EU Carbon Sink Policy Lacks Cost-Effectiveness

Norwegian researchers Maarit Kallio and Elias Garvik published a study on the carbon sink policy of the EU and Norway (hereafter Europe), in which achieving forest sink targets would require an immediate and steep reduction in roundwood harvesting in Europe. This reduction could amount to 113–117 million cubic meters in the years 2030–2035 compared to a market-driven scenario, meaning that the costs of emission reductions would rise to more than €700 per tonne of carbon dioxide.

According to the researchers, this would simultaneously result in roughly two-thirds of Europe’s reduction in harvesting being offset by increased tree felling elsewhere in the world, particularly in North America, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Chile. In other words, restricting forest harvesting would ultimately lead to a massive transfer of income from Europe to the rest of the world without delivering significant climate benefits.

In addition, the researchers found that although harvesting restrictions would increase forest carbon sinks, their overall impact on the climate would remain limited because the climate benefits of wood products would simultaneously be lost. At the same time, economic activity in our continent would decline and significant income transfers to outside Europe would occur.

Thus, the cost per tonne of emissions saved—due to the economic burden placed on Europeans—would be many times higher than the prices used in the European Emissions Trading System.

This simply means that, in its current form, Europe’s carbon sink policy is not a cost-effective mitigation measure compared to other available options. Europe should therefore promptly abandon its current—naïve and ineffective—carbon sink policy, as it is simply irrational.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The EU Needs Innovations That Drive Climate Neutrality
Misleading Claims About European Forests
History of Finland VI: Age of freedom and utility

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuoreen tutkimuksen mukaan EU:n hiilinielupolitiikka on järjetöntä

Are Coral Reefs Doomed Within the Next Few Years?

A recent science news report stated that, according to a study signed by 160 researchers, the destruction of coral reefs is now almost certainly irreversible. The report says that most coral reefs will die once global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

At present, the climate has warmed by 1.4 degrees, according to scientists, which means that the temperature leading to the irreversible collapse of reefs is expected to be reached within the next few years. When that happens, for example, the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica are likely to collapse.

And that’s not all — according to the lead author of the report, Tim Lenton, one of the tipping points involves the collapse of existing ocean currents, which would have catastrophic consequences. If this were to occur in the ocean circulation system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), it would disrupt the global climate and, among other effects, cool the winters of Finland and the rest of Europe.

* * *

I wanted to highlight this topic because the report provides a clear prediction — one that will be fascinating, if admittedly frightening, to follow in the coming years. It’s especially intriguing because the timeframe mentioned is “in the next few years,” which to my ears sounds more like less than ten years rather than more. At the very least, it doesn’t imply waiting several decades, as shown by the chart published a couple of years ago by the University of Berkeley, which I’ve copied below.

So, I’ll try to remember to follow this issue in the coming years — and to report on it here in this blog, unless I become too senile before the coral reef catastrophe actually happens.

* * *

Before that, however, it’s worth recalling a study from last year which found that coral reef restoration can accelerate the recovery of coral cover and carbonate production so rapidly that the reefs’ net carbonate budgets resemble those of healthy reefs within just four years. And this occurs under the current climate, which is already 1.4 degrees warmer than in pre-industrial times.

And that’s not all — this year another study was published showing that there are also coral reefs that are recovering. At least some can be found in the Chagos Archipelago, where coral cover on both the fore-reef and the lagoon increased by 59–67% after several years of bleaching.

It remains to be seen, however, whether this change of direction is only temporary — or whether it will prove to be permanent.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Climate Warning Signs Were There 130 Years Ago – If Only We Had Noticed
Diverging Findings in Antarctic Ice Sheet Research
Big Deal in the Cold North: Finland vs. Canada

The original blogpost in Finnish:
Tuhoutuvatko koralliriutat lähivuosina?

Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Challenge the Notion of Particularly Rapid Melting

I promised at the end of September, in my Finnish-language blog, to return to the topic of this year’s Arctic sea ice situation. At that time, it was already known—based on NSIDC’s daily measurements—that the annual minimum extent was the eleventh smallest in the history of the statistics. 

Then, at the beginning of October, the data on the average sea ice area for September was released. It appears at the endpoint of the curve below, under which only the points for the years 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 fall. Notably, this supports the view that the ice area has remained at the same level since 2007—that is, for 12 years already. The figure also clearly shows how, in September 2012, the ice area was distinctly smaller than in any other year.

This observation supports a recently published research report by Chinese scientists, according to which the phenomenon known as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifted from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s into a positive phase. As a result, the reduced heat and moisture, as well as the weakened downward longwave radiation, have led to a slowing of Arctic sea ice melting.

According to that study, however, this slowdown in melting would be only an intermediate stage, to be followed in the 2030s or 2040s by a rapid melting of northern sea ice—and subsequently, a series of environmental disasters around the world.

At this stage, of course, it is too early to take a position on that latter risk or its likelihood. Nevertheless, it can be stated that the slowdown in the melting of northern sea ice—at least for the time being—is a fact, one that seems at least partly to challenge the idea that the climate warming responsible for melting the ice is proceeding particularly rapidly in the Arctic region.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record
Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?
Correct minister, ridiculous facts

The Northern Sea Ice Area in 2024 Was Not the Smallest on Record

The year 2024 was apparently the warmest year in recorded temperature history. Therefore, I decided to examine the development of the northern sea ice area this year based on data collected by NASA's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

According to recent statistics, however, the northern polar ice defied my expectations. Its area was not the smallest on record but larger than in 2007, 2016, 2019, and 2020 as seen in the figure below. 

Additionally, its average area was not the smallest in any month of the measurement history. As I wrote earlier, in September, when the ice reaches its annual minimum area, it was the fourth smallest in recorded history.

This past December, however, the northern sea ice was the second smallest on record, so I am eagerly waiting to see what happens in January. Could it possibly shrink further than in previous years, giving hope for the opening of the Northeast Passage for maritime traffic?

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Northern Sea Ice Area Has Not Responded to Exceptionally High Temperatures
Russia Pays the Price for Its Foolishness

Reevaluating Arctic Sea Ice Melt: A Closer Look at Trends and Predictions

Can climate models predict the distribution of warming?

According to climate models, greenhouse gases warm the Arctic region faster than the rest of the world, although there is some discrepancy between their predictions and actual measurements. Therefore, it has been more than interesting to follow the development of the northern sea ice over the years.

The National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) publishes two statistics on its development: the extent of the ice and its area. Of these, daily data is available for the extent, but only monthly averages for the area.

Now that India has suffered from an unprecedented heatwave and southern Europe has also been reported as one of the areas experiencing the most exceptional temperatures, it has been interesting to note that the latest data on the extent of the northern ice shows it is the 37th largest, or 10th smallest, for this time of year in the measurement history starting from 1979.

The monthly area statistic of the northern polar ice surprises even more, as in May, the ice area was the 23rd largest, or 24th smallest, in the statistics, thus roughly at the median value of the statistics. Therefore, the area of Arctic sea ice does not support the idea that the climate is warming fastest in the Arctic region. And even the estimate based on ice extent supports that only weakly.

All this raises questions about the ability of climate models to predict the distribution of warming caused by greenhouse gases across different parts of the globe. Or alternatively, about the reliability of climate statistics: in this regard, the measurements of the Arctic ice cover, carried out with easily interpretable methods, are surely among the most reliable, even though the two different measurement methods of the NSIDC produce surprisingly divergent views of the size of the northern polar ice cover.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The area of Arctic sea ice was exceptionally large in January
Does Arctic sea ice melt as atmospheric greenhouse gases increase?
The increase in carbon dioxide concentration warms more than anticipated

Correct minister, ridiculous facts

The Finnish parliamentary elections were held last summer. As a result, the country's government switched from a red-green coalition to a political right-wing one in the summer.

Among the politicians of the previous government, Maria Ohisalo of the Greens first served as the Minister of the Interior and later as the Minister of the Environment and Climate. Therefore, it was interesting to note her criticism of the current government on messaging service X, stating that Finland's ranking had dropped by a whopping 11 places according to the latest Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) ranking.

The situation became amusing when it was revealed that the former minister had not noticed that CCPI used two-year-old data for statistics, precisely from Maria Ohisalo's ministerial term. In other words, she blamed the current government for her own achievements.

It is clear that Ohisalo made herself appear ridiculous. What is less clear, however, is why she rushed to politicize the new information before verifying its accuracy.

If this behavior was typical for Ohisalo and the previous female-led government, it is no wonder that the previous government term was, especially in terms of the economy, downright catastrophic for Finland. For example, during the four-year period (2019-2022), the state debt increased by a whopping 33 percent, leaving the budget permanently about seven percent in deficit.

Hopefully, the current government will familiarize itself better with the facts before decision-making and succeed in revitalizing Finland's economy to make it comparable again to other Nordic countries.

Previous thoughts on the same topic: Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit 175 happy winners Minister Maria Ohisalo panicked

The increase in carbon dioxide concentration warms more than anticipated

I have previously followed with great interest the progress of climate change. In doing so, I have personally observed how ground-level measurement data has been retrospectively altered in such a way that there may not be reality-based justifications, such as changes in the location of thermometer or adjustments for temperature changes due to urbanization.

Therefore, my interest has shifted mainly to monitoring the surface area of the Arctic sea ice because I find its distortion quite challenging or downright impossible. To my satisfaction, I have also noted that there have been no significant changes to these statistics.

Today I read a recent study that measured the impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on the lower atmosphere's temperature. Increasing it (CO₂) has so far been thought to have a direct effect on the global average surface air temperature.

However, this is not the case, as Haozhe He et al. found that doubling the atmospheric CO₂ concentration increases the impact of CO₂-induced growth by about a quarter. In other words, the more anthropogenic CO₂ emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, the more serious the consequences.

In essence, He et al. presented a prediction - or hypothesis - that the lower atmosphere's temperature should rise more rapidly as the climate warms. Therefore, I plan to monitor how this is reflected in the fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice area - above all, whether it begins to melt again after statistically remaining the same size for over a decade despite the increase in CO₂ concentration.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
The record-breaking warming of the oceans is not visible in the Arctic
Record low temperature in northern Finland
Arctic sea ice contradicts with the climatic model predictions, but is that changing now?

The record-breaking warming of the oceans is not visible in the Arctic

The most important newspaper of Finland, Helsingin Sanomat, took a stance in its editorial on Minister Kaj Mykkänen's (National Coalition Party) comment, according to which the key climate action in Finland is to plug factory chimneys. A couple of days ago, I also commented on this matter in Finnish, pointing out that human progress is based on science and technology – and reminding that insect infestations threaten forest carbon sinks in a warming climate.

Climate change has also been commented on by Petteri Taalas, Secretory General of the World Meteorological Organization, who says that the problems predicted by climate researchers in the Greek archipelago back in the 1980s are now becoming a reality. This led me to once again look at the development of northern sea ice extent. One might imagine it melting rapidly right now, given that the surface water of the North Atlantic is warmer than ever in recorded history.

My surprise was significant when I observed that the extent of northern sea ice on July 24th, relative to this time of year, was the tenth smallest in the statistics. The years 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were surpassed.

However, it is true that the last time I wrote about the subject in English, sea ice was 12th smallest, so its relative extent compared to recent years has decreased. On the other hand, compared to the record year 2012, the extent of northern sea ice is over five percent larger – when I wrote about it in Finnish, the difference was just under five percent – so in that respect, it has expanded rather than contracted. This could, of course, be due to the exceptional anomaly of the year 2012.

So, we'll see if the warm water from the North Atlantic finally flows to the Arctic region and begins to melt the northern sea ice. And thus, would bring closer the day – which climate researchers say is inevitably ahead – when the Arctic ice completely disappears.

Aiempia ajatuksia samasta aihepiiristä:
HS katkeroituneen naisen työkaluna

Helsingin sanomat jatkoi valheellista uutisointiaan
Nostaako El Niño maapallon keskilämpötilan uuteen ennätykseen?

Record low temperature in northern Finland

This spring has been relatively warm in Finland, as expected considering the commonly known predictions of a warming climate.

However, it is worth noting that last night in Kilpisjärvi, located in the northernmost region, the temperature reached a record low for the month of June at -7.7 degrees Celsius. This temperature was 0.7 degrees lower than the previous record set in 1962

It's important to note that this observation does not imply that climate change has been canceled. Instead, it perhaps indicates that the extent of warming is not yet very significant. One possible explanation could be that global temperatures have decreased since 2016, as indicated by satellite data.

The satellite data also aligns with measurements of the arctic sea extent, which currently show a considerable increase compared to the same time in 2012, 2016, and many other years. This hiatus has been attributed to the prolonged La Niña period and the absence of El Niño since 2016.

However, it appears that the long-awaited El Niño may be starting, which makes it extremely interesting to see whether the temperature records from the last decade will be surpassed both globally and locally in the Arctic region. Could it even be possible that next year's summer will set a new temperature record in Kilpisjärvi? 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Arctic sea ice contradicts with the climatic model predictions, but is that changing now?
Availability of coffee in a warming world
Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit

Arctic sea ice contradicts with the climatic model predictions, but is that changing now?

One of the items I am deeply interested is the development of the climatic change in the Arctic area. For that purpose, I have made statistical analyses on the dependence between the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the area of the arctic sea ice.

I published today my most recent analysis in Finnish, and decided also to write a short summary of that in English. I have also previously written a post on this topic into this blog, and recommend reading it in case you - my highly valued reader - are interested in details of this analysis. 

The idea of the analysis is simple: I am using September data (i.e. annual minimum) for arctic sea ice area of the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and carbon dioxide concentration measurements conducted in Mauna Loa. The latter ones are not available for year 2022 due to the eruption of the volcano, and therefore I had to use an estimate based on two previous measurements. The development of the concentration is given in the figure below, where the measured concentrations and estimated value are marked with blue and red color, respectively.

In the next figure I have marked the number of years after which a connection between the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and the area of the Arctic ice sheet is statistically significant in two consecutive years. In X-axis I marked the year from which each analysis series started.

The left side of the figure (yeasts 1979-2001) is according to the hypothesis, and the blue columns - i.e. number of years needed for statistical significance - are shortening from left to the right as predicted by the climatic models. However, starting from 2002 there are no consecutive two years with statistical significance, and therefore these columns are marked with red color. And their height is simply the number of data years used for each analysis. 

Thus, my analysis suggests that the prediction based on climatic models are supported by data from 1979 to 2001, but thereafter there is a strict contradiction between the models and observations. Normally such a discordance between observations and theory is used to falsify scientific hypotheses. I have, however, not seen that the such a decision would have been made or even discussed among the community of climatic researchers.

* * *

Before ending this blogpost, I would like to point out that the most recent daily measurements of the Arctic sea ice extent have shown an extremely interesting change, where the relative extent of the ice has decreased compared to previous years. As a result, right now (January 5th) the size of the Arctic sea ice is the second smallest ever measured (for the fifth day of each year) despite the fact that e.g. in 5th November it was only at 11th position. 

Therefore it will be extremely interesting to follow how the Arctic sea ice develops in this year. Will its development return back to the development predicted by the climatic change, or will the last weeks´ phenomenon turn out to be only a temporary exception caused by e.g. exceptional weather conditions in the Arctic region. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit
Heat wave in Europe contrasts with the coldness of the Arctic sea
Arctic ice sheet does not support greenhouse gases as the cause of accelerating global warming

Availability of coffee in a warming world

Most of the coffee-plants are grown in Africa, South America, south-eastern Asia and Indonesia. Despite that, more coffee is drunk in Finland than in any other country, when consumption is compared to the number of the population. Finns consume almost 10 kg of roasted coffee per person every year.

Therefore it was interesting to note that global warming may soon make it impractical for many plantations to grow the world’s most popular coffee bean, Coffea arabica. As a solution, coffee growers in Africa have seriously turned their view to a long-forgotten variety, C. liberica.

This plant was widely grown in the 1870´s, but due to its fruits being large and hard to process, the bean lost its popularity at the turn of the 20th century. Due to problems with C. arabica, Ugandan farmers have recently started to ramp up cultivation of a subspecies "excelsa" of C. liberica , which is resistant to wilt and other diseases. 

It produces excellent coffee and does not need chilly high altitudes to thrive. Therefore it seems that coffee cups can be kept full even if the planet warms as predicted. I believe this is a welcome news for the caffeine-addicts throughout the world - and especially valuated in Finland inhabited by the record holders.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Problem in berrypicking
A new route for the Ukrainian crops
Soil subsides under cities, but every cloud has a silver lining

Advice to participants of the COP27 climate implementation summit

The climate implementation summit COP27 is starting tomorrow in Egypt. I just want to remind - or advice - its participants on two facts. 

The first one has to do with the climatic change and its scientific basis itself. To do that, I remind that the mathematical models predicting a climate crisis have one clear output: that is, the arctic north of the globe will warm up more quickly than the rest of the world. 

According to that, the area of arctic sea ice can be expected to melt in an accelerating rate. However, the minimum size of the ice was observed already in 2012 - that is ten years ago - and right now its size is largest in relation to time (November 4th) since 2015. Obviously, the arctic north is not warming right now. 

So, before major decisions to restrict people´s life, I would like to see a scientific explanation - compatible to the current climate models - for these observations. Or alternatively, a new model, that predicts a hiatus for the warming of the arctic north right now.  

Second, the threat caused by the climatic change is caused by an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere due to the use of fossilized carbon sources. Therefore, if any action will be decided to stop the warming, we should rather focus on giving up on the use of fossilized carbon than to concentrate on carbon sinks, which will halt the global economy and almost certainly be used by world leaders only to lengthen the fossil-based era. 

With these two facts I wish to the participants of COP27 good luck in finding sensible decisions that - at the same time - reduce the risk of intolerable global warming and allow better life for all people in the world. 

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Fair policy will build a strong Union
Heat wave in Europe contrasts with the coldness of the Arctic sea
G-index challenges the theory of the global climatic change

Heat wave in Europe contrasts with the coldness of the Arctic sea

Exceptional temperatures have been reported during this year in many locations. During last weeks the focus has been in Europe, where exceptional temperatures were observed especially in southern part of the continent (example).  

The common theme in those news has been that the exceptional heat would have been due to the global change caused by human actions. I am not denying that, but would like to remind that previously any cold weathers have been neglected by climate scientists as climatic change is a global phenomenon and therefore local cold weathers cannot be used as evidence against global change. Therefore, it would be logical, if the same treatment would be given to warm spells. 

However, climatic science has often pointed out that the change is especially speedy in the Arctic region - actually three times as fast as the global average. Therefore I have been following the area and extent of the Arctic sea ice reported by National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Interestingly indeed, the extent of the Arctic ice is right now more wide than in any of the last 13 years at the same date (July 23). That is in accordance with my analyses of correlation between the area of the Arctic sea ice and atmospheric carbon dioxide content: there has been no statistically significant change between them since year 2002 (the link above is in Finnish, but here is an earlier blogpost in English).

Taken together, based on the local temperatures no clear picture on the global warming can be given. However, we may question the extra rapid warming of the Arctic region - and therefore also climatic models predicting that.

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
G-index challenges the theory of the global climatic change
Measurements of arctic temperatures and sea ice area agree with each other
Arctic ice sheet does not support greenhouse gases as the cause of accelerating global warming

 

G-index challenges the theory of the global climatic change

There are many kinds of estimates describing the development of the global temperature. You may follow statistics based on adjusted temperature measurements from worldwide network of stations, satellite data or - my favorite thus far - melting of arctic sea ice. 

Here I will introduce you - my respected reader - to a G-index developed by a Finnish teacher Simo Ruoho. I know, it sounds ridiculous to compare a school teacher´s achievement to those of huge scientific organisations like NASA - and that is what I thought myself, when I heard about him for the first time some half a year ago.

Now, after following his G-index thereafter, I have become highly interested due to its accuracy. During this time its prediction of the becoming global temperature has failed only once. And no, the prediction has not been changed afterwards. 

In addition, the G-index of Mr. Ruoho has also predicted amazingly well the annual mean temperature of Finland. That is, more accurately than the prediction of the governmental Finnish Meteorologial Institute. 

These evidence are impressive enough for me to share this information in this blog. However, only the accuracy of the future predictions will show, whether he has only had good luck with his index - or whether he has made a major finding on the mechanisms of the global climatic development. 

If the latter, the global atmospheric development does not follow from the carbon dioxide and other emissions due to human actions, but is driven by the exchange of energy between the oceans and atmosphere. In other words, if G-index-based predictions will hold also in the future, the current climate theory developed to explain the warming of the global climate will become falsified. That is, shown to be wrong.

As the global climatic change has a major effect on politics in the EU and elsewhere, that would probably be the greatest scoop ever. But also a sad example of scientists losing their objectivity after the big money became available for the climatic research. 

Therefore - as a professional scientist - I am not sure, should I cross my fingers for the success or failure of Simo Ruoho´s G-index. The fact, however, is that the position of my fingers does not affect the outcome. And therefore the only thing I can do now, is to continue my follow-up of his predictions and their accuracy.  

Previous thoughts on the same topic:
Measurements of arctic temperatures and sea ice area agree with each other
Arctic ice sheet does not support greenhouse gases as the cause of accelerating global warming
A scoop to be kept out of daylight