the individuals, businesses, and the town of Pargas that suffered damages from the teens' vandalism can claim compensation for their losses from the young painters. Time will tell whether this teaches them anything.

However, less attention has been paid to the fact that Helsinki's far-left Deputy Mayor, then 47-year-old Paavo Arhinmäki, was caught last year engaging in a similar act of vandalism to that of the teens now held accountable. Nor has it been widely discussed whether Arhinmäki served as a kind of role model for them or if the Deputy Mayor is quite pleased to see that his senseless behavior has gained followers.

All of this is particularly interesting because the Left Alliance has nominated Paavo Arhinmäki as their candidate for the Helsinki mayoral race. In other words, they consider him capable of leading Finland’s largest city. 

But could this be a misjudgment? And if so, what does that say about the Left Alliance itself?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Homosexual Rape Underscores the Need for Change in Immigration Policy
The UK Prime Minister Took a One-Sided Stance on the Country's Protests
Competence of the political left

All Russians Should Be Informed of the Staggering Losses of Putin’s Army in Ukraine

Based on open data, the BBC, together with the publication Mediazona and a team of volunteers, has identified the names of 78,329 Russian soldiers who have died in Ukraine over the past two years. The growth rate of confirmed deaths is currently at its highest since the beginning of the war. The figures for September, October, and November exceed those of last year by one and a half times, and the 2022 figures by more than double.

The increase in losses may result from offensive operations by Russian forces in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, such as the assault on Vuhledar, which was captured by early October, and the assault on Pokrovsk, where fighting on the outskirts continues.

Other possible reasons include the gradual confirmation of Russian losses in Russia’s Kursk region or the aftermath of the summer offensive campaign. The rise in reports of fatalities could also be due to a combination of these factors.

The highest number of losses is among volunteers—those who signed contracts after the full-scale invasion began. Their share of total confirmed losses continues to grow, with confirmed deaths of 16,551 volunteers, accounting for 23% of the total confirmed Russian losses.

In addition to fatalities, many Russians have also been injured. Including these, the total losses for the aggressor rise to approximately 720,000 soldiers.

These figures can be compared to Soviet troop losses in Finland’s Winter War (November 30, 1939 – March 13, 1940), often likened to the war in Ukraine. In that conflict, as many as 126,875 Soviet soldiers were killed, with total losses—including the wounded—reaching around 350,000 soldiers in just 4.5 months. This means that current Russian losses have surpassed the staggering toll seen at that time. 

It would be valuable for all Russians to receive and understand this message, as it might reduce the appeal of the large rewards promised by Putin's administration to people living in Russia. This could weaken the country’s military capability in Ukraine.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Will Trump Push Ukraine Toward Peace by Breaking U.S. Promise?
From Finland to Olaf Scholz: The Imperative of Supporting Ukraine's Independence instead of its Finlandization
Ukraine’s Situation Mirrors Finland in 1944

Ukraine Plans to Recruit 160,000 Soldiers, but Will It Turn the Tide of the War?

In Finland, one common question surrounding the war between Ukraine and Russia has been why Ukraine has not declared a general mobilization, despite having too few men on the front lines. However, this perspective is somewhat too Finnish.

This is because mobilization is only useful if the summoned forces have received military training. In Finland, this is not a problem, as men are subject to universal conscription, and women can receive military training if they wish.

In Ukraine, however, there is no universal conscription, so a general mobilization alone would not be of any benefit. Instead, it would be wise for Ukrainians — and it would have been wise long ago — to start training both men and women as soldiers.

Secondly, soldiers need to have proper equipment to be effective. This has apparently not been the case for Ukraine, which is why mobilization has not been timely — nor have Ukrainians been hunters in the same way as Finnish soldiers during the Winter War, who were able to bring their own clothing and other "Model Cajander" supplies and, at least in the case of those in the Civil Guard, their own rifles.

* * *

However, the situation has now changed, as it was yesterday reported that Ukraine intends to expand its army by 160,000 soldiers. The recruitment of new soldiers is planned to take place over the next three months, and if successful, the recruits will apparently be given some form of military training and necessary equipment.

On paper, 160,000 soldiers is a considerable force. For comparison, the wartime strength of the Finnish army is 280,000 combatants, so Ukraine’s additional recruitment could potentially be equivalent to more than half of Finland’s wartime forces.

However, it remains to be seen whether recruitment will succeed. And if it does, what will the fighting capability of these new Ukrainian forces be?

In this regard, the composition of the forces is crucial — in other words, will Ukrainians succeed in recruiting motivated, fit, and healthy individuals, or more or less problematic ones? Secondly, it’s essential to remember that the quality of the training provided will significantly impact the forces' ability to carry out their assigned tasks.

Thirdly, it’s worth noting that even a well-prepared military unit is not fully ready before its first battle. It needs what is known as a successful baptism by fire, during which the soldiers overcome their natural fear and maintain their operational capability in a situation where the danger of death is immediate due to the enemy.

A fourth critical factor is equipping the recruited soldiers. That is, can Ukraine, in its current situation, ensure its forces’ weaponry and supply so that they can operate effectively under the enemy’s constant pressure? My esteemed reader might recall the Ukrainians’ past complaints about shortages of arms supplies.

If — and when — Ukraine successfully navigates all the challenges mentioned above, their decision may indeed lead to a significant shift in the battle situation. This could mean putting the Russian army on the defensive or even driving it into a cycle of defeat.

Of course, this is to be hoped for, but it’s still too early to jump to conclusions. We must wait and see how well Ukraine manages to strengthen its forces.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Western Countries Must Stay United Against the Russian Threat
Bad News for Vladimir Putin and His Imperialistic Dreams
General Pekka Toveri, the Chair of the European Parliament's Delegation for Ukraine

What Does the Failure of Hezbollah's Attack Tell Us?

The terrorist organization Hezbollah planned to send 6,000 long-range rockets and drones to Israel. Israeli intelligence apparently uncovered the organization's intentions, resulting in the Israeli Air Force conducting a preemptive strike.

As a result, Hezbollah was able to launch only 320 rockets and drones, most of which were destroyed by Israel's air defense. The outcome was therefore entirely expected.

Expected because there are no intelligent people in Hezbollah's ranks. Instead, there are hordes of fanatical Muslims who, at best, are only capable of making themselves a laughingstock. And that’s exactly what the outcome of the operation showed!

At the same time, they demonstrated that Iran also has no real capability to harm Israel in any significant way. And despite recent bluster, Iran is not going to carry out a major attack against the Jewish state.

Or if they do, it will only prove that they are some kind of monkeys, with no understanding of their own capabilities. But could anyone expect anything different from the leadership of a country whose ideology is fundamentalist Islam?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A Muslim Woman's Lack of Solidarity with Iranian Women
The End of the Holy Soldier of the Arabs
Religious authority and the Iran strike on Israel

Ukrainian Offensive Encircles Russian Forces, Echoes of Past Defeats

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region and its western surroundings is encircling a large Russian army behind the Seim River. According to recent reports, this force is rather inexperienced and poorly motivated, with no intention of fighting against the Ukrainians.

This would, of course, be a bitter blow to Vladimir Putin and the Russian military leadership, who have repeatedly boasted about their army's great capabilities. If it turns out that Putin and the war leadership are unable to save the unwilling Russian soldiers and they refuse to fight, both will become laughingstocks in the eyes of the world.

What makes this situation particularly interesting is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians likely remember the Battle of Raate Road during Finland’s Winter War. There, Finnish soldiers managed to encircle and destroy units that were twice as strong, primarily consisting of Russians and Ukrainians.

According to Soviet sources, the final outcome was 1,001 enemy soldiers killed, 1,430 wounded, 2,243 missing, and 82 frostbitten, in addition to 1,100 prisoners of war captured by the Finns and a huge amount of weapons and other military equipment. On the Finnish side, around 402 soldiers were killed or went missing, and 618 were wounded.

One can hope that the Ukrainians have learned from the Battle of Raate Road and that the Russians are aware of the enormous losses their compatriots suffered back then. Ultimately, perhaps this battle will also turn out to be one where Russia must admit it is incapable of completing Putin's special operation and will refuse to carry out the orders of a leader who has become a laughingstock.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
What’s the Issue With Russians?
Ukraine Gives Kursk Residents a Clear Choice: Russia or Refuge
Finns Feel Sympathy for Ukrainians Because They Share a Similar Experience

Finnish military intelligence: the Russian army is at the limits of its operational capability

Finnish military intelligence has reported that Russia has relocated about 80 percent of the troops near the Finnish border to other areas, specifically to Ukraine. This particularly concerns ground forces, where, in addition to personnel, the remaining equipment shows signs of obsolescence.

The same is most likely happening in other military bases across Russia. Therefore, even if the ongoing war in Ukraine were to end at this moment, it would take several years for the Russian army to regain its previous level of combat capability.

This indicates that Vladimir Putin's army is at the limits of its endurance in its invasion of Ukraine. It also means that it would not be capable of launching large-scale military operations elsewhere at this time.

This also implies that Russia currently lacks the ability to defend against a conventional military attack directed against it. This might explain why Russia has recently brought up the possibility of changing its nuclear doctrine.

From the perspective of the war in Ukraine, the weakening of the Russian army is naturally a good thing, especially now that its ground attack in the Kharkiv direction has resulted in nothing but significant personnel and equipment losses for the attacker. This does not mean that Putin will abandon his plans, but it perhaps gives hope that the operational capability of the Russians will continue to weaken on the other Ukrainian fronts as well.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Former President of Finland, Tarja Halonen, suggested that Ukraine should cede part of its territory
Finnish weapons are being tested against the Russians in Ukraine
Technically backward, miscellaneous group of gunmen

Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?

According to climate models, greenhouse gases warm the Arctic region faster than the rest of the world, although there is some discrepancy between their predictions and actual measurements. Therefore, it has been more than interesting to follow the development of the northern sea ice over the years.

The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) publishes two statistics on its development: the extent of the ice and its area. Of these, daily data is available for the extent, but only monthly averages for the area.

Now that India has suffered from an unprecedented heatwave and southern Europe has also been reported as one of the areas experiencing the most exceptional temperatures, it has been interesting to note that the latest data on the extent of the northern ice shows it is the 37th largest, or 10th smallest, for this time of year in the measurement history starting from 1979.

The monthly area statistic of the northern polar ice surprises even more, as in May, the ice area was the 23rd largest, or 24th smallest, in the statistics, thus roughly at the median value of the statistics. Therefore, the area of Arctic sea ice does not support the idea that the climate is warming fastest in the Arctic region. And even the estimate based on ice extent supports that only weakly.

All this raises questions about the ability of climate models to predict the distribution of warming caused by greenhouse gases across different parts of the globe. Or alternatively, about the reliability of climate statistics: in this regard, the measurements of the Arctic ice cover, carried out with easily interpretable methods, are surely among the most reliable, even though the two different measurement methods of the NSIDC produce surprisingly divergent views of the size of the northern polar ice cover.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January
Does Arctic sea ice melt as atmospheric greenhouse gases increase?
The increase in carbon dioxide concentration warms more than anticipated

Did the Finnish Prime Minister promise Hornet fighter jets to Ukraine?

The national TV-channel of Finland showed in their main news today Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SDP) speaking to the press, saying, "I was a bit surprised by the strong reaction it got here in certain circles at home. Perhaps this shows that elections are always around the corner. Other parties have taken some liberties, for example, putting words in my mouth that I have never said."

Of course, it is possible that someone has put words in Marin's mouth, and I will not comment on that. However, in this situation, it is important to repeat exactly what she said in Ukraine. Therefore, I will copy the central content of Marin's statement from a newspaper's article where it was published word for word.

Firstly, the Prime Minister said that "we know the schedule for our future fighter jets, how we will get them to Finland, and yes, I think we can also have a discussion about the Hornets, whether it would be possible to transfer them to Ukraine." Additionally, she stated that "Finland is in an interesting position precisely because we have made the decision on a new acquisition, and we have existing equipment and can, of course, evaluate the use of that equipment".

Based on those comments, dear reader, you can draw your own conclusions on how Marin's words are meant to be understood, and how they have been interpreted by the listeners.

In my opinion, with those words, Marin clearly and unambiguously informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people that Finland is in a position to both transfer Hornet fighter jets and is considering doing so - she even emphasized this twice.

And I can't possibly believe that Zelensky, nor his people awaiting aid, could have interpreted our Prime Minister's words in any other way. Nor do I believe that Marin intended them to be interpreted differently than how I have written.

We can only speculate on the reasons for Marin's statement. Perhaps she acted in good faith and genuinely wanted to transfer Finnish fighter planes to a people in dire straits. And perhaps she wanted to initiate a discussion on the matter domestically.

Or perhaps she has become fond of the immense admiration she has received worldwide for repeatedly taking a strong stance in support of Ukraine during the ongoing war. And maybe she thought that her interview in the midst of the war would generate more of the same - who among us hasn't enjoyed those moments in life when we have basked in someone else's expressed admiration.

The third option could be that Sanna Marin acted as the leader of the Social Democratic Party and believed that the strong support of Finns for the Ukrainian people could help her party win the elections in early April, if she promised that Finland would help where larger Western countries have hesitated. And thereby she could even get a second term as the country's most influential politician, that is, as the Prime Minister.

The situation becomes tragically comical by the fact that we don't really have anything to offer Ukraine. The Finnish Hornets will be used up in the Finnish Air Force and therefore wouldn't be of much use in Ukraine's fight against the Russians.

Former commander of the Finnish Defense Forces, General Jarmo Lindberg, tweeted about this, stating that "any retired aircraft has very few years left if everything goes according to plan. In addition, the spare parts inventory is of course being depleted, as there will be no need for parts in the future. Permission must be obtained from the USA for further use, but there is no remaining lifespan."

Unfortunately, I have to admit that while Marin gained great popularity with her internationally noticed appearance and convincing performances during the pandemic, her later period as the destroyer of national wealth and party princess has eroded my perception of her ability as Prime Minister. And this recent fighter jet opening certainly doesn't help - and I say this without any sugarcoating.

The original blogpost in Finnish: Sanasta Sannaa ja sarvesta miestä

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
A gift from the free world to Ukraine
Independence day of Finland now and 83 years ago
Finland after the Russian war in Ukraine