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Showing posts with label reliability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reliability. Show all posts

5 March 2025

Donald Trump’s Reliability as an Ally Has Proven to Be Questionable

According to Financial Times, the U.S. will stop providing Ukraine with intelligence support. This comes at a time when the Ukrainian Army is once again gaining the upper hand in the war against Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine has just expressed gratitude to Trump and announced that it will sign a mineral agreement.

This strongly supports the idea that the Russian government has some means of blackmailing Trump. Whether it’s compromising erotic video material or something else—I don’t know—but either way, Trump's position as Vladimir Putin’s pocket rat seems increasingly obvious.

That’s why Ukrainians and Europeans must now, at the very latest, ask whether there is any motivation behind Trump’s actions other than attempting to influence the war in a way that allows Putin to get what he wants—ultimately leading to Ukraine losing its independence. Or at the very least, turning into a Russian puppet state like Belarus.

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Many Finns would prefer that we refrain from criticizing Trump’s actions, while many others would like us to return to the era of Finlandization, when Finns did everything they could to avoid provoking the eastern superpower.

However, the Finnish government has taken a clear stance: we aim to support Ukraine in its war. The reasons for this are both the moral obligation to stand by a country that has been subjected to an illegal invasion and the fear that a Russian victory in Ukraine could lead to an attack on other neighboring states—including Finland.

Of course, Finland’s NATO membership alleviates some of this fear, as it ensures U.S. and other allies’ support in the event of an attack. But if the U.S. government is in Putin’s pocket, the situation looks entirely different. In that case, can Finland truly rely on U.S. assistance when it matters most?

In this regard, there is one crucial point that not all Finns have grasped: Russia is not actually competing with the U.S. for global dominance—China is. It may be that Trump wants to get the Ukraine issue off his hands as quickly as possible to focus on China, even if he isn’t directly controlled by Putin.

For Finland, this means that the only even somewhat reliable support against Russia will come from Europe—especially the Nordic countries—whose military capabilities, however, have been allowed to deteriorate almost completely. That is why Finland must be highly proactive in pushing for European rearmament. And fortunately, the Finnish government has recently been doing exactly that.

11 June 2024

Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?

According to climate models, greenhouse gases warm the Arctic region faster than the rest of the world, although there is some discrepancy between their predictions and actual measurements. Therefore, it has been more than interesting to follow the development of the northern sea ice over the years.

The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) publishes two statistics on its development: the extent of the ice and its area. Of these, daily data is available for the extent, but only monthly averages for the area.

Now that India has suffered from an unprecedented heatwave and southern Europe has also been reported as one of the areas experiencing the most exceptional temperatures, it has been interesting to note that the latest data on the extent of the northern ice shows it is the 37th largest, or 10th smallest, for this time of year in the measurement history starting from 1979.

The monthly area statistic of the northern polar ice surprises even more, as in May, the ice area was the 23rd largest, or 24th smallest, in the statistics, thus roughly at the median value of the statistics. Therefore, the area of Arctic sea ice does not support the idea that the climate is warming fastest in the Arctic region. And even the estimate based on ice extent supports that only weakly.

All this raises questions about the ability of climate models to predict the distribution of warming caused by greenhouse gases across different parts of the globe. Or alternatively, about the reliability of climate statistics: in this regard, the measurements of the Arctic ice cover, carried out with easily interpretable methods, are surely among the most reliable, even though the two different measurement methods of the NSIDC produce surprisingly divergent views of the size of the northern polar ice cover.